智通财经8月13日讯（编辑 冯轶）受美联储降息预期升温及板块业绩等因素催化，港股黄金股短线再度走强。 截至发稿，今日紫金矿业(02899.HK)、灵宝黄金(03330.HK)双双涨超3%，且均刷新历史高点，招金矿业(01818.HK)等个股也跟涨。 另一方面，随着年内金价持续走高，市场对黄金股的中期业绩表现也颇为期待。 据媒体报道，不少黄金行业上市企业近期频繁获机构调研。从机构调研的内容看，未来黄金产量、黄金产能扩张计划、公司成本变化等，是机构普遍关心的 问题。 早前，灵宝黄金、潼关黄金等港股黄金股就相继发布盈喜预告。其中，灵宝黄金预计中期净利润约6.56亿元至6.87亿元，同比增加约 330%-350%；潼关黄金上半年预盈3.3亿港元-3.6亿港元，同比增长259%-291%。 国金期货近日发布的研究也分析称，市场聚焦美联储9月降息，黄金可能会提前反应。后续或围绕着特朗普加征关税和美联储降息两个核心事件展开博弈。 此外，早前央行发布数据显示，中国7月末黄金储备报7396万盎司，环比增加6万盎司，为连续第9个月增持黄金。 开源证券表示，"降息交易"和"特朗普2.0"双主线将在2025年持续催化，贸易保护主义和 ...

美国中西部钢铁厂因加拿大报复性关税被迫停产，超市里一双普通运动鞋价格飙涨40%。 美国工厂的倒闭潮从汽车业蔓延开来。通用汽车将8亿美元的关税 成本转嫁给消费者，销量暴跌导致俄亥俄州工厂裁员2000人；重型机械巨头卡特彼勒直接关停伊利诺伊州的百年老厂，将生产线迁往印尼。 德国精密机床 困在海关导致底特律汽车厂停产，日本零件商将越南产能紧急转向泰国。 美国对印度购买俄油追加25%的"二级关税"，让印度出口商总税率飙升至75%，穆 迪报告显示，这场关税风暴可能导致印度经济增长率跌破6%。更令人担忧的是，美国海关仓库里，仿制药缺货警报已响彻三天，而印度供应着全美65%的 仿制药。 科技封锁的反噬也开始显现。 特朗普宣布对半导体征收100%关税后，苹果连夜承诺追加千亿美元在美投资，但台积电亚利桑那工厂的成本比台湾高出6 倍，最终导致iPhone价格上涨23%。 宾夕法尼亚大学的模型显示，每保护一个钢铁岗位，会导致其他行业流失五个就业机会。 特朗普的"对等关税"清单，如同精准的屠刀，狠狠地切割着全球贸易版图。 巴西和印度首当其冲，大豆、咖啡、医药和纺织品面临高达50%的关税，印度珠 宝商90亿美元的年出口额瞬间化为泡影。 ...

Core Insights - Ireland's economy, once reliant on low GDP, has transformed into a major player in the pharmaceutical sector, becoming the largest exporter of medical products in the EU, with a significant dependency on the US market for exports [1][2][3] Economic Growth and Dependency - Ireland's GDP per capita has surpassed traditional economic powers like France and Germany, earning the nickname "Celtic Tiger" due to its strong growth driven by globalization and an export-oriented economy [1] - In 2024, Ireland's total goods export is projected to reach nearly €224 billion, with medical and pharmaceutical products accounting for €99.9 billion, nearly 45% of total exports [2] - The US is the largest market for Irish exports, with over €72 billion in goods exported, of which €58 billion are pharmaceutical products, representing approximately 60% of total exports to the US [2] Foreign Direct Investment - Ireland has attracted a cumulative foreign direct investment of €1.3 trillion, equivalent to 255% of its GDP, significantly higher than the EU average [2] - US investments account for €897 billion, making up 69% of total foreign direct investment in Ireland, highlighting the critical nature of the US market for Ireland's economy [2] Trade Vulnerability - The Irish economy is highly sensitive to changes in US trade policy, with potential tariffs posing a significant risk to its export-driven model [2][3] - The Irish government and industry express concerns that proposed high tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals could severely impact the economy, with predictions of a 1.5% contraction in economic activity over five years and the loss of 56,000 to 70,000 jobs [3] Market Reactions - In anticipation of potential tariffs, Irish pharmaceutical exports to the US surged in early 2023, with March exports reaching €23.6 billion, a 243.3% increase year-on-year [3] - There are fears that this spike in exports may lead to a sharp decline once tariffs are implemented, resulting in a significant drop in export volumes [3] Economic Fluctuations - Ireland's economy experienced significant fluctuations, with a 1% decline in GDP in Q2 2023, contrasting sharply with a 7.4% growth in Q1 2023, indicating the volatility introduced by external trade pressures [4] - The current geopolitical climate necessitates a reevaluation of Ireland's reliance on the US market, as the country faces challenges in maintaining its growth trajectory amid rising protectionism [4]

印度这边也不示弱，外交部声明美国对印度加征关税不公平、不公正、不合理，印度肯定会采取一切必 要行动维护国家利益。印度一直坚持保护本国粮食和乳制品行业，这也是美印贸易谈判的关键分歧点。 现在印度国内虽然有声音说要对美让步，但莫迪这次态度也挺坚决，向美方传递了愿意捍卫本国相关产 业利益，甚至承担个人后果的信息。 咱们再把目光放远一点，这 11 国联手反美，背后其实有着更深层次的原因。美国长期以来凭借美元霸 权，在全球贸易和金融体系中为所欲为。金砖国家早就看不顺眼了，一直在推动去美元化进程。还有巴 西和印度签协议用本币买药，南非和俄罗斯用兰特结算石油等等，都是在减少对美元的依赖。这次美国 的关税霸凌，更是加速了金砖国家团结起来对抗美国霸权的步伐。 说到这，咱们中国在其中扮演着非常重要的角色。胁迫和施压对中国没用。而且中国也一直在行动上支 持其他国家。比如说巴西咖啡被美国加税卖不动，中国驻巴使馆马上允许近 200 家巴西咖啡公司产品出 口到中国。 最近国际形势那叫一个风起云涌，11 国联手反美，这事儿可太劲爆了！尤其是在莫迪计划访华之前， 巴西 80 岁的总统卢拉果断下令，直接把矛头对准了美国，这背后到底有着怎样的故 ...

Core Argument - The article argues that Trump's tariff policy, while seemingly beneficial in the short term, ultimately sows the seeds of America's decline in global hegemony, leading to a loss of trust among allies and a strengthening of adversaries [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Allies - Trump's tariff policy has resulted in a complete breakdown of trust among allies, with countries like the EU and Japan feeling betrayed and seeking more reliable partnerships, such as with China [10]. - The once steadfast allies are now distancing themselves from the U.S., which has led to a significant erosion of loyalty and trust [3][10]. - The actions taken by the Trump administration have pushed allies towards alternative alliances, marking a shift in global cooperation dynamics [10]. Group 2: Response from Adversaries - In response to U.S. trade policies, BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and others) are uniting to form a counterforce against American hegemony, indicating a profound shift in the global power structure [3][5]. - Brazilian President Lula's strong stance against U.S. tariffs exemplifies the growing resistance among emerging markets, as they seek to challenge U.S. dominance [3][5]. Group 3: Historical Parallels - The article draws parallels between Trump's tariff policies and Argentina's protectionist measures under President Perón, which initially appeared successful but ultimately led to economic decline [12]. - Historical lessons suggest that isolationism and protectionism can accelerate decline, as seen in the case of Argentina, which serves as a cautionary tale for current U.S. policies [4][12].

Group 1 - China's economy grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, while the US GDP growth was only 1.25%, highlighting a significant disparity in economic performance [1][3][5] - The International Monetary Fund's data indicates that China's manufacturing and consumption are stable, contrasting with the US's slowing consumer spending and investment [3][5] - The Chinese market is described as the fastest-growing increment area globally, reflecting confidence in its economic trajectory [3][5] Group 2 - The US's tariff policy, which has led to an average tariff rate of 18.3%, has resulted in increased costs for American households, with an additional annual burden of $2,400 [5][7][10] - The tariffs are seen as a modern version of harmful economic policies, ultimately transferring costs to consumers and leading to inflationary pressures [7][10][11] - The US's trade surplus with China stands at $586 billion, overshadowing the $50 billion in tariff revenue, indicating a misalignment in trade benefits [5][9] Group 3 - The US's trade protectionism has prompted countries to seek new partnerships, diminishing its influence in global trade [15][17] - China's strategic response to the trade war includes diversifying its export markets and reducing reliance on the US, which has shown positive results in trade data [17][21] - Historical parallels are drawn between current US policies and past protectionist measures that led to economic downturns, suggesting a potential repeat of history [19][21] Group 4 - The "Belt and Road" initiative by China is gaining traction, contrasting with the US's approach, and is seen as a model of cooperative economic development [21][23] - The article emphasizes that cooperation and win-win strategies are essential for sustainable economic growth, while confrontation leads to mutual losses [21][23]

Group 1: U.S. Trade Policy and Misjudgments - The Trump administration's decision to impose tariffs on Chinese goods was based on the belief that China would quickly capitulate due to its reliance on the U.S. market, with exports to the U.S. accounting for 19% of China's total exports [3][8] - The initial tariff rate was raised from 34% to 84%, affecting over $300 billion in goods, which was framed as a key step to make America great again [3][5] - The U.S. underestimated China's economic resilience and the interconnectedness of global supply chains, leading to significant miscalculations in the trade war [7][10] Group 2: China's Economic Response - China's countermeasures included imposing equivalent tariffs on U.S. goods, which highlighted the flaws in the U.S. strategy and resulted in increased costs for American consumers [5][18] - The Chinese economy demonstrated strong resilience, with a 9.7% year-on-year growth in high-tech manufacturing and a 45.4% increase in new energy vehicle production in Q1 2025 [8][18] - China's strategic responses targeted key U.S. industries, such as agriculture and automotive, effectively pressuring U.S. companies to advocate for negotiations [15][19] Group 3: Global Economic Impact - The trade war led to job losses in the U.S., with approximately 180,000 jobs lost in the first half of 2025, predominantly in manufacturing [21] - The U.S. trade deficit actually widened to $120 billion in the first half of 2025, indicating that tariffs did not achieve their intended effect [24] - Internationally, the U.S. faced backlash, with allies like the EU imposing retaliatory tariffs, and countries like India accelerating trade talks with China [22][24] Group 4: Long-term Strategic Shifts - China's focus on reducing dependency on U.S. markets and enhancing its domestic consumption was evident, with retail sales surpassing 12 trillion yuan in Q1 2025 [18] - The establishment of trade agreements with ASEAN and advancements in technology, such as the production of 7nm chips by Huawei, showcased China's strategic pivot [17][18] - The trade war underscored a shift in global economic dynamics, where the U.S. could no longer dictate terms without considering the resilience and adaptability of other nations [26]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Trump regarding the consideration of additional tariffs on Chinese goods has raised significant concerns about the future of US-China trade relations [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Negotiations - Previous US-China economic talks had shown promise, with Trump initially expressing approval and hinting at a visit to China to further bilateral trade relations [3]. - However, Trump's subsequent demands for unreasonable conditions have escalated tensions, reversing the previously improving atmosphere of negotiations [3]. - The US's unilateral adjustments to tariff rates in the Japan-US trade agreement highlight a pattern of unpredictability in trade agreements, which may affect future negotiations with China [3]. Group 2: Impact of Tariff Threats - Trump's proposed tariffs would significantly disrupt the ongoing US-China trade talks, leading to increased costs for Chinese exporters and higher prices for American consumers [5]. - The interconnectedness of global supply chains means that escalating trade tensions could have far-reaching consequences, potentially destabilizing global trade and affecting economic recovery [5][7]. - The potential for economic friction to spill over into other areas of bilateral relations adds complexity to the US-China relationship [5]. Group 3: Global Economic Context - The rise of trade protectionism poses challenges to the global economy, and while competition exists between the US and China, there remains substantial room for cooperation on global issues [7]. - The US's tariff threats are seen as unilateral actions that contradict the principles of economic globalization, which emphasizes interdependence among nations [7]. - Stability in US-China trade relations is crucial not only for the two countries but also for the global economy, necessitating rational dialogue and cooperation to foster a healthier trade environment [7].

虽然英美两国近期达成一项新的贸易协议，但业内人士普遍认为，这难以从根本上缓解英国汽车制 造业面临的外部压力。根据协议，每年从英国出口到美国的前10万辆汽车将按照10%的额外关税税率征 税，超过部分则按25%的额外关税税率征税。 "与原先相比，这仍是一种倒退。"贝利指出，仅捷豹路虎一家企业的出口量就可能超过10万辆的上 限。 新华社伦敦7月9日电 新闻分析｜产量持续下降折射英国汽车产业困局 新华社记者赵家淞 赵小娜 英国汽车制造商与贸易商协会日前发布的数据显示，5月英国汽车总产量同比大幅下降32.8%至 49810辆，创下自1949年以来除2020年疫情年份外的同期最低水平。分析人士指出，受美国加征关税、 全球产业链动荡与投资信心不足等多重因素影响，英国汽车制造业正滑向数十年来的发展低谷。 数据显示，英国汽车总产量已经连续5个月下滑。今年前5个月，英国汽车总产量约为34.82万辆， 同比下降12.9%，为1953年以来同期最低水平。 英国伯明翰大学经济学教授戴维·贝利表示，英国汽车业正陷入"低产能危机"，工厂普遍生产不饱 和、成本高企，全球竞争力持续下滑。"（全球）汽车产业正被迫重塑结构，英国在其中的位置正变得 ...

Core Points - The ongoing economic and geopolitical rivalry between the US and China has created significant uncertainty in the global economy, affecting ordinary citizens with high prices and economic instability [1] - The trade conflict is rooted in long-standing tensions that escalated after the Trump administration adopted a comprehensive strategy to pressure China, starting from January 2025 [2] - The US has implemented a series of tariffs and trade restrictions on Chinese goods, significantly increasing the total tariff level and impacting Chinese exports [2] - In response to US actions, China has enacted strong countermeasures, including export bans on critical materials and increased tariffs on US goods, which have disrupted US supply chains [6][10] - The trade war has led to a rise in effective tariff rates in the US, reaching the highest level since 1934, and has resulted in market volatility and negative employment data [12] Trade Policies - The US imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports in March 2025, which escalated to a total tariff level of 54% by April 2025, affecting various sectors from agriculture to electronics [2] - The US further increased tariffs on Chinese goods to 104% and initiated investigations into Chinese maritime logistics and shipbuilding, targeting key industries [2] - China's countermeasures included banning exports of gallium, germanium, and other critical materials to the US, which are essential for various advanced technologies [6] Geopolitical Dynamics - The US has sought to strengthen alliances in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China's influence, criticizing China's actions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea [5] - Despite tensions, there remains potential for cooperation between the US and China in areas such as climate change and technology exchange, depending on the US's approach [14] Economic Impact - The trade war has resulted in an additional tax burden of approximately $1,300 per American household due to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [2] - The escalation of tariffs has led to increased costs for US consumers and businesses, contributing to economic instability and market downturns [12]