Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as "incompetent" and indicated that a new candidate will be appointed when Powell's term ends in May 2024, which could significantly impact U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the central bank [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - The candidate pool for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has narrowed to five individuals, including current Fed board members and senior figures from the White House and Wall Street [3]. - Trump aims to finalize his nominee by the end of this year, which may reflect underlying issues regarding Powell's position [3][4]. - The new chairman's selection is crucial as it will directly influence the future direction of U.S. monetary policy [1]. Group 2: Candidate Profiles - Kevin Hassett, closely associated with Trump, has held senior positions in the White House and is seen as a potential choice, though his appointment may threaten the Fed's independence [4]. - Kevin Walsh, who served on the Fed during the 2008 financial crisis, has been critical of the Fed's past policies, aligning with Trump's views [4]. - Christopher Waller, appointed by Trump in 2020, is familiar with the Fed's operations and may align with Trump's reform expectations [5]. - Michelle Bowman has opposed many regulatory measures from the Biden administration, appealing to Trump's desire for comprehensive Fed reform [5]. - Rick Reed, a Wall Street figure, is noted for his market knowledge but lacks familiarity with the Fed's internal bureaucracy, potentially offering a fresh perspective [5].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as "incompetent" and indicated that a new candidate will be appointed when Powell's term ends in May 2024, which could significantly impact U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the central bank [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - Trump's comments suggest a desire for a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's leadership, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting [1]. - The candidate pool for the new Federal Reserve Chairman has narrowed to five individuals, including current Fed board members and economic advisors, with interviews planned for November [3]. - The selection of a new chairman is critical as it will influence the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and the central bank's independence [1][3]. Group 2: Candidate Profiles - Kevin Hassett, a close associate of Trump, is seen as a strong candidate, but his appointment may threaten the Fed's independence during economic crises [4]. - Kevin Walsh, who has previously criticized the Fed's policies, is also a leading candidate and aligns with Trump's views on monetary policy [4]. - Christopher Waller, appointed by Trump in 2020, is considered a potential candidate who understands the Fed's operations and could implement reforms aligned with Trump's preferences [5]. - Michelle Bowman has a background in banking regulation and has opposed many Biden-era policies, making her an attractive option for Trump [5]. - Rick Reed, a Wall Street executive, is noted for his market knowledge but lacks familiarity with the Fed's internal workings, which could provide a fresh perspective [5].

Core Points - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as "incompetent" and indicated that a new candidate will be appointed by May next year [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting, marking the second consecutive rate cut [1] - The selection of the new chairman is crucial as it will directly influence the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the central bank [1] Candidate Selection - The candidate pool for the new Federal Reserve Chairman has been narrowed down to five individuals, including current Fed board members and senior figures from the White House and Wall Street [3] - Treasury Secretary Becerra plans to conduct new interviews and submit a "quality candidate list" to President Trump by the end of November [3] - Trump aims to finalize his nominee by the end of this year, which may reflect complex factors surrounding Powell's position [3] Candidate Profiles - Kevin Walsh and Kevin Hassett are seen as frontrunners, both having close ties to Trump [4] - Hassett's strong loyalty to Trump makes him an attractive choice, but his appointment could threaten the Fed's independence [4] - Walsh has previously criticized the Fed's deviation from its price stability mission, aligning with Trump's views [4] - Waller, appointed by Trump in 2020, is familiar with Fed operations and may align with Trump's reform expectations [4] - Bowman has opposed many regulatory measures from the Biden era, appealing to Trump's desire for comprehensive Fed reform [4] - Reed, a Wall Street figure, offers a fresh perspective but lacks familiarity with the Fed's internal bureaucracy [5]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Gold and Silver [1] Report Date and Author - Date: October 28, 2025 - Author: Wang Wenhu from the Research Institute [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Sino-US economic and trade relations' easing may put pressure on precious metal prices; Fed's possible rate cut and stop of balance sheet reduction in the long term support precious metal prices; some central banks' gold - related actions have mixed impacts on prices. It is expected that precious metal prices may adjust, and investors are advised to wait and see [3] Summary by Sections Part 1: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - **Fiscal Situation**: US unpaid public debt scale increased by $30.8 billion to $3.80 trillion; 2025 Q3 Treasury net issuance was $964.5 billion, and Q4 may decline. Permanent expansion of additional tax credits may increase fiscal deficits by $23.4 - $43.9 billion from 2026 - 2035; abolition of health insurance - related provisions may increase deficits by $1.4 - $37.5 billion [10] - **Monetary Policy Tools**: Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was $2.435 billion; bank reserve balance decreased, overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale increased, and Treasury cash account increased. The temporary appropriation bill passed by the House failed in the Senate. Fed's lending to commercial banks showed different trends, and the regular financing plan BTFP expired. The Fed used the standing repurchase facility SRF, with a cumulative use of $30.6 billion [11][13][16][17] - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: US September CPI was 3% year - on - year, core CPI was 3% year - on - year. October consumer inflation expectations were 4.6% (1 - year) and 3.9% (5 - year). Mid - long - term Treasury yields decreased due to Fed's expected rate cuts and stop of balance sheet reduction. The spread between long - and mid - term Treasuries was positive and widened [19][21][26] - **Financial Stress Index**: The US OFR financial stress index decreased to - 2.0930, with some sub - indicators rising. The Fed's use of SRF eased inter - bank liquidity [29] Part 2: US Economic and Employment Performance - **Commercial Bank Loans**: US commercial bank loan and lease volume increased week - on - week, with different trends in various loan types [33][35] - **Retail Sales**: US Redbook commercial retail sales annual rate decreased to 5.0% week - on - week, but consumer spending remained relatively stable [38] - **Mortgage Applications**: US 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates decreased, MBA mortgage application activity index decreased, and August new and existing home sales increased [41] - **Employment**: US initial jobless claims were 218,000, lower than expected and previous values; continued claims were 1.926 million, lower than expected but higher than previous values. September ADP private employment decreased by 32,000, indicating concerns about a weakening job market [44] - **International Bond Yield Spreads**: The spreads between US and German (Japanese) mid - long - term Treasury yields decreased due to different central bank policies [47] - **Exchange Rates**: Euro - US dollar exchange rate may bottom out, and US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate may weaken [48] - **Market Volatility**: US S&P 500 and gold ETF index volatilities decreased [50] Part 3: Gold - Silver Spread and Inventory Situation - **Gold**: COMEX gold non - commercial long - short position ratio decreased; COMEX and SHFE total gold inventory decreased. Gold futures and spot spreads, basis, and near - far contract spreads were at different levels, with corresponding investment suggestions [56][58][60][67][69][72] - **Silver**: London silver 1 - month lease rate decreased significantly; COMEX silver non - commercial long - short position ratio increased; COMEX, SHFE, and SGE total silver inventory decreased. Silver futures and spot spreads, basis, and near - far contract spreads were at different levels, with corresponding investment suggestions [73][76][79][83][84][85] - **Ratio Analysis**: "Gold - silver ratio" was between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years; "Gold - oil ratio" and "Gold - copper ratio" were much higher than the 90% quantiles of the past five years, with corresponding investment suggestions [87][89]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary confirmed five candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair position, with President Trump expected to make a final decision by the end of the year [1] - Candidates include current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock executive Rick Reed [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, marking the second consecutive cut, while Trump previously expressed a desire for a 300 basis point cut [1] Group 2 - The FOMC is facing a dilemma, with rising unemployment concerns prompting a rate cut in September, while inflation remains nearly one percentage point above the 2% target [2] - Strong economic growth in the third quarter has led some officials to be cautious about premature or excessive easing of monetary policy [2] - The outlook for U.S. monetary policy remains uncertain and divided among decision-makers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented decision by former President Donald Trump to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has sparked significant political and financial turmoil, challenging the century-old tradition of the Federal Reserve's independence [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's action represents a direct challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence, which has been a cornerstone of the U.S. financial system since its establishment in 1913 [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's governance structure, designed to ensure diverse and balanced monetary policy decisions, is at risk as Trump aims to replace dissenting members with allies [3][4]. Group 2: Legal and Political Repercussions - Lisa Cook's immediate response includes plans to file a lawsuit against the dismissal, asserting that the President lacks the authority to unilaterally remove a Federal Reserve Governor [3][4]. - The legal framework established by the Federal Reserve Act protects the independence of the Fed, requiring "just cause" for any dismissal, a safeguard that Trump has seemingly breached [4]. Group 3: Economic Context and Implications - The backdrop of this political maneuvering includes a slowing U.S. economy and high debt levels, with Trump seeking to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates to stimulate growth [6]. - Experts warn that if the President can manipulate the Federal Reserve, it could lead to detrimental effects on the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, echoing issues faced by developing nations [6]. Group 4: Broader Political Landscape - Trump's actions are part of a broader strategy to retaliate against perceived political adversaries, indicating a systematic approach to consolidate power within the government [7]. - The political polarization in the U.S. is exacerbated by these events, with significant legislative changes occurring under Republican control, further entrenching party divisions [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's aggressive strategy towards the Federal Reserve may backfire, raising concerns about the Fed's ability to control inflation through interest rate setting [1][12]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve - A recent survey of 94 economists indicates that many fear the Trump administration's "attacks" on the Federal Reserve will become evident after Chairman Powell's term ends next year [1]. - Economists warn that the Fed could become a "puppet" of the government, with the outlook for U.S. monetary policy described as "bad," "chaotic," and "disastrous" [3][7]. - Since taking office, Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed, particularly targeting Powell for not lowering interest rates [3]. Group 2: Credibility and Independence Concerns - Among the surveyed economists, 89 out of 94 believe the ongoing disputes have damaged the Fed's credibility [5]. - Over a quarter of economists are concerned that by 2029, the Fed may not fulfill its duty to keep U.S. borrowing costs free from political influence [5]. - 42% of respondents believe Trump's attacks could lead to strong inflationary pressures, while 35% see potential loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds as a significant risk [8]. Group 3: Future Projections - More than a quarter (28%) of economists remain cautiously optimistic, predicting that while the Fed's independence may decrease by 2029, it will still be able to perform its duties [6]. - A majority (52%) expect a shift in the Fed's focus after Powell's term, prioritizing lower government borrowing costs and employment, potentially at the expense of price stability [6]. - Economists agree that a weakened independence of the Fed would harm the largest economy globally, emphasizing that independence is crucial for lower and more stable inflation [7]. Group 4: Political Dynamics and Market Reactions - The upcoming confirmation hearing for Trump's latest Fed nominee, Miran, is expected to face scrutiny from Democrats, particularly regarding the dismissal of Cook and pressure on the Fed to lower rates [11]. - Despite the political tensions, the market's reaction to Cook's dismissal was muted, indicating a complex investor sentiment [11]. - The Fed's internal voting dynamics are likely to remain stable, with a potential vote ratio of 9:3 even if Cook is replaced, suggesting limited changes in decision-making trends [11].

Core Viewpoint - Economists warn that financial markets have not fully absorbed the risks posed by Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve, including high inflation and loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's intervention raises concerns that the Fed's ability to control inflation through interest rate setting may be compromised [2]. - A survey of 94 economists indicates that many fear a permanent shift in the Fed's priorities towards employment and reducing government borrowing costs after Powell's term ends [2][4]. - 52% of surveyed economists expect a shift in the Fed's policy focus towards employment and government borrowing costs at the end of Powell's term, potentially at the expense of price stability [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - 42% of respondents believe Trump's attacks could unleash strong inflationary pressures, while 35% see loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds as a significant risk [7]. - Only one respondent believes that Trump's attacks on Fed independence will not pose a substantial risk to the U.S. economy [10]. - Economists generally agree that a weakened Fed independence could harm the largest economy, with implications for lower and more stable inflation and financial stability [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - 82% of respondents think that financial markets have only partially or slightly absorbed the impact of the White House's interference with the Fed, while 12% believe the markets have not absorbed these attacks at all [10]. - Market reactions to the firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook were muted, contrasting with previous strong investor responses to threats against Powell [10].

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve has significantly escalated following Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking a historic event as it is the first time in over a century that a president has removed a Fed governor [4]. Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - President Trump dismissed Lisa Cook citing allegations of mortgage fraud, and Cook's attorney announced plans to sue Trump for this action [4][6]. - Trump indicated he has a suitable replacement for Cook and is considering candidates such as Stephen Moore and David Malpass to fill the vacancy [5][8]. - The Federal Reserve's spokesperson emphasized that the law requires a valid reason for the dismissal of a governor, highlighting the importance of long-term terms and protections for Fed officials [6][10]. Group 2: Implications for the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, and currently, only two were appointed by Trump, with the remaining four appointed by former President Biden [7]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's reluctance to lower interest rates has led him to target Cook, aiming to create more vacancies and secure a majority of appointments for his administration [7][8]. - Experts warn that if Trump's dismissal of Cook is upheld, it could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Fed, potentially undermining its independence and leading to greater economic uncertainty in the future [11][12].

Core Points - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on grounds of alleged mortgage fraud, a move described as "unprecedented" and controversial [1] - Cook, the first Black woman to serve on the Federal Reserve Board, stated that she would continue her duties despite the dismissal [1] - Trump's letter cited Cook's alleged deceptive behavior regarding financial matters, questioning her integrity [1] Group 1: Legal and Institutional Context - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, all nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate, with only two members currently appointed by Trump [4] - Recent reports indicate that the President cannot arbitrarily dismiss Federal Reserve officials; legal scholars assert that valid reasons, such as misconduct, are required for such actions [8] - If Trump succeeds in dismissing Cook, it could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence [10] Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates has been noted, and the dismissal of Cook may be an attempt to create vacancies that favor his appointees [6] - If Trump gains a majority on the Federal Reserve Board, it could enhance his influence over monetary policy, particularly in favor of lower interest rates [9] - Experts warn that undermining the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to increased uncertainty in the U.S. economy and financial markets [10]