现货黄金盘初持续走高，站上5000美元/盎司，现涨0.76%。现货白银日内涨2.5%，现报79.72美元/盎 司。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 现货黄金盘初持续走高，站上5000美元/盎司，现涨0.76%。现货白银日内涨2.5%，现报79.72美元/盎 司。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 ...

多家机构分析认为，近期贵金属市场波动加剧主要受到国际政治因素以及短期快速上涨下、市场投机情 绪的影响。从中长期视角来看，黄金市场的需求基本面没有改变，白银价格继续受到工业端持续增长的 生产需求支撑，整体看好金银价格的反弹空间。申银万国期货分析师陈梦赟表示，从长期来看，黄金上 行的支撑因素并未发生逆转，建议暂时观望。 所罗门全球市场分析师Nick Cawley表示，当前黄金剧烈波动只是短期噪音。预计在未来几周内金价将 再次突破5000美元，并在第二季度重新测试数十年来的5600美元高位。XS.com高级市场分析师Rania Gule表示，尽管短期内金价可能维持在每盎司5000美元以下，到年底仍有可能升至6000美元。市场尚未 耗尽看涨动力。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：钟离 ...

冰天雪地中，运动员们追逐的不仅仅是荣誉，还有一枚价值2300美元的"金块"——这届冬奥会的领奖台，变成了全球最特别的贵金属交易所。 令人意外的是，奥运金牌并非纯金打造。按照国际奥委会的规定，现代奥运金牌实际上是在银牌上镀了一层金。 一枚典型的冬奥金牌重约506克，其中仅含有6克纯金，其余500克均为白银。银牌则完全由约500克白银制成。 奥运会最后一次颁发纯金金牌是在1912年的斯德哥尔摩奥运会。当时的金牌仅重26克，按当年金价计算价值不足20美元，相当于今天的530美元。 2026年米兰-科尔蒂纳冬奥会正式拉开帷幕，然而在竞技场外，另一场关于价值的讨论已悄然升温。随着全球贵金属价格飙升，本届冬奥会颁发的奖牌成为 了历史上"最昂贵"的奖牌。 运动员站在领奖台上接受奖牌时，脖子上挂着的不仅是荣誉的象征，更是一份随全球贵金属市场起伏的"硬通货"。 此次冬奥会，一枚金牌的金属原料价值约2300美元，是2024年巴黎奥运会时的两倍多。银牌表现更为抢眼，价值接近1400美元，几乎是两年前的三倍。 就连看似不起眼的铜牌，其金属价值也达到了约5.6美元。 这场价值飙升的盛宴背后，是贵金属市场的疯狂表 白银价格的惊人上涨部分 ...

01 月度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 沃什被提名为联储主席， 金银价格大幅下跌 贵金属月报 2026/02/06 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 05 贵金属价差 01 月度评估及行情展望 月度总结 ◆ 月度行情总结：2026 年 1 月，贵金属市场的政策博弈与杠杆资金动向深度交织，共同主导了全月的价格涨跌与剧烈波动。市场完整经历了 "震荡上行-高位回调-月末修复"的走势：政策博弈是触发波动的核心因素，而杠杆资金的快速进出则显著放大了波动幅度。中上旬市场对 于美国降息预期升温叠加特朗普停征白银关税导致现货收紧等因素支撑，市场看涨情绪高度一致，杠杆资金加速入场助推金银价格走强，形 成共振上涨格局。 ◆ 1月下旬市场格局发生剧烈反转，短期波动进一步加剧。在海内外交易所先后上调金银保证金的背景下，1月29日特朗普提名沃什出任美联储 主席的消息引发宏观政策预期转向，市场看涨预期被快速逆转，直接触发杠杆资金大规模撤离，集中出逃 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, a series of macro - events led by the Wash nomination triggered a significant shock in the market, causing the global precious metals market to experience an accelerated correction. In the short - term, market volatility may remain high, but geopolitical uncertainties provide bottom support for gold prices. In the medium - to - long - term, as market sentiment stabilizes, the precious metals market may return to a pricing framework dominated by macro and fundamentals. With the cooling of inflation and employment data, there may be a mid - term easing expectation, and the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still holds, but it is recommended to wait and see due to short - term high volatility [6]. - The actual impact of Wash's election as the Fed Chairman on the interest - rate policy path may be relatively limited. If the cooling trend of inflation and employment data continues, the new Fed Chairman may adjust the interest - rate path and implement moderate interest - rate cuts. The support of medium - term easing expectations makes the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still valid, but short - term market fluctuations are intense, so it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the support levels of London gold at $4400 - 4500 per ounce and London silver at $55 - 60 per ounce [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Macro - events led to market shocks and a correction in the precious metals market. The cooling of the US employment market increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Profit - taking and market liquidity tightening increased the selling pressure on precious metals. The cancellation of the Iran - US negotiation provided bottom support for gold prices. The increase in margin requirements for gold and silver futures may intensify short - term market fluctuations [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the medium - to - long - term, the precious metals market may return to a macro - and fundamental - driven pricing framework. With the support of medium - term easing expectations, the logic of bottom - fishing still holds, but short - term high volatility suggests a wait - and - see approach. Focus on the support levels of London gold and silver [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the net position of gold ETFs decreased slightly, while that of silver ETFs increased [10]. - **COMEX Net Long Positions**: As of January 27, 2025, the net long positions of both COMEX gold and silver decreased [15][20]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened week - on - week [21][25]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference**: This week, the domestic - foreign price difference of gold and silver continued to converge [26][28]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the inventory of silver continued to decline significantly [29][31]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - silver ratio continued to rebound [32][35]. 3. Industry Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of December 2025, the import of silver and silver ore increased significantly. The output of semiconductor integrated circuits increased due to the growth of silver demand in the semiconductor industry [37][41][43]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold. The total global gold demand reached a record high [45][47]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand decreased slightly, narrowing the market shortage [48][50]. 4. Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: This week, the US dollar index strengthened, and the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose by nearly 2%. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury bond yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility declined, and the ratio of the S&P 500 to the London gold price increased significantly. Central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold, providing long - term structural support for gold prices [51][56][60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the platinum and palladium markets weakened significantly due to the continuous rebound of the US dollar index, the shift in macro - expectations driven by the nomination event of Fed's Waller, and the concentrated release of long - position profit - taking in the precious metals market. The platinum main 2606 contract fell 19.75% to 506 yuan/gram, and the palladium main 2606 contract fell 11.54% to 410.50 yuan/gram [7]. - US macro data such as ISM services PMI and ADP employment data were slightly below market expectations, and the domestic lay - off level remained at a historical high. The labor market's cooling trend continued, strengthening the mid - term interest rate cut expectation. Although the Waller nomination event caused a shock in the precious metals market and was interpreted as hawkish, there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut this year, which may potentially support the precious metals market in the medium term [7]. - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban at the end of last year and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the platinum loading intensity. Although global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum [7]. - In the short term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue, and the platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range shock pattern affected by the price fluctuations of gold and silver. The support level range for London platinum is 1,800 - 1,900 US dollars/ounce, and for London palladium is 1,500 - 1,600 US dollars/ounce [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Platinum and palladium markets weakened significantly this week, with the platinum main 2606 contract down 19.75% to 506 yuan/gram and the palladium main 2606 contract down 11.54% to 410.50 yuan/gram [7]. - US macro data supported mid - term interest rate cut expectations, and although the Waller event was hawkish - interpreted, there is still an interest rate cut expectation this year, potentially supporting the precious metals market [7]. - EU policies and the development of new - energy commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand for platinum [7]. - Short - term high - volatility in the precious metals market may continue, and platinum and palladium will likely show a wide - range shock pattern [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The precious metals market had a deep correction this week. Platinum and palladium futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped significantly. As of February 6, 2026, the palladium main 2606 contract was at 410.50 yuan/gram, down 11.54% for the week, and the platinum main 2606 contract was at 506 yuan/gram, down 19.75% for the week [8][12]. - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of January 27, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 22,026 contracts, a 1.12% increase, and that of palladium was - 2,840 contracts, a 2.82% decrease [13][16]. - The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened this week. As of February 5, 2026, the NYMEX platinum basis was - 56 US dollars/ounce, and the palladium basis was 124 US dollars/ounce [17][21]. - NYMEX platinum inventory increased slightly, and palladium inventory decreased significantly. As of February 5, 2026, platinum inventory was 662,618.73 ounces, a 1.14% increase, and palladium inventory was 190,873.50 ounces, a 14.80% decrease [22][25]. - Platinum and gold prices showed high synchronicity, with more significant platinum price fluctuations, and the gold - platinum ratio rebounded this week [26]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased [31]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts decreased marginally, and the total demand for global platinum and palladium showed a mild slowdown [36][40]. - Due to geopolitical conflicts and power supply disturbances, the global supply of platinum and palladium declined [45]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign platinum and palladium converged [49]. 3.4 Macro and Options (Macro Data) - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue. The platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range fluctuation pattern affected by the gold price. The support level range for London platinum is $1900 - 2000 per ounce, and for London palladium, it is $1500 - 1600 per ounce. [2] - The cooling trend in the US labor market continues, strengthening the medium - term interest rate cut expectation. Against the background of Trump's mid - term election pressure and Wash's past policy flexibility, the Fed's easing path is likely to continue. [2] - The EU's formal postponement of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthening of vehicle exhaust emission standards at the end of last year bring higher platinum loading intensity. Although the global passenger car sales are moderately adjusted due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 540.30 yuan/gram, down 46.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 442.70 yuan/gram, down 8.90 yuan. [2] - The holding volume of the platinum main contract is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the holding volume of the palladium main contract is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 546.47 yuan/gram, down 41.63 yuan; the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 433.00 yuan/gram, up 16.00 yuan. [2] - The basis of the platinum main contract is 6.17 yuan/gram, up 5.12 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract is - 9.70 yuan/gram, up 24.90 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly) are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC (weekly) are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. [2] - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. [2] - The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.63, up 0.26; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.94%, up 0.02%. [2] - The VIX volatility index is 18.64, up 0.64. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US ISM Services PMI in January slightly declined to 53.8, better than market expectations. Business activity rebounded, but new order growth slowed, and export orders shrank at the fastest pace since March 2023. Employment hardly expanded, and the price index reached a three - month high. [2] - The US ADP added 22,000 new jobs in January, far lower than the market expectation of 48,000. The previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January non - farm employment report on February 11, job vacancy data on February 5, and reschedule the release of January CPI on February 13. [2] - Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi clarified the official stance on Iran's talks with the US in Oman, saying the negotiation will be held in Muscat, Oman's capital, around 10 a.m. on February 6. [2] - The Fed announced that it will not adjust the capital level of large - scale banks in the 2026 stress - test cycle and is currently considering multiple reforms to improve transparency. [2] - The Eurozone's CPI in January increased by only 1.7% year - on - year, the lowest level since September 2024. The core CPI dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021. Service inflation slowed to 3.2%. The market expects the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged this week. [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The European Central Bank's interest rate decision will be announced on February 5 at 21:15. [2] - The release time of the US January non - farm employment report is to be determined. [2]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices experienced a significant decline after a record rebound, with the market struggling to find support, while gold prices also fell in tandem [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Silver saw a maximum intraday drop of 17%, previously reaching nearly $90 per ounce, but has since retreated over one-third from its historical high on January 29 [1] - Gold prices fluctuated, with a maximum intraday drop of 3.5%, currently reported at $4,929.45 per ounce [1] - The decline in precious metals negatively impacted base metal market sentiment, with copper prices dropping over 1% to below $13,000 per ton [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Influences - Analysts from ANZ noted that gold struggled to maintain its previous gains due to a lack of further buying catalysts, with a strong dollar dampening investor appetite [1] - Market sentiment across various asset classes, including regional stocks and metals, is low, creating a negative feedback loop amid insufficient market liquidity [2] Group 3: Speculative Activity and Future Outlook - Last month, precious metal prices surged due to speculative funds, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, but this rally abruptly halted [4] - Analysts from Standard Chartered indicated that gold prices may remain volatile until monetary policy outlooks become clearer, with structural drivers for precious metals still intact [5] - The volatility in silver prices is exacerbated by smaller market size and weaker liquidity, with significant speculative inflows amplifying price fluctuations [5]

Group 1: Gold Production and Consumption - In 2025, domestic gold production reached 381.339 tons, an increase of 4.097 tons or 1.09% year-on-year. Imported gold production was 170.681 tons, up by 13.817 tons or 8.81% year-on-year, leading to a total gold production of 552.020 tons, which is an increase of 17.914 tons or 3.35% year-on-year [1] - The overseas gold production of major Chinese gold groups steadily increased, achieving approximately 90 tons, a year-on-year growth of 25% [1] - Gold consumption in China was 950.096 tons, a decrease of 3.57% year-on-year. Notably, gold jewelry consumption fell by 31.61% to 363.836 tons, while gold bars and coins saw a significant increase of 35.14% to 504.238 tons [1] Group 2: Market Activity and Price Trends - By the end of December 2025, the London spot gold fixing price was $4307.95 per ounce, up 62.90% from the beginning of the year, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange Au9999 closing price was 974.90 yuan per gram, an increase of 58.78% [2] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a total trading volume of 31,400 tons (62,900 tons double-sided) for all gold varieties, a year-on-year increase of 1.02%, with a total trading value of 24.93 trillion yuan (49.86 trillion yuan double-sided), up 43.89% [1] - Domestic gold ETF saw an annual increase in holdings of 133.118 tons, a growth of 149.91% compared to 53.266 tons in 2024, bringing total holdings to 247.852 tons by the end of December [2] Group 3: Regulatory Responses and Central Bank Activities - In response to significant fluctuations in precious metal prices, exchanges like the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange quickly adjusted trading limits, margin ratios, and transaction fees to stabilize market expectations and maintain orderly market operations [2] - Global central banks continued to increase their gold reserves, with China adding 26.75 tons of gold in 2025, marking 14 consecutive months of increases, bringing total reserves to 2306.32 tons by the end of December [2]

据中国黄金协会最新统计数据显示：2025年，国内原料产金381.339吨，同比增加4.097吨，同比增长 1.09%。进口原料产金170.681吨，同比增加13.817吨，同比增长8.81%。国内原料和进口原料共计生产 黄金552.020吨，同比增加17.914吨，同比增长3.35%。 2025年12月底，伦敦现货黄金定盘价为4307.95美元/盎司，较年初2644.60美元/盎司上涨62.90%；上海 黄金交易所Au9999黄金收盘价为974.90元/克，较年初开盘价614.00元/克上涨58.78%。11月底，广州期 货交易所上市铂钯期货、期权品种，进一步丰富我国贵金属衍生品市场体系。针对贵金属价格大幅波动 的市场情况，上海黄金交易所、上海期货交易所、广州期货交易所快速响应市场变化，通过调整涨跌停 板幅度、保证金比例、交易费用及限额、风险提示等措施，引导市场预期，筑牢风险防线，切实维护贵 金属市场的平稳有序运行。 2025年，国内黄金ETF全年增仓量为133.118吨，较2024年全年增仓量53.266吨增长149.91%。至12月 底，国内黄金ETF持仓量为247.852吨。 全球央行持续增持黄金。从2 ...