Economic Data Review - U.S. durable goods orders in June fell by 9.3% month-on-month, the largest decline since April 2020[1] - July manufacturing PMI in the U.S. dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024[7] - Eurozone manufacturing PMI in July reached 49.8, the highest since July 2022[7] U.S. Economic Indicators - The WEI index for the U.S. decreased to 2.22% from 2.34% in the previous week[10] - The Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth in the U.S. fell to 5.1%, down from 5.2%[12] - The 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. decreased to 6.74% from 6.75% the previous week[15] Financial Conditions - Bloomberg financial conditions index for the U.S. rose to 0.644 from 0.549 a week earlier[29] - The offshore dollar liquidity improved, with the 3-month basis swap for JPY/USD at -22.3589bp, up from -24.6876bp a week prior[31] - The 10-year bond yield spread between the U.S. and Eurozone narrowed to 167.7bp from 168.3bp[33]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that U.S. durable goods orders decreased by 9.3% in June, which was better than the expected decline of 10.8% [1]

This Week's Key Focus - On July 21 at 09:15, the People's Bank of China is expected to announce that the 1-year LPR remains at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50% [2][4] - On July 24 at 20:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, with an expected unchanged benchmark rate [2][15] - On July 25 at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the preliminary value of June's durable goods orders [2] - On July 27 at 09:30, China's National Bureau of Statistics will announce June's industrial enterprise profits, with the previous value showing a 9.1% year-on-year decline and a 1.1% cumulative decline from January to May [2][19] - Other factors such as domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials may impact the futures market [2] This Week's Hotspot Preview July 21 - At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the achievements of building a transportation powerhouse during the '14th Five - Year Plan' [3] July 22 - At 15:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the first - half 2025 foreign exchange revenue and expenditure data [5] - At 20:30, Fed Chair Powell will give a welcome speech at a regulatory meeting, a rare 'live speech during the quiet period' [8] July 23 - At 22:00, the EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary value of the eurozone's July consumer confidence index, expected to be - 14.5 [9] - At 22:00, the US National Association of Realtors will announce June's existing home sales, with an expected annualized total of 4 million households and an annualized monthly rate of - 0.7%. Lower values may suppress non - ferrous metal futures prices [10] - At 22:30, the EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending July 18. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [11] July 24 - At 9:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the mid - July market prices of important production materials [12] - At 16:00, S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the eurozone's July SPGI manufacturing PMI, expected to be 49.8. A slight increase may slightly boost non - ferrous metal futures prices [13] - At 20:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference by President Lagarde at 20:45 [15] - At 20:30, the US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19, expected to be 215,000. A slight decrease may slightly boost non - gold and non - silver industrial product futures but suppress gold and silver futures [14] - At 21:45, S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the US July SPGI manufacturing PMI, expected to be 53.5. A slight increase may slightly boost non - ferrous metal futures prices [16] - At 22:00, the US Department of Commerce will announce June's new home sales, with an expected seasonally adjusted annualized total of 650,000 households and an annualized monthly rate of 4.3%. Higher values may boost non - ferrous metal futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [17] July 25 - At 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will announce the preliminary monthly rate of June's durable goods orders, expected to be - 11%. A significant decrease may suppress non - ferrous metal futures but boost gold and silver futures [18] July 27 - At 09:30, China's National Bureau of Statistics will announce June's industrial enterprise profits [19]

Group 1 - The EU is considering lowering tariffs on a range of US imports to quickly reach a trade agreement with President Trump [2] - The US Treasury announced an agreement with G7 allies to protect US companies from certain taxes imposed by other countries, in exchange for removing the "899 retaliatory tax clause" from the "big and beautiful" tax reform [2] - The Federal Reserve Governor Daly indicated that increasing evidence suggests tariffs may not lead to significant or lasting inflation, which could support the case for interest rate cuts in the fall [2] Group 2 - The US real GDP for the first quarter declined at an annualized rate of 0.5%, a drop greater than the expected decline of 0.2%, marking the first contraction in three years [3] - The final value of US personal consumption was significantly revised down to only a 0.5% increase, the weakest quarterly performance since the COVID-19 pandemic began [4] - The core PCE price index in the US was revised up to 3.5%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [5] Group 3 - US initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, below the expected 245,000, while the previous week's continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021 [5] - US durable goods orders for May showed an initial month-on-month increase of 16.4%, the largest increase since July 2014, significantly exceeding the expected 8.5% [5] Group 4 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 404.41 points to 43,386.84; the S&P 500 increased by 48.86 points to 6,141.02; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 194.36 points to 20,167.91 [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that U.S. durable goods orders for May showed a preliminary month-over-month increase of 16.4%, significantly exceeding the forecast of 8.5% [1]

Core Insights - In May, U.S. durable goods orders showed a preliminary month-over-month increase of 16.4%, significantly exceeding the expected growth of 8.5% and rebounding from a previous decline of 6.3% [1] Summary by Category - **Durable Goods Orders Performance** - The preliminary figure for May indicates a robust recovery in durable goods orders, suggesting strong demand in the manufacturing sector [1] - The substantial increase of 16.4% reflects a positive shift in consumer and business spending patterns [1] - **Comparative Analysis** - The current month's performance contrasts sharply with the previous month's decline of 6.3%, highlighting a significant turnaround in economic activity [1] - **Market Implications** - The better-than-expected results may influence market sentiment positively, potentially leading to increased investment in related sectors [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of key economic indicators, including the final GDP for the first quarter in the United States, preliminary durable goods orders for May, and the trade balance for goods [1] - Additionally, it mentions the weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending June 21 [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that U.S. durable goods orders for April decreased by 6.3% month-over-month, matching the forecast of a 6.3% decline [1]

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued its upward momentum, reaching a weekly high of 99.80, driven by improved economic data, although the rally lacks strong momentum [1] - Key factors supporting the dollar's rise include better-than-expected US durable goods orders and consumer confidence data. April durable goods orders fell by 6.3%, but this was better than the market expectation of -7.9%. Core orders, excluding transportation, increased by 0.2% month-on-month, alleviating recession concerns [2] - The US consumer confidence index unexpectedly surged to 98 in May, a significant increase of 12.3 points from April's 85.7, marking the largest monthly gain in four years. This reflects improved market expectations regarding the economy and employment prospects [2] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a daily high of 3350 and a low of 3285, closing below 3300. The focus is on whether the price can break below 3280, with potential targets at 3260 and 3250 [3] - On May 28, gold maintained a volatile trend, opening at $3301.80 per ounce, reaching a high of $3315.45 and a low of $3291.45, with a current price of $3307.09, reflecting a slight increase of 0.19% [4]

Group 1 - COMEX silver inventory recorded at 15,448.95 tons on May 27, an increase of 18.91 tons from the previous day [1] - COMEX silver price on May 27 closed at $33.38 per ounce, down 0.77%, with a daily high of $33.74 and a low of $32.88 [1] - Recent data shows fluctuations in COMEX silver inventory, with a decrease of 56.28 tons on May 22 [2] Group 2 - Market sentiment improved as participants digested news of trade negotiations between the US and EU, following President Trump's threat of a 50% tariff [2] - Positive US consumer confidence data for May contributed to a rise in the dollar index, which increased by over 0.62% to 99.54 [2] - US durable goods orders fell sharply in April, reaching the lowest level since October 2020 [2] Group 3 - In Europe, inflation data indicates an improvement in the deflationary process, potentially opening the door for further easing by the European Central Bank (ECB) [3] - ECB's Gediminas Simkus noted the possibility of a rate cut in June, while some ECB members have adopted a slightly hawkish stance [3] - EU economic sentiment indicators improved for the first time in three months in May, aligning with Germany's GfK consumer confidence index for June [3]