Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The soybean market in the US is oscillating and rising, lacking new guidance in the short - term. It awaits the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean market is narrowly fluctuating, affected by the US soybean trend and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans. The domestic soybean market is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybean arrivals [8][10]. - The domestic soybean meal market is oscillating and rebounding, influenced by the US soybean market and technical oscillations. The increase in imported soybean arrivals in June and the weak spot price suppress the upward space of the futures price. In the short - term, it returns to the range - bound pattern [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2940 and 3000, and the soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4100 and 4200 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The short - term China - US tariff negotiations are favorable for US soybeans, but the relatively good planting weather in the US soybean - producing areas has led to a short - term decline in the US soybean futures price. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean planting and growth, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills has also rebounded from a low level in June. The soybean and soybean meal markets have declined in the short - term due to the decline in the US soybean market [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation. Coupled with the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term weak - oscillation pattern [12]. - The low - level inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price expectation. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. The soybean meal market will maintain short - term oscillations, awaiting the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low - level inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: the total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures price, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppress the soybean price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From June 24 to July 3, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [15]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From June 25 to July 3, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal was at a discount to the futures price [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From June 23 to July 3, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed. The warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased significantly on June 27 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in the soybean meal market increased, but the funds flowed out [8]. - The main short positions in the soybean market decreased, and the funds flowed out [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: The US soybeans are oscillating and rebounding, affected by the rebound of oils and fats and technical consolidation. In the short - term, they are oscillating above the thousand - point mark, awaiting further guidance from China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic bean meal rose and then fell, influenced by US soybeans and technical consolidation. The increase in imported soybeans arriving in June and the weak spot price suppressed the rebound height of the disk. In the short - term, it returned to the range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 2920 and 2980 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The US soybeans are oscillating and rebounding. Domestic soybeans oscillated and declined, affected by the trend of US soybeans. The cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones supported the bottom of the disk, but the peak arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressed the rebound height of the disk. The A2509 contract oscillated between 4100 and 4200 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Bean Meal**: The fundamentals are neutral. The basis is at a discount, which is bearish. The inventory increased by 35.9% week - on - week and decreased by 34.32% year - on - year, which is bullish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. The long positions of the main force increased and the funds flowed out, which is bullish [8]. - **Soybeans**: The fundamentals are neutral. The basis is at a premium, which is bullish. The inventory increased by 4.37% week - on - week and 17.68% year - on - year, which is bearish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. The short positions of the main force decreased and the funds flowed out, which is bearish [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term China - US tariff negotiations are bullish for US soybeans, but the relatively good recent planting weather in the US has led to a short - term decline in the US soybean market. It is expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean planting and growth, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory recovered from a low level, and the oil mill bean meal inventory also recovered from a low level in June. The beans oscillated and declined in the short - term due to the decline of US soybeans. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for bean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectations. Coupled with the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, bean meal has entered a weak oscillating pattern in the short - term. - The low - level inventory of domestic oil mill bean meal supports short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. Bean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short - term, awaiting the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal**: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil mill bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in US soybean - producing area weather. Bearish factors include the high arrival of imported soybeans in June and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans**: Bullish factors include the cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean disk and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand. Bearish factors include the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - **Sowing and Growth Progress**: The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2023/24 season, and the sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US and Brazil in the 2024 and 2024/25 seasons are presented [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Reports**: The monthly supply - demand reports of the USDA in the past six months are provided, including data on harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, exports, and crushing of soybeans [41]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Other Data - **Transaction Data**: The transaction data of bean meal and rapeseed meal from June 20 to July 1, including transaction average price and trading volume, are provided [15]. - **Price Data**: The futures and spot price data of soybeans and bean meal from June 23 to July 1 are provided [17]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The warehouse receipt data of soybeans and bean meal from June 18 to July 1 are provided [19].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views For Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The US soybean production area weather has uncertainties, supporting the bottom of the soybean meal market, but factors like South American soybean harvest and more imported Brazilian soybeans limit the upside. The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 2920 and 2980 [8]. For Soybeans - The domestic soybean market is also in a range - bound situation. Cost support and domestic demand support the bottom, while South American soybean harvest and domestic production increase limit the upside. The A2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 4100 and 4200 [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The report provides detailed views and strategies for soybean meal and soybeans, including fundamental analysis, basis, inventory, and expected price ranges [8][10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations have short - term positive effects on US soybeans, but good weather in the US soybean planting area has led to a short - term decline in the US soybean market. The domestic imported soybean arrival volume reached a high in June, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories have increased. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, and the market is in a weak and volatile pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic soybean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area. Bearish factors are high imported soybean arrival volume in June and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors are cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand. Bearish factors are the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report presents data on the supply - demand balance of global and domestic soybeans, including harvest area, yield, inventory, and consumption over the years [31][32]. - It also shows the planting and growth progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina, including planting rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, etc. [33][34][35]. 5. Position Data - No specific position data analysis is provided in the summary part, but it mentions that the main long positions in soybean meal have increased while funds have flowed out [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **For Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market is experiencing a decline due to favorable weather in the main production areas and technical adjustments. In the short - term, it will fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance from China - U.S. tariff negotiations and the growth weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market has also declined, affected by the U.S. soybean market and technical adjustments. With an increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices, the upward movement of the futures price is restricted, and it will return to a range - bound pattern. The expected trading range for M2509 is between 2900 and 2960 [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The U.S. soybean market is in a downward trend with short - term fluctuations above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic soybean market has declined, influenced by the U.S. market, while the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports price expectations. In the short - term, it will be affected by the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybeans. The expected trading range for A2509 is between 4100 and 4200 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: Market is neutral, with a bearish basis, a bullish inventory situation, a neutral position on the 20 - day moving average, and a bullish outlook for the main position. It is expected to trade in the range of 2900 - 2960 [8]. - **Soybeans**: Market is neutral, with a bullish basis, a bearish inventory situation, a neutral position on the 20 - day moving average, and a bearish outlook for the main position. It is expected to trade in the range of 4100 - 4200 [10]. 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement in China - U.S. tariff negotiations is beneficial for U.S. soybeans, but favorable weather in U.S. soybean - growing areas has led to a short - term decline after a rally. In the future, it awaits further guidance from soybean planting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May, and the domestic soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level after May Day, while the soybean meal inventory remains low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to a volatile pattern due to the conclusion of the China - U.S. tariff war, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day. However, the tight supply supports the post - holiday price of soybean meal. With the weakening pressure of the China - U.S. tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a weakly - volatile pattern in the short - term. - The low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills and the relatively strong spot price support short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in U.S. soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - U.S. tariff war still exist. The soybean meal market will remain volatile in the short - term, awaiting the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - U.S. tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China will reach a high in June, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans continues after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From June 17th to 26th, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed small - scale fluctuations [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From June 17th to 26th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed a downward trend [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts**: From June 13th to 26th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean 1 and soybean 2) and soybean meal changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. - **Soybean Meal Spot Prices**: The soybean meal futures market is in a relatively strong and volatile state, while the spot market has been relatively weak after May Day, and the discount has slightly widened [22]. - **Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply and demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including information on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [30][31]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided specifically for position data other than the general description of main positions in the viewpoints and strategies section. Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of U.S. soybeans has increased compared to the previous week but decreased compared to the same period last year [41]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, while the soybean meal inventory has continued to increase [43]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, indicating a weakening of long - term procurement demand [45]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, but the soybean meal output in April decreased year - on - year [46]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has slightly increased, and the profit margin of imported soybean futures has slightly narrowed [48]. - The inventory of live pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [50]. - The prices of live pigs and piglets have slightly declined [52]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs has slightly increased [54]. - The domestic pig - farming profit has declined to a relatively low level [56].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-24 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，油脂回落带动和技术性调整，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡等待中 美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美豆带动和 技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度，短期回归区 间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2860（华东），基差-177，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存50.89万吨，上周41万吨，环比增加24.12%，去年同期96.77万吨，同 比减少47.41%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is in a high - level oscillation due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The market focuses on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [10][14]. - The soybean market is also in an oscillatory state, with the market concentrating on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [15]. - In the short term, US soybeans may oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance. Domestic soybean meal may return to an interval oscillation pattern [10][17]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Tips The content does not explicitly present weekly tips. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are short - term bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is still variable, and the US soybean market is oscillating strongly in the short term, expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory increased from a low level, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills also increased [13]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans continues [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [15]. - Bearish factors: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, China has increased its purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated and increased [22]. - **USDA's Recent Six - Month Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: There have been some changes in the harvest area, yield, output, and other indicators of US soybeans in the past six months [23]. - **US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024**: The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other progress of US soybeans in 2024 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in 2024/25**: The planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in 2024/25 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28]. - **Argentine Soybean Planting Progress in 2024/25**: The planting progress of Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [29]. 3.5 Position Data The provided content does not mention position data. 3.6 Soybean Meal and Soybean Trading Strategies 3.6.1 Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal oscillates within the range of 2900 - 3100 in the short term. Short - term interval trading is the main strategy [17]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. 3.6.2 Soybeans - Futures: The A2509 contract of soybeans oscillates within the range of 4100 - 4300. Short - term interval trading is recommended [20]. - Option strategy: Wait and see [20]. 3.7 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) 3.7.1 US Soybean Market Analysis - US soybeans are oscillating strongly in the short term due to Sino - US tariff negotiations and biodiesel policies. The overall good planting weather in US soybean - producing areas suppresses the upward space of the market [33]. - The market focuses on the variability of US soybean - producing area weather and changes in Sino - US trade relations. The US soybean market may oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, waiting for further guidance [33]. 3.7.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival of imported soybeans reached a high in June, and the overall volume increased [36]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, while the soybean meal inventory continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the demand for forward stocking weakened [37][39]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The downstream procurement in China has rebounded to a relatively high level, and the pick - up volume has remained good [44]. - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The inventory of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices and piglet prices decreased slightly [46][48]. 3.8 Market Structure of Meal Products - The soybean meal futures oscillated strongly, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the discount fluctuated slightly [59]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference between the 2509 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal remained oscillating [61]. 3.9 Technical Analysis 3.9.1 Soybean Technical Analysis - Soybean futures oscillated and rebounded, driven by the trend of US soybeans and the rise of domestic soybean spot prices [67]. - The KDJ indicator oscillated at a high level, and the short - term technical indicator entered the rebound stage, but the high - level indicator limited the further upward space [67]. - The MACD oscillated and rebounded at a low level, and the short - term technical rebound may continue for a short time [67]. 3.9.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis - Soybean meal oscillated strongly this week, mainly driven by US soybeans. The expected concentrated arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans suppressed the upward space of the market [69]. - The KDJ indicator oscillated at a high level, entering the technical oscillation and consolidation stage, and the upward space at the high - level indicator may be limited [69]. - The MACD oscillated and rebounded, and the short - term technical rebound was accompanied by a narrowing of the red energy [69]. 3.10 Next Week's Focus Points - The most important points are the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US trade relations and the follow - up of the tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72][73]. - The second - important points are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [74]. - The third - important points are macro - factors and the conflicts in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine [74].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-20 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆因假日休市一天，消息面短期平静和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上 方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升， 美豆带动和技术性震荡整理，但6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度， 短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2910（华东），基差-167，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存41万吨，上周38.25万吨，环比增加7.19%，去年同期99.49万吨，同 比减少58.79%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Bean Meal**: The US soybean market is affected by factors such as lower - than - expected excellent rate and weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas. In the domestic market, the import of soybeans in June is increasing, and the weak spot price restricts the upward movement of the bean meal price. It is expected to return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The US soybean market has a bottom - support due to weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas, but the bumper harvest in South America and good recent planting weather limit its upward potential. The domestic soybean market is influenced by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand, while the bumper harvest in Brazil and the expected increase in domestic production limit the price increase. The A2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 4200 and 4300 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Bean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100, and soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4200 and 4300 [8][10]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is beneficial to US soybeans, but the good recent planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pull - back after the rise in the US soybean market. The domestic soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level after May Day, while the bean meal inventory remains low. The short - term market has returned to a volatile pattern, showing a strong - reality and weak - expectation situation. The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment, and the demand for bean meal has weakened after May Day [12]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Bean Meal**: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas. Bearish factors include the increase in the total import of domestic soybeans in June and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South America [13]. - **Soybeans**: Bullish factors are the cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand. Bearish factors are the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil and the expected increase in domestic production of new - season soybeans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2900, with a basis of - 174, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill bean meal inventory is 410,000 tons, a 7.19% increase from last week and a 58.79% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of - 47, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 5.996 million tons, a 1.75% decrease from last week and an 8.59% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The short positions of the main contract have decreased, and funds have flowed in [10].

豆粕早报 2025-06-17 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，油脂上涨支撑和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡等 待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高回落，获利盘 回吐和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹空间，短期 回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2870（华东），基差-175，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存41万吨，上周38.25万吨，环比增加7.19%，去年同期99.49万吨，同 比减少58.79%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：主力多单增加，资金流出，偏多 6.预期：美国大豆产区天气仍存变数支撑美豆盘面底部，但南美大豆丰产和美豆种植 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-16 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 3.国内生猪养殖利润减少导致生猪补栏预期不高，豆粕需求五一后转淡 但供应偏紧支撑豆粕节后价格预期，加上中美关税战压力减弱豆粕短期进入 震荡偏弱格局。 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，美国生物柴油政策刺激油脂大涨带动大豆，美豆短期千点关口上 方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高回落， 获利盘回吐和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹空间， 短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2850（华东），基差-191，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库 ...