俄罗斯国防部通报称，自当地时间6月1日20时10分至2日2时，俄军防空系统在库尔斯克州、别尔哥罗德州、利佩茨克州、 沃罗涅日州、布良斯克州、梁赞州、奥廖尔州、坦波夫州和克里米亚地区上空共击落162架乌克兰无人机。其中在库尔斯克 州上空击落57架。 根据乌克兰空军2日发布的消息，从当地时间6月1日21时30分以来，俄军使用80架无人机、3枚弹道导弹和1枚巡航导弹发动 袭击。截至当地时间6月2日早上8时30分，乌军通过火力和电子战压制，共击落52架无人机。 第二轮俄乌谈判前夕飞出数只"黑天鹅" 就在第二轮俄乌谈判召开前夕，多起"黑天鹅"事件却接连发生。其中包括24小时内俄两州发生两起桥梁坍塌事故、乌方透 露对俄发起特别行动摧毁俄41架战略轰炸机、乌陆军司令因训练营遭袭辞职等事件。 俄乌第二轮直接谈判在土耳其举行 △6月2日，土耳其伊斯坦布尔契拉昂宫，俄乌代表团分别进入谈判会场。 当地时间6月2日，俄罗斯与乌克兰第二轮直接谈判在土耳其伊斯坦布尔的契拉昂宫举行。 当天，乌克兰代表团抵达土耳其伊斯坦布尔。乌代表团人员共14人，仍由乌克兰国防部长乌梅罗夫率领。 俄罗斯代表团于1日抵达，仍由俄罗斯总统助理梅金斯基率领。据此 ...

每经编辑｜毕陆名 据央视新闻6月2日消息，当地时间6月1日，记者获悉，据一位未透露姓名的美国政府官员消息，特朗普政府并未提前获悉乌克兰会在本周末对俄罗斯 发起大规模袭击行动。 乌克兰国家安全局1日晚在社交媒体发文称，当天对俄罗斯实施了特种作战行动，袭击了俄军的战略轰炸机。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基当晚在视频讲话中说，乌国家安全局为此次行动筹备了一年半之久。在此次作战行动中，乌方出动117架无人机对俄多个州的机 场实施了袭击。另据乌克兰国际文传电讯社报道，乌国家安全局当天对俄境内四座军用机场实施了特种作战，俄方包括图-95和图-22战略轰炸机在内 的41架战机遭到乌无人机袭击。 知情人士透露，该行动在后勤保障方面极具挑战性：先通过秘密渠道向俄境内输送FPV无人机，后转运移动木制伪装装置。在俄境内，无人机被隐藏 于卡车装载的木质结构顶棚下，待命期间保持静默，最终通过远程激活实施打击。据乌克兰媒体报道，乌克兰安全局消息称所有参与行动人员均已安 全返回乌克兰，俄方所谓"破坏分子落网"之说纯属信息操纵。 俄乌第二轮谈判将于6月2日举行。根据土耳其外交部在1日晚间发布消息，本次会谈将于当地时间2日13时在伊斯坦布尔的契拉昂宫举 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve must take decisive and strong policy actions to address inflation deviations from targets, especially in the context of rising trade protectionism and tariffs under the Trump administration [1][3] Group 1: Inflation Management - Inflation expectations management is a core pillar of modern central bank policy frameworks [1] - Historical experience indicates that the root causes of persistent inflation often stem from unanchored expectations, and the cost of restoring these expectations can rise exponentially [1][3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Geopolitical Risks - Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks significantly impact inflation dynamics, with the COVID-19 pandemic causing notable supply shocks that increase economic uncertainty [3] - The public's perception of future prices may undergo nonlinear changes due to sudden shocks [3] Group 3: Trade Policy Impact - The trade policies under the Trump administration complicate Federal Reserve decision-making, as tariffs exert pressure on the economy through both imported inflation and demand suppression [3] - The Federal Reserve has been assessing the lagged effects of trade policies on inflation since maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December of the previous year [3] Group 4: Financial System Resilience - Current data from the New York Fed indicates that the banking system has sufficient reserves to withstand potential shocks, providing an important buffer for the market [3] - Adequate liquidity reserves will determine the financial system's resilience in the face of "black swan" events [3] Group 5: Policy Forward Guidance - The Federal Reserve emphasizes a data-dependent approach, avoiding overreaction to temporary fluctuations while guarding against the accumulation of potential risks [3] - The most effective policy is proactive expectation management rather than reactive crisis response [3]

Market Trend Analysis - Macro Global Markets processes 120 million market data points every minute, providing effective intelligence equivalent to a medium-sized library for each user every second [3] - The "Three-Dimensional Policy Shock Model" quantifies central bank interest rate paths, fiscal stimulus scales, and regulatory frameworks into tradable parameters, predicting that a one-month delay in the Fed's balance sheet reduction could narrow emerging market bond spreads by 8-12 basis points [3] Investment Strategy Core - The global macro strategy of Macro Global Markets is regarded as a "decision-making bible" due to its three-layer penetrating analysis framework, focusing on economic fundamentals, political cycles, and technological leaps [5] - The "Volatility Quadrant Tool" redefines risk-return ratios by categorizing assets into four types, with a recommendation to increase allocation to low correlation, high volatility assets to hedge against geopolitical risks, achieving a 3.2% positive return during a 9% drop in the Nasdaq index [5] Risk Quantification - The "Stress Test Matrix" offers a solution that surpasses traditional VaR models, simulating both sudden shocks and chronic risks, predicting a 12%-15% valuation correction for China's new energy vehicle sector if EU carbon tariffs expand [6] - The "Options Implied Volatility Surface Anomaly Scanning System" has successfully captured early signs of multiple black swan events, providing a 72-hour window for institutional investors to adjust their positions ahead of potential Fed rate cuts [6] Future Economic Forecast - Predictions indicate that 2026 may become the "year of AI productivity realization," driven by breakthroughs in general artificial intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, and controllable nuclear fusion [8] - The "Geopolitical Heat Index" suggests Southeast Asia is emerging as a new value area, with significant growth in infrastructure investment and digital payment penetration, recommending a focus on tech-consumer hybrid sectors in the region [8] Conclusion - Macro Global Markets' "anti-fragile analysis system" combines machine learning with human insights to navigate market uncertainties, helping professional investors create a "wealth navigation map" for the current era [9]

文章来源：公众号喵姐交易日记 周一可能出现一些迹象，周五10年期美国国债收益率在成交量清淡的情况下一度升至4.49%，而追踪标准普尔500指数的交易所交易基金(ETF)盘后下跌 0.6%。 富兰克林邓普顿投资解决方案副首席投资官马克斯·戈克曼表示："在持续不断、资金匮乏的财政慷慨政策下，且势必加速的情况下，美国国债评级下调并 不令人意外。随着主权和机构大型投资者开始逐步将美国国债换成其他避险资产，偿债成本将继续攀升。不幸的是，这可能会给美国债券收益率带来危险 的熊市螺旋式上升，进一步给美元带来下行压力，并降低美国股市的吸引力。" 周一(5月19日)，美元指数跌至100.81，黄金回升至3246美元，比特币跌深后反弹至106600美元附近。穆迪下调美国评级，进一步给美元带来下行压力。美 国贸易战恐慌回归，美国总统特朗普抨击沃尔玛(Walmart)因关税而涨价。 黑天鹅事件：穆迪下调美国评级美元买盘受挫 投资者本周交易开局仍将面临又一次坎坷，不过这一次，引发波动的可能是对美国债务而非关税的日益担忧。 周一亚洲金融市场重新开市，此前，穆迪评级公司周五晚间宣布，将美国政府的信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1。穆迪的评级落后 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of decision-making in life and investment, emphasizing that good decisions can lead to better opportunities and outcomes [1][2] - It highlights the case of Bill Ackman, who made a significant profit of $3.6 billion by strategically using credit default swaps (CDS) to hedge against the risks posed by the COVID-19 pandemic [3][4] - Ackman's approach involved a small investment of $26 million in CDS linked to $71 billion of corporate debt, which proved to be a successful hedge as the pandemic unfolded [4][26] Group 2 - The article introduces the concept of "black swan" events, which are rare, impactful, and often unpredictable occurrences that can reshape industries and economies [5][11] - It outlines the characteristics of black swan events, including their rarity, significant impact, post-event explanations, and the potential for preemptive measures [8][10] - The article emphasizes that black swan events are not just negative occurrences; positive black swan events can also lead to unexpected opportunities [16][40] Group 3 - Ackman's strategy during the pandemic exemplifies the "barbell strategy" or "tail risk hedging," where a small investment is made to protect against extreme outcomes while maintaining a larger portfolio [24][26] - The article suggests that successful investors like Ackman are sensitive to tail risks and can capitalize on unexpected market movements [31][32] - It concludes that while luck plays a role in investment success, skilled decision-makers are better positioned to seize opportunities when they arise [32][33]

Group 1 - National security is a fundamental cornerstone for the stability of the nation, with the overall national security concept proposed by the central leadership providing essential guidance for security work in the new era [1][4] - The relationship between national security and modernization is emphasized, indicating that national security is crucial for the steady progress of Chinese-style modernization [1][2] - The rapid growth of China's GDP from 54.75 trillion yuan in 2012 to an expected 134.91 trillion yuan in 2024 highlights the significant economic achievements during the modernization process [2] Group 2 - The current global landscape is characterized by unprecedented changes, with rising anti-globalization sentiments and frequent local conflicts, complicating the national security situation [3] - The challenges faced by China in transitioning from a middle-income to a high-income country are more complex, with various risks and uncertainties emerging [3] - The overall national security concept, established in 2014, emphasizes a comprehensive approach to security, integrating various aspects of national safety and guiding the country's security practices [5][6] Group 3 - The interaction between high-quality development and high-level security is crucial, with the need to balance development and security being a significant principle in governance [7][8] - High-quality development is seen as a solution to various security risks, with a focus on enhancing economic and technological strength to address challenges [8] - The importance of technological self-reliance and innovation in ensuring national security and development is highlighted, particularly in the context of international competition [8]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of restructuring the learning mindset in finance, advocating for a gradual approach to mastering complex concepts [1] - It suggests breaking down learning into a "knowledge tree" model, starting with foundational concepts and gradually extending to application scenarios [1] - The article highlights the value of using storytelling and practical simulations to visualize abstract financial formulas [1] Group 2 - It accepts the notion of "trial and error" as a valuable learning process in finance, encouraging the use of simulation trading to allow for mistakes [2] - The article stresses the importance of analyzing decision-making processes and learning from past investment failures to improve future strategies [2] - It promotes the idea that seemingly unrelated financial knowledge can have practical applications in everyday decision-making [2] Group 3 - The ultimate goal of financial learning is to develop "cognitive flexibility," enabling individuals to assess market conditions and risks calmly [2] - It encourages maintaining a humble "seeker" mindset rather than a "gambler" mentality to effectively navigate market volatility [2]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected failure of Friedrich Merz, the candidate for Chancellor from the German CDU party, to secure enough votes in the first round of voting has caused significant market reactions and raised concerns about the stability of the German government and its implications for the European market [2][4]. Group 1: Political Developments - Friedrich Merz failed to be elected Chancellor in the first round of voting, marking the first time since World War II that a candidate did not receive parliamentary support in the first round [2][4]. - The CDU and SPD had recently signed a coalition agreement, which was expected to facilitate the formation of a new government [4]. - Merz received only 310 votes, falling short of the 316 needed for a majority, which surprised many, including members of his own party [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the voting results, the DAX 30 index dropped over 2%, impacting stock indices across Europe, including a decline of 0.46% in the Euro Stoxx 50 and 0.32% in the French CAC40 [2][3]. - The DAX index's decline was later moderated to a 0.6% drop as the market reacted to the news [5]. Group 3: EU Trade Policies - The EU is preparing retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs, with plans to impose tariffs on approximately €100 billion (about $113 billion) worth of U.S. goods if trade negotiations do not yield satisfactory results [6][8]. - EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis indicated that the EU would not accept unfair pressure from the U.S. and is considering all options for countermeasures [7][8]. - Current U.S. tariffs cover 70% of EU exports to the U.S., which could rise to 97% following further investigations into U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [8].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 过去几年，人民币债券是一轮小牛市。 到了2024年，长期债券在上涨后，波动也逐渐变大。 很多朋友都会关心： 这里为大家准备了一门限时免费的课程，详细介绍了债券指数基金的相关问题。 长按识别下方二维码，添加@课程小助手，回复「 债券基金 」即可领取～ ◆◆◆ · 债券基金的收益和风险，有哪些特点？ · 为何普通投资者，更适合投资债券指数基金？ · 当前哪些债券指数基金，投资价值较高？ 这就是很典型的黑天鹅事件。 同样的，在2020年初，当时疫情刚开始， 原油价格出现暴跌。 发生了，破坏力又非常大的事件。 例如在1987年10月，美股遇到了大股灾。 当时美股道琼斯指数单日下跌超过20%。 原因是，当时计算机算法交易引入到投资 程序中。 当一部分股票下跌，计算机检测到之后， 会触发止损交易，卖出股票。 但是卖出导致股票进一步下跌，引发更多 的自动卖出交易，最终席卷整个市场。 这种程序交易在当时引入时间并不长，也 没有投资者能事先预料到，会那么短时间 出现如此巨大的跌幅。 原油期货价格也大幅下跌，甚至一度接近 到零。 有的投资者觉得,原油期货价格怎么都不 会低于0，就投入资金。 ...