Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The report suggests that the medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals may be bullish. For the short - term, the volatility of London gold is continuously narrowing, and attention should be paid to the support at the 3300 level and the short - term direction choice. The support level for London silver is around 37.3. The operation strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market was generally volatile. The market fluctuated sharply due to the news that Trump might fire Powell in advance. The US dollar index is facing key resistance at 99 (60 - day moving average) and 100. The 10Y US Treasury yield is approaching the 4.5% watershed, which may have a negative impact on precious metals in the short term. The influence of the US dollar's appreciation on RMB - denominated precious metals is relatively limited. The surrounding US stocks fluctuated slightly higher, Bitcoin rose, crude oil fluctuated, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals fluctuated [2]. - COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3354.2 per ounce, up 0.52%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.125 per ounce, up 0.04%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 776.66 yuan per gram, down 0.2%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9152 yuan per kilogram, down 0.35% [2]. - Fed's permanent voting member Williams said that the US economy is expected to grow by about 1% this year, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% by the end of the year. The overall inflation rate in June may be 2.5%, and the core inflation rate may be 2.75%. Tariffs are in the "initial stage" of affecting the economy and are expected to push up the inflation rate by one percentage point in the remaining time of 2025 and in 2026 [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that from the end of May to the beginning of July, economic activity increased slightly, and the economic outlook was neutral to slightly pessimistic. Only two regions expected economic activity to grow, while other regions expected it to remain flat or decline slightly [2]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut in September has slightly cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 4.1%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 43.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 2.2%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 19.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 48.3%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 31%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 1.3% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 3.15 tons to 950.79 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 36.73 tons to 14819.29 tons. For inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.9 tons to 1212.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 7.3 tons to 1327.2 tons in the week ending July 4 [3]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week, focus on the US retail sales data and weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday evening. At 22:00 on Thursday, Fed Governor Kugler will speak on the housing market and the outlook for the US economy [4]. 4. Price and Inventory Tables - The precious metals' futures and spot price table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver, SGX gold and silver, CME gold and silver, etc. For example, SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 776.66 yuan per gram, down 0.48% [6]. - The inventory and holding table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and holdings, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver holdings. For example, SHFE gold inventory is 28872 kilograms, with no change [14]. 5. Other Market Data - The stock - bond - commodity summary table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US stocks, crude oil, copper, US Treasury yields, etc. For example, the US dollar index is at 98.3222, down 0.31% [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The erosion of the Fed's independence is the main theme for future trading in the precious metals market. Expectations of a loose monetary policy will drive the prices of gold and silver higher, and silver will benefit more from this expectation. It is recommended to focus on long - position opportunities in silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 759 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9020 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - Shanghai Gold rose 0.68% to 778.42 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 2.38% to 9232.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 0.58% to 3383.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 0.41% to 39.12 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.43%, and the US dollar index was 97.97 [2]. - For other assets, the US 10 - year Treasury yield rose 0.08 percentage points to 4.43%, the TIPS rose 0.05 percentage points to 2.06%, the US dollar index rose 0.28 to 97.8731, and the offshore RMB exchange rate fell 0.04 to 7.2545. Stock indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all declined, while the VIX index rose 0.62 to 16.40 [4]. Market Outlook - The divergence in the views of Fed voting members reflects not only their hawkish or dovish tendencies but also the significant interference of the Trump administration in the Fed's independence. Figures like Bowman and Waller, who support a July rate cut, are more influenced by Trump's stance on monetary policy than the current US inflation and economic situation. Trump has expressed strong dissatisfaction with Powell and called for an immediate rate cut and even his resignation [2]. Gold and Silver Data Details - **Gold**: In COMEX, the closing price of the active contract rose 1.12% to 3370.30 dollars/ounce, the trading volume rose 39.51% to 20.70 million lots, the open interest rose 1.25% to 44.31 million lots, and the inventory fell 0.09% to 1143 tons. In SHFE, the closing price of the active contract rose 0.03% to 773.56 yuan/gram, the trading volume rose 9.26% to 29.02 million lots, the open interest fell 1.03% to 39.16 million lots, and the inventory remained unchanged at 24.59 tons. The precipitation funds in SHFE gold decreased by 0.99% to 484.62 billion yuan [6]. - **Silver**: In COMEX, the closing price of the active contract rose 3.85% to 39.08 dollars/ounce, the open interest fell 0.47% to 16.28 million lots, and the inventory fell 0.12% to 15394 tons. In SHFE, the closing price of the active contract rose 1.36% to 9040.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume rose 141.85% to 168.64 million lots, the open interest rose 9.41% to 95.70 million lots, and the inventory rose 0.50% to 1303.59 tons. The precipitation funds in SHFE silver increased by 10.90% to 233.59 billion yuan [6].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1362.546, down by 16.228 or 1.18% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1120.423, up by 4.285 or 0.38% [2] - Gold (COMEX GC) is priced at 3304.200, down by 6.800 or 0.21% [2] - Silver (COMEX SI) is priced at 36.615, down by 0.310 or 0.84% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to US Dollar (EURUSD) is at 1.171, down by 0.11% [3] - British Pound to US Dollar (GBPUSD) is at 1.359, up by 0.01% [3] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USDJPY) is at 146.488, down by 0.05% [3] - Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUDUSD) is at 0.654, up by 0.11% [3] - US Dollar to Swiss Franc (USDCHF) is at 0.795, down by 0.06% [3] Group 3: Virtual Currency - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 109443.990, up by 521.010 or 0.48% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 88.790, up by 1.030 or 1.17% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2664.260, up by 49.010 or 1.87% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 2.375, up by 0.064 or 2.77% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond is 3.876, down by 0.033 or 0.84% [6] - The yield on the 5-year US Treasury bond is 3.953, down by 0.034 or 0.85% [7] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is 4.386, down by 0.030 or 0.68% [7] - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond is 4.916, down by 0.030 or 0.61% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.610, down by 0.024 or 0.52% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.632, down by 0.012 or 0.45% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.355, down by 0.005 or 0.15% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.548, down by 0.013 or 0.37% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.513, up by 0.027 or 1.82% [7]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1376.506, showing an increase of 7.008 or 0.51% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1118.302, with a rise of 4.240 or 0.38% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is trading at 3345.600, down by 0.800 or 0.02% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is at 36.950, slightly up by 0.010 or 0.03% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.174, increasing by 0.30% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.363, up by 0.20% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 146.111, with a slight increase of 0.03% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.651, rising by 0.33% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.797, decreasing by 0.16% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin is priced at 107880.120, down by 382.820 or 0.35% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is at 85.760, decreasing by 0.290 or 0.34% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 2531.090, down by 11.200 or 0.44% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is at 2.257, decreasing by 0.014 or 0.61% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond is at 3.893 [6] - The yield on the 5-year US Treasury bond is at 3.960, down by 0.006 or 0.15% [7] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is at 4.388, decreasing by 0.007 or 0.16% [7] - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond is at 4.917, down by 0.013 or 0.26% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is at 4.577, decreasing by 0.014 or 0.30% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is at 2.606, increasing by 0.040 or 1.54% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is at 3.321, up by 0.042 or 1.28% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is at 3.517, increasing by 0.045 or 1.30% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is at 1.476, up by 0.011 or 0.75% [7]

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged significantly this year, reaching over $37 per ounce in June, marking a nearly decade-high [1] - Domestic silver prices also exceeded 8.46 yuan per gram, indicating strong upward momentum [1] - Sales of investment silver bars increased by 20% in June compared to May, with consumers showing high interest in one-kilogram and 500-gram silver bars [3] Group 2 - The demand for silver investment products, such as silver bars and silver ingots, has seen a year-on-year increase of over 40% due to rising prices [4] - Some investors are choosing to sell their silver products for profit, while others are entering the market to purchase silver [5] - The silver recycling process involves purity testing and melting, with a low incidence of counterfeit silver reported [5] Group 3 - The silver market has experienced a supply shortage for five consecutive years, driven by increased industrial demand from sectors like electric vehicles, AI, semiconductors, and 5G [7] - Current silver prices are at a critical resistance level of $37 per ounce, with expectations that this level may be broken, influenced by international capital flows and potential long-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7] - Platinum prices have also surged by 36% this year, surpassing gold's price increase, indicating a broader trend in precious metals [9] Group 4 - The market for precious metals, including silver and platinum, is becoming increasingly popular, but experts advise consumers to remain rational and avoid impulsive buying due to significant geopolitical influences on market volatility [14]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1359.948, increasing by 8.048 or 0.60% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1123.684, increasing by 16.944 or 1.53% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3359.100, increasing by 44.100 or 1.33% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 36.575, increasing by 0.245 or 0.67% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) increased by 0.13% to 1.180 [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) remained unchanged at 1.373 [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) decreased by 0.63% to 143.114 [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) decreased by 0.15% to 0.657 [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) decreased by 0.45% [3] Group 3: Virtual Currency - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 106427.170, decreasing by 719.330 or 0.67% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 85.020, decreasing by 0.980 or 1.14% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2433.590, decreasing by 51.880 or 2.09% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 2.186, decreasing by 0.050 or 2.24% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 3.740, increasing by 0.019 or 0.51% [6] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 3.811, increasing by 0.017 or 0.45% [7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.235, increasing by 0.033 or 0.79% [7] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.765, decreasing by 0.010 or 0.21% [7] - The 10-year UK Treasury yield is at 4.439, decreasing by 0.051 or 1.14% [7] - The 10-year German Treasury yield is at 2.562, decreasing by 0.035 or 1.35% [7] - The 10-year French Treasury yield is at 3.252, decreasing by 0.021 or 0.64% [7] - The 10-year Italian Treasury yield is at 3.468, decreasing by 0.025 or 0.72% [7] - The 10-year Japanese Treasury yield is at 1.394, decreasing by 0.032 or 2.24% [7]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices showed a strong performance, with spot silver rising nearly 1% to $36.63 per ounce, reaching a high of $36.81 since June 18, indicating potential for further increases if it breaks above $37.50 [1] - Platinum and palladium prices surged, with palladium increasing over 8% to $1,136.68 per ounce, a new high since October 31, 2024, and platinum rising 5.1% to $1,423.26 per ounce, close to its highest level since September 2014 [1] - The rise in platinum and palladium prices is primarily driven by speculative buying, as investors believe the market is tight and prices are undervalued [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reported increased demand for platinum jewelry in China, exacerbating the supply-demand gap and pushing prices higher [1] - Short-term speculation may lead platinum prices to spike to $1,500, but a subsequent drop to $1,200 is anticipated, while palladium may fall to around $1,050 by mid-July [1] Economic Context - The performance of gold prices is closely linked to U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policies, with the market optimistic about potential interest rate cuts [2] - The U.S. stock market saw a broad increase, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq approaching historical highs, reflecting optimism about three expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - Mixed economic data presents a challenge, with Q1 GDP revised down to a contraction of 0.5% and consumer spending growth downgraded from 1.2% to 0.5%, indicating weakening economic momentum [2] - The labor market shows signs of strain, with initial jobless claims rising to the highest level since November 2021, suggesting a slowdown in hiring due to tariff policies and economic uncertainty [2] - Durable goods orders rebounded by 16.4% due to strong demand for commercial aircraft, but overall economic activity signals remain soft [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a wait-and-see approach regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation [3] - Richmond Fed President Barkin and San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that tariff effects could justify a rate cut in the fall, but a July cut is considered premature [3] - Market expectations show a 90% probability of a September rate cut, while the probability for July is only 20%, highlighting a divergence in views [3] - The importance of PCE data is emphasized as a potential catalyst for short-term gold price fluctuations [3] - The U.S. dollar and Treasury market performance also significantly influence gold prices, with the dollar falling to its lowest levels against the euro and pound since 2021 [3] Market Trends - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation phase, suggesting strategies for support long positions and resistance short positions [6] - Technical indicators for silver show K-line operating near the lower band, with support at $35.69 [7] - MACD indicators suggest a downward trend, with market activity decreasing, advising caution in trading and recommending light positions [7] - Suggested trading strategies include placing short positions near $37.00 with a stop loss at $37.38 and a take profit target between $35.90 and $335.60 [7]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1287.270, increasing by 17.640 or 1.39% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1072.851, increasing by 28.742 or 2.75% [2] - Gold (COMEX GC) is priced at 3398.000, increasing by 13.600 or 0.40% [2] - Silver (COMEX SI) is priced at 36.145, increasing by 0.195 or 0.54% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) decreased by 0.30% to 1.149 [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) decreased by 0.18% to 1.342 [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) increased by 0.82% to 147.298 [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) decreased by 0.85% to 0.640 [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) decreased by 0.12% to 0.817 [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 101999.990, increasing by 1036.120 or 1.03% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 81.820, increasing by 1.610 or 2.01% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2289.400, increasing by 61.700 or 2.77% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 2.024, increasing by 0.007 or 0.35% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.887 [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.928, decreasing by 0.033 or 0.83% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.338, decreasing by 0.037 or 0.85% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.861, decreasing by 0.028 or 0.57% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.511, decreasing by 0.030 or 0.66% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.502, decreasing by 0.013 or 0.52% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.231, decreasing by 0.014 or 0.43% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.514, decreasing by 0.013 or 0.37% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.409, increasing by 0.016 or 1.15% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The platinum market is experiencing a significant surge in demand and price, with platinum prices surpassing 300 yuan per gram and a year-to-date increase of over 36%, outpacing gold's growth [1][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In the Shenzhen Shui Bei market, there is a noticeable increase in jewelry merchants purchasing platinum, driven by rising gold prices leading consumers to shift towards platinum [1]. - Sales volume of platinum has risen from 150-200 kg per month to potentially 400-500 kg during peak periods, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [3]. - Many jewelry stalls have reduced their gold sales space or completely transitioned to selling platinum due to the increased demand and better profit margins associated with platinum [5][7]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The surge in platinum prices is attributed to strong demand growth, with China becoming the largest retail investment market for platinum, surpassing North America in Q1 [11]. - On the supply side, platinum production is heavily concentrated in South Africa, which has seen a decline in output, contributing to a tightening supply situation [13]. - The current price of platinum futures has reached over $1300 per ounce, marking a five-year high, reflecting the ongoing high demand and limited supply [9].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1308.760, showing an increase of 2.520 or 0.19% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1047.500, with a rise of 10.000 or 0.96% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is trading at 3377.000, down by 10.400 or 0.31% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is at 36.320, decreasing by 0.040 or 0.11% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to US Dollar (EURUSD) is at 1.152, increasing by 0.19% [4] - British Pound to US Dollar (GBPUSD) is at 1.348, up by 0.10% [4] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USDJPY) is at 145.327, down by 0.09% [4] - Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUDUSD) is at 0.648, decreasing by 0.04% [4] - US Dollar to Swiss Franc (USDCHF) is at 0.816, down by 0.02% [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 104524.000, down by 140.230 or 0.13% [5] - Litecoin (LTC) is at 84.890, decreasing by 0.220 or 0.26% [5] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2523.990, increasing by 2.870 or 0.11% [5] - Ripple (XRP) is at 2.162, down by 0.003 or 0.15% [5] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond is at 3.929 [7] - The yield on the 5-year US Treasury bond is at 3.979, down by 0.010 or 0.25% [8] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is at 4.394, increasing by 0.035 or 0.80% [8] - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond is at 4.898, up by 0.002 or 0.04% [8] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is at 4.535, increasing by 0.002 or 0.04% [8] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is at 2.518, up by 0.020 or 0.80% [8] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is at 3.272, increasing by 0.057 or 1.77% [8] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is at 3.547, up by 0.070 or 2.01% [8] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond remains unchanged at 1.419 [8]