Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Hong Kong property market is experiencing a surge in transactions, with a notable increase in both primary and secondary market activities due to low mortgage rates and increased buyer confidence [1][2] - Central Plains Real Estate reported a total of 15 transactions in the top ten estates over the weekend, marking a 25% week-on-week increase and reaching a four-week high [1] - The most transactions were recorded in Shatin's First City with 3 deals, followed by other estates like 康怡花园 (Kang Yi Garden), 新都城 (New Town), and 嘉湖山庄 (Jiahua Mountain Villa) with 2 deals each [1] Group 2 - The secondary market is seeing strong demand for bargain properties, as buyers are shifting their focus from the primary market due to a lack of large new launches [1][2] - Midland Realty's statistics show that the first weekend of July recorded approximately 16 transactions in the top ten blue-chip estates, a 23.1% increase from the previous weekend, continuing a trend of rising transactions over three consecutive weekends [1] - The expectation for the primary market is to achieve around 2,000 transactions this month, indicating a significant month-on-month increase, while the secondary market is also anticipated to perform well due to the positive market sentiment [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a positive atmosphere, leading to an increase in secondary market transactions, with the Central City Leading Index (CCL) rising for three consecutive weeks by 0.73% [1] - The latest CCL is reported at 136.56 points, with a week-on-week increase of 0.32%, indicating signs of price stabilization after a period of decline [1] - The CCL remains at an 8.5-year low, with a cumulative decline of 0.78% expected in Hong Kong property prices by the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened in the market four times since June, purchasing a total of HKD 590.72 billion, which may influence local secondary property prices [2] - The CCL Mass index is reported at 137.89 points, with a week-on-week increase of 0.30%, while the CCL for small units is at 136.52 points, up 0.29% [2] - Both CCL Mass and CCL for small units have risen for five consecutive weeks, with cumulative increases of 1.24% and 1.16% respectively [2] Group 3 - The property prices in four districts have shown fluctuations, with the Kowloon CCL Mass rising to 136.15 points, marking the largest increase in 16 weeks at 1.47% [3] - New Territories West CCL Mass increased to 126.83 points, with a week-on-week rise of 1.14%, the largest in 18 weeks [3] - The indices for Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, New Territories West, and New Territories East are at levels comparable to those in mid-2016 to early 2017 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The latest CVI has risen to 59.79 points, marking a significant increase of 2.10 points from last week and a total rise of 23.60 points over the past seven weeks, reaching the highest level since May 2024 when banks tightened mortgage lending [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The CVI has successfully crossed two critical thresholds in the past seven weeks, approaching the upper limit of the 60-point boundary, indicating a potential recovery in the Hong Kong property market [3]. - The increase in new property sales and a significant drop in interbank rates have contributed to a positive shift in bank mortgage attitudes, suggesting a stabilization in property prices in the short term [3]. Group 2: Property Valuation Insights - The latest CCL stands at 136.13 points, with a projected decline of 1.10% in property prices for the first half of 2025 [3]. - Among 143 CCL component estates, 90 (62.9%) have seen a decrease in valuations, with the highest drop rates observed in the Hong Kong Island region [3][4]. - The number of estates with valuation declines exceeding 3% totals 38, accounting for 42.2% of the declining estates [4]. Group 3: Specific Property Performance - In the first half of this year, 10 estates in New Territories West experienced valuation drops over 3%, while Hong Kong Island, New Territories East, and Kowloon had 7, 6, and 4 estates respectively [4]. - The top five estates with the highest valuation drops include specific units in various locations, with declines ranging from 8.09% to 9.31% [4]. - Conversely, 39 CCL component estates have seen valuation increases of over 1%, with notable gains in Kowloon and specific estates in Hong Kong Island [5].

Group 1 - The overall property market in Hong Kong has seen a rebound in transactions due to the cessation of tariff disputes and a decrease in interest rates, with a temporary pause expected before further upward movement [1][3] - In June 2025, there were 7,275 property transactions recorded, a 13% increase from May's 6,466 transactions, marking a seven-month high [1] - The total value of property transactions in June reached HKD 65.595 billion, a 29% month-on-month increase, the highest since May 2024 [1] Group 2 - The primary residential market showed significant growth, with first-hand private residential transactions rising 31% in June to 2,099, the highest in nearly three months [2] - The total value of first-hand private residential transactions surged 139% to HKD 34.830 billion, driven by substantial internal transfers in specific developments [2] - The top three new developments in terms of transaction volume were SIERRA SEA 1B (721 transactions), Kai Wo Shan (125 transactions), and UNI RESIDENCE (80 transactions) [2] Group 3 - The secondary residential market also benefited from favorable conditions, with transactions increasing 11% to 3,429 in June, maintaining above 3,000 for three consecutive months [2] - The total value of secondary residential transactions rose 3% to HKD 23.594 billion, indicating a simultaneous increase in both volume and value [2] - The non-residential market saw an overall increase in transactions, with commercial properties performing well despite a slight decline in parking space transactions [3] Group 4 - The overall commercial property transactions increased by 8% in June, totaling 836, although the total transaction value decreased by 59% to HKD 4.019 billion due to high previous month comparisons [3] - The market is expected to experience a slight decline in transaction numbers in July, potentially dropping to around 6,710, but there remains potential for future growth [3]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong mortgage market has shown significant recovery, with June 2025 recording 6,508 registrations for existing properties, a substantial increase of 32.3% from May's 4,920 registrations, marking a 22-month high [1] - The number of mortgage registrations for new properties also rebounded significantly to 560 in June, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 50.9% [1] - Overall, the first half of 2025 saw a notable year-on-year increase in mortgage registrations for both existing and new properties, with existing property registrations rising by 18.7% to 27,784 and new property registrations soaring by 112% to 3,145 [1][2] Market Share Analysis - Bank of China (Hong Kong) maintained its leading position in the existing property mortgage market for nine consecutive months, achieving a market share of 33.8% with 9,390 registrations [1][2] - In June, the market share of Bank of China (Hong Kong) increased by 5.8 percentage points to 34.7%, while HSBC's market share rose by 1.8 percentage points to 22.2%, keeping it in second place [2] - Hang Seng Bank's market share increased by 3.4 percentage points to 16.1%, ranking third, while Standard Chartered Bank's market share decreased slightly to 5.4%, moving up one position to fourth [2] Additional Market Insights - The top five to ten banks in the existing property mortgage market in June included Bank of East Asia (4.8%), ICBC Asia (3.1%), China International Capital Corporation (2.5%), Citibank (1.9%), and Bank of Communications (1.8%) [3] - The overall market share of the top four banks accounted for 78.4% of the existing property mortgage registrations in June, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8.1 percentage points [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5% aligns with market expectations, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes [1] - HSBC has announced that its prime rate will remain at 5.25%, which is also in line with market expectations, suggesting that Hong Kong banks will likely follow suit [1] - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a recovery, driven by significantly reduced mortgage rates, lower housing costs, and increased demand for purchasing over renting [1] Group 2 - There is an expectation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice this year, potentially bringing the rate below 4% and gradually down to the low 3% range [1] - The anticipated decrease in U.S. interest rates is expected to lead to a corresponding reduction in Hong Kong's prime rate, which could drop by an additional 0.25% after a previous reduction of 0.625% [1] - The expected decline in the capped interest rate for mortgages in Hong Kong to 3.25% will lower income requirements for mortgage applicants, further supporting the local property market [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong dollar is approaching the weak end of its trading band at 7.85, which may trigger the Monetary Authority to intervene in the market [2] - The significant disparity between Hong Kong and U.S. interest rates has led to increased arbitrage activities, and seasonal factors may contribute to a rise in Hong Kong interbank rates [2] - Despite the expected rise in interbank rates, it is anticipated that Hong Kong's mortgage rates will remain lower than levels seen before May of this year, fluctuating mainly between 1.84% and 2% to 3% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "Tian'an" project in Tuen Mun, Hong Kong, has attracted significant attention due to substantial price reductions, reflecting the stark contrast between the market's upward and downward phases [1][2]. Group 1: Project Background - The project, originally named "Evergrande·Junlong Bay," was launched in 2019 and achieved remarkable success by selling all 151 units during its first phase, targeting small-sized apartments for first-time buyers [1][4]. - Evergrande acquired the Tuen Mun land for HKD 6.6 billion, with a floor price of HKD 8,300 per square foot, setting a record for the area during a market upturn [2]. Group 2: Price Reduction Details - On June 16, the project significantly reduced prices for 27 units, with usable areas ranging from 223 to 461 square feet, and total prices between HKD 2.148 million and HKD 4.173 million, with some units seeing price cuts exceeding 60% [1][6]. - For example, a unit's price dropped from HKD 5.78 million to HKD 2.287 million, marking a 60.4% decrease in price per square foot [6]. Group 3: Market Context - The ongoing high supply of new residential properties in Hong Kong has compelled developers to adopt aggressive pricing strategies to clear inventory, with current first-hand residential inventory recorded at 21,400 units as of the end of May [1][6]. - The price drop at the "Tian'an" project is not an isolated case, as other new developments in the region are also offering discounts of 20% to 30% compared to similar second-hand properties [6][19]. Group 4: Impact on Secondary Market - The secondary market has also experienced significant price declines, with many units seeing drops of over 50% [11]. - For instance, a unit sold on May 21 for HKD 2.08 million represented a 54% decrease from its previous purchase price [11]. Group 5: Future Market Predictions - The Hong Kong property market is expected to see an improvement in new home transactions, with an estimated 1,980 registrations for June, a 23% increase from May [16][19]. - Despite the anticipated recovery in the new home market, the secondary market remains under pressure, with a forecasted continued dominance of the first-hand market in the short term [21].

智通财经APP获悉，利嘉阁地产总裁廖伟强表示，对下半年香港楼市继续乐观，一、二手私宅合计买卖 登记料增至3万宗，当中包括受惠东升西降，资金流入香港及预期进一步减息，带动置业及投资需求。 面对上半年关税战，但香港本地楼市总体交投量不跌反升，只是楼价仍较受压，但月环比有所缓和。廖 伟强对下半年住宅市道感乐观，有信心可实现量价齐升。 廖伟强预期，下半年在各项利好因素持续发酵下，香港中小型住宅楼价料涨3-5%；豪宅楼价也看升 2%，全年料平稳微升。租金表现方面，在新增人才及内地和海外留学生进驻下，预期下半年中小型住 宅租金料提速再涨3%，即全年料升逾 5%；而豪宅租金下半年也看升2%，全年料涨约3.5%。 在二手市场方面，相信在下半年经济持续好转，股市及零售消费市道都向好及进一步的减息预期，也能 带动二手交投造好，料下半年二手私宅登记量将较上半年的1.8万宗再升11%，至2万宗水平；全年累 计，二手买卖料录3.8万宗水平，将较2024年约3.22万宗增加 18%。综合预计，在下半年一、二手齐步 向好下，香港整体私宅登记量料升12%，最终料达3万宗水平。 利嘉阁地产董事胡栢荣指出，2025年上半年，香港楼市呈"量升价跌 ...

最近一段时间，香港楼市观望情绪有所升温。不过，市场人士对今年上半年香港楼市的整体表现预期较 为乐观。 香港土地注册处最新公布的数据显示，5月所有楼宇买卖合约数为6442宗，同比环比分别下降12.5%、 10.9%，宗数出现回落，为近3个月的低位。 与此同时，一手私人住宅成交量表现则优于二手私人住宅。根据中原地产数据，5月一手私人住宅交易 量为1665宗，较4月上升4.3%。二手私人住宅尽管交易量保持高位，但5月交易量环比下滑15.7%至3026 宗，结束了环比两连升的势头。 中原地产高级联席董事杨明仪表示，此前全球金融市场受美国"对等关税"政策冲击，导致市场观望情绪 升温。不过，受中美关税及新盘热销等利好因素推动，预计6月登记量有望回升至7000宗水平。今年上 半年，香港整体楼宇买卖量或达3.65万宗，同比增幅超过10%，创2021年下半年以来新高。 美联物业全国研究中心总监何倩茹表示，随着美联储降息，香港物业价格触底反弹的呼声非常高，交易 量也随之上升。此外，2024年比较多内地客户也认同香港物业目前的价格处于低位水平且租金回报率较 高，适合进行资产配置。 去年2月28日，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波在公布 ...

Group 1: Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The Hong Kong real estate market has not shown significant improvement in the first half of the year, but key factors are beginning to turn around [1] - A rebound in population and a significant drop in interest rates, including HIBOR, are expected to restore market confidence, with property prices projected to rise by 3% in the second half of the year and by 5% in both 2026 and 2027 [1] - The decline in HIBOR directly reduces mortgage rates, alleviating payment pressure and providing a good opportunity for first-time buyers and motivating upgrade purchases in the secondary market [1] Group 2: Residential Rental Market - The trend of divergence in residential prices and rental markets has continued into 2023, driven by population inflow and government talent introduction plans, which will increase housing demand and push short-term rental growth [1] - Rental prices are expected to rise by approximately 2% to 3% this year, with areas close to major business districts and key universities projected to see rental increases of at least 5% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Retail Market - Despite changes in tourist consumption habits and average spending levels, an increase in tourist numbers and a slowdown in consumption trends from mainland China are expected to benefit the dining and grocery sectors [2] - High-end shopping centers and core shopping areas are anticipated to remain stable through 2025, although non-tourist and core retail areas may face more significant pressure due to e-commerce challenges [2] Group 4: Office Market - The office market remains cautious, with vacancy rates slightly decreasing from a high of 13.7% in July 2024 to 13.5% in March 2025, but still at elevated levels [2] - Major projects set to complete between 2025 and 2026 will limit the rebound potential of the office market, with Grade A office rents expected to decline by 3% to 5% year-on-year until economic conditions improve [2]