来源：国泰海通证券研究 导读 政策依旧留有后手，密切关注外部风险可能的反复和国内基本面的变化，以及"十五五"规划中确定性的产业线索。 投资要点 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定2025年10月召开中共四中全会，研究制定"十五五"规划的建议，并分析研究当前经济形势和部署下半年经济工 作。总的来看有三个特征：一是对内外部形势的判断相较4月政治局会议更加积极；二是强调政策连续性，下半年有望迎来"适时加力"的窗口期；三是适 逢"十五五"规划起草在即，政策兼顾短期稳增长和长期促改革。与2020年7月政治局会议对"十四五"的相关表述相比，亮点是增加了"推动人的全面发展、 全体人民共同富裕迈出坚实步伐"的表述，这与此前强调的"投资于人"一脉相承。 从对下半年工作的具体部署来看，有以下几个亮点： 第一，对财政和货币政策的要求从"用好用足"转变为"落实落细"，"充分释放政策效应"。财政政策方面，会议要求"提高资金使用效率"；货币政策方面， 则要求"用好各项结构性货币政策工具"。在二季度各项宏观政策已经在加速落实的背景下，下半年将更加关注政策效果。 第二，"反内卷"淡化"低价"，置于全国统一大市场建设的总体布局之中。与中央 ...

就当前经济形势和下半年经济工作 中共中央召开党外人士座谈会 习近平主持并发表重要讲话 习近平强调，当前我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战，要正确把握形势，增强忧患意识，坚持底线思 维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头。下半年，要在宏观政策上持续发力、适 时加力，重点做好全方位扩大内需、坚定不移深化改革扩大开放、推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合发 展、持续防范化解重点领域风险、多措并举保障改善民生等工作。 习近平指出，上半年，各民主党派中央、全国工商联和无党派人士紧扣中共中央重大决策部署，聚焦经 济社会发展中的一些重点难点问题深入调研、建言献策，积极开展民主监督，体现了在中国共产党领导 下团结合作的政治担当和实干精神。他代表中共中央向大家表示衷心感谢。 习近平对各民主党派、全国工商联和无党派人士提出两点希望。一是统一思想认识，凝聚广泛共识。深 刻理解把握中共中央关于当前经济形势的分析判断和经济工作的指导思想、大政方针、重要部署，多做 宣传政策、解疑释惑、理顺情绪、凝聚共识的工作，汇聚起团结奋斗的强大正能量。二是立足自身优 势，推动高质量发展。结合履职选准调研题目，统筹用好各类资源和专业智库，提出更 ...

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the need to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery, with GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, indicating strong vitality and resilience in the economy [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2][3] - Macro policies will continue to play a crucial role in stabilizing economic operations, with a call for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [3][4] Group 2 - The meeting stressed the need to effectively unleash domestic demand potential, especially in the context of a complex external environment, with final consumption contributing 52% to economic growth in the first half of the year [6][7] - There is a focus on implementing special actions to boost consumption, particularly in expanding goods consumption and cultivating new growth points in service consumption [8][9] - Investment is identified as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, with an emphasis on high-quality infrastructure construction and stimulating private investment [10] Group 3 - The meeting underscored the necessity of deepening reforms to drive economic growth, with a focus on technological innovation, optimizing market competition, and improving the business environment for private enterprises [11][12] - High-level opening-up is emphasized to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, with measures to support foreign trade enterprises and enhance their competitiveness [12][13] Group 4 - Continuous efforts are required to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas, including local government debt and capital market stability, to ensure sustainable economic development [14][16] - The meeting highlighted the importance of ensuring social welfare and employment, particularly for key groups such as recent graduates and migrant workers, while maintaining safety in production and food supply [17]

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作，为完成全年经济社 会发展目标任务、实现"十四五"圆满收官指明了前进方向。 巩固拓展经济回升向好势头 今年上半年，面对更趋复杂严峻的外部环境，我国经济顶住压力、迎难而上，国内生产总值（GDP）同 比增长5.3%，主要经济指标表现良好，高质量发展取得新成效。 此次中央政治局会议指出，今年以来，"我国经济展现强大活力和韧性"，同时指出，"当前我国经济运 行依然面临不少风险挑战"。 "要正确把握形势，增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向 好势头。"会议作出重要判断。 国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院研究员张林山表示，会议科学分析研判当前经济形势，既看到成绩，也 不回避问题，强调从底线思维出发部署应对风险挑战之策，更好统筹发展和安全、着力激活经济发展潜 力，有助于引导社会预期，切实增强做好经济工作的责任感和紧迫感。 "保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性""着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期""有力促进国内 国际双循环"……会议作出一系列重要部署。 宏观政策持续发力、适时加力 宏观政策是护航经济稳定运行的重要手 ...

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作，为完成全年经济社 会发展目标任务、实现"十四五"圆满收官指明了前进方向。 巩固拓展经济回升向好势头 今年上半年，面对更趋复杂严峻的外部环境，我国经济顶住压力、迎难而上，国内生产总值（GDP）同 比增长5.3%，主要经济指标表现良好，高质量发展取得新成效。 此次中央政治局会议指出，今年以来，"我国经济展现强大活力和韧性"，同时指出，"当前我国经济运 行依然面临不少风险挑战"。 "要正确把握形势，增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向 好势头。"会议作出重要判断。 国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院研究员张林山表示，会议科学分析研判当前经济形势，既看到成绩，也 不回避问题，强调从底线思维出发部署应对风险挑战之策，更好统筹发展和安全、着力激活经济发展潜 力，有助于引导社会预期，切实增强做好经济工作的责任感和紧迫感。 "保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性""着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期""有力促进国内 国际双循环"……会议作出一系列重要部署。 宏观政策持续发力、适时加力 宏观政策是护航经济稳定运行的重要手 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continuity of policies while balancing short-term growth and long-term reforms, particularly in the context of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" and the current economic situation [3][5][7]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The Politburo meeting on July 30, 2025, assessed the economic situation more positively compared to the April meeting, noting a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, which exceeded annual targets [7][9]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and flexibility, with expectations for a potential "timely increase" in policy support in the latter half of the year [9][10]. Policy Deployment - Fiscal and monetary policies are shifting from "utilizing effectively" to "implementing in detail," focusing on improving the efficiency of fund usage and leveraging structural monetary policy tools [10][11]. - The concept of "anti-involution" has evolved, moving away from merely addressing low prices to a broader focus on quality and regulatory compliance within a unified national market [10][11]. - There is an increased emphasis on stabilizing the capital market, with a call to consolidate the positive momentum observed since April [11]. - Risk prevention and resolution in key areas are entering a new phase, particularly in real estate and local government debt management [11]. Future Considerations - The article suggests that while there is less urgency for new stimulus policies due to improved economic data and reduced external tensions, the government retains the option to implement additional measures if necessary [5][11]. - Close attention should be paid to the definitive industrial clues outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" as it develops [5][11].

Economic Growth and Policy Measures - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, showing resilience despite challenges [1][3] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to release policy effects [1][3] - Analysts suggest potential new measures such as interest rate cuts and increased fiscal deficit to support growth [2][4] Risk Management and Debt Control - The meeting highlighted the importance of preventing and resolving risks in key areas, particularly local government debt [1][6] - There is a strict prohibition on new hidden debts, and efforts will be made to clear local financing platforms [7][8] - The focus on high-quality urban renewal aims to mitigate risks associated with real estate and local debt [7][8] Capital Market Development - The meeting called for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to stabilize its recovery [9] - Key reforms will focus on financial openness, investment-side reforms, and increasing long-term capital inflows [9] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The government aims to effectively release domestic demand potential and stimulate consumption through targeted actions [10][11] - Initiatives include supporting service consumption and improving the consumption environment in key cities [10][12] Foreign Trade and Investment - The meeting stressed the need to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, particularly supporting export enterprises facing challenges [13][14] - There is a focus on optimizing export tax rebate policies and promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasizes the need to effectively unleash domestic demand potential and implement special actions to boost consumption, focusing on both goods and service consumption growth [1] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The meeting will report on work to the Central Committee and discuss the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development [1] - There is a strong emphasis on expanding consumption demand while ensuring the improvement of people's livelihoods [1] Group 2: Investment and Risk Management - The meeting highlights the importance of high-quality promotion of "two重" construction to stimulate private investment and expand effective investment [1] - Continuous prevention and resolution of risks in key areas is a priority, including managing local government debt risks and prohibiting new hidden debts [1] - The need to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market is stressed to consolidate the positive momentum of market stabilization [1]

Core Points - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau on July 30 emphasized the importance of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, which will focus on the economic situation and work for the second half of the year [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is nearing completion, and the "15th Five-Year Plan" will set the direction for national economic and social development, highlighting the coexistence of strategic opportunities and risks [2][3] - The meeting identified four major advantages for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period: the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, the advantages of a super-large market, a complete industrial system, and abundant talent resources [2][3] Economic Policy and Strategy - The meeting called for sustained macroeconomic policies, effective release of domestic demand potential, deepening reforms, expanding high-level opening-up, and ensuring social welfare [4][5] - It was noted that China's economy showed resilience with a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, but there are concerns about investment slowdown and real estate market fluctuations [5] - The meeting emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to enhance policy effectiveness and support economic recovery [6][7] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The meeting stressed the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential and expanding consumption, particularly in the service sector [7] - It highlighted the need to cultivate new growth points in service consumption and to view the service industry as part of the real economy [7] Reform and Market Development - The meeting reiterated the commitment to deepen reforms, promote technological innovation, and enhance the integration of technology and industry [8] - It emphasized the importance of advancing the construction of a unified national market to optimize market competition and governance [8][10] International Trade and Foreign Investment - The meeting recognized the need to expand high-level opening-up and stabilize foreign trade and investment, particularly in light of increased uncertainties in international trade [10][11] - Specific measures were proposed to support foreign trade enterprises and optimize export tax rebate policies [10]

文/王兆寰 编辑：麻晓超 据新华社最新消息，中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济 工作。会议强调，增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头。 同时，会议表示，持续防范化解重点领域风险。落实好中央城市工作会议精神，高质量开展城市更新。 积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务，有力有序有效推进地方融资平台出清。 ...