Core Viewpoint - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve, under the guise of inspecting building renovations, raises questions about the political and economic implications of his actions, particularly regarding interest rate policies and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][3][10]. Group 1: Political Context - Trump's approval ratings have declined due to various issues, including tariffs and health concerns, prompting his high-profile visit to the Federal Reserve to potentially regain public support [3][9][10]. - The visit is seen as a challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence, as Trump has previously criticized the Fed's interest rate decisions and has pressured it to lower rates to stimulate economic growth [6][8][12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The Federal Reserve has historically maintained its independence to avoid political pressures that could lead to economic instability, as seen in past instances of inflation caused by political interference [5][8]. - Trump's focus on the renovation budget of the Federal Reserve building, which has escalated from initial estimates to significantly higher costs, is perceived as an attempt to exert influence over the Fed [13]. - The future direction of U.S. monetary policy remains uncertain, hinging on the Federal Reserve's assessment of economic conditions despite Trump's pressures [13].

Core Viewpoint - The current "moderately tight" monetary policy in the U.S. is deemed appropriate, allowing the Federal Reserve to observe economic trends and assess risks for potential policy adjustments [1] Economic Forecast - The economic impact of the Trump administration's increased import tariffs is just beginning to manifest, with inflation expected to rise by approximately 1 percentage point in the second half of the year and early next year [1] - The U.S. economic growth rate is projected to slow down to 1% this year [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to increase from the current 4.1% to 4.5% by the end of the year [1] - The inflation rate is expected to remain between 3% and 3.5% for the entire year [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the U.S., suggesting a "big fiscal + loose monetary" environment leading to inflation, similar to the pandemic and Biden's era, requiring a compliant Federal Reserve for low interest rates [1][4] - U.S. federal debt has surged to nearly $30 trillion, up from $17 trillion in 2019, with net interest rates increasing from 2.4% to 3.6%, indicating a heavy debt burden [1][4] - The combination of increased revenue from tariffs and reduced interest payments could free up approximately $650 billion for federal finances, potentially offsetting new deficits from the "big beautiful plan" starting in 2026 [6][4] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of the upcoming earnings season for U.S. stocks, particularly focusing on tech companies with significant overseas revenue, which may benefit from a weaker dollar [10][16] - The U.S. Treasury is expected to issue short-term treasury bills to raise cash, with a target to increase the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance to $5 trillion by the end of July [10][11] - The performance of the stock market may face downward pressure if the earnings outlook is not strong, especially if the Federal Reserve does not unexpectedly lower interest rates [11][14] Group 3 - Key earnings reports to watch include ASML, TSMC, and Netflix, with specific focus areas such as revenue performance, market outlook, and subscription growth [16][17] - ASML's earnings will be scrutinized for revenue and gross margin performance, as well as insights on the semiconductor manufacturing sector [17] - Netflix's report will be important for understanding subscription revenue growth and future pricing strategies [17]

Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member and President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, Bostic, is scheduled to speak about U.S. monetary policy in ten minutes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bridgewater believes that the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation and economic growth has not fully manifested yet [1] Economic Impact - Some effects of tariffs are beginning to transmit along expected paths, but the impact on corporate investment due to tariff uncertainty remains relatively limited [1] - The U.S. economy is approaching full capacity, and fiscal policy may drag down growth in the short term [1] Fiscal Policy - Once budget measures like the "Build Back Better Act" are implemented, fiscal policy is expected to support the economy [1] Monetary Policy - The likelihood of significant adjustments in U.S. monetary policy in the near term is low, aligning with current market pricing [1]

Group 1 - The international gold price opened strong on July 1, with a price of $3316.19 per ounce, reflecting a 0.41% increase, driven by a rebound above the 60-day moving average and a weakening US dollar index [1] - The market is currently cautious, awaiting significant data releases such as the non-farm payrolls, which may limit bullish momentum [1] - The ongoing pressure from Trump on the Federal Reserve, along with concerns about tariffs and inflation, creates a complex landscape for US monetary policy, potentially affecting market confidence and economic stability [3] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a low of $3274.57 before rebounding to stabilize above the $3300 mark, indicating a short-term bullish trend [5] - The current trading strategy suggests monitoring the $3300 level as a support point, with upward targets at $3328 and $3345, while also considering potential short positions if resistance is encountered [5] - The analysis emphasizes a cautious approach to trading, advocating for a balanced strategy of buying on dips and selling on rallies within the established price range [5]

特朗普今年4月曾威胁要解雇鲍威尔，这令投资者感到恐慌。在金融市场出现波动后，他改口 称无意解雇鲍威尔。不过，由于对美联储处理利率的方式感到失望，特朗普近期加大了对鲍威 尔的批评力度。 当地时间上周五，特朗普表示，如果鲍威尔辞职的话，他将会很高兴，并将选择一位有降息意 愿的人来担任美联储主席。 这是迄今为止白宫打算明年对货币政策施加更大控制的最明确信号。 当地时间周日，美国总统特朗普再次指责美联储主席鲍威尔， 称其"很糟糕"、"人为地抬高利 率"，并表示利率应该降至目前水平的一半以下 。 "我们的美联储主席很糟糕，但除此之外……这并不重要，经济数据如此之好，他人 为抬高利率也没关系，"特朗普在接受采访时表示。 "利率应该控制在1%或2%，"特朗普表示。"记者问我'还有其他人选吗？'我说'是 的，有。除了鲍威尔，谁都可以。'" 特朗普还表示， 对于下一任美联储主席人选，他心里已有三个名字，但拒绝透露具体是谁 。 美联储本月18日决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间，这是该行连续第 四次决定维持利率不变。 鲍威尔的美联储主席任期要到明年5月才结束。特朗普近日暗示他将提前任命鲍威尔的继任 者。 ...

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 邵翔 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 7 月降息"豪赌"？特朗普"爱将" vs 联储主席，美国货币政策迎来关键博弈。 近期美联储理 事沃勒与副主席鲍曼接连表态支持在7月启动降息，引发市场对货币政策转向的强烈预期。 作为特朗普任命的理事，沃勒和鲍曼的激进鸽派发言并非"空穴来风"，而是美联储在多重约 束下的策略性选择： 既要应对经济数据的"迷雾"（经济下行担忧），又要平衡白宫的政治压 力，同时维系市场对政策独立性的信任。而作为美联储内部具有影响力的官员，其激进表态 也或将一定程度影响后续联储的降息决策，为货币政策转向预留"安全垫"。 | | 鲍曼和沃勒降息表态 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 官员 | 职位 | 与特朗普关系 | 降息表态 | | 的曼 | 美联储理事、监管副主 席 | 特朗普1.0任命为美联储理事: 特朗普2.0任命为美联储副主席 | 如果通胀压力得到控制,将支持在下次会议 (7月) 上尽快 ...

报 告 正 文 就业前值再下修。 5月新增非农就业人数下降至13.9万人，同时3月和4月合计下修9.5万人。今年以来，新增非农就业人数持续下调，或意味着 当前就业水平存在一 定程度的高估。分行业来看，新增就业主要来源从政府转向服务业。 5月服务业新增就业较上月提升，政府裁员影响仍在持续显现，5月联邦政府就业减少2.2万 人，自1月以来已减少5.9万人。而制造业更容易受到关税政策的影响，新增就业较上月减少1.3万人。 劳动参与率下降。 5月失业率维持在4.2%，不过，劳动参与率下降0.2个百分点至62.4%，同时25-54岁黄金年龄群体的劳动参与率也有下行，永久退出劳动力市场的 人增加。6月初纽约联储报告显示，关税正在推高企业定价并影响招聘决策。此外，随着联邦政府削减开支，未来或减少对承包商、大学等工作岗位的需求。整体 来看，就业降温趋势不变。 新增非农就业放 缓 。 5月新增非农就业人数降至13.9万人，较上月延续减少。从长期趋势来看，新增就业人数基本走平，就业市场仍然保持较好势头。不过，3月 和4月新增非农就业人数均有下调，较上次报告合计下修9.5万人。年初以来，就业人数前值不断下修，意味着当前就业水平或被 ...

摘要周五（5月30日）国际黄金日内维持下跌走势，目前市场焦点还集中在周五将公布的美国个人消费 支出(PCE)物价指数数据上。市场将仔细分析该数据，以寻找有关美国未来货币政策的信号。 美联储利率政策与贸易不确定性成为市场焦点。周四，美国联邦上诉法院暂停贸易法院的裁定，临时恢 复前总统特朗普实施的关税措施。据市场调查显示，此举为贸易前景再添变数，增强市场避险情绪，有 助于金价保持韧性。 此外，美联储多位官员近期表示，如果经济数据和通胀进一步回落，今年进行2次降息是合理的预期。 尽管FOMC会议纪要显示目前仍保持观望态度，但市场仍倾向于年内降息。这种利率路径的不确定性， 成为黄金的中长期支撑因素之一。 【黄金技术分析】 今日周五，金价又再度跌破3300点，内盘TD价格虽保持在765上方，但涨势力度不强，白盘时段能否延 续昨日的上涨格局，不好肯定，因此还需观察等待。短期内若没有风险事件支撑，金价上涨较难持续， 所以还是不能再高位追进，或许会跌破位昨日低点，也或许不会，总之能够再回撤拉低价格，就是入场 的最佳时机，因为下一阶段的上涨快启动了。 晚间交易提醒： 20:00 德国5月CPI月率初值 周五（5月30日）国际黄 ...