美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为95% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月累计降 息25个基点的概率为15.4%，维持利率不变的概率为84.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.6%。 来源：市场资讯 预测市场的交易者押注，贝莱德高管瑞克·里德尔（Rick Rieder）成为美联储下一任领导人的几率大幅 上升。周四上午，在Polymarket平台上，里德尔被特朗普选为下任美联储主席的几率为30%，仅次于前 美联储理事凯文·沃什的45%。十天前，里德尔在市场上的概率仅为3%。他的支持率上升，主要是以白 宫经济学家哈塞特为代价。哈塞特上月押注领先（其押注在12月2日达到峰值85%），但现在下降至 6%。 1月23日，人民币兑美元中间价报6.9929，上调90点。升值至2023年5月17日以来最高，升幅创2025年8 月25日以来最大。离岸人民币短线快速拉升。 市场押注贝莱德高管里德尔为美联储主席热门人选 ...

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of Rick Rieder, a BlackRock executive, becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair has significantly increased, with current market predictions showing a 30% chance, up from just 3% ten days ago [1] Group 1 - Rieder's probability of being selected as the next Fed Chair is currently at 30%, ranking second to former Fed governor Kevin Walsh, who has a 45% chance [1] - Rieder's rise in support comes at the expense of White House economist Kevin Hassett, whose probability has dropped from a peak of 85% to 6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Rick Rieder, BlackRock's fixed income chief, is emerging as a strong candidate for the Federal Reserve chair position, especially after positive comments from President Donald Trump [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Evaluation - President Trump described Rieder as "very impressive" following a recent meeting, highlighting his potential as a candidate for the Federal Reserve chair [2]. - Rieder is among a select group of finalists to succeed current Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May [2]. Group 2: Candidate Selection Process - Trump mentioned that the candidate pool has been narrowed down from 11 to potentially one, indicating a decisive selection process [2].

来源：滚动播报 白宫顾问哈塞特谈美联储主席人选：我们需要一位尊重使命的独立人士。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Bank of America highlights the critical phase in the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair, suggesting that while popular candidates like Rieder and Waller are in focus, Treasury Secretary Basant may be the "hidden candidate" who meets the three essential criteria for the position [1][2]. Candidate Analysis - The current landscape shows a shift in market attention towards Rieder and Waller as the shortcomings of popular candidates Hassett and Warsh become apparent [2]. - Rieder has gained significant support, being viewed as a respected market insider with potential bipartisan support in the Senate, while advocating for a loosening of monetary policy [4]. - Waller, as a traditionalist within the Federal Reserve, has demonstrated strong policy judgment and maintains a focus on labor market stability, but his commitment to central bank independence may conflict with Trump's desire to reshape the Fed [6]. Candidate Shortcomings - Hassett's loyalty to Trump raises concerns about his ability to maintain the Fed's independence and continue anti-inflation policies, leading to a decline in his betting market odds [3]. - Warsh, despite attempting to align with the White House, holds a traditional hawkish stance that contradicts Trump's expectations for significant rate cuts [3]. Political Dynamics - The selection process lacks urgency, with the Trump team potentially delaying the final decision until June to ensure the new chair can lead the subsequent rate-cutting cycle [2]. - The gap between current market expectations and political realities is becoming a key variable influencing monetary policy direction [2].

这两天，川公子又画K线了。 这是怎么一回事呢？咱们得先从上周五说起。 全世界现在都特别关注下一任美联储主席的人选，虽然现在有好几个候选人，但希望最大的是白宫经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特和前美联储理事凯文·沃 什。 他只是说了两句话，有人就因此赚了几千万美元。 K线之王的实力依然恐怖如斯。 市场普遍预计，最终的选择会在"两个凯文"之间展开。 哈塞特是特朗普的传声筒，主张大幅度降息。 而凯文·沃什则是个鹰派。 对于华尔街和各大投资者来说，他们当然希望哈塞特能够上台，这样美联储加大降息力度，更多的美元被释放出来，自然就会流入到黄金，白银，美股市 场里。 结果就在北京时间周五晚上，特朗普突然出来说，哈塞特的表现很不错，但还是更希望他能继续留在原岗位上。 这么一番暗示，岂不是意味着哈塞特出局，下一任美联储主席极大概率就是凯文·沃什了吗？ 于是，特朗普这话刚说完，凯文·沃什获提名的概率瞬间飙升至59%。 同时，交易们急剧削减了对2026年美联储降息次数的押注，对于今年4月份降息的概率也从42%降到了37%。 这还没算完。 美元指数迅速拉升了20点，黄金白银也在短时间内来了个大跳水。 从这张图你就可以看出特朗普的威力了。 原 ...

中新网1月22日电据美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)报道，当地时间21日，美国总统特朗普在瑞士达 沃斯接受采访时，再次批评美联储主席鲍威尔"做得并不好"，并暗示已决定下一任美联储主席人选。 另一方面，特朗普对美联储新主席人选的考察已接近尾声。他表示，美联储新主席人选"或许就只剩一 个了。"不过，特朗普并未透露具体是谁。 据此前报道，特朗普自开启第二任期以来，一直敦促美联储降息。此前，白宫以及特朗普政府内阁官员 以美联储总部大楼翻新工程严重超预算为由，多次施压鲍威尔。鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于5月届 满。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 据报道，特朗普说，他不在乎鲍威尔是否在任期结束后继续留任。特朗普同时表示，"我觉得他应该离 开这里。他做得并不好。" 报道称，鲍威尔将于5月卸任主席一职，但美联储理事任期仍剩余两年，其仍能继续在货币政策和利率 方面发挥影响力。 谈及美联储大楼翻新工程的成本超支，特朗普评价鲍威尔称，"他要么是能力不足，要么就是心怀不 轨。" ...

本月政府动用司法部威胁现任主席鲍威尔后，市场对Hassett的怀疑似乎进一步加深。特朗普本人上周在 白宫活动上对Hassett表示："说实话，我其实想让你留在现在的位置。"这似乎降低了Hassett的胜算。 与此同时，目前在博彩市场上领先的Kevin Warsh远非特朗普的"完美组合"。尽管他最近通过媒体露面 讨好特朗普白宫，但Warsh本质上是一位终身鹰派人士和量化宽松的坚定批评者，不太可能实现特朗普 大幅降低政策利率的愿望。他在胡佛研究所的自由市场保守主义理念更接近共和党的早期时代，而非特 朗普所代表的MAGA民粹主义。 Rieder：债券市场"全球主义者" Rick Rieder是贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官，这位黑马候选人的支持率近日飙升。据悉，Rieder上周 四与特朗普的面试进展顺利，博彩市场目前给予他仅次于Warsh的第二高胜率。他被视为受人尊敬的市 场内部人士，了解市场运作机制，可能获得参议院支持。 特朗普为美联储主席人选设定的"完美标准"正面临现实困境，他希望找到一位既忠诚于白宫、又能获得 市场信任并推动长期借贷成本下降的候选人，但这样的"独角兽"或许并不存在。随着两位热门人选 Kevin ...

Group 1: Nuclear Energy Development - The U.S. is "strongly developing" nuclear energy, with President Trump signing directives to approve multiple nuclear reactors, emphasizing that nuclear energy is now safe and reasonably priced [3][4]. Group 2: Federal Spending and Economic Policies - Trump mentioned plans to reduce federal spending and lay off government employees, while promoting growth in U.S. exports and domestic steel production [4]. - The U.S. oil production has increased by 730,000 barrels per day, and natural gas production is at a historical high [7]. Group 3: Greenland Acquisition - Trump reiterated the desire to control Greenland, stating it is a "core national security interest" for the U.S., and expressed intentions to negotiate for its acquisition [8]. - He criticized Denmark for being "ungrateful" regarding the Greenland issue [8]. Group 4: International Relations and Energy Critique - Trump criticized Europe for its focus on green energy and immigration, claiming that certain areas have drastically changed [9]. - He also pointed out the high energy costs in Europe and targeted wind power as a specific concern [9]. Group 5: NATO and Security Concerns - Trump expressed dissatisfaction with NATO, claiming the U.S. has been treated unfairly and questioned whether NATO would protect the U.S. in case of an attack [10][11].

Group 1: Economic and Market Performance - The U.S. stock market has reached "52 historical highs" since the presidential election in November 2024, reflecting strong performance under Trump's administration [2] - The S&P 500 index has increased by 13.3%, the Nasdaq Composite by 16.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 11.5% since January 20, 2025, indicating the effectiveness of Trump's economic policies [2] Group 2: Energy Policy - Trump supports the fossil fuel industry, stating that U.S. natural gas production is "far above any historical level," and oil production is also at a high [3] - The increase in energy supply is seen as beneficial for lowering inflation and improving living standards [3] - Trump mentioned that the U.S. has acquired approximately 50 million barrels of oil from Venezuela, which could further lower energy prices [3] - Current average gasoline prices in the U.S. are about $2.83 per gallon, down from the previous year [3] - The government plans to "strongly develop nuclear energy," while criticizing renewable energy projects like wind energy for their environmental impact [3] - Nuclear power stocks saw significant gains, with Oklo Inc rising over 6%, NuScale Power up over 9%, Centrus Energy increasing by 0.68%, and Cameco up over 2.7% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Regulation - Trump called for Congress to pass legislation regulating the cryptocurrency market, which has faced delays due to opposition from some crypto firms regarding proposed bans on high-yield products [4] - The uncertainty surrounding the legislation has led to fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin rising back above $90,000 following Trump's remarks [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Leadership - Trump announced that he will soon nominate a new male Federal Reserve Chairman, consistent with reports of potential candidates [5] - He expressed dissatisfaction with current Chairman Jerome Powell's slow actions on interest rates and hopes the new appointee will perform well [5] Group 5: International Relations - Trump's comments on Europe and Canada have raised concerns about transatlantic relations, with him stating that parts of Europe have "become unrecognizable" and are not moving in the right direction [6] - His remarks about Canada's economic and security dependence on the U.S. further highlight tensions in North American relations [6]