Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading global cross-border payment service provider, uniquely holding the VATP license, and is expected to stand out in the wave of stablecoins disrupting the global cross-border payment landscape [1] - Stablecoins are rapidly reshaping the global cross-border payment system, driven by legislative advancements in the US and initiatives in China to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi [2][3] Summary by Sections Exceeding Expectations - Stablecoins are transforming the global cross-border payment system at an unprecedented speed and scale [2] - In the US, the new leadership is accelerating stablecoin legislation, prompting various stakeholders to expedite their involvement in stablecoin initiatives [2] - China aims to enhance the international influence of the Renminbi, with stablecoin implementation in cross-border payments being a key strategy [2] - Globally, countries are adopting diverse approaches to advance stablecoin payment scenarios, particularly in developing regions [2] Catalysts - The potential acceleration of the US "Genius Act" could enhance the development of USD stablecoins [3] - The Hong Kong stablecoin legislation is set to be implemented on August 1, with the first licenses expected to be issued within the year [3] - The increasing scale of Real World Assets (RWA) in Greater China is anticipated to drive demand for stablecoins [3] - The company's market capitalization has significantly increased, meeting the threshold for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which may enhance its prospects [3] Price Performance Analysis - Since coverage began at the end of May, the company's stock price has increased by 77% [4] - The current stock price reflects only part of the expectations, as the stablecoin market is broad and lacks clear core beneficiaries [4] - The company may benefit from increased capital inflows if it enters the Hong Kong Stock Connect [4] - As the thematic market matures, focus will shift to fundamental performance and actual realization, concentrating funds on core beneficiaries [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Without considering the incremental contribution from stablecoins, the company's revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 30% from 2024 to 2027, with profit acceleration expected in 2026-2027 [5] - The current price corresponds to a PS ratio of 7.7x for this year and 5.7x for 2026, while global stablecoin-related companies are valued between 10-15x [5] - The target market capitalization is estimated at HK$23.6 billion, with a target price of HK$21.85, indicating a potential upside of 75.4% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid transformation of the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the rise of cryptocurrencies and the explosive growth of stablecoins, which pose structural challenges to the Chinese yuan and highlight the need for cautious responses from China [1][2]. Group 1: Stablecoin Market Dynamics - The total market capitalization of global stablecoins has exceeded $260 billion, a 12-fold increase from $20 billion in 2020 [2][7]. - The dominance of USD stablecoins is significant, accounting for over 85% of the market, reinforcing the USD's position as the global reserve currency [2][7]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has emphasized that stablecoins will enhance the global reach of the USD and increase demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, which are key reserve assets supporting stablecoins [2][7]. Group 2: China's Response to Stablecoins - The Shanghai Municipal State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has signaled a shift towards a more open attitude regarding digital currencies, contrasting with previous strict regulations against virtual currency trading [3][9]. - There is a notable divergence in opinions among experts regarding the development path of the Chinese yuan stablecoin, with some advocating for an open and proactive approach while others suggest a more cautious "offshore first" strategy [4][12]. - The potential for a yuan stablecoin to stimulate demand for the yuan is highlighted, especially given the high internal and external flow of stablecoins in the Asia-Pacific region [10]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The U.S. has initiated federal-level legislation for stablecoins, while Hong Kong's stablecoin regulations are set to take effect, indicating a global race surrounding stablecoin frameworks [5][6]. - The upcoming stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong will require stablecoins to be backed by 100% of the same currency's high-quality reserve assets, laying a legal foundation for offshore yuan stablecoins [13]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities for Yuan Stablecoin - The lack of liquidity in the offshore yuan market is a significant challenge, with current offshore yuan deposits and products only slightly above one trillion [14]. - Experts suggest that increasing the issuance of yuan government bonds in offshore markets and enhancing hedging products could improve the liquidity and usage of the yuan [14]. - The unique advantages of a yuan stablecoin include leveraging China's manufacturing leadership to integrate into global trade and payment systems, potentially reducing the dominance of the USD [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a positive outlook for relative returns in the industry [3][23]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from the transition of the A-share market from a stock market to an incremental market, with trading activity increasing significantly. As of July 22, 2025, the trading volume reached 1.93 trillion yuan, marking a 11.7% increase from the previous trading day [3][6]. - The forecasted net profit growth for the first half of 2025 for 29 brokerages is centered around 75.02%, with a notable 20.66% growth expected in the second quarter of 2025 [3][13]. - The report highlights the potential for brokerages to benefit from the upcoming regulatory changes regarding stablecoins and virtual asset licenses, which could open new revenue streams [7][12]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The report notes that the brokerage sector has seen a significant performance gap between H-shares and A-shares, with H-shares increasing by 73.9% compared to a mere 22.0% for A-shares, indicating a potential for A-shares to catch up [7][16]. - The report identifies a shift in investor strategy from trading to holding, suggesting a more sustainable growth trajectory for the brokerage sector [7][12]. Performance Forecast - The top five brokerages by net profit forecast for 1H25 are: Guotai Junan (156.2 billion yuan, 212% growth), China Galaxy (65.82 billion yuan, 50% growth), and others, indicating strong performance across the sector [6][13]. - The report emphasizes that the brokerage sector is likely to attract more incremental capital as market sentiment shifts, particularly with the implementation of policies aimed at enhancing the quality of public funds [7][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading brokerages such as Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and financial technology leaders like Dongfang Wealth, which are expected to benefit from increased market activity [7][12]. - The report also notes that the current valuation of H-shares remains attractive compared to A-shares, with an average price-to-book ratio of 1.0 for H-shares versus 1.5 for A-shares [7][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the brokerage sector [2] Core Viewpoints - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from the transition of the A-share market from a stock market to an incremental market, with trading activity increasing and overall market valuations rising [5][6] - The forecasted net profit growth for the brokerage firms in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 75.02%, with significant contributions from leading firms [5][8] - The report highlights the potential for brokers to benefit from stablecoin developments and virtual asset license upgrades, which could create new growth opportunities [5] - There is a notable price discrepancy between A-shares and H-shares of brokerage firms, indicating potential for A-shares to catch up [5][9] - The report suggests that the current market environment is conducive for investing in underperforming brokerage stocks, with a focus on leading firms and fintech companies [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the brokerage sector is 83, with a total market value of 76,326.04 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 73,589.02 billion yuan [2] Market Dynamics - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with a transaction amount of 1.93 trillion yuan on July 22, 2025, marking an 11.7% increase from the previous trading day [5] - The financing balance in the market reached 1.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a 0.8% increase, while the financing purchase balance increased by 7.6% [5] Performance Forecast - The report indicates that 29 brokerage firms have forecasted a net profit growth of 75.02% for the first half of 2025, with the second quarter showing a 20.66% year-on-year growth [5][8] - The top five firms by net profit growth include Huaxi Securities (1189.5%), Guolian Minsheng (1183.0%), and Guosheng Jinkong (315.5%) [5][8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading brokerage firms such as Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and Orient Securities, as well as fintech leaders like Dongfang Wealth and Zhinancun [5]

7月23日，香港金管局总裁余伟文再次发文给稳定币降温。 此外，余伟文还非常关注泡沫化趋势。近期随着稳定币概念的热炒，市场出现了过度亢奋的情绪，一些 上市公司，不管本业与稳定币或者数码资产是否相关，只要宣称有意开拓稳定币业务即"点石成金"，股 价即应声上涨，股票交易量大增之余，公司知名度亦得以大幅提升。 余伟文强调，在开始阶段充其量只会批出数个稳定币牌照，失望者不在少数。而即使取得牌照，基于稳 步发展的考虑，加上初期所需要的资源投入，对公司短期盈利的贡献会有一定的不确定性，希望投资者 在消化市场"利好"消息时保持冷静和独立思考。 同时，余伟文还提醒，最近已经出现了借推销数码资产和稳定币进行的诈骗行径，令民众蒙受损失。 《稳定币条例》8月1日生效，按照条例规定，自生效日起，向香港公众宣传推广任何无牌稳定币均属违 法。他希望市民提高警觉，以免误堕法网。 在文中，余伟文多次强调将加强监管来防范《稳定币条例》生效后可能带来的金融风险。 据余伟文透露，近期各国央行和金融监管当局更大的关注点在于如何避免稳定币被不法分子利用作洗钱 工具，特别是在跨境使用的场景中。国际清算银行在最新的年度经济报告中，就用了不少篇幅强调防范 稳 ...

7月23日，香港金管局总裁余伟文再次发文给稳定币降温。 余伟文表示，已经有数十家机构主动接触金管局团队表达对稳定币牌照的兴趣，但初期只会发放数个稳定币牌 照。余伟文还强调，争取在7月底正式发布《稳定币条例》下的监管和反洗钱两份指引，而金管局将于下周公 布"稳定币发行人发牌制度"的摘要说明，文件会阐述金管局接受和处理牌照申请的安排。 在文中，余伟文表示，稳定币作为新兴的支付工具，并通过监管而逐渐进入传统金融体系，有积极的意义，公 众对它的功能和发展前景感兴趣并有所期待非常正常。但他认为，近期市场和舆论的过度炒作值得关注。 一是过度概念化。余伟文认为，当前围绕稳定币的讨论容易集中于其对传统金融特别是支付体系的颠覆作用， 但是一旦要由虚入实，从概念和理论层面转到应用场景和具体安排，就出现明显落差。他以香港的经验为例， 至今已经有数十家机构主动接触金管局团队，有的明确表示有意申请稳定币牌照，有的属于初步探路性质。总 结这些接触发现，很多只停留在概念阶段，如提出要提升跨境支付效率、支持Web3.0发展、提升外汇市场效 率等愿景，但缺乏实际的应用场景，无法提出切实可行的具体方案和落实计划，更遑论具备管控风险的意识和 能力 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that stablecoins have gained significant attention in various sectors, including personal investment, financial markets, and government regulation, especially with the introduction of the "Genius Act" and increased involvement from major tech companies [1] Group 2 - Stablecoins are not fiat currencies but are issued by private entities, with examples including USDC by Circle and USDT by Tether, and they are primarily traded on private platforms [2] - Stablecoins are pegged to assets like the US dollar, ensuring that 1 stablecoin equals 1 dollar, with reserves backing their issuance, as mandated by the "Genius Act" [2] - The market for stablecoins is highly concentrated, with 99% pegged to the US dollar or dollar assets, and USDT and USDC accounting for approximately 90% of the over $240 billion market cap of stablecoins [2] Group 3 - The US government supports dollar-pegged stablecoins to reinforce the dollar's position as a global payment and reserve currency, especially as its dominance has been challenged [3] - The "Genius Act" allows US debt to be used as reserves for dollar stablecoins, potentially increasing their scale and attractiveness amid rising US federal debt exceeding $36 trillion [3] - The US aims to lead in financial innovation through stablecoins, preventing other countries from establishing new financial orders [3] Group 4 - The support for stablecoins by the US has caused turbulence in global financial markets, with increasing participation from various institutions and companies in issuing stablecoins [4] - Concerns arise regarding the potential for stablecoins to facilitate money laundering and cross-border crime, posing challenges for monetary authorities in managing exchange rates and capital flows [4] - The future status of the dollar as a key currency will depend on the US's economic strength and the international acceptability of its policies, rather than solely on innovations in financial tools [4]

新华财经香港7月23日电 香港金融管理局总裁余伟文23日发文表示，稳定币作为新兴支付工具通过监管 逐渐进入传统金融体系，具有积极意义，但有必要防范市场和舆论过度炒作，严防金融风险。 余伟文认为，围绕稳定币的讨论容易集中于其对传统金融特别是支付体系的颠覆作用，但是一旦要由虚 入实，从概念和理论层面转到应用场景和具体安排，就会出现明显落差。参与稳定币可以有多种模式， 他建议，对于一些机构而言，较实际的做法可以是与其他稳定币发行机构合作，提供应用场景，而非追 求作为发行主体。 此外，更值得关注的是泡沫化趋势。余伟文强调，近期随着稳定币概念的热炒，市场出现了过度亢奋的 情绪。而金管局早前已明确表明，在初期阶段充其量只会批出数个稳定币牌照。而即使取得牌照，基于 其希望稳步发展的考虑，加上初期所需要的资源投入，对公司短期盈利的贡献会有一定的不确定性，希 望投资者在消化市场"利好"消息时保持冷静和独立思考。 据悉，香港金管局将于下周公布"稳定币发行人发牌制度"的摘要说明，文件会阐述金管局接受和处理牌 照申请的安排。 （文章来源：新华财经） 稳定币是近期各国央行和金融监管当局讨论较多的课题。余伟文指出，讨论的焦点集中在稳定币 ...

他表示，稳定币作为新兴的支付工具，并通过监管而逐渐进入传统金融体系，有积极的意义，公众对它的功能 和发展前景感兴趣并有所期待，正常不过。但是有必要防范市场和舆论过度炒作，最近有一些现象值得关注。 他表示，总结这些接触的经验，很多只停留在概念阶段，如提出要提升跨境支付效率、支持Web3.0发展、提 升外汇市场效率等愿景，但缺乏实际的应用场景，无法提出切实可行的具体方案和落实计划，更遑论具备管控 风险的意识和能力。一部分能提供应用场景的，机构本身却缺乏发行稳定币的技术和管控各类金融风险的经验 和能力。参与稳定币可以有多种模式，对于这类机构而言，较实际的做法似乎是与其他稳定币发行机构合作， 提供应用场景，而非追求作为发行主体。 他还表示，当局早前已明确表明，在初阶段充其量只会批出数个稳定币牌照，换言之，失望者不在少数。而即 使取得牌照，基于当局希望稳步发展的考虑，加上初期所需要的资源投入，对公司短期盈利的贡献会有一定的 不确定性，希望投资者在消化市场"利好"消息时保持冷静和独立思考。 刚刚，早盘放飞的券商午后突然走弱！ 7月23日上午，两地券商股集体大涨。港股方面，中州证券一度大涨超17%，国联民生一度大涨超10% ...

Group 1: Core Strategies and Developments - JD.com is actively participating in the competitive landscape of food delivery, while also investing in stablecoins and artificial intelligence projects [2][3] - The company aims to apply for stablecoin licenses in major currency countries to reduce cross-border payment costs by 90% and improve efficiency to within 10 seconds [2][8] - JD.com has made significant investments in leading companies in the embodied intelligence sector, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing its supply chain and industry chain capabilities [2][4] Group 2: New Business Models - The launch of "Seven Fresh Kitchen" represents JD.com's innovative approach to the food delivery market, positioning it as a quality restaurant production platform [3][6] - JD.com is not merely entering the traditional food delivery space but is exploring a new business model that integrates various stakeholders in the food industry [7][10] - The company is actively recruiting culinary partners to co-develop dishes, showcasing a collaborative approach to business [3][6] Group 3: Integration of Technology and Operations - JD.com emphasizes the integration of digital and physical economies, aiming to find effective ways to merge with the real economy [5][6] - The company is leveraging its supply chain advantages to apply embodied intelligence across various operational scenarios, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [9][10] - JD.com has established a dedicated "Intelligent Robotics Business" department to promote the sale of robotic products across multiple platforms [8][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - JD.com's recent activities reflect a strategic intent to adapt to the evolving market landscape and enhance its operational capabilities [4][10] - The company's focus on new technologies and business models is seen as a pathway to finding new growth opportunities [7][10] - JD.com is positioning itself to remain competitive in the internet industry by continuously refining its strategies and operations [10]