交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 7 日 今日焦点 | 小米集团 | | 1810 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 人车家全生态，领跑中国智造，首予买入 | | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 港元 53.10 | 目标价: 港元 60.00 | 潜在涨幅: +13.0% | | 童钰枫 | Carrie.Tong@bocomgroup.com | | 小米作为中国科技行业核心标的，也是自主创新和国产替代先锋，对贸 易不确定因素的直接敞口较小。我们认为，之前小米配售有利于其核心 业务扩展，长期利好公司股价，近期股价回调或提供买入机会。围绕「 人车家全生态」战略，公司业务呈四大亮点：1）智能手机高端化持续突 破，海外市场空间广阔；2）小米汽车精准打造爆品，关注后续产能情况 ；3）积极加码大家电，拓展 AIoT 线下和海外渠道；4）互联网收入有望 借助高端化和海外拓展提升变现能力。 存储器成本下降对智能手机毛利率的正面影响或在 1H25 集中释放。智 能汽车产能继续释放，或在 2025 年扭亏为盈。 首予买入，目标价 60 港元。我们预测 2025/26 年小米总收入分别同比增 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for Xiaomi Group for 2025 and 2026 by 4.6% and 3.8% to CNY 40.197 billion and CNY 54.743 billion respectively, maintaining a target price of HKD 70, indicating a potential upside of 40.1% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 is expected to grow by 53.03% year-on-year, with revenue projected to increase by 44.85% to CNY 109.37 billion [2] - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments are expected to rise by 3% year-on-year to 41.8 million units globally, with a 40% increase in the Chinese market, leading to a revenue growth of 8.3% to CNY 50.327 billion [3] - IoT revenue is anticipated to grow by 52% year-on-year to CNY 30.968 billion, with a gross margin increase of 3.68 percentage points to 23.5% [4] Group 2: Automotive Business - The delivery of the Xiaomi SU7 is projected to reach 76,000 units in Q1 2025, generating revenue of CNY 18.18 billion, with a gross margin increase of 0.76 percentage points to 21.2% [5] - The company expects a 192% year-on-year growth in automotive shipments in 2025, reaching 400,000 units, driven by the sales of SU7 Ultra and the upcoming launch of YU7 [5]

小米汽车官网显示，小米SU7 Ultra售价52.99万元，目前锁定订单后预计18周到21周交付。 小米集团创始人、董事长兼CEO雷军5月1日在其社交媒体平台发文，公布小米汽车4月交付数量并透 露了5月新增门店计划。 "4月，小米汽车交付量超28000台。小米SU7 Ultra双风道前舱盖版已陆续交付。"雷军表示，4月新增 34家门店，全国74城已有269家门店；全国已有132家服务网点，覆盖全国79城。 此外，雷军透露，今年5月计划新增29家门店，新增门店将覆盖宜昌、芜湖、咸阳、衢州、九江、大 理、抚州、揭阳等8座城市。 来源：长城新媒体 更多财经视频，请关注视频号"新浪财经" 往期回顾 画南航空 Hainan Airlines ............. 独家对话海航空姐:"我因一袋坚果被开除了" ASPANET 03 LEVE V 562 "大抛售" 突然！史诗级 在业内人士看来，小米汽车官方宣布当月交付量超过28000台，延续了其上市以来的强劲市场表现。 这一数据反映出小米汽车在产能爬坡和用户需求匹配上的持续优化。 与此同时，多家车企也纷纷"晒出"成绩单。例如，零跑汽车官方发文称，4月交付达41039 ...

小米的新款EV"SU7 Ultra"（Reuters） 3月22日，韩国三星电子会长李在镕来到小米在北京的EV工厂，并与小米首席执行官（CEO）雷 军会面。 三星寻找合作机会 三星和小米在智能手机领域展开了激烈的份额竞争。对未来经营抱有强烈危机感的李会长正在寻 找与在EV领域崛起的小米开展合作的契机，中国的主要媒体报道了这样的观点。 李在镕来到北京的目的是出席中国政府邀请全球大型企业高层参加的"中国发展高层论坛"。李在 镕的行为，彰显了小米在汽车市场的强劲势头和强大的存在感。 小米新涉足EV市场刚刚约一年时间。"特斯拉杀手"的称号名不虚传。根据中国知名汽车信息APP 的数据，2024年4月以来，SU7的中国销量达到了约18.6万辆，超过了特斯拉的Model 3。 SU7的价格为21.59万元起，比Model 3的23.55万起更便宜。其时尚的外观和性能的平衡受到了 消费者的追捧。 | 小米 | | 特斯拉 | | --- | --- | --- | | SU7 | | Model3 | | | SU7与Model3的 对比 | | | 21万5900~ | 价格 | 23万5500~ | | 29万9900元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [11][13]. Core Insights - The "Self-Pleasing" new consumption concept supports the successful launch of the SU7, with the YU7 expected to replicate this success. Xiaomi is accelerating its layout of extended-range models, entering a strong product cycle, and is expected to achieve rapid sales of one million vehicles. Based on Xiaomi's steady growth trend in high-end penetration in its smartphone and IoT businesses, as well as the rapid ramp-up of its automotive segment, the projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated to be 35.404 billion, 51.653 billion, and 65.531 billion yuan respectively [4][11]. Summary by Sections SU7 Initial Success and YU7 Potential - The 200,000 to 300,000 yuan price segment for cars is continuously expanding, with the SU7 positioned accurately and establishing a mid-to-high-end brand tone, achieving an average monthly sales of 23,000 units since its launch. The YU7 is expected to target a larger market and leverage its comprehensive strengths to potentially become another bestseller [7][34]. Xiaomi's Methodology and Automotive Success - Xiaomi's success in the smartphone and IoT sectors has led to the development of a unique "User + Product + Technology + Efficiency" methodology. This includes a large fan base, self-developed motor and control technology, supply chain management to reduce production costs, and a focus on creating blockbuster products [8][9]. Strong Model Cycle and Sales Projections - The high-end market is expanding, with significant opportunities for domestic alternatives in the electric and intelligent vehicle sectors. The projected sales for the high-end passenger car market (priced above 200,000 yuan) in 2024 is 9.443 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. The CAGR for high-end market sales from 2020 to 2024 is 14.6%, with domestic brands expected to capture a growing market share [9][10]. Brand Synergy and Ecosystem Integration - The launch of the SU7 not only marks the realization of Xiaomi's car manufacturing plans but also extends its "Smartphone + AIoT" ecosystem strategy into the automotive sector. The interconnected ecosystem enhances user stickiness and drives revenue growth across other product lines, with the lifetime value of automotive users exceeding 230,000 yuan [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for Xiaomi to replicate Tesla's profitability rhythm, with expectations for the automotive segment to turn profitable by 2025, and a projected net profit per vehicle exceeding 10,000 yuan [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][6] Core Views - Xiaomi Group achieved a record revenue of 365.9 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.0%. The adjusted net profit reached approximately 27.2 billion CNY, a 41.3% increase year-on-year [1] - The smartphone segment saw revenue of 191.8 billion CNY, growing by 21.8% year-on-year, while the IoT segment generated 104.1 billion CNY, up 30.0% year-on-year [2] - The automotive segment is projected to deliver 350,000 units in 2025, with the SU7 model delivering 136,854 units in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Xiaomi Group's total revenue was 365.9 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 35.0%. The adjusted net profit was 27.2 billion CNY, marking a 41.3% increase [1] - Revenue breakdown: Smartphones contributed 191.8 billion CNY, IoT contributed 104.1 billion CNY, and internet services contributed 34.1 billion CNY [2] Business Segments - Smartphones: Xiaomi holds the largest market share in the 4000-5000 CNY price range in China at 24.3% and ranks among the top three in smartphone shipments in 56 countries [2] - IoT: The IoT business achieved a revenue of 104.1 billion CNY with a gross margin of 20.3%, both reaching historical highs [2] - Automotive: The company aims to deliver 350,000 vehicles in 2025, with strong demand for the SU7 model and the upcoming YU7 SUV [3] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 452.3 billion CNY, 592.8 billion CNY, and 713.6 billion CNY, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 31%, and 20% [3] - Adjusted net profit for the core consumer electronics business is expected to grow to 36.2 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 8% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The performance certainty of Midea Group has been highlighted amidst fluctuating market sentiments, with the company achieving record high revenues and profits in 2024, alongside significant shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Midea Group reported a revenue of 409.1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit of 38.5 billion yuan, up 14.3%, both reaching historical highs [2][3]. - The company's gross margin improved from 25.5% to 26.2%, and net margin increased from 9% to 9.5%, attributed to high-end product strategies and supply chain optimization [3]. - Operating cash flow for the year remained robust at 60.5 billion yuan, marking a historical peak [3]. Shareholder Returns - Midea announced a cash dividend of 35 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 26.7 billion yuan, which is nearly 30% higher than the previous year, with a payout ratio of approximately 70% of net profit [4]. - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 5 to 10 billion yuan, with over 70% intended for cancellation, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder value [4]. Business Segments - The smart home segment generated 269.5 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 66.2% of total revenue, with a growth rate of 9.4% [3][7]. - The new energy and industrial technology segment saw the fastest growth, with revenue reaching 33.6 billion yuan, up 20.6% [3][8]. - B2B revenue surpassed 100 billion yuan for the first time, contributing 25.5% to total revenue, reflecting a significant increase from 18.5% in 2020 [8]. Strategic Moves - Midea has fully divested its holdings in Xiaomi, cashing out nearly 2 billion yuan, which reflects a strategic shift in response to increasing competition in the smart appliance sector [11][12]. - The company is focusing on a dual-driven strategy of "ToB + ToC" and enhancing its core business through increased R&D investment, which reached 16.2 billion yuan in 2024, up 11.31% [12][16]. Market Position - Midea has become the top global brand in smart home appliance sales in 2024, with significant market shares in various countries for its product lines [7][10]. - The company is leveraging its strong manufacturing capabilities and international partnerships to maintain high growth rates in exports [10]. Future Outlook - Midea's management emphasizes the need for "self-disruption" to face challenges, indicating a commitment to innovation and adaptation in a rapidly evolving market landscape [12][16]. - The company aims to continue its transformation from a traditional appliance manufacturer to a technology-driven enterprise, focusing on sustainable growth and competitive advantage [16][17].

小米集团董事长雷军、比亚迪董事长王传福、理想汽车董事长李想、小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏、蔚来董事长李斌等一众车圈大佬齐聚一堂，共话汽车产业未来。 雷军强调"技术为本"、"人车家全生态"战略；王传福宣称中国新能源汽车领先全球3-5年；李想分享了理想汽车操作系统开源的创新举措；何小鹏则布局飞行汽 车，预计2026年实现量产交付。 雷军：小米汽车来得正是时候 作为首次参加电动汽车百人会论坛的新面孔，雷军成为备受关注的焦点。长安汽车副总裁邓承浩调侃道："我们上一次热搜就像过年一样，但雷军基本天天过 年，有时候一天过几次年"。 2025中国电动汽车百人会论坛于3月28日-30日在北京钓鱼台国宾馆举行，本届论坛以"夯实电动化、推进智能化、实现高质量发展"为主题。 "技术为本，深耕底层技术，长期持续投入。"雷军在发言中表示，5年前小米决心5年投入1000亿元，财报显示实际投入达1050亿元，预计2025年研发投入将 超过300亿元，"只有海量投入才能真正把技术做好，把产品做好"。 针对外界对小米造车时机的质疑，雷军回应道："这是一个新能源汽车的时代，也是国产品牌全面崛起的时代。所有人都说小米造车晚了，今天看来可能是刚刚 好。正是 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi has achieved a remarkable milestone by delivering 200,000 vehicles in less than a year, showcasing the support from users and the maturity of the industry [3][5]. Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - Xiaomi's CEO Lei Jun expressed gratitude for the support from users and regulatory bodies, highlighting the collaborative effort within the industry that allowed Xiaomi to enter the automotive sector at an opportune time [3][5]. - The Xiaomi SU7 Ultra achieved over 10,000 orders within two hours of its launch, indicating strong market demand and early success in sales [5]. - Over the past five years, Xiaomi has invested approximately 105 billion yuan in research and development, with expectations to exceed 30 billion yuan in R&D spending this year [6][16]. Group 2: Financial Actions and Market Reactions - On March 25, Xiaomi announced a placement of 800 million shares to raise 425 million HKD, which is expected to improve its financial situation amid significant investments in its automotive business [7][15]. - The company's liquidity ratios, including a current ratio of 1.28 and a quick ratio of 0.93, are at their lowest since 2017, indicating concerns about short-term debt repayment capabilities [7]. - Historical data shows that after a previous share placement in December 2020, Xiaomi's stock price initially dropped by 7.1% but rebounded over 30% in the following three months, suggesting potential for recovery after the current placement [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Focus - The funds raised from the share placement will be directed towards business expansion, technology development, and market growth, particularly in smart electric vehicles, high-end smartphones, and AIoT ecosystems [15][17]. - Xiaomi's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 365.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 35%, and an adjusted net profit of 27.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 41.3% increase [15]. - The company aims to leverage AI technology across its product lines, targeting the automotive, mobile, and home appliance markets, with a long-term strategy focused on innovation and high-quality growth [17].

Mergers and Acquisitions - Quantum Song Group announced a merger investment cooperation with Letsvan, marking a significant entry into the trendy toy market and setting a record for financing in China's trendy toy industry in 2025 [3] - Letsvan will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Quantum Song, with its financial data included in the group's consolidated financial statements [3] Financing Activities - Xidian Tea completed a Series A financing round of 30 million yuan, led by Guan Feng Yong Yue, aimed at expanding its smart production base and upgrading its international raw material traceability system [4][5] - Huiyi Technology, an internet home decoration service platform, raised several million yuan in Series A financing, which will be used for product iteration and market expansion [6] Company Intelligence - BaWang Tea Ji submitted an IPO application to the SEC, reporting a GMV of 29.5 billion yuan for 2024, a 173% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.515 billion yuan, up 213.3% [7] - Shubao International, focusing on disposable hygiene products, went public with a share price of 0.51 HKD, raising approximately 86 million HKD [8] Market Trends - Cocoa prices have surged due to adverse weather and supply shortages, with Brazil aiming to establish the world's largest cocoa farm, expecting production to reach 300,000 tons by the end of the year [17] - The price of kale has increased from 0.8 yuan to 3.5 yuan per jin due to its popularity among tea brands, although experts warn about the nutritional claims of related products [22] Brand Developments - Lanvin clarified that its recent store closures in China are part of a strategic adjustment and that it will continue to invest in the Chinese market [11] - The second-hand market for luxury watches, including Rolex, has seen significant price drops, with some models losing nearly half their value [20]