中信建投此前指出，百济神州泽布替尼持续放量，上调全年业绩指引。考虑到公司BTK海外放量超预 期，以及PD-1在欧盟、日本等其他国家上市放量，以及BCL-2、BTK CDAC、CDK4等重磅管线持续兑 现带来商业化进一步兑现，维持"买入"评级。 智通财经APP获悉，百济神州(06160)高开逾3%，截至发稿，涨3.53%，报223.2港元，成交额1196.27万 港元。 消息面上，11月17日，百济神州宣布III期HERIZON-GEA-01研究取得积极结果。该研究旨在评估在联 合化疗的基础上，HER2靶向双特异性抗体泽尼达妥单抗单药或联合PD-1抑制剂替雷利珠单抗作为 HER2阳性局部晚期或转移性胃食管腺癌（GEA，包括胃癌、胃食管结合部腺癌和食道癌）一线治疗的 有效性和安全性。 ...

Group 1: Macro Strategy - The current A-share market resembles the early stages of the 2020-2021 bull market, indicating a slow bull phase driven by strategic funds, similar to the role of foreign capital in early 2020 [1][11] - The market is expected to follow a structural "innovation bull" trend in 2026, as new funds and improved performance from domestic institutions emerge [1][11] - The macroeconomic environment in 2025 shows a mild recovery driven by policy support, with significant similarities to the early 2020 recovery phase [1][11] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - The bond market remains in a box range, with the central bank maintaining liquidity through reverse repos and net purchases of government bonds [2][12] - The introduction of new redemption fee regulations is anticipated to cause volatility in the bond market, but a cautious optimism is advised as the impact will be spread over time [2][12] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to continue a narrow range of fluctuations, with potential entry points if rates rise sharply due to new regulations [2][12] Group 3: Industry Insights - Aojie Technology is a rare domestic wireless communication baseband chip manufacturer, focusing on four main product categories, including baseband chips and ASICs [6][22] - The company is in a technology accumulation phase, with expectations of turning profitable as technology matures and product lines expand [6][22] - The market for cellular IoT is projected to enter a rapid expansion phase over the next six years, driven by advancements in 5G technology [6][22] Group 4: Company Performance - Baiji Shenzhou's core product, Zebutinib, is experiencing significant growth, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 revised upwards, indicating strong profit potential [7][9] - The company is expected to achieve rapid profit release in the coming years due to scale effects and improved cost management [7][9] - Baiji Shenzhou is positioned as a leading domestic innovative drug company, with a strong global commercialization capability [7][9]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.85% to 26,922.73 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.16%, and the National Enterprises Index up by 0.82% [2] Biopharmaceutical Sector - The biopharmaceutical stocks strengthened, with BeiGene rising over 7%. The company reported a total revenue of 27.595 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 44.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.139 billion yuan, driven by sales growth of self-developed products and authorized products [1][2] Oil Sector - Oil stocks led the gains, with PetroChina increasing nearly 3%. Geopolitical tensions in South America, particularly regarding Venezuela, may elevate risks in the region, which could support oil prices due to OPEC+ production adjustments [3][4] New Consumption Concept Stocks - New consumption concept stocks saw some increases, with "Hushang Aiyi" rising nearly 29%. The company announced a ten-year H-share incentive plan, aiming to incentivize core talent through restricted stock [4][5] Solar Energy Sector - Solar energy stocks weakened, with GCL-Poly Energy falling over 7%. There were rumors regarding significant changes in the photovoltaic industry, which the China Photovoltaic Industry Association has refuted, emphasizing the need for careful decision-making amidst misinformation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector is experiencing a rise, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like 3SBio and BeiGene, which has positively impacted the Hong Kong Innovative Drug Selected ETF [1] Company Performance - BeiGene reported a total revenue of 27.595 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 44.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.139 billion yuan, driven by sales growth from self-developed products and licensed products [1] - The company plans to submit a listing application in Japan for marginal zone lymphoma in the first half of 2026, with expectations of obtaining orphan drug designation [1] Market Trends - Despite recent adjustments in the innovative drug sector, there has been a counter-trend influx of funds, with a net inflow of 114 million yuan into the Hong Kong Innovative Drug Selected ETF over the past 20 days [1] - The ETF tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Selected Index, focusing on leading innovative drug companies and those with high R&D attributes, suitable for aggressive investment strategies [1] Industry Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, the sentiment in the innovative drug sector has recently declined, but the sustainability of the sector's prosperity remains intact due to ongoing business development [1] - The trend of "innovation + internationalization" in the innovative drug industry is expected to continue, with improved fundamentals observed in the industry chain [1] - Positive trends are noted in investment and financing data, orders, and performance metrics within the sector [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][7]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid global sales growth of its BTK inhibitor, Zebutinib, with significant advancements in its research pipeline across hematological malignancies, solid tumors, and autoimmune diseases [1][7]. - For Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of $1.412 billion, with product revenue reaching $1.395 billion, and a profit of $125 million [3][6]. - The company has updated its full-year revenue guidance for 2025 to $5.1-5.3 billion, with GAAP operating expenses projected at $4.1-4.3 billion [3][6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2025: 370.68 billion CNY - 2026: 445.36 billion CNY - 2027: 522.31 billion CNY - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.282 billion CNY in 2025, with a significant turnaround from a loss of 4.978 billion CNY in 2024 [5][7]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 84.4% in 2024 to 87.0% by 2027 [5][7]. Sales Performance - Zebutinib's global sales reached $1 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 50.8% year-over-year increase, with notable sales in the US, Europe, and China [6][7]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Zebutinib's global sales totaled $2.78 billion, reflecting a 53.2% year-over-year growth [6][7]. Research and Development Progress - The company has made significant progress in its R&D pipeline, including: - Completion of patient enrollment for the Phase 2 trial of the BCL2 inhibitor for R/R WM and FDA breakthrough therapy designation for R/R MCL [6][7]. - Advancements in solid tumor treatments and immune-inflammatory conditions, with several clinical trials underway [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - BeiGene has entered a harvest period after sustained high investment in R&D, with expectations of achieving profitability for the first time in 2025 [2][12]. Financial Performance - The company updated its revenue forecast for 2025, estimating revenue between RMB 36.2 billion and RMB 38.1 billion, an increase from the previous estimate of RMB 35.8 billion to RMB 38.1 billion [2][3]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, BeiGene reported revenue of RMB 27.595 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.139 billion, compared to a loss of RMB 3.687 billion in the same period last year [7][12]. - The company expects Q4 2025 revenue to be between RMB 8.605 billion and RMB 10.505 billion [7]. R&D Investment - From 2017 to 2025, BeiGene's cumulative R&D expenses reached RMB 77.066 billion, with a significant increase in annual spending [12]. - R&D expenses for the first half of 2025 were RMB 7.278 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [12]. - The company has consistently increased its R&D investment, with annual expenses rising from RMB 20.17 billion in 2017 to RMB 141.40 billion in 2024 [9][10][11]. Product Performance - BeiGene's product, Brukinsa (百悦泽), achieved global sales of RMB 7.423 billion in Q3 2025, a 51.0% increase year-on-year, maintaining its leading position in the global BTK inhibitor market [7][8]. - The product's success is attributed to strong demand across all indications and favorable net pricing [7]. - Another product, Tislelizumab (百泽安), generated sales of RMB 1.363 billion, a 16.6% increase, driven by new indications approved for reimbursement in China [8]. Market Position - BeiGene is recognized as a benchmark for innovative pharmaceutical companies in China and is evolving towards becoming a global multinational corporation [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for BeiGene, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark by more than 10% [16]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, BeiGene achieved revenue of USD 1.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.7% from USD 1.3 billion in Q2 2025. The U.S. market contributed USD 743 million, reflecting an 8.5% increase from the previous quarter. GAAP operating profit was USD 163 million, up 73.4% quarter-on-quarter [5][6]. - Management has updated its full-year guidance for 2025, projecting total revenue between USD 5.1 billion and USD 5.3 billion, with GAAP operating expenses expected to be between USD 4.1 billion and USD 4.3 billion [5][6]. Revenue Breakdown - Global revenue for Zanubrutinib reached USD 1.0 billion, representing a 51% year-on-year increase and a 5.3% quarter-on-quarter increase. In the U.S., revenue was USD 740 million, up 47% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter. European revenue was USD 160 million, a 68% year-on-year increase and an 8.7% quarter-on-quarter increase [2][6]. - Tislelizumab revenue in Q3 2025 was USD 190 million, reflecting a 17% year-on-year increase but a slight decline of 1.5% quarter-on-quarter [6]. Clinical Development Progress - Sonrotoclax (BCL2 inhibitor) received Breakthrough Therapy Designation for RR MCL, and patient enrollment for a potential registrational Phase 2 study in RR WM has been completed [7]. - BGB-16673 (BTK CDAC) has initiated a global Phase 3 trial against pirtobrutinib in R/R CLL, with patient enrollment currently underway [7]. - BGB-45035 (IRAK4 CDAC) has started a Phase 2 trial for moderate-to-severe rheumatoid arthritis, with patient enrollment initiated [7]. Expected R&D Milestones - BGB-43395 (CDK4 inhibitor) plans to initiate a Phase 3 trial in 1L HR+/HER2- breast cancer in H1 2026 [8]. - BGB-16673 (BTK CDAC) expects data readout in R/R CLL in H1 2026 to support an accelerated approval application [8]. - Sonrotoclax plans to initiate patient enrollment for a Phase 3 trial combining with BTK inhibitor versus acalabrutinib + venetoclax in H1 2026, and a Phase 3 trial in multiple myeloma in H2 2026 [8].

Core Viewpoint - BeiGene, a leading innovative pharmaceutical company in China, reported significant financial growth in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 27.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, and a net profit of 1.139 billion yuan, recovering from a loss of 368.7 million yuan in the same period last year [2][4]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the reporting period was 10,076.964 million yuan, reflecting a 41.1% increase compared to the same period last year [3]. - Product revenue amounted to 9,953.836 million yuan, up 40.6% year-on-year, contributing over 98% to total revenue [4]. - The company achieved a total profit of 746.452 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 688.812 million yuan [3]. Product Performance - The core growth drivers for BeiGene's performance were the sales of its BTK inhibitor, Brukinsa (Zebutinib), and the PD-1 monoclonal antibody, Tislelizumab [3][4]. - In Q3, Brukinsa generated global sales of 74.23 billion yuan, a 51.0% increase, accounting for over 70% of the company's product revenue [4]. - The U.S. remained the largest market for Brukinsa, with sales of 52.66 billion yuan, up 46.9%, while European sales surged by 68.2% to 11.65 billion yuan [4]. Market Outlook - The company has adjusted its 2025 revenue forecast, raising the expected range from 35.8 billion to 38.1 billion yuan to 36.2 billion to 38.1 billion yuan [4]. - Research and development expenses, along with sales and management costs, have been narrowed from 29.5 billion to 31.9 billion yuan to 29.5 billion to 30.9 billion yuan [4]. Pipeline Development - BeiGene is advancing its next-generation self-developed pipeline products globally, with the film-coated tablet formulation of Brukinsa approved by the European Commission [5]. - The company plans to submit a marketing application for Brukinsa for marginal zone lymphoma in Japan in the first half of 2026, aiming for orphan drug designation [5]. - The company has also initiated the first patient enrollment for the Phase III clinical trial of Tislelizumab for gastric cancer and submitted a marketing application in Japan [5].

百济神州作为中国创新药企的标杆，随着产品全球销售的推进，2025年将实现盈利，标志着公司从研发 投入期迈向商业化收获期。同时，随着新一代技术平台的产品兑现，ADC，PROTAC等众多新管线将进 入验证阶段，百济也将由血液瘤龙头向实体瘤和免疫领域拓展。我们认为，百济神州已进入到新的阶 段，正在向全球MNC进化。 免疫与炎症领域，IRAK4 CDAC在特应性皮炎和结节性痒疹的2期临床入组中，预计2025H2读出poc数 据。 公司进入稳定盈利阶段：25Q2公司的GAAP毛利率为87.4%，同比提升2.4个百分点。25Q2公司GAAP持 续盈利达0.94亿美金，经调整净利润为2.53亿美金，盈利能力显著增强。 盈利预测和投资建议：随着公司自研产品，如百悦泽和百泽安的新适应症持续获批，我们预计2025- 2027年公司的百悦泽的收入分别为279.6、356.0、416.8亿元，同比分别增长49%、27%、17%。百泽安 的收入分别为7.5、8.8、10.2亿美元（53.0、62.6、72.6亿元），同比分别增长20%、18%、16%。2026年 我们预计BCL2抑制剂获批上市。公司未来合作收入存在不确定性，我们假设该 ...

Core Insights - BeiGene's stock price surged by 8.28% to 324.85 CNY per share, with a market capitalization exceeding 500 billion CNY, establishing its position as the market leader in the A-share pharmaceutical sector [1] - The company's first profitable interim report revealed total revenue of 17.518 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 46.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 450 million CNY, marking a turnaround from four consecutive years of interim losses [1][2] - The strong performance is primarily driven by BeiGene's core product, Brukinsa (Zebutinib), which achieved global sales of 12.527 billion CNY, a 56.2% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from the U.S. market [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, the U.S. market accounted for 51.8% of total revenue, growing by 53.7%, while the European market generated 1.939 billion CNY with a growth rate of 79.7% [2] - The domestic market's revenue growth slowed to 24.75%, but still generated 6.019 billion CNY, reflecting a solid foundation in the local market [2] Financial Performance Trends - From 2021 to 2024, BeiGene's interim revenue increased from 4.891 billion CNY to 11.996 billion CNY, with net profit remaining in the red until 2025, when the company achieved its first interim profit [2] - Cumulatively, revenue from 2022 to 2024 rose by 184.5%, from 9.566 billion CNY to 27.214 billion CNY, with the first half of 2025 already achieving 64.4% of the total revenue target for 2024 [2] Adjusted Performance Forecast - BeiGene adjusted its revenue forecast for 2025, now estimating a range of 35.8 billion CNY to 38.1 billion CNY, with an expected gross margin improvement due to better product mix and production efficiency [3]