一、螺纹供应 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹长流程产量 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹短流程产量 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢总产量 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 华 金 期 货 螺 纹 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/6/5 螺纹周度汇总 | | 供应 | | | 螺纹产量本周小幅回落，整体维持低位波动，钢厂利润可观，预计整体产量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 仍将维持在当前水平，持续关注钢厂产量与利润的边际变化。 | | | | | 需求 | 表观需求本周大幅回落，需求逐渐进入淡季，预计仍将会承压，水泥熟料产 | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The black metal industry is currently in a weak state, with the narrative of "weak supply and demand" in the steel industry, and the off - season pressure is gradually being realized. The prices of various products such as rebar, coking coal, coke, and iron ore are under pressure [3][5][7][35][85] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - **Supply**: The daily average pig iron output has declined for 3 consecutive weeks to around 242, and it may continue to decline slowly. The raw material support is weak, and the trigger conditions for rapid market - based production cuts are not fully met [7] - **Demand**: There is no significant weakening in demand for now, but there are concerns about the sustainability of demand, especially the possible decline in steel exports. The SMM high - frequency export data reached a high point in May [7] - **Inventory**: It can still maintain seasonal destocking, with a low total inventory level, and the industry is in a state of active destocking [7] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis has slightly expanded, and the futures price remains at a discount to the spot price. As of Friday, the basis of rb2505 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 79, a slight expansion of 15 from the previous week [7] - **Profit**: Long - process steel production still has profits, while short - process production profits are unstable, mostly in the negative range [7] - **Valuation**: The production links in the industrial chain have meager profits, with relatively low relative valuations and still room for compression in absolute valuations [7] - **Macro and Policy**: There may be fluctuations in the trade war, and there is a short - term vacuum in macro - policies. There is no new definite information on industrial production restrictions [7] - **Investment View**: It is recommended to wait and see. The macro - environment is uncertain, and the next important observation window is the major meeting in July [7] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do a good job in hedging and open - position management and appropriately rotate inventories. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar when it is high. For spot - futures trading, conduct positive basis trading for hot - rolled coil [7] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The off - season pressure is gradually being realized. The apparent demand for five major steel products is slightly better than expected, but the overall off - season pressure is increasing. The pig iron output continues to decline, and many steel mills choose to carry out timely maintenance [35] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mines face increasing shipment pressure, with continued production cuts and inventory accumulation. Mongolian coal prices have collectively declined, and the price difference between domestic and international seaborne coal remains large [35] - **Coke Supply**: Coke supply is sufficient. Although the production has decreased slightly this week, coke enterprises still have profits due to the rapid decline in the cost of coking coal [35] - **Inventory**: Downstream enterprises control the arrival of goods, and upstream enterprises face increasing shipment pressure. The inventory of coal and coke continues to show a bearish trend [35] - **Basis/Spread**: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts [35] - **Profit**: Steel mills still have good profits, but some have reduced production. Coke enterprises still have profits despite the decline in data [35] - **Summary**: The market continues the previous downward trend, and the black chain index continues to trade on the off - season and the collapse of raw material costs. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for coal and coke [35] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, mainly short. For arbitrage, conduct a positive spread trade between JM9 and JM1 [35] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The shipment has shown a seasonal rebound, and the overall supply is in a neutral state. Attention should be paid to the possible significant increase in shipment due to the annual and quarterly production - volume rush of some mines in June [85] - **Demand**: The pig iron output of steel mills has continued to decline, mainly due to the routine maintenance of large blast furnaces. The steel mills' profits have shrunk, and there are concerns about the stability of steel exports [85] - **Inventory**: With the expected increase in supply in June and the downward trend of pig iron output, port inventories will gradually stabilize or even show a slight increase [85] - **Profit**: Although the steel mills' profits have declined, the pressure is not great, and the pig iron output can still remain at a high level in the short term [85] - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is relatively neutral as the pig iron output is at a high level [85] - **Macro and Policy**: There is an expectation of increased supply in the furnace material sector in June, and the pig iron output is at risk of decline. The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state [85] - **Investment View**: The market is expected to be volatile [85] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting when the price is above $100. For arbitrage, close all positive spread trades between the September and January contracts [85]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-05-19 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 陈佳鑫 从业资格证号：F03100607 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 目录 | 01 | | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 情 绪 反 弹 交 易 在 降 温 ， 产 业 弱 叙 事 依 旧 是 定 价 主 驱 | | 动 | 02 焦煤焦炭 宏 观 利 好 带 来 脉 冲 式 反 弹 03 铁矿石 04 铁合金 产 业 定 价 为 主 硅 铁 现 货 偏 紧 反 弹 或 延 续 ， 锰 硅 暂 无 新 增 减 产 预 期 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 螺纹钢 螺纹钢：情绪反弹交易在降温，产业弱叙事依旧是定价主驱动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 宏观利好兑现，钢矿震荡企稳 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价高位回落，录得 0.88%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 中美贸易谈判取得实质性进展，市场情绪回暖，黑色金属集体回升，但 主要下游行业未好转，螺纹需求将季节性走弱，螺纹基本面仍难实质性 改善，钢价继续承压运行，多空因素博弈下钢价延续震荡运行态势，关 注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价冲高回落，录得 0.78%日涨幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷供应高位运行，压力相对偏大，而需求有所走弱，供强需弱局 面下基本面表现偏弱，热卷价格继续承压，相对利好则是海外风险暂 缓，市场情绪修复，预计热卷价格短期震荡企稳，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价高位震荡，录得 1.06%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，中美贸易谈判取得实质性性进展，市场情绪回暖，驱动矿价低位回 升，但需求趋于触顶，且供应在回升，基本面预期走弱，上行空间谨慎 乐观，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-05-12 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 陈佳鑫 从业资格证号：F03100607 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 目录 01 螺纹钢 需 求 数 据 走 弱 ， 产 业 定 价 逻 辑 依 旧 基 于 弱 预 期 盘 面 创 新 低 ， 提 降 预 期 逐 渐 升 温 | 02 | | --- | | 焦煤焦炭 | 04 铁合金 铁 水 见 顶 预 期 增 强 减 产 扩 大 但 碳 元 素 存 下 调 预 期 ， 双 硅 或 进 入 底 部 震 荡 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 螺纹钢 螺纹钢：需求数据走弱，产业定价逻辑依旧基于弱预期 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | - ...