投资摘要: & Every exit is an entry somewhere else. 证券研究报告 【资产配置快评】 潜在通胀上行风险的政策约束加强 -- 6 月 美联储议息会议点评 2025年第4期 资产配置快评 2025年06月19日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:牛播坤 电话:010-66500825 邮箱:niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360514030002 证券分析师:郭忠良 电话:010-66500830 邮箱: guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360520090002 -Sir Tom Stoppard 1. 美联储 6月份议息会议宣布维持利率不变,对于经济前景不确定性的评估 倾向更加积极的预期。 2. 美联储下调美国经济增长预期,上调通胀预期,其中 2025年经济增长预期 值下调 0.3%至 1.4%,核心 PCE 预期值上调 0.3%至 3.1%。 3. 最新点阵图显示,2025年降息次数或仍为两次,2026年和2027年降息次 数均从2次降至1次。 4. 美联储对于高关税向通胀水平的传导保持高度警惕,同时对于货币政策限 制性的表达 ...

多资产配置研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】 潜在通胀上行风险的政策约束加强——6 月 美联储议息会议点评 2025 年第 4 期 ❖ 投资摘要： —Sir Tom Stoppard 1. 美联储 6 月份议息会议宣布维持利率不变，对于经济前景不确定性的评估 倾向更加积极的预期。 2. 美联储下调美国经济增长预期，上调通胀预期，其中 2025 年经济增长预期 值下调 0.3%至 1.4%，核心 PCE 预期值上调 0.3%至 3.1%。 3. 最新点阵图显示，2025 年降息次数或仍为两次，2026 年和 2027 年降息次 数均从 2 次降至 1 次。 4. 美联储对于高关税向通胀水平的传导保持高度警惕，同时对于货币政策限 制性的表述偏弱。 5. 下半年美国出台潜在关税对冲政策，或有利于美元资产，尤其是美股追赶 其他市场表现，除中国以外的新兴市场的企业盈利和股票估值压力或再度加 大。 ❖ 风险提示： 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：牛播坤 电话：010-66500825 邮箱：niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360514030002 ...

欧洲央行管委Kazimir：忽视通胀的上行风险是错误的。 整个夏天的数据，将显示是否需要更多的微调。 增长仍面临明显的下行风险。 随着欧洲央行6月（再次）降息，利率已达中性区域。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member Kazimir believes that economic growth faces significant downside risks, but ignoring the upside risks of inflation would be a mistake [1] Economic Growth - Economic growth is currently perceived to be under considerable threat, indicating a cautious outlook for the near future [1] Inflation Risks - There is a warning against neglecting the potential for rising inflation, suggesting that inflationary pressures could pose a significant challenge [1]

美联储理事库格勒：自年初以来，裁员通知数量有所增加，美联储褐皮书中提及裁员的情况也有所上 升。 如果通胀上行风险持续存在，将继续支持维持政策利率在当前水平。 ...

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the economy and labor market face downside risks, while inflation is under upward pressure [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may become most pronounced in the second half of 2025 [1] Economic Outlook - The economy is experiencing potential downturns, which could affect overall growth and stability [1] - The labor market is also showing signs of vulnerability, suggesting a need for caution in economic forecasts [1] Inflation Concerns - Inflationary pressures are expected to rise, indicating challenges for monetary policy and consumer purchasing power [1] - The timing of tariff impacts on inflation suggests a delayed effect, with significant implications for economic planning and strategy in 2025 [1]

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes suggest that a rate cut in April may be viewed as a preemptive implementation of the policy adjustment planned for June [1] - The primary focus in the short term will be on combating inflation [1] - The Eurozone has developed a certain level of resilience against shocks [1] - The Euro appears to be transitioning into a safe-haven currency [1] - Some participants may feel comfortable with a 50 basis point rate cut [1] - However, the risks of rising inflation have not dissipated [1]

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：关税在短期内可能具有反通胀作用，但在中期会带来上行风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicates that housing inflation is easing, and there are no evident upward risks to inflation at this time [1] Group 1 - The RBA notes a reduction in housing inflation, suggesting a potential stabilization in the housing market [1] - Current economic indicators do not show significant upward risks for inflation, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] - The easing of housing inflation could lead to a more favorable environment for consumers and businesses alike [1]

英国央行首席经济学家皮尔：我仍然担心英国的价格和工资设定已经发生了结构性变化。我确实担心通 胀上行的风险。 ...