点击按钮▲立即预约 " 摩根士丹利认为，香港楼市在经历七年低迷后，有望迎来 4—5 年的上升周期；瑞银认为，香港住宅物业市场正处于转折点，将在未来 3—5 年进入上升周期。 " 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 回暖的香港楼市 清晨的西九龙高铁站，人潮还没散去，一位中介已经带着广州的看房团奔向楼盘，一个月能促成十余宗交易；另一位深圳的中介，最近"常驻"香 港，"咨询的客户太多，每天都在加班"。售楼处，挤满了南来北往的普通购房者，其中不乏近两年流入香港的人才，趁着政策松动、利率下滑，一 举实现"租转买"。 楼盘的热度，更是令人目不暇接。香港启德天玺 · 天第2期次轮销售56个单位即日全数售罄， 超额认购达37倍， 已经连续两轮销售实现"日光"； 湾仔春园街SPRING GARDEN项目两小时售罄，套现超5.6亿港元；九龙城瑧博首日发售，115套房源即日沽清…… 一个个"日光"项目、一阵阵购房浪潮，把一种久违的热度推上台面——香港楼市，仿佛悄悄按下了"加速键"。 差饷物业估价署数据显示，香港9月私人住宅售价指数升至292.5，连续第四个月上涨，创14个月以来新高。 价格在上涨，成交量更是一路踩油门。据中原地 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a surge in transactions, with significant increases in both new and secondary market sales due to favorable market conditions and interest rate cuts [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Central Plains Real Estate reported 16 transactions in its top ten estates over the weekend, a 60% increase from the previous week's 10 transactions [1] - Midland Realty recorded 17 transactions in its top ten secondary estates, a 70% increase year-on-year, maintaining double-digit activity for five consecutive weekends [1] - The total transactions in the top 15 estates reached 20, marking an increase of approximately 66.7% compared to the previous week [1] Group 2: Buyer Sentiment - The market is filled with positive news, leading to increased buyer confidence, with many buyers accelerating their purchasing decisions due to fears of rising prices [1] - There is a notable presence of first-time buyers, investors, and large-scale buyers in the market, indicating a robust demand for both new and secondary properties [1] - The ongoing effects of interest rate cuts are driving buyer interest, with expectations for continued price increases in the secondary market [1] Group 3: Regional Performance - In the Hong Kong Island area, three estates recorded one transaction each, a 100% increase from the previous week [2] - The Kowloon area saw a total of five transactions across four estates, a decrease of approximately 28.6% week-on-week [2] - The New Territories experienced a significant surge, with ten transactions across three estates, reflecting a 400% increase from the previous week [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and plans to end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, which has prompted major banks in Hong Kong to lower their rates by 0.125% [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The CEO of a major real estate group in Hong Kong believes that the combination of further interest rate cuts and positive factors from US-China talks will lead to a rise in both prices and transaction volumes in the Hong Kong property market in November [1] - Despite rising unemployment and high residential property inventory, the wealth effect from the rising Hong Kong stock market, increasing rents, and demand for "rent-to-buy" options are expected to provide strong support for the property market [1] Group 2: Transaction Volume Predictions - The CEO anticipates that the transaction volume for new properties in November could reach 2,000 units, marking the 10th consecutive month of over 1,000 transactions, which would be the longest streak since the implementation of the "Residential Property Sales Ordinance" in April 2013 [1] - The second-hand property market is also expected to benefit from positive market sentiment, with predictions of reaching 4,500 transactions in November, which would be the highest level in 19 months [1] Group 3: Annual Sales Forecast - The CEO projects that the overall transaction volumes for both new and second-hand properties will set new records for the year, with new private residential sales expected to reach 20,000 units, the highest since the "Residential Property Sales Ordinance" came into effect in 2013 [1] - The estimated total for second-hand residential transactions for the year is expected to reach 46,000 units, marking a four-year high [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong property market has benefited from interest rate cuts and rising rents, leading to increased willingness among "rent-to-buy" users and long-term investors to enter the market. The first ten months of this year saw a significant increase in residential property registrations, reaching a four-year high [1]. Summary by Category Overall Market Performance - In the first ten months of this year (up to October 16), Hong Kong recorded 51,353 residential property registrations, a 10.2% increase from 46,603 registrations during the same period last year, marking the highest number for this timeframe in four years [1][4]. Registration by Price Segment - Residential properties priced at HKD 5 million or below recorded 24,645 registrations, up 16.9% from 21,080 last year, making it the most registered category and showing the most significant growth. This increase is attributed to the adjustment in the stamp duty threshold in February [3][4]. - Properties priced between HKD 5 million and HKD 10 million saw 19,182 registrations, a 6.3% increase from 18,052 last year [4]. - Properties priced over HKD 10 million recorded 7,526 registrations, a slight increase of 0.7% from 7,471 last year [4]. Performance by District - The New Territories recorded the highest number of registrations at 26,419, a 15% increase from 22,966 last year [5]. - The Hong Kong Island district saw a significant increase of 21.6%, with 9,850 registrations compared to 8,100 last year, marking the highest growth among the three districts [5]. - In contrast, the Kowloon district experienced a decline, with 15,084 registrations, down 2.9% from 15,537 last year [5].

Core Insights - In September, mainland buyers significantly increased their purchases of residential properties in Hong Kong, with both transaction volume and value rising [1][2] - The total number of registrations by mainland buyers reached 1,304, marking a month-on-month increase of approximately 17.5%, the second highest in 10 months [1] - The monetary value involved in these transactions was about HKD 13.54 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of approximately 23.2%, also the highest in 10 months [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The increase in registrations is attributed to the popularity of new developments in areas like Kai Tak and Wong Chuk Hang, with many projects being mid to high-end or luxury properties [1] - Analysts suggest that the recovery of Hong Kong property prices and the resumption of interest rate cuts are likely to accelerate the pace of new property sales, potentially leading to continued growth in mainland buyer activity in Q4 [1] Group 2: Regional Preferences - In September, the Kai Tak area had the highest number of registrations from mainland buyers, totaling 147, which accounted for 60.2% of individual buyer registrations [1] - The second highest area was Wong Chuk Hang/Sham Wan, with 94 registrations, representing 54% of individual buyers, primarily from the BLUE COAST series [2] - Tseung Kwan O ranked third with 90 registrations, making up about 20% of individual buyers, mostly from the Kai Bo Fung series [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong property market is expected to experience a strong upward trend in prices, with an annual increase projected between 3% to 5%, driven by various positive factors including the new government policy measures and the US interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong private residential price index rose by 0.14% month-on-month in August, marking a continuous increase for three months and a recovery of 1.26% from the year's low [1] - The latest "Mafengwo Price Index" reported a value of 129.1 points as of September 22, reflecting a 2.23% increase from the year's low and a year-to-date rise of 0.76% [1] Group 2: Rental Market Dynamics - The private residential rental index increased by 1.12% month-on-month in August, continuing its upward trend for nine consecutive months, with the growth rate expanding due to the traditional peak rental season in Q3 [1] - The strong demand for housing in Hong Kong, coupled with government efforts to attract talent, is expected to further drive rental prices up, leading to an increase in "rent-to-buy" demand and long-term investors entering the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central City Leading Index (CCL) has shown a weekly increase of 1.2%, reaching 138.74 points, driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts and fluctuating housing prices [1] Group 1: CCL Performance - The CCL is currently at its third highest level of 2025, just 0.51 points or 0.37% below the year's peak of 139.25 points [1] - Over the past 15 weeks, the CCL has recorded ten increases and five decreases, rising 2.65% from the low of 135.16 points [2] - The CCL Mass index reached 140.77 points, marking a weekly increase of 1.38% and a 57-week high since early August 2024 [2] Group 2: Regional Price Trends - In the New Territories West, the CCL Mass index rose 2.36% to 128.17 points, while Kowloon saw a 2.19% increase to 139.72 points, both reaching their third highest levels of the year [3] - The CCL Mass index for Hong Kong Island decreased by 1.01%, marking a cumulative drop of 2.65% over two weeks [3] - Year-to-date, the CCL has increased by 0.80%, with the CCL Mass up 1.91% and the CCL for large units down 2.73% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong property market has shown signs of stabilization, with the "Mei Lun Property Price Index" indicating a year-to-date increase of approximately 0.44% in property prices, marking a shift from decline to growth [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Among the top ten housing estates, seven have seen an increase in average practical price per square foot compared to the end of last year, with the largest increase observed in Huangpu Garden at approximately 8% [1] - The average practical price per square foot for the top ten estates is expected to rise further if favorable measures are introduced in the upcoming Policy Address and if the U.S. implements interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Price Changes in Specific Estates - The other estates with notable price increases include: - Ocean Park with an increase of about 5.3% - Shatin First City and Lai King City with increases of approximately 2.8% and 2.2% respectively - Mei Foo Sun Chuen, New Town Plaza, and 嘉湖山庄 with increases ranging from about 0.5% to 1.8% [1] - Conversely, three estates experienced price declines, with Ying Wan Garden down approximately 2.9%, and Taikoo Shing and 康怡花园 down about 1.5% and 1.3% respectively [1] Group 3: Price Levels of Specific Estates - Three estates still have average practical prices below HKD 10,000, specifically: - Mei Foo Sun Chuen at approximately HKD 9,630 - Ying Wan Garden at about HKD 9,403 - 嘉湖山庄 at around HKD 8,146 [2] - Newer estates have also performed well, with Park Yoho seeing an average price increase of about 4.6%, surpassing HKD 10,000 [2]

Group 1 - The private residential property price index in Hong Kong rose to 287.9 points in July, a 0.42% increase from June, marking four consecutive months of growth, although it is down 3.26% year-on-year [1] - The rental index reached 196.3 points in July, reflecting a 0.56% month-on-month increase and a 1.29% year-on-year rise, with a cumulative increase of 1.97% in the first seven months of the year [1] - The increase in property prices is attributed to the decline in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR), creating a "super low interest honeymoon period" that has attracted buyers into the market [1] Group 2 - The government’s policy report is anticipated to include economic stimulus measures, which could positively impact the property market, leading to a recovery in property prices [2] - The first-hand property market is performing well, with approximately 1,700 transactions recorded so far this month, potentially reaching 2,500 for the entire month, surpassing June's high of 2,400 [2] - The rental market is experiencing sustained demand due to various talent policies and the influx of overseas and mainland students, leading to a supply-demand imbalance that is likely to keep rental prices rising [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery, driven by declining interest rates, population influx, and favorable policies, with experts predicting continued high transaction activity in the future [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the second quarter of this year, both transaction volume and prices in the Hong Kong real estate market have gradually stabilized, with July seeing a 37.1% year-on-year increase in all types of property sales contracts registered [2]. - The number of residential property sales contracts registered in July reached 5,766, marking a 54.8% year-on-year increase [2]. - The private residential price index showed a slight monthly increase of 0.03% in June, marking three consecutive months of growth, which reduced the year-to-date price decline to 0.86% [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The decline in interest rates has significantly lowered mortgage costs, with current mortgage rates around 2%, thus supporting housing demand [2]. - The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has dropped significantly since May, with the one-month HIBOR reported at 1.73% as of August 4 [2]. Group 3: Talent Influx and Rental Demand - The introduction of talent attraction programs has led to an influx of over 75,000 high-end talents and their families into Hong Kong by the end of 2024, boosting rental and purchasing demand [3]. - The rental index for private residential properties increased by approximately 0.31% month-on-month in June, marking a continuous rise for seven months, with a cumulative increase of 1.61% in the first half of the year [3]. Group 4: Mainland Buyers - The relaxation of property purchase restrictions has made it easier for mainland buyers to participate in the Hong Kong real estate market, with a notable increase in their activity [4]. - In June, mainland buyers registered 1,237 transactions in the Hong Kong residential market, representing a month-on-month increase of approximately 21.9%, with transaction amounts reaching around HKD 11 billion, up about 14.4% [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The positive fundamentals of Hong Kong's economy are expected to continue supporting the stabilization of the real estate market [5]. - Factors such as favorable stock market conditions, sustained low HIBOR, and the upcoming launch of multiple new developments are anticipated to maintain strong transaction momentum in the primary market [5].