2025 年 05 月 27 日 工业硅：盘面大幅下跌，关注供应变化 多晶硅：月差走阔，逢高布空为主 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Si2507收盘价（元/吨） Si2507成交量（手） | 7,610 | -305 | -520 | -1,250 | | | | 276,011 | -8,144 | 66,503 | 91,936 | | | Si2507持仓量（手） | 206,212 | 27,828 | 51,174 | 126,083 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2507收盘价（元/吨） | 34,885 | -1,205 | -2,265 | - | | | PS2507成交量（手） | 158,450 | -10,772 | 85,464 | - | | | PS2507持仓量（手） | 78,351 | 3,922 | 49,663 | ...

Financial Performance - The company's total assets increased by 150% to RMB 3123637 million as of December 31, 2023[6] - Net assets increased by 42% to RMB 843541 million[6] - Revenue from continuing operations increased by 78% to RMB 258865 million[6] - Profit attributable to owners of the company increased by 105% to RMB 96377 million[6] - Fully diluted EPS increased by 155% to 1139 cents[6] - The company's share of profits attributable to equity holders reached RMB 964 million in 2023, with a 5-year compound growth rate of 124%[7] Operational Performance - Newly added installed capacity in 2023 was 512 MW, with an attributable installed capacity of 4050 MW by year end[18] - Attributable power generation increased by 172% to 7824 GWh[14] - Weighted average utilization hours for wind (attributable installed) were 2449 hours, a decrease of 37%[22] - Weighted average utilization hours for solar PV (attributable installed) were 1455 hours, a decrease of 59%[22] - The curtailment rate for wind (attributable installed) was 37%, an increase of 11 percentage points[22] - The curtailment rate for solar PV (attributable installed) was 59%, an increase of 21 percentage points[22] Green Energy Initiatives - Trading volume of green electricity increased by 117%[30] - Sale revenue of green certificates increased by 78% to RMB 4546 million[31] - Green electricity revenue additionally increased by 135% to RMB 3075 million[32] Installed Capacity Composition - Subsidiary-owned wind capacity is 2701 MW, representing 667% of the total attributable installed capacity[19] - Subsidiary-owned solar PV capacity is 576 MW, representing 142% of the total attributable installed capacity[19] - JV&Asso capacity is 773 MW, representing 191% of the total attributable installed capacity[19]

申万宏源：新疆电力供需发展空间广阔 金十数据5月26日讯，申万宏源发布研报称，"十五五"期间，风光装机规模快速成长，叠加火电机组装 机仍有增长空间，预计十五五末期新疆年发电量有望达9000亿千瓦时，其中风光发电量有望达3700亿千 瓦时，新能源发电占比有望超过40%。随着疆内产业园区发展及外省产能迁入，"十五五"期间新疆用电 量预计将保持高单位数或双位数增速。同时随着疆电外送通道的建成投产，至2030年新疆外年送电规模 有望达2400亿千瓦时，较2024年底接近翻倍。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that from January to April, the newly installed capacity for wind and solar energy reached 125GW, emphasizing the value of flexible adjustment resources in thermal power [10][3] - As of the end of April, the total installed power generation capacity in the country was 3.49 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [10] - The report suggests focusing on the value of flexible adjustment resources due to the rapid growth of new energy installations, which is expected to accelerate in the first half of the year [10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - In April, the total electricity consumption increased by 4.7%, with the first industry growing by 13.8%, the second industry by 3.0%, and the third industry by 9.0% [10] - The report notes that the overall electricity demand from the second industry is weak, affecting the overall growth rate, while the first and third industries show resilience [10] Power Generation Data - In April, the total power generation increased by 0.9%, with significant growth in wind and solar power generation [10] - The report indicates that thermal power generation decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, while nuclear power increased by 12.4%, wind power by 12.7%, and solar power by 16.7% [10] Key Stocks - The report recommends focusing on key thermal power stocks such as Huadian International, Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Jiantou Energy, as well as leading thermal power renovation equipment companies like Qingda Environmental Protection [3][7] - It also suggests prioritizing undervalued green power sectors, particularly in Hong Kong, and recommends stocks like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [3][7] Market Performance - The report notes that during the week of May 19-23, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,348.37 points, down 0.57%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 3,882.27 points, down 0.18% [56] - The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 2,925.81 points, up 0.45%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.62 percentage points [56]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 25 年 月 日 电力设备 1-4 月国内光伏装机同增 75%，金龙羽签订无人机固态电池订单 光伏：1-4 月国内光伏新增装机 104.93GW，同比增长 75%。根据国家能源局 发布的 1-4 月份全国电力工业统计数据。今年 1-4 月，国内新增光伏装机 104.93GW，同比增长 75%。单 4 月新增光伏装机 45.22GW，同比增长 215%。 在抢装背景下，行业需求在前四月大幅增长。当下行业抢装减弱，产业链价格回 调。关注后续产业链产能控制情况。整体供给侧减产积极，关注后续价格修企稳时 机。核心关注两大方向：1）供给侧偏刚性、后续需求复苏后价格弹性更大的硅料 和玻璃，核心关注协鑫科技、通威股份、福莱特等。2）新技术背景下带来的中长 期成长性机会，核心关注爱旭股份、聚和材料等。 风电&电网：红海湾六海上风电启动 500KV 海缆招标，丹麦政府重启海上风电补 贴，预期 2025 年秋季启动 3GW 招标。5 月 21 日，深圳能源电子招标投标平台 发布《深能汕尾红海湾六海上风电项目 500kV 海底电缆供货及敷设采购项目招标 公告》。 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - The company's market value is expected to exceed 20 billion in 2025, with a focus on improving management to enhance market value [2] - In 2024, the company reported a significant loss, with a negative income of -5.375 billion, primarily due to internal transaction offsets of -6.757 billion [11] - The company aims to achieve profitability in 2024 and has outlined measures to improve profitability, including increasing power generation and optimizing coal supply channels [4][29] Group 2: Related Party Transactions - The 6.757 billion in related party transactions primarily involves internal transactions between subsidiaries, including fuel sales and maintenance services [6] - The company has confirmed that all related party transactions have followed necessary review procedures and disclosure obligations [2] Group 3: Operational Strategies - The company plans to increase R&D investment in 2025 to enhance the flexibility and safety of coal power generation [9] - Strategies to improve operational efficiency include optimizing coal supply channels, reducing procurement costs, and expanding the thermal market [7][29] Group 4: Investor Relations and Communication - The company has committed to improving communication with investors and will hold performance briefings after quarterly reports [37] - There is a recognition of the need to enhance investor confidence through transparent communication and effective management practices [4][36] Group 5: Market Conditions and Challenges - The company faces challenges due to fluctuating performance, with periods of significant losses and minimal profits [4] - The management acknowledges the need to adapt to market conditions, including coal price fluctuations and electricity demand [7]

Group 1: Financial Performance and Asset Evaluation - The acquisition of 30% stake in Nengtou Wind Power by Chuaneng Power resulted in a net asset evaluation increase from 14.5 billion to 65 billion, a staggering 349% growth [2] - The evaluation of 53 billion net assets for Yalong River Hydropower was only assessed at 68 billion, reflecting a mere 28% increase [2] - In 2024, the on-grid electricity price for wind power dropped from 0.54 yuan to 0.47 yuan, despite a 600 million kWh increase in wind power generation compared to 2023 [3] Group 2: Inventory and Cost Management - As of the end of 2024, lithium concentrate inventory reached 34,000 tons, leading to a provision for inventory depreciation of 170 million yuan [4] - The management's decision-making regarding the sale of lithium concentrate has been questioned, with implications of potential losses due to mismanagement [4] Group 3: Market Strategy and Future Plans - The company plans to enhance its competitive edge by focusing on the synergy between renewable energy generation and lithium battery businesses [6] - In 2025, the company aims to expedite the construction of wind and solar projects with a total installed capacity of 1.77 million kW [5] - The company will continue to monitor market conditions and adjust its strategies accordingly to optimize operational efficiency and profitability [5] Group 4: Shareholder Relations and Market Management - The company has implemented measures to return value to shareholders, including a cash dividend of 295 million yuan in 2024 and plans for further dividends in 2025 [10] - Despite the challenges posed by the US-China tariff war, the company has not engaged in significant share buybacks, contrasting with other local firms [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing consultation on the detailed rules of Document No. 136 in Guangdong, which sets a cap on the incremental mechanism electricity volume at 90%. Different types of renewable energy will be auctioned separately, with the first auction scheduled for mid-2025 [4]. - China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved Huadian New Energy's IPO application, aiming to raise 18 billion yuan for renewable energy projects [4]. - The report tracks key industry data, including a 3% year-on-year decrease in electricity purchase prices in May 2025, a 2.5% increase in total electricity consumption in the first quarter of 2025, and a 0.3% decrease in total power generation during the same period [4][39][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW utility index increased by 0.08% from May 12 to May 16, 2025, with notable gains in solar and hydropower sectors [9]. - The top-performing stocks included Jingyuntong (+34.3%) and Hongtong Gas (+22.0%), while the worst performers were Mindong Power (-7.0%) and Huadian Energy (-7.8%) [10]. 2. Electricity Sector Tracking 2.1. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption in Q1 2025 reached 2.38 trillion kWh, a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with growth in all sectors [14]. 2.2. Power Generation - Total power generation in Q1 2025 was 2.27 trillion kWh, down 0.3% year-on-year, with declines in thermal power and increases in hydropower, nuclear, wind, and solar [22]. 2.3. Electricity Prices - The average electricity purchase price in May 2025 was 394 yuan/MWh, a 3% decrease year-on-year [39]. 2.4. Thermal Power - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 614 yuan/ton, down 28.6% year-on-year [43]. 2.5. Hydropower - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was normal, with inflow and outflow decreasing by 21.3% and 27.6% year-on-year, respectively [51]. 2.6. Nuclear Power - In 2024, 11 nuclear units were approved, indicating a positive growth trajectory for the sector [22]. 2.7. Green Energy - The report emphasizes the recovery of asset quality in green energy, with a focus on companies like Longjing Environmental Protection [4]. 3. Important Announcements - The report includes significant announcements regarding the approval of IPOs and regulatory changes affecting the utility sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing consultation regarding the detailed implementation of Document No. 136 in Guangdong, which includes a bidding mechanism for new energy projects with a maximum electricity scale of 90% [4]. - China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved Huadian New Energy's IPO application, aiming to raise 18 billion yuan for renewable energy projects [4]. - The report tracks key industry data, including a 3% year-on-year decrease in electricity purchase prices and a 2.5% increase in total electricity consumption in the first quarter of 2025 [4][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW utility index increased by 0.08% from May 12 to May 16, 2025, with notable performances in solar and hydropower sectors [9]. - The top five gainers included Jingyuntong (+34.3%) and Hongtong Gas (+22.0%), while the biggest losers were Mindong Power (-7.0%) and Huadian Energy (-7.8%) [10]. 2. Electricity Sector Tracking 2.1. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption in Q1 2025 reached 2.38 trillion kWh, a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with growth in all sectors [14]. 2.2. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation in Q1 2025 was 2.27 trillion kWh, down 0.3% year-on-year, with declines in thermal power generation [22]. 2.3. Electricity Prices - The average electricity purchase price in May 2025 was 394 yuan/MWh, down 3% year-on-year [39]. 2.4. Thermal Power - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 614 yuan/ton, down 28.6% year-on-year [43]. 2.5. Hydropower - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 156.81 meters, with inflow and outflow rates down 21.3% and 27.6% year-on-year, respectively [51]. 2.6. Nuclear Power - In 2024, 11 nuclear units were approved, indicating a positive growth trajectory for the sector [22]. 2.7. Green Energy - Wind and solar power installations saw a year-on-year increase of 30.5% and a decrease of 5.7%, respectively, in Q1 2025 [4]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on investment opportunities in hydropower and thermal power during peak summer demand [4]. - Recommended stocks include Jiangsu Power, Huadian International, and China Nuclear Power [4].

Core Viewpoint - Jiuzhou Group is focusing on the smart distribution network and network energy sectors, positioning itself as a leading provider of new power and energy infrastructure, with a dual-engine business model combining renewable energy and smart equipment manufacturing [1][2]. Group 1: Business Overview - Jiuzhou Group has established three main business segments: smart equipment manufacturing, renewable energy generation, and comprehensive smart energy [1]. - The company has a significant global presence, with products covering over 70 countries and regions, and has a strong integration advantage across the supply chain [1]. - As of December 2024, Jiuzhou Group will have a cumulative installed capacity of over 2.7 GW in renewable energy power stations, with an additional 1 GW in projects under construction and over 2 GW in development [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The management views enhancing the performance of the smart equipment manufacturing segment as a key focus for future growth, aiming to improve capacity utilization and gross margins through scale effects [2]. - A new sales team targeting large clients is being established in Beijing, with plans for an overseas sales team starting in Q3 2024 [2]. - Jiuzhou Group is leveraging partnerships within the energy sector to expand its equipment sales market and drive growth in the transmission and distribution equipment business [2]. Group 3: Market Performance - The order value for the smart distribution network business exceeded 800 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of over 30% [3]. - The company has achieved a historical high in bid amounts, exceeding 260 million yuan in Q1 2025 [3]. - Jiuzhou Group's wind power assets reached an installed capacity of 246 MW by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 100 MW, while solar power assets remained stable at 298.6 MW [3]. Group 4: Project Development - Jiuzhou Group is engaging in equity cooperation for wind and solar power projects with state-owned enterprises, with plans to sell 100% equity of newly connected projects to realize resource and equipment value [4]. - The expected internal rate of return for the decentralized wind + clean energy heating projects is over 10%, benefiting from the advantages of decentralized wind power and decreasing construction costs [4]. Group 5: Market Potential - The potential market for decentralized wind + clean energy heating in Northeast China is substantial, with nearly 300 county-level administrative units and over 3,000 towns [5]. - Jiuzhou Group aims to optimize and adjust its business model based on operational results after launching its first project in Heilongjiang Province, with plans to replicate this model across Northeast and North China [5].