Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the black metal market rebounded slightly after a significant decline. Demand is gradually entering the off - season and is expected to remain under pressure. With a high degree of uncertainty in the macro - environment and insufficient market speculation sentiment, prices are expected to have further downside potential [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Supply - MySteel's weekly data shows that the total output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons to 218.46 tons this week, with electric furnace output falling by 0.59 tons and blast furnace output dropping by 6.46 tons. The SAC旬ly data indicates that steel production is at a high level. With good steel mill profits, overall production is expected to remain at the current level [3][10]. 3.2 Demand - The apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly this week, showing overall weakness. It is expected that demand will be hard to show strong performance in the third quarter. As demand enters the off - season, it will continue to be under pressure. The high capacity utilization rate of cement clinker reflects some support from the infrastructure sector [17]. 3.3 Inventory - The total rebar inventory continued to decline slightly this week. The rebar mill inventory decreased by 1.60 tons to about 184.86 tons, and the social inventory dropped by 8.97 tons to 385.62 tons. The total inventory fell by 10.57 tons to 570.48 tons. The SAC旬ly data shows that the steel inventory of member enterprises remains at the average level [23]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The estimated immediate blast furnace cost is around 2,750 yuan/ton, and the 15 - day average cost is about 2,800 yuan/ton. The average含税 cost of steel billets from mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2,862 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 27 yuan/ton. Compared with the price of common square billets on June 4th (2,900 yuan/ton), steel mills have an average profit of 38 yuan/ton [27]. 3.5 Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures prices continued to decline, while spot prices fell less, leading to an expansion of the basis. The Shanghai Zhongtian rebar spot price dropped from 3,120 yuan to 3,110 yuan, and the Tangshan Qian'an steel billet price decreased from 2,920 yuan to 2,880 yuan [3][30][31]. 3.6 Futures Spreads and Related Product Ratios - Iron ore prices are oscillating at a high level, and the ratio of the main rebar contract to iron ore futures remains at a low level. With weak real - world demand for finished products, the ferrous metal market is expected to have limited upside potential [37]. 3.7 Statistical Bureau - Related Data - From January to April, China's real estate investment and new housing construction area decreased by 10.3% and 23.8% year - on - year respectively. The decline in real estate investment widened by 0.4 percentage points compared with January - March, while the decline in new housing construction area narrowed by 0.6 percentage points [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal industry is mainly driven by industrial fundamentals, with the overall valuation center gradually shifting down due to the loose supply of furnace materials. Different sub - sectors show different trends. For example, the sentiment - driven rebound in rebar trading is cooling, while silicon iron in ferroalloys may continue to rebound due to tight spot supply [6][151]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - **Supply**: Bearish. The average daily pig iron output has slightly decreased to 244wt +, but the short - term downward space for output is limited. For a significant production reduction, it requires weakening demand for plates or domestic building materials, inventory accumulation, and negative production profits [6]. - **Demand**: Neutral. The weekly demand has rebounded after the holiday. Steel exports are still strong, but the price rebound is limited by export profit ceilings [6]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. After the holiday impact, inventory removal and apparent demand have returned to normal, with a relatively low total inventory level [6]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis has slightly widened, and the futures are at a discount [6]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spot steel mill profit has fallen to a low level, but the point - to - point profit is still positive [6]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. After the price decline, the basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has widened, and the relative valuation is low, but there is still room for absolute valuation compression [6]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. The easing of Sino - US trade frictions has driven an emotional rebound, but the impact on the black metal sector is limited [6]. - **Investment View**: Hold. The black metal sector has a weak rebound, and the industrial driving logic remains unchanged. It is necessary to maintain a rolling sell - hedging strategy [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do a good job in hedging and position management and appropriately rotate positions; for arbitrage, take profit when the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread is below 90; for spot - futures trading, conduct a positive hot - rolled coil spot - futures arbitrage [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Neutral. The apparent demand for five major steel products has recovered, but the seasonal demand decline pressure will increase. The pig iron output has slightly decreased but may remain at a high level [49]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Bearish. Coal mines face increased shipping pressure, prices have generally fallen, and the domestic - foreign price difference remains large [49]. - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. Coke production is sufficient, and there is still an expectation of price cuts [49]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. Downstream enterprises are actively reducing inventory, while upstream coal mines are passively accumulating inventory [49]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The first - round coke price cut has been implemented, and the cost of warehouse receipts has changed [49]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills' profitability is good, and coking profits have increased, but there is an expectation of coke price cuts [49]. - **Summary**: Bearish. The main trading logic of the black metal sector is the upstream's continuous profit - sharing with the downstream due to the loose supply of furnace materials. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the JM9 - 1 positive arbitrage [49]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: Neutral. Iron ore shipments are stable, and the impact of port incidents is limited. The overall supply is in a neutral state [97]. - **Demand**: Neutral. The pig iron output has reached a high level and may decline slightly, and the port inventory will experience a small - scale de - stocking [97]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The port inventory will stably and slightly decrease with stable arrivals and pig iron production [97]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills' profits are still good, so the pig iron output will remain stable in the short term [97]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. With the high - level pig iron output and the expectation of production control, the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [97]. - **Inter - month Spread**: Bullish. The near - month contract has good demand, while the far - month contract faces greater supply pressure [97]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bearish. Without considering production control, the iron ore market will be in a weak shock in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, the market needs steel mills' spontaneous production cuts [97]. - **Investment View**: Shock. The iron ore market is expected to be in a shock state [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting when the price is above 100 US dollars; for arbitrage, reduce positions and take profit on the 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [97]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Supply**: Manganese silicon is neutral, and silicon iron is bullish. There have been continuous production cuts by large manufacturers. Silicon iron has tight spot resources, while manganese silicon has no expectation of large - scale production cuts after profit recovery [151]. - **Demand**: Bullish. The pig iron output has slightly decreased, and Hebei Steel's tender has entered the market with an increased volume [151]. - **Inventory**: Manganese silicon is bearish, and silicon iron is bullish. The manganese silicon warehouse receipts have decreased, and the overall inventory is still high, while the silicon iron warehouse receipts have slightly increased, and the social inventory is low [151]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The manganese silicon basis has strengthened, and the month - spread is stable; the silicon iron basis is stable, and the month - spread has strengthened [151]. - **Cost**: Neutral. The manganese silicon cost remains stable, and the silicon iron cost is affected by factors such as raw material prices [151]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The overall valuation is in a neutral state [151]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. Trump's attitude towards China's tariffs has improved, which will drive the actual demand for commodities [151]. - **Investment View**: Shock. Silicon iron may continue to rebound due to tight spot supply, while manganese silicon is expected to move in a shock state. Pay attention to Hebei Steel's tender pricing [151]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, hold long positions in silicon iron; for arbitrage, conduct an inter - month positive arbitrage [151].

Report Information - Report Date: May 13, 2025 [3] - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar dropped from a high level, with a daily increase of 0.88%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Although the Sino-US trade negotiation has made substantial progress and market sentiment has improved, the demand for rebar is expected to weaken seasonally due to the lack of improvement in major downstream industries. The fundamentals of rebar are difficult to improve substantially, and the steel price will continue to face pressure. The steel price will continue to fluctuate under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][39]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The main contract price of hot-rolled coil rose first and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.78%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the supply of hot-rolled coil is at a high level, and the demand has weakened. The fundamentals are weak under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to face pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the overseas risk has temporarily eased and the market sentiment has recovered. It is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil will stabilize in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][40]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated at a high level, with a daily increase of 1.06%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. The substantial progress of the Sino-US trade negotiation has improved market sentiment and driven the iron ore price to rebound from a low level. However, the demand is approaching its peak, and the supply is increasing. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the upside space is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4][41]. Summary by Section Industry Dynamics - **Automobile Industry**: As of May 13, 2025, 20 automobile companies announced their production and sales data for April. BYD ranked first with sales of 380,100 vehicles, followed by SAIC Group and Geely Auto with sales of 376,500 and 234,100 vehicles respectively. Only 7 companies achieved positive month-on-month sales growth in April, with Seres having the largest increase of 45.24%. Sixty percent of the companies achieved year-on-year sales growth in April, with BAIC BluePark having the largest increase of 258.33%, followed by Ankai Bus with a year-on-year increase of 58.22% [6]. - **Home Appliance Market**: In April, the online retail sales of color TVs increased by 21.3% year-on-year, the average price increased by 15.4% year-on-year, the retail sales of color TVs priced above 5,500 yuan accounted for 36.4%, and the proportion increased by 6.4 percentage points year-on-year. Among different sizes of color TVs, the retail sales of color TVs with a size of 75 inches and above accounted for 31.0%, and the proportion increased by 7.2 percentage points year-on-year. For white goods, the online retail sales of refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, independent dryers, and air conditioners increased by 1.0%, -0.8%, 10.8%, 45.0%, and 34.8% year-on-year respectively [7]. - **Steel Industry in Fuzhou**: By 2025, Fuzhou aims to increase the proportion of short-process steelmaking output to over 15%. By 2030, technologies such as hydrogen-rich carbon cycle blast furnace smelting, hydrogen-based direct reduction iron in shaft furnaces, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage are expected to achieve breakthrough applications [8]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,220 yuan, 3,210 yuan, and 3,334 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,260 yuan, 3,210 yuan, and 3,337 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet (Q235) was 2,950 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,130 yuan [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was 748 yuan. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 7.56 yuan and 18.35 yuan respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) was 100.49 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 98.60 yuan [9]. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main contract of rebar was 3,079 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.88%. The trading volume was 1,930,069 lots, and the open interest decreased by 29,285 lots [13]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The closing price of the main contract of hot-rolled coil was 3,215 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.78%. The trading volume was 660,865 lots, and the open interest decreased by 29,461 lots [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the main contract of iron ore was 714.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.06%. The trading volume was 434,573 lots, and the open interest increased by 9,557 lots [13]. Related Charts - The report includes charts on steel and iron ore inventories, prices, and production, such as rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil inventory, iron ore inventory at 45 ports, and the operating rate of blast furnaces and electric furnaces [15][20][38] Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply-demand pattern of rebar has weakened, and inventory has started to accumulate. Although the supply has decreased slightly due to the maintenance of construction steel mills, the reduction space is limited. The demand for rebar has weakened significantly due to holiday factors, and is expected to weaken seasonally. The steel price will continue to face pressure and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The supply of hot-rolled coil has continued to increase and is at a high level this year, while the demand has weakened significantly due to holiday factors. Although the production of downstream cold-rolled products remains high, the fundamental contradiction is accumulating. The price of hot-rolled coil will continue to face pressure and is expected to stabilize in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [40]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply-demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Although the demand for iron ore is relatively good, the incremental space is limited. The supply of iron ore remains at a high level, which will continue to suppress the price. The iron ore price has rebounded from a low level due to improved market sentiment, but the upside space is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [41].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each sub - industry: - **Threaded Steel**: Investment view is to "observe" [7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Suggests "shorting on rallies", with a generally bearish outlook [49] - **Iron Ore**: Investment view is "sideways trading" [95] - **Ferroalloys**: Investment view is "sideways trading" [149] 2. Core Views - The core logic of the black sector is that the supply of furnace materials is becoming more abundant, and the upstream of the industrial chain is making concessions to the downstream. Cost loosening has led to a downward shift in the valuation center. The impact of demand - side and supply - side policies on prices is currently limited [7]. - The performance of different sub - industries is affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, cost, and policies. For example, in the coking coal and coke market, the increasing supply and the expected decline in demand are the main factors leading to the bearish outlook [49]. 3. Summary by Sub - industry 3.1 Threaded Steel - **Supply**: Currently at a high level, with limited short - term downward potential. Future production reduction may require weakening demand and negative production profits [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand data has weakened, but it is necessary to observe for 1 - 2 weeks to distinguish between the impact of the holiday and actual demand decline. Export demand remains strong [7]. - **Inventory**: Affected by the holiday, it is necessary to observe for 1 - 2 weeks to determine the real demand situation [7]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is stable, and the futures are at a discount [7]. - **Profit**: Spot steel mill profits have declined to a low level but are still in the positive range [7]. - **Valuation**: Relatively low, with room for further compression [7]. - **Macro and Policy**: The market's response to macro - policies is not positive, and the short - term market may be affected by Sino - US trade negotiations [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do rolling hedging and position management; for arbitrage, take profit when the spread between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel is below 90; for spot - futures trading, conduct positive arbitrage on hot - rolled coil [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: There is a need to pay attention to whether the expected decline in steel demand is realized. High - level hot metal production continues [49][62]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Mines are accumulating inventory, and the pressure on production - end shipments is increasing. The price of Mongolian coal is declining, and the domestic - foreign price difference remains large [49][70]. - **Coke Supply**: Supply is still sufficient, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing [49][73]. - **Inventory**: Coke inventory shows a decline in all links according to one institution, but the opposite according to another. Coking coal inventory shows a pattern of upstream accumulation and downstream reduction [49][75]. - **Basis/Spread**: The expectation of coke price cuts is rising, and the cost of coke warehouse receipts is changing [49]. - **Profit**: Steel mills' profitability is good, while the profitability of coking plants is weak, and the expectation of coke price cuts is increasing [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short on rallies; for arbitrage, conduct positive arbitrage on the JM9 - 1 contract [49]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: Shipment is stable, but the overall shipment situation is not as expected at the beginning of the year [95]. - **Demand**: Steel mill hot metal production continues to rise, and the demand in May is expected to remain high, leading to a slight decline in port inventory [95]. - **Inventory**: With stable arrivals and hot metal production, port inventory will decline slightly [95]. - **Profit**: Steel mill profits are still good, so hot metal production will remain stable in the short term [95]. - **Valuation**: In the short term, the valuation is relatively neutral under the expectation of production restrictions [95]. - **Cross - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread is recommended for positive arbitrage due to factors such as high near - month demand and greater far - month supply pressure [95]. - **Macro and Policy**: Without considering production restrictions, the iron ore market will be in a weak sideways trend in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, steel mills' self - initiated production cuts may occur [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider single - side shorting above $100; continue to hold the 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [95]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Supply**: The production reduction of manganese silicon has expanded, while the production of ferrosilicon has rebounded due to electricity price concessions in Ningxia, but losses in other regions are increasing [149]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production remains at a high level of 245 [149]. - **Inventory**: Manganese silicon has a heavy warehouse receipt inventory pressure, and the factory inventory of ferrosilicon is declining rapidly, but the 06 warehouse receipts need to be cancelled [149]. - **Basis/Spread**: The current futures are at a large discount, and the basis and monthly spread are strengthening due to production cuts [149]. - **Cost**: The cost of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is under downward pressure, with factors such as the decline in manganese ore prices and electricity price subsidies [149]. - **Valuation**: Relatively low [149]. - **Macro and Policy**: A high - level meeting was held, and an interest rate cut was implemented, but the magnitude was in line with expectations [149]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long on ferrosilicon; for arbitrage, observe [149].