免责声明 沪镍产业日报 2025-08-12 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 带动整体精炼镍产量小幅增加。需求端，不锈钢厂利润改善，钢厂进行提产；新能源汽车产销继续爬升， 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 但三元电池需求有限。近期镍价上涨采需减弱，现货升水持稳，国内库存上升；海外LME库存录得增长。 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 技术面，多空存在分歧，预计区间宽幅震荡。操作上，建议暂时观望，或区间操作，参考12.0-12.5。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, on the mining side, the copper concentrate TC fee has improved but remains in the negative range, and the domestic port inventory has slightly increased. The tight supply of copper ore still provides cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, due to the increase in newly commissioned production capacity and the high price of by - product sulfuric acid making up for smelting losses, smelters are currently producing actively. However, considering the supply of copper concentrates, the production growth rate may gradually slow down. On the demand side, the impact of the consumption off - season is expected to continue, and the large - scale taxation of copper products by the US will suppress export demand. Therefore, downstream consumption demand may slow down, and the total inventory will remain at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation where the supply growth rate gradually slows down and the demand is slightly weak due to seasonal changes and trade tariffs. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.24, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0605, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and green bars have just appeared. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,779 dollars/ton, up 47.50 dollars [2]. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 60 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 156,044 hands, down 4,840 hands [2]. - The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is 4,902 hands, up 5,608 hands; the LME copper inventory is 155,700 tons, down 150 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 81,933 tons (weekly), up 9,390 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,975 tons, up 900 tons [2]. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 26,296 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,150 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 79,095 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 55 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 43.50 dollars/ton, up 3.50 dollars [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract is 130 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 83.25 dollars/ton, down 13.70 dollars [2]. - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons (monthly), down 4.58 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 38.06 dollars/kiloton (weekly), up 4.03 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 68,850 yuan/metal ton, up 40 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 69,550 yuan/metal ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for crude copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged; the processing fee for crude copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged [2]. - The output of refined copper is 130.20 million tons (monthly), up 4.80 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons (monthly), up 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons (weekly), up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 0 yuan/ton, down 54,990 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,900 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The output of copper products is 221.45 million tons (monthly), up 11.85 million tons; the cumulative value of investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 2,911 billion yuan (monthly), up 871.14 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 46,657.56 billion yuan (monthly), up 10,423.72 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. 3.6期权情况 - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.23%, down 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.70%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 9.35%, down 0.0049%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.24, up 0.0605 [2]. 3.7行业消息 - The Trump team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair. The White House is expected to announce the Fed Chair candidate this fall [2]. - Goldman Sachs: As of June, US companies bear 64% of the tariff costs, consumers bear 22%, and foreign exporters bear 14%. By October, consumers are expected to bear 67% of the costs, and the proportion borne by companies will drop to less than 10% [2]. - In July, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%. The export of new energy vehicles was 225,000, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 times [2]. - China opposes the politicization, instrumentalization, and weaponization of science, technology, and economic and trade issues, and opposes malicious blockades and suppressions against China. It hopes that the US will work with China to achieve positive results on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market is expected to see a slight increase in both supply and demand, with cost support and improved supply expectations due to policy influence. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may face a situation of slightly increasing supply and weakening demand, with accumulating industrial inventory. Option market sentiment is bullish, and it is advised to trade with a light position in a volatile way [2]. - The cast aluminum market is likely in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and weak demand during the off - season, with accumulating industrial inventory. Light - position volatile trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,735 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the alumina futures main contract is 3,308 yuan/ton, up 126 yuan. The main - to - second - consecutive contract spread for Shanghai Aluminum is 50 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; for alumina, it is - 41 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Aluminum main contract positions decreased by 4,524 hands to 210,986 hands; alumina main contract positions decreased by 18,724 hands to 96,168 hands. LME aluminum inventory increased by 5,275 tons to 475,850 tons; alumina total inventory increased by 38,284 tons to 85,472 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 600 yuan to 110 yuan/ton; the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 55 yuan to - 105 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Supply and Demand**: Alumina production increased by 26.13 tons to 774.93 tons, and demand decreased by 23.83 tons to 696.19 tons. The supply - demand balance increased by 52.40 tons to 27.14 tons [2]. - **Trade**: Alumina imports increased by 3.38 tons to 10.13 tons, and exports decreased by 4 tons to 17 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: Electrolytic aluminum total capacity increased by 2.5 tons to 4,523.2 tons, and the开工 rate increased by 0.10% to 97.78%. Aluminum product production increased by 11.17 tons to 587.37 tons [2]. - **Trade**: Unwrought aluminum and aluminum product exports increased by 5.2 tons to 54.2 tons; aluminum alloy exports increased by 0.16 tons to 2.58 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: Automobile production increased by 16.66 million to 280.86 million; aluminum alloy production increased by 2.4 tons to 166.9 tons [2]. - **Index**: The National Real Estate Prosperity Index decreased by 0.11 to 93.60 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.01% to 7.79%; the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.01% to 8.68% [2]. - **Ratio**: The purchase - to - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options increased by 0.0403 to 1.19 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump's team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair, and the White House may announce the candidate this fall [2]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that by October, consumers will bear 67% of the tariff cost, and enterprises' share will drop to less than 10% [2]. - In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicle production and sales up 26.3% and 27.4% respectively, and new energy vehicle exports up 1.2 times [2]. - China opposes the politicization, instrumentalization, and weaponization of science, technology, and economic and trade issues [2].

Group 1: US Stock Market Performance - The US stock market faced pressure with all three major indices closing down: Dow Jones down 0.45%, Nasdaq down 0.30%, and S&P 500 down 0.25% [1] - In the tech sector, Nvidia fell by 0.3%, AMD by 0.28%, and Apple by 0.95%, while Tesla saw an increase of 2.85% after applying for a household electricity supply license in the UK [1] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.29%. Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Baidu all fell over 1%, while Tencent Music rose over 2%, XPeng Motors increased over 5%, and Bilibili rose over 1% [1] Group 2: Gold Market Reaction - President Trump stated that gold would not be subject to tariffs, but this did not lead to significant short-term fluctuations in gold prices, with spot gold maintaining a 1.58% decline [2][3] - Following an unexpected ruling by the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) that gold imports would incur tariffs, gold futures surged to a historical high, causing disruptions in gold transportation [4] - Analysts noted that if the CBP's decision remains, it could have profound implications for the global gold market and the smooth operation of US futures contracts, distinguishing gold from other commodities affected by tariffs [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Chair Candidates - The list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair has expanded to eight, including current Vice Chairs Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan [5] - The selection process is being led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who will interview more candidates in the coming weeks [5] - Other candidates still under consideration include Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Marc Sumerlin, Kevin Warsh, and James Bullard [5]

当地时间周一，美股市场表现承压，三大股指收盘均告下跌。其中，道指下跌 0.45% ，纳指下跌 0.30% ，标普 500 指数下跌 0.25% 。 科技股方面，英伟达下跌 0.3% ， AMD 下跌 0.28% ，苹果股价下跌 0.95% ；而特斯拉则逆势 上涨 2.85% ，该公司已向英国能源监管机构提交家庭用电供应许可证申请。 热门中概股收盘呈现涨跌分化态势，纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌 0.29% 。 具体来看，阿里巴巴、拼多多、百度跌幅均超 1% ，京东下跌近 1% ；与之相对，腾讯音乐上涨 超 2% ，小鹏汽车涨幅超 5% ，哔哩哔哩上涨超 1% ，贝壳上涨 1% 。 01 黄金不会被加征关税 北京时间8月12日凌晨1:30，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文明确表示： " 黄金不会被征收关 税！ " 不过，特朗普的表态并未引发金价显著短线波动。发文后，现货黄金仍维持 1.58% 的跌幅，在日 低 3341.40 美元附近持稳； COMEX 黄金期货则维持 2.55% 的跌幅，持稳于日低 3402 美元附 近。 此后，现货黄金跌幅有所收窄，从 3341 美元附近回升至 3354.61 美元，日内整体仍下跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump team is expanding the list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair, including current Fed Governor Bowman and Vice Chair Jefferson, with an announcement expected this fall [1] Group 1 - The Trump administration is actively considering new candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair position [1] - Current Federal Reserve Governor Bowman and Vice Chair Jefferson are now included in the candidate pool [1] - An official announcement regarding the new Federal Reserve Chair is anticipated in the fall of this year [1]

Group 1 - The potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair include James Bullard and Mark Sullivan, expanding the list to about 10 candidates [1][2][4] - Morgan Stanley economists predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, followed by three additional cuts, bringing the benchmark rate to between 3.25% and 3.5% [5][6] - The appointment of Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve Board member is expected to influence the Fed's future monetary policy, with a more dovish stance anticipated [5][6] Group 2 - The current Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, is under pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, with several candidates expressing support for rate cuts [3][5] - The upcoming employment data in August will be crucial in determining the extent of potential rate cuts, with a 4.4% unemployment rate possibly leading to larger cuts [5] - The yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds may steepen if Trump's key appointments succeed, reflecting market reactions to the Fed's policy direction [6]

Stock Market Performance - All three major indices in the US closed higher this week, with the Dow Jones up 1.35%, S&P 500 up 2.43%, and Nasdaq up 3.87% [1] - On Friday, the Dow rose by 206.97 points (0.47%) to close at 44,175.61 points, Nasdaq increased by 207.32 points (0.98%) to 21,450.02 points, and S&P 500 gained 49.45 points (0.78%) to 6,389.45 points [1] - Nasdaq reached an intraday all-time high of 21,464.53 points during Friday's trading [1] Individual Stock Movements - Apple (AAPL.US) surged over 4% on Friday and accumulated a 13% increase for the week, marking its best weekly performance since July 2020 [1] - Tesla (TSLA.US) rose by 2.29%, while Google (GOOG.US) increased by 2.44% [1] - Freddie Mac (FMCC.US) saw a significant rise of over 20% [1] European Stock Market - The German DAX30 index fell by 38.84 points (0.16%) to 24,151.86 points, while the UK FTSE 100 index decreased by 13.02 points (0.14%) to 9,087.75 points [2] - The French CAC40 index rose by 33.68 points (0.44%) to 7,743.00 points, and the Spanish IBEX35 index increased by 145.70 points (0.99%) to 14,823.20 points [2] Asian Stock Market - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose over 1.8%, while the KOSPI index in South Korea fell by 0.55% [3] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for September settled at $63.88 per barrel, unchanged from the previous day, while October Brent crude oil futures rose by 16 cents to $66.59 per barrel, a 0.24% increase [3] - Gold futures in New York rose by 0.13% to $3,458.2, reaching an intraday high of $3,534.1 [4] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin decreased by 0.54% to $116,889.9, while Ethereum increased by over 3% to $4,044.24 [5] Employment Data in Canada - Canada saw a reduction of 40,800 jobs in July, with the employment rate dropping to 60.7%, the lowest level since the pandemic began [9] - The youth unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 24 rose to 14.6%, the highest level since September 2010, excluding the pandemic years [9] Company News - Tesla (TSLA.US) received approval for a rideshare license in Texas, paving the way for its autonomous taxi service [10] - The US government is preparing to list Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (FMCC.US) later this year, potentially raising around $30 billion [11] - The automotive industry, particularly companies like Ford (F.US) and General Motors (GM.US), is facing significant losses due to tariffs, with projected losses of $7 billion in profits by 2025 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is actively seeking a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with Christopher Waller being a leading candidate due to his willingness to base policy on forecasts rather than existing data and his deep understanding of the Federal Reserve system [1][4] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - Christopher Waller is currently the most prominent candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, having met with Trump's team to discuss the role [1] - Other candidates include former Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh and current White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, both of whom are also in contention for the position [1][2] - Trump has narrowed the candidate list to three individuals, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen, Vice President JD Vance, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick [2] Group 2: Waller's Background and Experience - Waller was nominated to the Federal Reserve in 2020 and previously served as the research director and executive vice president of the St. Louis Fed [4] - He has engaged in public debates with influential economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, and has successfully argued that inflation could be reduced without significantly increasing unemployment [4] - Waller has emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence for the proper functioning of the U.S. economy [4] Group 3: Recent Federal Reserve Decisions - Despite pressure from Trump, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, with Waller and fellow board member Michelle Bowman voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut due to signs of a weakening labor market [3] - A recent employment report indicated a sharp slowdown in job growth over the past three months, supporting Waller and Bowman's dissenting opinions [3] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process has shown a divide in opinions, with some members believing the labor market remains strong and advocating for patience in adjusting interest rates [3]

Core Viewpoint - Christopher Waller is emerging as a favored candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, supported by former President Trump, which has led the market to reassess future monetary policy directions [2][3]. Group 1: Waller's Profile and Market Impact - Waller has been a Federal Reserve Governor since 2020, known for his academic background and policy flexibility, advocating for quicker monetary easing when inflation risks are manageable [3]. - His potential appointment is seen as a stabilizing factor for long-term U.S. Treasury yields and maintaining dollar inflows, alleviating market concerns about abrupt shifts in monetary policy [2][3]. - The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, with the dollar index rising by 0.23% to 98.400 following the news of Waller's candidacy [2]. Group 2: Other Candidates and Market Sentiment - Other candidates mentioned by Trump include Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, with Waller, Hassett, and Warsh being the top contenders according to betting platforms [5]. - Analysts express concerns that candidates closely aligned with the White House may raise fears about the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially negatively impacting asset prices [5]. - Hassett is viewed as favoring aggressive fiscal stimulus, which could pressure the dollar and increase bond market volatility if appointed [5]. - Warsh's history of advocating for tighter monetary policy raises questions about his potential approach if he were to take office, with concerns about a more aggressive balance sheet reduction [5].