美国经济数据疲软，降息预期飙升，道指终结四连涨；中概股指涨2%；美元重回低点，油价一度 跌约2%。 美国5月ADP"爆冷"！就业人数仅增3.7万人，为自2023年3月以来的最低；数据公布后，特朗普喊 话鲍威尔：现在必须降低利率！ 美国5月ISM服务业指数近一年来首次萎缩，需求大跌，价格高企。 美联储褐皮书：最近几周美国经济活动略有下滑，劳动力需求减弱，涨价预期更强。 普京与特朗普通话超1小时，聚焦俄机场遭袭及伊朗核问题。 沙特寻求夺取市场份额，希望OPEC+实施更多超大规模石油增产。 马斯克加大攻势，呼吁美国民众行动起来，"否决"特朗普减税法案。 美国会预算办公室（CBO）预计：特朗普支出法案未来十年会让联邦政府的预算赤字增加2.4万亿 美元。 美商务部长预计本月内设定飞机部件关税标准。 态度趋于强硬，印度就汽车关税问题挑战美国。 云端算力竞赛新突破：创纪录英伟达GB200参与MLPerf测试，性能提升超两倍。 提醒：欧洲央行周四将公布利率决议，料降息25个基点。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that tariffs imposed by Trump on foreign goods could reduce the budget deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade [1] - However, the CBO also indicates that Trump's tariff policy will lead to a decline in U.S. economic output [1] Economic Impact - The projected reduction in the budget deficit of $2.8 trillion highlights the potential fiscal benefits of the tariff policy [1] - The anticipated decrease in economic output suggests that while the tariffs may improve budgetary figures, they could negatively affect overall economic performance [1]

金十数据6月4日讯，美国国会预算办公室（CBO）最新估计显示，众议院通过的特朗普税收和支出法 案将在未来十年增加2.42万亿美元的预算赤字。测算显示，与基线预测相比，到2034年的十年间，"美 丽大法案"预计将导致收入减少3.67万亿美元，支出减少1.25万亿美元，而美国财政轨迹更加糟糕情况下 的前景可能会引发共和党财政鹰派人士对该法案的担忧。特朗普预计将于周三与参议院财政委员会共和 党人会面，讨论这项法案。特朗普政府官员一再驳斥国会预算办公室的预测是不准确的，称这些预测没 有考虑到减税、提高关税和放松管制将带来的经济增长提振。 美国国会预算办公室：共和党税收法案将使美国赤字增加2.4万亿美元 ...

"荒谬可笑、充斥着政治操弄"。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 此外，当地时间6月1日，马斯克在接受美国哥伦比亚广播公司的采访时表示，他不想公开反对美国政府，但也 不想为政府所做的一切承担责任。马斯克在采访中表示，他所领导的"政府效率部"成了一切的替罪羊，所有的 裁员无论是真是假都被怪罪到了"政府效率部"的头上。 综合自：央视新闻 责编：李丹 校对： 王蔚 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 当地时间6月3日，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特表示，埃隆·马斯克的批评"不会改变"美国总统特朗普对大规模税 收与支出法案的支持。 据悉，马斯克当日在社交媒体平台上发布消息称，这项规模庞大的法案"荒谬可笑、充斥着政治操弄"。马斯克 称，该法案将使预算赤字大幅增至2.5万亿美元，使美国公民背负难以承受的债务负担。 马斯克此前也对该法案提出批评称，特朗普这项"美丽大法案"破坏了他在政府效率部削减成本的努力，并将增 加预算赤字。美国白宫管理和预算办公室（OMB）主任罗素·沃特回应了该言论称，这项法案不会增 ...

金十数据6月4日讯，马斯克在社交媒体发文称，目前这项规模庞大、荒唐可笑、充斥着政治目的国会支 出法案令人厌恶至极。那些投票支持的人是可耻的：你们知道自己做错了。这将使本已巨大的预算赤字 大幅增加到2.5万亿美元，并使美国公民背负难以承受的债务负担。国会正在让美国破产。 订阅马斯克动态 +订阅 马斯克：开支草案"让人感到厌恶" ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, consider phased profit - taking or defensive operations, and consider shorting small - and medium - cap indexes on rallies [11]. - For treasury bond futures, adopt a volatile mindset and mainly wait and see [12]. - For the European container shipping route, the market has released its previous trading momentum, and now focuses on the implementation of freight rate increases. The 08 contract may be more volatile in the short - term and needs to pay attention to multiple factors in the long - term [13]. - For cotton, the cotton price is under pressure to fluctuate due to insufficient production motivation and inventory digestion [15]. - For sugar, domestic sugar prices decline slowly following international sugar prices, with uncertainties in supply and demand [18]. - For eggs, it is recommended to short the 07 contract on rallies, as egg prices are expected to face pressure in June [21]. - For apples, it is recommended to conduct light - position positive spreads [22]. - For red dates, reduce short positions appropriately and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in production areas [23]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies and pay attention to the 09 - 01/11 - 01 reverse spread strategy [24]. - For crude oil, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile operation [26]. - For fuel oil, its price will follow the oil price and is stronger than crude oil [27]. - For plastics, consider short - selling after a rebound and long - position the 9 - 1 inter - month spread [27]. - For rubber, consider selling out - of - the - money call options and take profit when the price drops [29]. - For methanol, do not chase short positions in the short - term, and short after a rebound [30]. - For caustic soda, maintain a long - biased mindset while respecting the futures technical chart [31]. - For soda ash and glass, prices are expected to remain weak [32]. - For asphalt, the futures price is expected to follow the oil price and approach 3400 [33]. - For the polyester industry chain, it is recommended to short on rallies [33]. - For pulp, pay attention to macro - sentiment, and sell call options on rallies [33]. - For logs, pay attention to capital and macro - sentiment, and consider selling covered calls [33]. - For urea, the futures price is expected to be weak in the short - term [34]. - For aluminum and alumina, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, and alumina is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend [34]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, maintain a short - biased view [34]. - For steel and iron ore, the short - term is expected to be in a volatile consolidation, and the medium - term is expected to remain weak [35]. - For coking coal and coke, they are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [35]. - For ferroalloys, go long on ferrosilicon at low prices, hold short positions in silicomanganese, and long ferrosilicon while shorting silicomanganese [35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The May Fed meeting minutes show that policymakers believe the economy faces higher uncertainty and should be cautious about interest rate cuts [9]. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng welcomes more US financial institutions to cooperate with China [9]. - US President Trump warns Israel not to attack Iran and hopes to reach a new nuclear agreement with Iran [9]. - Tesla CEO Musk questions Trump's tax and spending bill [9]. - NATO plans to increase the number of combat brigades and defense spending targets [9]. - Japan's 40 - year treasury bond auction is cold, and market concerns spread [10]. - In April, China's local governments issued new and refinancing bonds [10]. - OPEC + agrees to maintain the current oil production quota plan and will discuss a July production increase [10]. Stock Index Futures - The year - on - year growth of industrial enterprise profits from January to April was 1.4%, basically in line with expectations. Small - and medium - cap indexes are highly crowded, and the market may take a short - term rest [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is balanced and loose, but the bond market is still weak due to banks' balance - sheet contraction and bond selling [12]. European Container Shipping Route - The previous trading momentum has been released, and the focus is on the implementation of freight rate increases. The 08 contract may be more volatile in the short - term, and multiple factors need attention in the long - term [13]. Cotton - During the Sino - US tariff observation period, the cotton price is under pressure due to insufficient production motivation and inventory digestion. The US cotton output is expected to decline, while Brazil's output is expected to increase [15][16]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices decline slowly following international sugar prices. Globally, sugar supply is expected to increase, while domestic supply is currently abundant but inventory is low [18][19]. Eggs - Before the Dragon Boat Festival, egg prices are weak, and there is still great pressure in June. It is recommended to short the 07 contract on rallies [21]. Apples - Adopt a light - position positive spread strategy. The market is waiting for more clarity on the apple's fruit - setting situation after bagging [22]. Red Dates - Reduce short positions appropriately. After the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, the market enters the off - season, and the supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak [23]. Live Pigs - Short near - month contracts on rallies and pay attention to the 09 - 01/11 - 01 reverse spread strategy. The supply is under double pressure, and the demand may weaken seasonally [24][25]. Crude Oil - OPEC + plans to increase production in July. The long - term supply is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken. The oil price is expected to be weak and volatile [26]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price follows the oil price, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by refined oil cracking profits [27]. Plastics - L and PP are currently weak, but the downward space is limited. Consider short - selling after a rebound and long - position the 9 - 1 inter - month spread [27]. Rubber - The overall trend is weakly volatile. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options. NR is relatively stronger than RU in the short - term [29]. Methanol - Do not chase short positions in the short - term, and short after a rebound. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth is weak [30]. Caustic Soda - The futures market shows a signal of turning from short to long. The spot price is stable, and it is recommended to maintain a long - biased mindset [31]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash supply increases, and downstream demand is stable. Glass demand is pessimistic, and the price is expected to be weak [32]. Asphalt - The asphalt futures price is expected to follow the oil price and approach 3400. The northern asphalt is relatively strong, and the production is lower than expected [33]. Polyester Industry Chain - Operate by short - selling on rallies. The supply of PX and PTA is expected to increase, and the terminal textile market recovers weakly [33]. Pulp - The demand is rigid, and the inventory is high. The market is weakly volatile in the short - term. Consider selling call options on rallies [33]. Logs - The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to downstream construction and port inventory. Consider selling covered calls [33]. Urea - The urea futures price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The inventory has increased, and the market is affected by multiple factors [34]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, and alumina is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend. The supply of alumina is expected to be balanced in June [34]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, maintain a short - biased view before the effective supply reduction in the wet season. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase in June, and the price is under pressure [34]. Steel and Iron Ore - The demand for steel is seasonally weak, and the supply is at a relatively high level. The short - term is expected to be in a volatile consolidation, and the medium - term is expected to remain weak [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not changed substantially, and they are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [35]. Ferroalloys - Ferrosilicon has a supply gap, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. Silicomanganese supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to hold short positions [35].

Core Viewpoint - The significant gap between the current Brent crude oil price of around $65 and the $96 needed by Saudi Arabia to balance its budget is leading to a decline in the Saudi stock market, making it the worst-performing globally [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Tadawul All Share Index in Saudi Arabia has dropped 6.4% since May, marking the worst performance among 92 indices tracked by Bloomberg and experiencing its longest four-month losing streak since 2014 [1][3]. - The weak oil prices are primarily responsible for the negative sentiment in the Saudi stock market, with crude oil prices hitting a four-year low in early April due to trade tensions and increased supply from OPEC+ members [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Pressure - Saudi Arabia's budget deficit in the first quarter reached its highest level since the end of 2021, raising concerns about the impact of declining oil revenues on the government's transformation plans [3]. - According to Bloomberg economist Ziad Daoud, the Saudi government requires a crude oil price of $96 to balance its budget, which rises to $113 when including domestic spending from the sovereign wealth fund, both figures being the highest since the launch of the "Vision 2030" plan in 2016 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs warned that Saudi Arabia's budget deficit could swell to $67 billion this year, potentially forcing the government to increase borrowing and cut back on economic transformation plans [3]. - Fiera Capital's fund manager Dominic Bokor-Ingram noted that ambitious mega-projects may face delays due to fiscal constraints, with Saudi Arabia's oil breakeven level being higher than that of regional peers [3]. - Compounding the situation, OPEC+ may discuss increasing production, which could further exacerbate concerns about oversupply and put additional pressure on oil prices [4].

金十数据5月28日讯，荷兰国际集团分析师弗朗西斯科・佩索莱在一份报告中指出，由于市场对美国经 济增长放缓和预算赤字的担忧持续存在，美元的复苏可能仍较为有限。他表示，世界大型企业联合会5 月美国消费者信心调查数据的反弹推动了美元走强。然而，若要重建市场对美国经济增长的信心，仍需 更多积极数据支撑，而赤字担忧"短期内不会消散"。美元在短期内继续面临"下行风险"。"消费者信心 数据的上行意外降低了这些风险，但我们对追逐美元指数突破100关口仍持谨慎态度。" 荷兰国际：美元的复苏可能仍较为有限 ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk expressed disappointment with President Trump's large spending bill, criticizing it for increasing the budget deficit and undermining the work of the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) team [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Context - The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed Trump's spending bill, which is seen as a significant legislative success for his second term, and it will now move to the Senate for a vote [2]. - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. national debt by over $3.3 trillion over the next decade, despite some cuts to social spending [2]. Group 2: Musk's Criticism - Musk has long claimed that without reducing the deficit, the U.S. could face bankruptcy, and he reiterated this sentiment during the CBS interview, questioning the feasibility of the bill being both grand and effective [2]. - This marks Musk's strongest criticism of the Trump administration to date, following previous comments on trade policies and conflicts with Trump officials regarding DOGE staffing [2]. Group 3: DOGE and Musk's Focus - Musk resigned from his position at DOGE to focus more on Tesla, indicating a commitment to work extensively on his company [3]. - He plans to significantly reduce his political campaign contributions after investing nearly $300 million in support of Trump and other Republicans last year [3]. - Musk expressed frustration with the cost-saving efforts of DOGE, suggesting that legislative obstacles hindered progress, with claimed savings of $175 billion being largely unverifiable [3].

（特朗普）关税带来"可观的（财政）收入"，一年就有好几千亿美元。 我觉得，未来数周将出现几个大的贸易协议。 美国财长贝森特：共和党提出的税收草案提供永久性的（低水平）税率，这将带来确定性。 目标是，预算赤字占GDP比重到2028年为3%。 对赤字前景"非常乐观"。 ...