Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of wealth management in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, emphasizing the transition from "scale expansion" to "quality enhancement" in the industry, particularly in Shenzhen, which is a key engine for development in the region [1]. Group 1: Current Trends in Wealth Management - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is deepening, with Shenzhen experiencing a faster pace compared to the national average. This trend is seen as an opportunity for wealth management upgrades rather than a crisis of deposit loss [2]. - The "deposit migration" is driven by a combination of low interest rates, a recovering capital market, and the expiration of excess savings, indicating a reallocation of household wealth [2][3]. - The customer base in Shenzhen is characterized by youth, high net worth, and a strong presence of technology finance, leading to diverse and rapid flows of wealth [3]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts in Wealth Management - The Postal Savings Bank of Shenzhen is transitioning from a "savings bank" to a "wealth management bank," focusing on professional capabilities, technological empowerment, and cross-border advantages to provide superior services to high net worth clients [2][3]. - The bank aims to establish deeper customer trust by shifting from merely selling products to providing asset allocation and accompanying services, which is seen as a long-term strategy to enhance competitive advantage [3]. Group 3: Product and Service Development - The bank is committed to creating "Shenzhen characteristic combinations" tailored to different customer segments, emphasizing appropriate product matching and risk management [4]. - A focus on digital technology is being implemented to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency, with the goal of building a comprehensive wealth management digital capability [6]. - The bank has established a wealth management system with differentiated services for various customer tiers, including mass affluent and high net worth clients, since 2019 [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Competitive Strategy - For 2026, the bank plans to enhance its competitive edge in wealth management by integrating financial services into key customer scenarios and providing tailored experiences for different demographics [7]. - The bank will promote a range of financial products, including investment products, insurance, and precious metals, to meet the diverse needs of its clientele [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][10]. Core Insights - The company has released a performance forecast indicating a significant increase in net profit and a record high in contract liabilities, laying a solid foundation for 2026 performance. The retention of existing customers remains strong, and market trading continues to be active, leading to an optimistic outlook for future performance [2][10]. - The company reported a revenue of 34.3 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.74%. The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 9.01 billion, 13.77 billion, and 15.74 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 231%, 53%, and 14% respectively [10][11]. - The company maintains a target price of 89 HKD, corresponding to a 27x P/E ratio for 2026 [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,306 million RMB in 2024 to 3,430 million RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 48.74%. The net profit is expected to increase from 272 million RMB in 2024 to 901 million RMB in 2025, marking a growth of 230.76% [4][11]. - The company's contract liabilities reached 1.53 billion RMB, the highest in its history, with approximately 80% expected to be recognized as revenue in the following year, which is anticipated to support the company's performance in 2026 [10][11]. - The company has a strong cash position with cash and cash equivalents projected to increase from 2,209 million RMB in 2024 to 2,813 million RMB in 2025 [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][10]. Core Insights - The company has released a performance forecast indicating a significant increase in net profit and a record high in contract liabilities, laying a solid foundation for 2026 performance. The retention of existing customers remains strong, and market trading continues to be active, leading to an optimistic outlook for future performance [2][10]. - The company reported a revenue of 3.43 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.74%. The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 901 million, 1.377 billion, and 1.574 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 231%, 53%, and 14% respectively [10][11]. - The company has a total order amount of 3.955 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and contract liabilities of 1.53 billion RMB, which is the highest in history. Approximately 80% of contract liabilities are expected to be recognized as revenue in the following year, indicating a strong basis for 2026 performance [10][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2.306 billion RMB in 2024 to 4.705 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 17%, 49%, 21%, and 13% respectively [4][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 272 million RMB in 2024 to 1.574 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 43%, 231%, 53%, and 14% respectively [4][11]. - The company maintains a target price of 89 HKD, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 27x for 2026 [10].

农历腊月二十二，阳光洒满上海淮海中路，一串串红灯笼沿街悬挂。春节临近，年味渐浓。位于淮 海国际广场31楼的光大证券淮海中路营业部，仍有一拨拨投资者前来办理业务。 刚在该营业部办理完业务的陈先生告诉中国证券报记者，他做投资已有十多年的时间，在经历过几 轮市场周期后，心态发生了明显转变。他说："以前总想着追涨停、博短期高收益，现在无论是买股票 还是买理财产品，都更注重资产的保值增值和风险控制。"目前，陈先生配置的固收类产品占比过半， 权益类投资兼顾科技成长与高股息蓝筹，且通过ETF工具分散投资风险。 在王海的建议下，周磊的配置逐渐有了变化，以货币基金作为"安全垫"，新增"固收+"、多元资产 组合等中低波动产品，并通过ETF和可转债间接参与权益市场。"回撤小、睡得着，年化收益反而比以 前强。更关键的是，我再也不用天天盯盘，也能把精力放到本职工作及陪伴家人上，这才是双赢。"如 今，周磊成了王海所在营业部的"义务宣传员"，常带同事来咨询资产配置方案。 光大证券淮海中路营业部相关负责人告诉记者，近年来，居民理财意识普遍增强，更加追求资产多 元化配置，对基金、股票、保险等多种金融产品有配置需求。个人投资者对专业理财服务的依 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since 2026, listed banks have experienced intensive institutional research, particularly focusing on small and medium-sized banks in economically developed coastal regions [1] Group 1: Institutional Research and Credit Performance - As of February 9, 2026, 13 listed banks have undergone 54 institutional research sessions, with 386 participating institutions [2] - Key topics of interest include the performance of credit in the "opening red" period, the "14th Five-Year Plan," asset-liability management, and wealth management [2] - Multiple analysts noted that the credit performance in the opening of 2026 is strong, with banks actively developing wealth management and other intermediary businesses [2][4] Group 2: Focus on Credit Allocation - Credit allocation is primarily directed towards the technology and innovation sectors [3] - Banks reported that their credit issuance aligns with expectations, with overall performance better than the previous year [4] - For instance, Suzhou Bank and Hangzhou Bank indicated a good start to the "opening red" period, with increased credit issuance compared to the same period last year [4] - Shanghai Bank focuses on major strategic projects in Shanghai, while also expanding housing mortgages and loans for new energy vehicles in retail [4] Group 3: Intermediary Business Income - Banks are looking to expand intermediary business income as a core strategy to address margin pressure, with wealth management being a key area of focus [6][7] - Analysts from various banks believe that wealth management will continue to improve, driven by active capital market performance and a favorable environment for fee income [7] - The trend of "deposit migration" is not significantly observed, with many banks reporting an increase in new deposits compared to the previous year [7] Group 4: Preliminary Annual Performance Reports - As of February 9, 2026, 11 listed banks have released preliminary performance reports, showing positive growth in operating income and net profit [8][9] - Notably, Qingdao Bank and Qilu Bank reported net profit growth of 21.66% and 14.58%, respectively [9][10] Group 5: Asset Quality and Growth Trends - The asset scale of the listed banks has shown steady expansion, with many small and medium-sized banks growing at rates exceeding 10% [12] - The non-performing loan ratio remains stable, with no significant rebound observed [12] - Analysts expect that the recent implementation of structural monetary policy tools by the central bank will help stabilize net interest margin expectations and enhance credit issuance willingness [12]

文/ 建信信托有限责任公司财富管理业务部 周萱 "完善地方税、直接税体系，健全经营所得、资本所得、财产所得税收政 策，规范税收优惠政策，保持合理的宏观税负水平。坚决破除阻碍全国统 一大市场建设卡点堵点，完善有利于统一大市场建设的统计、财税、考核 制度，优化企业总部和分支机构、生产地和消费地利益分享。坚持扩大内 需，支持高新技术企业和科技型中小企业发展。"同时围绕统一的全国大 市场建设、科技创新、民生保障、绿色转型、促进消费等战略部署，配套 实施针对性税收调控措施。这表明，税务改革已成为衔接国家战略、市场 运行、个人生活的重要纽带，其根本导向是兼顾公平与效率，既服务于中 国式现代化大局，也深刻影响着微观主体的经营决策与财富布局。 十五五期间税务改革的方向 十五五规划勾勒出未来 5年我国税务改革的方向，将会在以下方面有重大的变化。 以统一大市场为导向，清理区域化的税收政策 。为破除全国统一大市场建设阻碍，将全面清理税收洼地、区域性税收补贴、违规税收返还、核定征收等 地方性税务减免措施。 2025年4月发布的《税收征管法（征求意见稿）》也反映了上述趋势。 "任何机关、单位和个人不得违反法律、行政法规和国务院 的规定 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Guosen Securities [3] Core Insights - Guosen Securities is positioned to strengthen its ROE advantage, supported by its robust profitability and strategic positioning in the Greater Bay Area [8] - The company has shown resilience in earnings, with a projected increase in net profit of 34% in 2026 and 20% in 2027, driven by policy benefits and market activity [8] - The business structure, focusing on self-operated investment and wealth management, underpins its high ROA advantage, while investment banking and asset management serve as growth points [8] Financial Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from 173.17 billion yuan in 2023 to 383.89 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 17% [2] - Net profit is projected to increase from 64.27 billion yuan in 2023 to 189.67 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 20% [2] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.63 yuan in 2023 to 1.85 yuan in 2027, indicating strong earnings growth [2] Business Analysis - The investment and trading business is a key driver of performance, with significant revenue growth of 56.49% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [50] - Wealth management serves as a stabilizing force, with brokerage income showing a substantial increase of 109.30% year-on-year [66] - The investment banking segment remains competitive, with a focus on equity underwriting, particularly in the technology sector [80] Competitive Advantages - Guosen Securities benefits from a strong foundation backed by state-owned assets, enhancing operational efficiency and market adaptability [8] - The company has established a leading position in the brokerage and asset management sectors, with a focus on technology-driven solutions to enhance client engagement [8] - Strategic acquisitions, such as the purchase of Wanhe Securities, position the company favorably within the cross-border financial services landscape [8]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the evolving wealth management needs of business owners and high-net-worth individuals, highlighting a shift from a focus on asset appreciation to a demand for security, certainty, and orderly wealth transfer [2][4][5]. Group 1: Wealth Management Risks - Business owners are facing a "risk cube" that includes economic cycle risks, corporate debt risks, tax risks, marital risks, and inheritance risks, rather than just market volatility [4]. - Economic cycles, domestic macro and industrial policy adjustments, and the life cycle of businesses can lead to cash flow issues, potentially triggering personal wealth crises [4]. - Marital risks are increasingly significant, with cases of asset division during divorces highlighting the need for preemptive marital asset planning to protect family wealth and personal safety [4][5]. Group 2: Changing Wealth Management Demands - The core demand for wealth management has shifted from "value creation" to "safety," with high-net-worth individuals seeking systems that ensure their family's living standards and wealth transfer align with their intentions [5]. - The tightening of compliance and regulatory frameworks, such as the implementation of the "Golden Tax Phase IV" in China and the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) globally, has increased awareness of tax risks associated with overseas assets [5]. Group 3: Cross-Border Wealth Management - Effective cross-border wealth management requires establishing a top-level legal structure before selecting financial products, with trusts often serving as the core of this structure [7]. - Trusts can provide asset isolation and ensure that wealth is passed on according to the grantor's wishes, highlighting the importance of professional and compliant structure design [8]. Group 4: Comprehensive Wealth Solutions - A thorough assessment of family assets and tax risks is essential for creating tailored wealth management solutions, considering factors such as asset distribution, family member nationalities, and future immigration plans [10]. - The focus is on designing a comprehensive legal-financial framework that includes arrangements for business equity, family trusts, and investment management, rather than recommending single products [10][11]. Group 5: Value of Certainty in Wealth Management - The unique value proposition in wealth management lies in providing certainty amidst a world of variables, with a focus on reverse planning to clarify clients' ultimate goals [13]. - Establishing a clear legal framework for asset ownership is crucial, as it provides a reliable foundation for wealth management that does not depend on individual circumstances [13][14].

香港的单一家族办公室数量从2023年到去年底增长了25%，达到3384家，香港巩固其作为亚洲财富中心 地位的努力卓见成效。据德勤受香港特区政府委托进行的一项调查，截至2025年底，每个单一家族办公 室管理的资产至少为1000万美元，其中1095个管理资产超过1亿美元。调查数据显示，19%的单一家族 办公室计划在未来三年内减少其在美国的敞口，这一比例在调查的所有地区中最高。相比之下，60%计 划增加在香港的投资，且没有一家计划缩减。 随着香港将自身定位为连接中国内地及其资本市场的超级枢纽，越来越多的富裕人士在香港设立家族办 公室。去年，中国内地资本市场的表现优于全球主要基准指数。此外，高净值投资者减少对美国的投资 也支撑了资金流入。 截至2024年底，香港管理的资产达35.1万亿港元(4.5万亿美元)；到2025年中，香港拥有17215位超高净 值人士。 此前，香港特区政府已超额完成了到2025年吸引200家大型家族办公室的最初目标。修订后的目标是在 2026年至2028年间再吸引220家家族办公室。为了支持这一目标，当局放宽了资本投资入境计划的要 求，允许通过全资拥有的私人公司和家族拥有的投资工具进行的投资也 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.09 权益市场火热，居民边际配置权益资产 投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Industry] 2025 年 12 月财富管理月报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 张轩铭(分析师) | 021-38038437 | zhangxuanming@gtht.com | S0880526020001 | | 吴浩东(分析师) | 010-83939780 | wuhaodong@gtht.com | S0880524070001 | 本报告导读： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 投资银行业与经纪业《业绩基准新规落地，助推 行业长期发展》2026.01.24 投资银行业与经纪业《零售及自营业务驱动全年 高增》2026.01.20 投资银行业与经纪业《完善监管制度，打开稳步 发展长期空间 ...