Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing fluctuations after a period of growth, leading investors to question whether this is a signal of a market end or an opportunity for re-entry. Current market conditions suggest that the pullback may not be a terminal point but rather a wait for several key opportunities to become clearer [1] Group 1: Valuation and Market Position - Despite a previous rally that has repaired valuations, the Hong Kong stock market remains at historically low levels compared to major overseas technology indices. As of January 21, 2026, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hong Kong technology sector is significantly lower than that of the Nasdaq, indicating a medium to long-term safety margin and allocation value. The pullback may provide a more suitable entry point for investors [2] Group 2: AI and Technological Advancements - The recent advancements in the AI sector, particularly with domestic large model companies listing in Hong Kong, are providing sustained momentum for the technology sector. For instance, the "Qianwen App" achieved over 100 million monthly active users within two months of launch, and AI motion control technologies are generating significant interest overseas. This indicates that the commercialization of AI technology is accelerating, and while short-term market sentiment may fluctuate, the logic of value reassessment driven by AI remains unchanged [3] Group 3: Sectoral Support and Opportunities - Beyond AI, several industries within the Hong Kong market exhibit strong support: - New Consumption: Leading companies in trendy toys, tea drinks, and jewelry are expected to drive value reassessment due to explosive performance and emotional premium - Innovative Pharmaceuticals: Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies are accelerating their international expansion, with large orders expected to improve profitability - New Energy: Policies aimed at reducing competition are gradually being implemented, which may optimize the supply-demand landscape in the industry - Technology: The expansion of computing power demand and the acceleration of large model commercialization are creating abundant opportunities across the industry chain [4] Group 4: Signals to Watch - The current pullback in the Hong Kong stock market is, to some extent, waiting for the confirmation of the following signals: - AI application performance realization: Whether the technology can truly translate into corporate profits - Overseas liquidity and risk appetite: The willingness of global funds to allocate to emerging markets - Corporate earnings recovery rhythm: Particularly whether first-quarter earnings can support valuations [5] Group 5: Investor Strategy - For ordinary investors, it is advisable not to be overly pessimistic during the pullback. Gradual accumulation in the low valuation range may be beneficial. Additionally, a long-term perspective is essential, as the Hong Kong market is characterized by significant volatility, requiring patience to seize structural market opportunities [6]

Employment and Labor Market - In 2025, the new urban employment reached 12.67 million, with an average urban survey unemployment rate of 5.2%, indicating overall stability in the employment situation [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security plans to implement new employment policies for youth, including college graduates, and enhance recruitment activities [1] - Measures will be taken to support migrant workers and improve employment assistance for vulnerable groups, including veterans [1] Energy Sector - In 2025, 7,084 out of 7,480 key energy-consuming units passed energy measurement reviews, achieving a compliance rate of 94.71% [1] - The energy measurement reviews aim for full coverage of key energy-consuming units during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Financial Sector - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year is set at 3.0% and for five years or more at 3.5%, remaining unchanged for eight consecutive months [2] - The People's Bank of China indicates there is still room for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates [2] Consumer Finance - The implementation period for the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has been extended to the end of 2026, with a 1% annual subsidy rate for eligible consumption [4] - The policy now includes credit card installment payments as part of the support scope [4] Tourism Sector - The 2026 version of the team tourism contract template will be implemented nationwide starting March 31, 2026, focusing on enhancing service quality and consumer protection [5] Investment and Economic Development - A special guarantee plan for private investment totaling 500 billion yuan will be implemented over two years to support small and micro enterprises [6] - The plan aims to provide loan guarantees for various business activities, including equipment purchases and digital transformation [6] Pharmaceutical Sector - In 2025, the National Medical Products Administration approved 76 innovative drugs, with 30 of them successfully entering the national medical insurance directory, achieving a coverage rate of 70% for new drugs approved in the first half of the year [6] Fiscal Policy - In 2025, the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds reached 1.3 trillion yuan to support consumption and economic transformation [7] - The funds are allocated for consumer subsidies and to stimulate sales in related sectors, enhancing the quality of life for citizens [7] Regulatory Framework - The National Supervisory Commission will implement the "Regulations on the Disclosure of Supervisory Work Information" starting March 1, 2026, to enhance transparency in supervisory activities [8] Economic Strategy - The National Development and Reform Commission is developing plans to stabilize employment and increase residents' income, which are crucial for boosting domestic demand [8]

具体来看，CXO、创新药等概念集体下挫，晶泰控股、三生制药、微创机器人、药明合联、药明生 物、信达生物等领跌。 招商国际表示，在2025年创新药BD出海授权交易爆发式增长的基础上，2026年初已经有多个BD落地， 体现了中国创新药出海授权交易较高的景气度。 港股市场再度震荡调整，医药板块领跌，恒生生物科技指数跌超2%，聚焦创新药产业的恒生医药ETF （159892）、聚焦CXO+AI医疗的港股通医疗ETF（520510）均跌超2%。 ...

｜2026年1月26日 星期一｜ NO.1中信建投：景气投资占优 坚守"科技+资源品"双主线 中信建投证券研报认为，经济数据显示，工业生产延续韧性，与此同时出口保持较快增长，但消费、投 资等内需指标仍显疲软。从宏观背景来看，当前宏观环境与2020~2021年赛道投资高峰期有颇多相似之 处。宏观需求偏弱+流动性宽松的组合，具备结构性景气的赛道投资占优。科技方面，AI半导体/新能源 仍是当前的景气核心，与此同时新兴热点景气催化不断，AI应用政策强力支持、商业化落地加速，太 空光伏全球产能规划超预期、技术突破打开万亿市场，创新药BD交易、临床突破与新药获批推动价值 兑现。资源品方面，目前有色金属行业2025年报业绩预告向好率最高。 NO.2华泰证券：A股市场逐步切换向绩优方向 光大证券研报认为，春节前市场将会保持震荡，难以保持稳定的趋势，这主要与春节之前投资者交易热 度有所下行，以及微观流动性短期趋紧有关。从历史情况来看，春节前20个交易日，主要指数上涨概率 不足50%。预计春节之后市场将会迎来新一轮上行动力，春节后20个交易日主要指数上行概率与平均涨 幅均较高。因此建议投资者近期以稳为主，但仍应持股过节。行业方面 ...

Group 1 - The current macroeconomic environment is similar to the investment peak period of 2020-2021, with resilient industrial production and rapid export growth, while domestic consumption and investment indicators remain weak [1] - Monetary policy remains accommodative, with the central bank indicating room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year [1] - The combination of weak macro demand and loose liquidity favors structural investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like AI semiconductors and renewable energy, which are seen as core areas of growth [1] Group 2 - Emerging hotspots such as AI applications are receiving policy support and accelerating commercialization, while space photovoltaic capacity planning exceeds expectations, opening up a trillion-dollar market [1] - The non-ferrous metals industry has the highest forecasted performance improvement rate for 2025, indicating potential investment opportunities [1] - Under the current monetary easing, funds are expected to shift from the financial system to the real economy, benefiting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, machinery, and consumer goods sequentially [1] Group 3 - Since December 2025, the South China Metal Index has increased by 12.5%, while the energy and industrial product indices have risen by approximately 7%, indicating better investment value in the current market [1]

上周五指数尾盘震荡拉升，深成指探底回升，创业板指、深成指均涨超0.5%，北证50指数大涨超3%。 沪深两市成交额3.09万亿，较上一个交易日放量3935亿。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超3900只 个股上涨，其中121只个股涨停。从板块来看，光伏概念爆发，隆基绿能、钧达股份、协鑫集成、明阳 智能、拓日新能等30余股涨停。商业航天概念反复活跃，十余只成分股涨停，金风科技、润贝航科、西 部材料涨停。AI应用概念走高，浙文互联4天2板。贵金属概念延续强势，白银有色4连板，中国黄金、 豫光金铅涨停。医药商业概念表现活跃，益丰药房涨停。下跌方面，保险、银行板块跌幅居前。截至收 盘，沪指涨0.33%，深成指涨0.79%，创业板指涨0.63%。 在今日券商晨会上，中信建投认为，景气为纲，坚守"科技+资源品"双主线；东方财富认为，产业主题 与涨价链共舞下的春季行情；华泰证券认为，金价破五千、银价破一百的启示。 中信建投：景气为纲，坚守"科技+资源品"双主线 近两周市场资金面有所分化，宽基ETF资金流出超过5700亿元，而行业主题型ETF仍有1100亿元左右的 资金流入。总体来说，近期主动降温调控节奏，整体大基调仍然积极， ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The US economy shows strong internal momentum with a 0.3% month-on-month increase in personal consumption expenditures adjusted for inflation in November 2025, marking the highest growth rate since the second half of 2025 [2] - In Europe, inflation dropped below 2% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating easing pressure, supported by labor costs and year-end consumption [3] - Domestic economic growth in China for 2025 is expected to meet targets despite a slowdown in the fourth quarter, with net exports providing structural support in early 2026 [3] Fixed Income Research - The bond market continues to show signs of recovery, with mid- to long-term bonds performing well, driven by a strong equity market and manageable bank liability pressures [5][7] - The issuance of special bonds increased significantly, with a total of 56 bonds issued, amounting to 619.1 billion yuan during the reporting period [7] - The overall bond market is characterized by a recovery trend, with the yield on 7-year government bonds declining the most [7] Industry Research - Nine departments in China have issued opinions to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, indicating potential benefits for leading chain pharmacies and an expected operational turning point [10][12] - The SW pharmaceutical industry index shows a price-to-earnings ratio of 52.01, with a valuation premium of 266% relative to the CSI 300 index [11] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in innovative drugs, CXO, and upstream life sciences, while also monitoring segments like small nucleic acids [12]

羊城晚报讯 1月25日，省委副书记、省长孟凡利参加省政协十三届四次会议经济、科技、科协、教育、 特邀人士、农工党、工商联、无党派人士、民革、农业界别联组讨论会，与政协委员一道，围绕"增创 广东产业发展新优势，建设具有国际竞争力的现代化产业体系"主题进行深入交流，认真听取大家的意 见建议。 孟凡利指出，要深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于现代化产业体系建设的重要论述精神，按照积极推进智 能化绿色化融合化、加快提升完整性先进性安全性和锻造更为强大的国际竞争力的要求，打造强大的制 造能力、创造能力、交易能力、要素保障能力、资源整合能力和完善产业生态系统，建设具有广东特点 和广东优势、具有强大国际竞争力的现代化产业体系。要坚持实体经济为本、先进制造业为骨干，加快 形成强大的农林牧渔业产品的生产能力、工业品的制造能力以及衣食住行游购医养娱教等的服务能力。 要推动传统产业加快优化升级，培育更多新兴支柱产业，促进未来产业成形成势。要推动一二三次产业 协调融合发展，保持制造业较好的比重，推动制造业服务业融合发展。要推动科技创新和产业创新深度 融合，加快新技术新产品新业态新模式的广泛应用，培育和发展新质生产力。要加快构建现代化基础设 ...

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector experienced a significant surge in 2025, with multiple innovative drug ETFs seeing annual gains exceeding 50% and several companies doubling their stock prices. However, since September 2025, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in this sector have faced notable corrections, with some stocks nearly halving in value. The market is now focusing on the quality of business development (BD) transactions rather than just their existence [5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Trends and Reactions - In 2025, the innovative drug sector's market capitalization reached approximately 3 trillion yuan, driven by significant BD transactions [5]. - The market's initial enthusiasm for BD transactions has waned, as investors realize that these transactions often provide only temporary cash flow improvements rather than sustainable profitability [6][7]. - The focus has shifted from merely having BD transactions to assessing their quality, which is crucial for investment decisions in innovative drugs [8]. Group 2: High-Quality BD Transactions - High-quality BD transactions are characterized by three main anchors: the certainty of target value realization, the feasibility of milestone payments, and the strength of the partner company, particularly multinational pharmaceutical firms [10]. - An example of a successful BD transaction is the collaboration between Rongchang Biopharmaceutical and AbbVie, which led to a significant stock price increase due to the validated target of the drug involved [11][13]. - Conversely, a BD transaction involving Haikang Pharmaceutical and AirNexis did not yield positive market reactions due to the lower credibility of the partner and the insufficient cash component of the upfront payment [18][20][21]. Group 3: Company Performance and Investment Opportunities - Companies like Baijie and Hengrui have shown promising performance, with Baijie leading in innovative drug revenue and expected to turn profitable in 2025, while Hengrui has successfully transitioned to an innovative drug-focused business model [34][37]. - Hansoh Pharmaceutical has also achieved profitability, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from innovative drugs, indicating a successful transformation [40]. - Companies such as Xinda Biopharmaceutical and Sanofi have potential for future profitability, with Xinda expected to launch a promising product that could significantly impact its financials [43][48]. Group 4: Selection Criteria for Investment - The selection process for investment should involve identifying companies with a high proportion of innovative drug revenue (at least 50%), assessing their profitability, and evaluating the quality of their BD collaborations and global competitiveness of their pipelines [30][31]. - The analysis of the top 15 companies by innovative drug revenue shows that 13 have over 50% of their revenue from innovative drugs, highlighting a strong focus on innovation within the sector [32]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The innovative drug industry remains attractive, but the market's valuation criteria have evolved to prioritize the quality of BD transactions and the underlying performance of companies [58]. - Continuous monitoring of companies' clinical pipeline progress and BD transaction outcomes will be essential for assessing future market activity and investment potential [58].

Group 1 - The QDII funds have shown impressive performance since 2025, with an average net value increase of 27.9%, particularly driven by funds heavily invested in Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals [2] - Notable funds such as Huatai-PB Korea Semiconductor ETF and E Fund Global Growth Select Mixed A have seen net value increases of 127.55% and 102.91% respectively, with several other funds also exceeding 80% growth [2] - The top holdings of these high-performing funds predominantly include Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical stocks, with examples like Kelun-Botai Biotech and Innovent Biologics among the top five holdings of Huatai-PB Hong Kong Advantage Select Mixed A [2] Group 2 - The technology sector is also a key focus for many high-performing products, with E Fund Global Growth Select Mixed A holding major global tech stocks such as TSMC and Google-A among its top ten holdings [3] - Fund managers express optimism for the future of the innovative pharmaceutical and technology sectors, citing a recent phase of adjustment in the innovative drug industry as a temporary market sentiment issue rather than a fundamental change [4][5] - The innovative drug sector's valuation has become attractive, with expectations of upward potential, and the industry is anticipated to show resilience and technological attributes over the next 2 to 3 years [5] Group 3 - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to see positive changes in 2026, with contract development organizations (CXO) gaining confidence from solid data, and new technologies like artificial intelligence and brain-machine interfaces opening new application scenarios [5] - The semiconductor sector, particularly in storage, is projected to continue its cycle, with local market trends favoring leading storage manufacturers and potential IPOs supporting capacity expansion [6]