自2025年5月拆息回落，香港楼价转势见底回升，再加上去年本地银行两次减息刺激，CCL较去年5月H 按息再度低于封顶息当周的135.16点低位累升10.54%。CCL较2025年3月财案前134.89点低位升 10.76%，较2024年9月首次减息前135.86点低位升9.97%，较2021年8月191.34点历史高位跌21.91%。2月 25日财案宣布调高1亿港元以上住宅物业印花税，对香港本地二手楼价的影响将于2026年3月下旬公布的 CCL才开始反映。 2026年计，CCL暂时累升3.68%，CCL Mass升3.77%，CCL(中小型单位)升3.62%，CCL(大型单位)升 3.91%，港岛升7.55%，九龙升4.46%，新界东升0.50%，新界西升1.42%。 撇除上周因新春假期指数暂停，CCL连升5周共3.3%，为2021年5月底以来近5年首见，反映今年新春季 节性旺市提前出现，香港楼价升势持续。新春后楼市气氛畅旺，二手成交活跃，多个新盘部署开售，加 上部份货尾提价，相信香港楼价将再向上突破。CCL逐步迈向156点目标水平(即2023年通关前的低 位)，现时相差6.59点或4.41%。 智通财经AP ...

事实上，早在印花税调整信息落地之前，国际投行已经掀起了一轮香港楼价预测的上调潮。 2月25日，香港财政司司长陈茂波在最新财政预算案中宣布，将调整1亿港元以上的住宅物业交易印花 税，税率由4.25%上调至6.5%。该措施于条例修订草案获通过后，2月26日起正式生效。 陈茂波表示，这项被官方定义为"能者多付"的财政手段，预计将影响全港约0.3%的住宅物业交易，每年 能带来约10亿港元税收收入。以一套1.5亿港元的豪宅计算，印花税款将从637.5万港元增至975万港元， 增幅就已超五成。 不过，市场的看法显然更为淡定，有声音称，这类破亿物业的买家不会因增加税款而影响入市决 定，"因为超级豪宅是身份象征，增加近千万元税款对他们影响不大"。 楼市谷底反弹 2月20日，高盛将2026年香港楼价升幅预测由5%调高至12%。其中缘由是，政府持续推出签证及移民政 策，被认为会带来新增居住需求。与此同时，租金保持升势，加上按揭利率回落，一部分原本租房的人 开始重新计算买楼成本。 2月23日，摩根大通也表明，将今年香港楼价升幅预测由原先的5%至7%大幅上调至10%至15%，并预期 2027年将进一步上升约5%。基于这一判断，摩通将 ...

智通财经APP获悉，香港置业研究部董事王品弟表示，据土地注册处最新资料显示，1月住宅物业(包括 一手私宅，二手私宅及二手公营房屋)录6,137宗注册，虽较去年12月6,650宗减少约7.7%，但仍创7个月 次高，反映注册量仍于较高水平徘徊。 若以三区划分1月住宅物业(包括一手私宅，二手私宅及二手公营房屋)注册量同比表现，当中港岛区住 宅物业录1,085宗注册，较去年同期的683宗增加约58.9%;九龙区住宅物业录2,278宗注册，较去年同期的 1,234宗增加约84.6%，三区中增幅最显著，主要因期内一手注册个案同比同期升逾2.3倍所带动;单以区 内注册量首三个新盘(油塘柏景峰、启德DOUBLE COAST及启德海湾)计算，合共录301宗一手注册，已 超越去年同期九龙区239宗一手注册;新界区住宅物业录2,774宗注册，三区中最多，较去年同期的1,933 宗增加约43.5%。 若以金额划分1月住宅物业(包括一手私宅，二手私宅及二手公营房屋)注册量同比表现，当中500万元(港 元，下同)或以下住宅物业录2,764宗注册，各金额类别中最多，较去年同期的2,035宗增加约35.8%;逾 500万至1,000万元住宅 ...

Group 1: Residential Property Market - The Hong Kong residential property market is expected to maintain a moderate recovery, but the rebound will be limited [1] - Factors contributing to the rise in residential property prices and transaction volumes include a low interest rate environment, a strong stock market leading to a wealth effect, and improved rental yields [1] - New immigration policies, including talent programs, have boosted demand, with new home sales projected to reach the highest level in over a decade by 2025 [1] - Continuous promotional policies from developers and a cautious market outlook indicate that the residential market rebound is unlikely to provide significant or lasting boosts to fiscal revenue [1] Group 2: Commercial Real Estate Market - The commercial real estate sector is expected to remain under pressure, with office rental rates significantly below pre-pandemic levels [1] - Recent leasing activity in traditional core business districts has increased due to strong capital market performance, but high vacancy rates and structural headwinds will continue to limit short-term acquisition intentions for commercial land [1] - Developers may adopt a selective strategy in acquiring new residential land due to a cautious macro outlook, which could negatively impact government land sale revenue [1] Group 3: Banking Sector - The Hong Kong banking sector is expected to maintain a prudent approach, focusing on asset quality and credit standards rather than pursuing loan growth, despite a rebound in residential mortgage activity [2] - The banking sector's funding, liquidity, and capital positions remain robust, but it is not expected to provide significant support for market activity [2] - The quality of residential mortgage assets is stable, but the weak commercial real estate sector may continue to face pressure [2] Group 4: Government Revenue and Fiscal Flexibility - Hong Kong's fiscal flexibility will continue to be constrained by declining real estate-related revenues, although short-term stock trading stamp duties may offset some impacts [2] - As of the fiscal year ending March 2025, property stamp duties and land revenues accounted for approximately 5% of total government revenue, down from over 6% five years ago, and less than 1% of GDP [2] - The government has decided to suspend new commercial land auctions in response to high office vacancy rates and weak market demand, which will further limit real estate-related revenues below historical levels [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market experienced a significant turnaround in 2025, with a notable increase in both transaction volume and prices, largely driven by mainland Chinese buyers [1] Group 1: Mainland Buyers' Impact - In 2025, mainland buyers purchased residential properties in Hong Kong totaling HKD 138 billion, setting a new historical record [1] - The easing of property restrictions and talent introduction plans have stimulated demand, leading to a year-on-year increase in transaction volume by 14.1% to 13,900 transactions [1] - Nearly 60% of the funds from mainland buyers are directed towards new properties, indicating a strong preference for first-hand real estate [1] Group 2: Luxury Property Trends - High-value properties, particularly those priced above HKD 50 million, are increasingly favored by mainland clients, who accounted for nearly 70% of such purchases [4] - The luxury market is expected to thrive in 2026, with a projected 50% increase in first-hand luxury property transactions and a 60% rise in second-hand luxury transactions [4] - Factors supporting this demand include the scarcity and high value retention of luxury properties, as well as the influx of skilled professionals and families relocating to Hong Kong [4] Group 3: Broader Market Dynamics - Major mainland tech companies, such as Alibaba and JD.com, have invested over HKD 10 billion in acquiring office spaces in core areas of Hong Kong [5] - A report from Morgan Stanley indicates that since March 2025, Hong Kong residential prices have rebounded by over 4%, with an expected further increase of about 5% by the end of 2026 [5] - Multiple factors, including a resilient stock market, pent-up demand, anticipated interest rate declines, rising rents, and sustained interest from mainland buyers, are supporting the ongoing recovery of the Hong Kong residential market [5]

Group 1: Residential Property Market - The report by普缙集团 indicates that Hong Kong's residential property prices are expected to remain stable in 2026, with slight increases in some popular areas [1] - The residential leasing market is anticipated to remain robust due to the continuous influx of non-local students and professionals, with rental prices likely approaching historical highs [1] - In 2025, the residential property market benefited from policy adjustments, a low-interest environment, and ongoing purchases by mainland buyers, leading to a significant increase in transaction volume, with nearly 57,000 transactions, a year-on-year growth of approximately 7.3% [1] - Transactions for first-hand and second-hand residential properties were recorded at 18,800 and 38,100 respectively, indicating a gradual release of market purchasing power [1] - Over 20% of overall residential transactions were attributed to mainland buyers, with some new developments seeing this figure rise to 30% [1] Group 2: Non-Residential Property Market - The report highlights a weak overall performance in the non-residential property market in 2025, with commercial buildings, office spaces, and industrial buildings experiencing price declines of approximately 8.8%, 11.1%, and 12.3% respectively [2] - Rental prices also decreased in tandem, with Grade A, B, and C office buildings seeing price reductions of about 9.9%, 15.3%, and 11.3% respectively, while the market vacancy rate remains high [2] - Although demand from financial and professional services has stabilized rental prices for some premium office spaces in core areas, non-core areas continue to face rental pressure [2] - The industrial and warehouse market has been impacted by global trade uncertainties and a decline in local logistics demand, with rental prices dropping approximately 4.2% in the first ten months of 2025 [2] - The report notes that the Hong Kong government is actively optimizing measures for the reconstruction and renovation of industrial buildings, but the industrial market is expected to require more time for adjustment [2] - Overall rental prices for retail shops fell by about 4% in the first ten months of 2025, with stable vacancy rates in core areas, while non-core areas continue to experience rental pressure due to changing consumer patterns [2]

陈永杰预期，2025年全年差估署楼价指数可录3.5%升幅。租金指数方面，继续受惠于各项专才政策， 指数连升12个月，更创历史新高水平。楼价连升6个月，租金连升12个月，今年出现了近年罕见的租价 齐升现象。鉴于现时楼价与历史高位仍有25%的差距，陈永杰认为，买楼收租享逾3.5%的租金回报，仍 是明年趋势。但相信明年租金升势将放缓，香港楼价升幅将跑赢租金。 智通财经APP获悉，香港差饷物业估价署刚公布楼价指数，2025年11月私人住宅售价指数报297.3点， 月环比升0.92%，已连升6个月，为逾4年最长升浪，累涨约3.77%。今年首11个月累升约2.8%。租金指 数则连升12个月，月环比升0.2%，全年累升约4.26%，最新报200.7点，再创历史新高。 香港财政司司长昨日在网志上表示，香港经济表现良好，随着旅客增加，出口上升，各项经济数据理 想。陈永杰认为各项经济基础因素不变，市民收入增加有利香港楼市，而货币贬值亦促使资金流向实物 资产，同时于租金升势未停的影响下，租客转租为买增加，将进一步推升住宅物业买卖需求。以中原城 市领先指数CCL为例，全年已录得4.3%升幅。 中原地产亚太区副主席兼住宅部总裁陈永杰表 ...

天刚蒙蒙亮，西九龙高铁站的人潮尚未完全散去，一位中介已带着广州看房团匆匆奔赴楼盘——这样的奔忙让他每月能促成十余宗交易。另一边，来自深 圳的中介干脆"常驻"香港，"咨询电话被打爆，加班成了日常"。 售楼处里，南来北往的购房者摩肩接踵，其中既有扎根香港的普通家庭，也有近两年通过人才计划赴港的新市民，他们正趁着政策松动、利率下滑的窗口 期，实现从"租客"到"业主"的跨越。 楼盘的热销数据更直观地印证着这份热度：启德天玺·天第2期次轮推出的56个单位即日售罄，超额认购达37倍，实现连续两轮"日光"；湾仔春园街 SPRING GARDEN项目两小时内售罄，套现超5.6亿港元；九龙城瑧博首日开盘，115套房源瞬间沽清…… 一个个"日光"案例，将香港楼市久违的热度推至台前，仿佛按下了发展的"加速键"。 数据印证回暖：量价齐升的明确信号 市场的火热并非偶然，权威数据给出了坚实支撑。差饷物业估价署数据显示，香港9月私人住宅售价指数升至292.5，连续第四个月上涨，创下14个月以来 的新高。 豪宅市场的表现尤为亮眼。10月香港录得66宗成交金额逾5000万港元的大额房屋交易，较9月的33宗实现翻倍，创下一年来的新高。从全年数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the Hong Kong property market, after seven years of stagnation, is expected to enter a rising cycle lasting 4 to 5 years; UBS sees the Hong Kong residential property market at a turning point, anticipating a similar upward trend over the next 3 to 5 years [2][9]. Market Recovery - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a resurgence, with significant buyer interest and rapid sales in various projects, such as the Kai Tak project selling 56 units in one day with a subscription rate of 37 times [3][5]. - The private residential price index in Hong Kong rose to 292.5 in September, marking the highest level in 14 months and the fourth consecutive month of increase [6]. - In October, the number of first-hand transactions exceeded 1,700, maintaining over 1,000 transactions for the ninth consecutive month, with luxury properties seeing a notable increase in sales [8]. Factors Behind the Recovery - The Hong Kong government has implemented several policies since early last year, including the elimination of additional stamp duties on residential property transactions, significantly reducing costs for local and mainland buyers [13][17]. - Mortgage rates have decreased, with the one-month HIBOR dropping to around 2.63%, leading to lower mortgage rates compared to earlier in the year [18][21]. - A talent policy has attracted a significant influx of people to Hong Kong, increasing potential homebuyers and driving up rental prices, with the rental index reaching a new high in September [22][24]. - The sustained rise in the Hong Kong stock market and the "asset scarcity" in mainland China have led to increased investment in Hong Kong real estate, with mainland buyers accounting for 24% of total transactions [25][26]. Comparative Analysis - The recovery in the Hong Kong property market differs from the debt crisis seen in mainland cities, as Hong Kong's developers maintain stable balance sheets and low mortgage default rates [29][30]. - The article suggests that while both markets are undergoing adjustments, their paths and underlying issues are distinct, with Hong Kong's market being more resilient due to its unique characteristics [30].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a surge in transactions, with significant increases in both new and secondary market sales due to favorable market conditions and interest rate cuts [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Central Plains Real Estate reported 16 transactions in its top ten estates over the weekend, a 60% increase from the previous week's 10 transactions [1] - Midland Realty recorded 17 transactions in its top ten secondary estates, a 70% increase year-on-year, maintaining double-digit activity for five consecutive weekends [1] - The total transactions in the top 15 estates reached 20, marking an increase of approximately 66.7% compared to the previous week [1] Group 2: Buyer Sentiment - The market is filled with positive news, leading to increased buyer confidence, with many buyers accelerating their purchasing decisions due to fears of rising prices [1] - There is a notable presence of first-time buyers, investors, and large-scale buyers in the market, indicating a robust demand for both new and secondary properties [1] - The ongoing effects of interest rate cuts are driving buyer interest, with expectations for continued price increases in the secondary market [1] Group 3: Regional Performance - In the Hong Kong Island area, three estates recorded one transaction each, a 100% increase from the previous week [2] - The Kowloon area saw a total of five transactions across four estates, a decrease of approximately 28.6% week-on-week [2] - The New Territories experienced a significant surge, with ten transactions across three estates, reflecting a 400% increase from the previous week [2]