在国际政治经济舞台上，美国的一举一动都备受瞩目。近期，美国在经贸、国内政治与社会、国际事务等多方面呈现出一系列新动向，这些动向不仅深刻影 响着美国自身的发展轨迹，也对全球格局产生着重要的外溢效应。 经贸领域：关税调整与经济政策博弈 中美经贸关系的微妙变化 近期，中美经贸关系成为全球焦点。5 月 10 日，两国代表在瑞士日内瓦重启关税谈判，这一谈判被外界视为 "全球贸易秩序分水岭"。美方抛出 "将关税从 145% 降至 80%" 的方案，然而附加条件却直指中国核心利益，包括全面开放市场、解除稀土出口管制、强化芬太尼管控等。这种 "降关税当恩赐，换实质 主权让步" 的逻辑，被美国智库彼得森研究所直言 "荒谬"。从数据来看，即便美方将关税降至 80%，中国光伏、机械、纺织等行业的综合成本仍将高出国际 均价 37%，而美国对华出口的半导体设备、大豆等商品却要求零关税准入 ，这种 "单行道" 式要价难以撼动中方立场。 在谈判前，美国还接连与英国、印度达成贸易协议。英国以消除市场壁垒、扩大进口美国农产品为代价，换取维持 10% 的基础关税；印度则承诺对 90% 美 国商品实施低关税，将两国平均关税差从 13% 压缩至 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce is considering imposing additional tariffs on imported aircraft and parts, following similar measures on automobiles and ships, which could significantly impact the aviation supply chain and related industries [1][2][14]. Group 1: Import and Export Data - In 2024, the U.S. is projected to import aircraft worth $62.1 billion and export aircraft worth $123.6 billion, indicating a substantial trade balance in favor of exports [4]. - Boeing primarily exports aircraft globally but relies on imported parts and materials, highlighting the interconnectedness of the supply chain [4][10]. Group 2: Impact on Aircraft Manufacturers - The potential tariffs could affect two main categories: aircraft imported from Europe and parts supplied globally to Boeing [5]. - Airbus, despite being a competitor, has a significant market presence in the U.S., with models like the A320 and A321 series being popular due to their operational efficiency [6][7]. Group 3: Supply Chain Implications - A single aircraft consists of approximately 3 million parts, and imposing a "plane tax" could disrupt Boeing's global supply chain, particularly affecting Japanese suppliers [8]. - Japanese manufacturers play a crucial role in Boeing's production, with significant contributions to models like the 787, where Japanese firms account for 35% of the production [9]. Group 4: Broader Economic Impact - The automotive industry in Japan, already affected by U.S. tariffs on cars, could face further challenges if tariffs extend to aircraft, potentially harming both Japanese and U.S. industries [15]. - The U.S. has also announced additional fees for ships, indicating a broader trend of increasing tariffs across various sectors, which could further strain international trade relationships [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The tariff exemption greatly exceeded market expectations, and the tariff trading is capricious, with the consensus expectation likely to reverse. Equities have odds, while bonds require caution. A robust trading framework should be established to guide investments in the year of tariffs. The impact of tariffs on the bond market should also be closely monitored [5][12]. Summary by Directory 1. How to Analyze the So - called "Reciprocal Tariffs"? - The most common analogy is to compare the "reciprocal tariffs" to the continuation of the 2018 China - US trade war, which affects the risk appetite of equity assets and the counter - cyclical adjustment mechanism. The intuitive "fast thinking" is that increased tariffs lead to reduced exports, affecting GDP and shifting the interest rate center downward [13]. - However, "comparing to 2018" is a view mainly held by A - share investors. The US economic and investment circles emphasize the 1930s Smoot - Hawley Tariff Act, but its reference value is questionable. The current trade war is a cyclical change in US trade policy, and tariffs are also a political movement to some extent [15][16]. - The market's previous over - pessimistic pricing and the current view that tariffs have quickly failed may oversimplify the complexity of the political impact of tariffs [20]. 2. The Cyclical Perspective of US Trade Policy - Since its establishment, the US federal government has been closely related to tariffs, with the initial goals of maintaining fiscal balance and protecting manufacturing. Economic and industrial changes lead to changes in tariff policies under the political cycle [7][21]. - Tariff policy is a policy that emphasizes regions rather than parties. Trade concept changes often play an important role in the six party realignments in US history [23]. - The current differences in the Trump administration are normal in US democratic politics and do not necessarily mean the failure of the tariff bill. In 2025, few technology companies, ordinary consumers, or manufacturing unions support the current radical tariff bill [26]. 3. The Economic Results of Trade Policy: Doubtful and Unimportant - The economic impact of trade policy can be understood from two aspects: its impact on the economy determines the direction and magnitude of the market, and its feedback on trade policy affects the market rhythm. The economic results of tariffs, both positive and negative, are doubtful [32]. - Historical evidence shows that trade protection policies have limited effects on enhancing industrial competitiveness and may have negative impacts on consumers and the overall economy [37]. 4. How to Set up a Robust and Investment - Guiding Trading Framework in the Year of Tariffs? - Step 1: Set a baseline for the possible final outcome of tariffs by reviewing the historical cyclical tariff policies of the US. - Step 2: Make qualitative predictions, such as the dollar appreciation ratio, the intervention rhythm of administrative departments and Congress, the frequency of opposition cases or lawsuits, and the counter - impact of public opinion and asset prices on tariff policy intensity. - Step 3: Conduct long - short trading if the implied expectation of short - term market fluctuations exceeds the set baseline, and adjust the baseline expectation if new developments deviate from the assumptions [39]. 5. Back to the Domestic Bond Market: Pay Attention to the Technical Attenuation of Tariff Factors - Since March, the bond market has experienced "oversold rebound → trading tariff factors → correction of tariff factors". In May, the bond market is likely to return to the main logic of March, and the reasons behind the "liability shortage" may not have simply ended [7][41][42].

我们理解，良好的开端展示了双方沟通的诚意，关税从 145%的非 理性水平降至目前相对理性水平，这应是双方正常经贸合作的基本， 或是中美经贸谈判的开始，后续谈判或将进入实质性环节。考虑美国 特朗普政府过往的一贯行事风格，后续谈判或存在反复的可能。从美 国特朗普竞选主张，以及美国特朗普政府相关官员的发言，美国特朗 普政府对我国的贸易政策并非基于对等关税政策，而是典型的贸易保 护主义，美国特朗普政府一再扬言，要取消中国最惠国待遇。年初特 朗普团队提名国务卿公布的法案，宣称取消中国最惠国待遇。仅从本 次中美经贸会谈结果来看，在 90 天的豁免期内，美国对我国加征关 税税率已经达到 51%，高于最惠国待遇的平均关税税率；若 90 天的豁 免期结束后，美国继续加征 24%的关税，那么美国对我国商品加征的 平均关税税率则高达 75%。整体来看，目前中美双方或进入实质性谈 判阶段，后续或仍存在谈判空间，最惠国待遇的平均关税税率或是双 方谈判的关键分水岭。考虑美国特朗普政府过往的一贯行事风格，后 续谈判或存在反复的可能，值得关注。 证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 E ...

这边关税战还没消停，台湾问题又被美国拿出来做文章。特朗普政府最近释放出"弃台"信号。美国债务 危机越来越严重，特朗普着急给经济止损，就想拿"弃台"当筹码，让中方减免债务。美国财长贝森特甚 至提议，用"弃台"换中国大陆免去部分美债。其实早在2015年，奥巴马当总统时，就有人提出过类似想 法。现在旧事重提，也暴露了美国一直把台湾当成战略棋子的真实想法。 美国（资料图） 据中国青年报报道，外交部发言人郭嘉昆重申，对美国关税战，中方不愿打也不怕打。这番表态背后， 是中美贸易博弈与台海局势交织的复杂局面。 2025年3月，美国突然在全球推行"对等关税"，对中国关税税率飙升至145%。美国想靠这招实现"贸易 再平衡"，巩固自己在全球贸易的老大地位。可现实狠狠打了美国一巴掌。美国国债早就超过36万亿， 每年光还利息就得花1.1万亿。财政一年收入才4.9万亿美元，支出却高达6.75万亿，债务每年以1.8 - 2.7 万亿美元的速度增加。 特朗普（资料图） 加征关税这招不仅没达到目的，反而把美国经济拖进泥潭。美国金融市场股、债、汇全下跌，农业、高 科技、汽车这些产业，供应链出问题，产品也卖不动。国内老百姓怨声载道，连英国、日本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of trade cooperation and the detrimental effects of protectionism on global economic collaboration, asserting that mutual benefits and open cooperation are essential for economic prosperity [1][2][5]. Trade Dynamics - The article critiques the prevailing notion in the U.S. that trade deficits equate to losses, arguing that imports enhance national welfare and that halting imports would lead to higher costs for consumers [2][3]. - It highlights that the U.S. trade deficit is primarily driven by its domestic economic model characterized by low savings, high consumption, and high debt, necessitating imports to fill the investment gap [3]. China’s Trade Strategy - China is expanding its diverse and balanced trade partnerships, with significant growth in trade with the EU and ASEAN, indicating a shift towards a more resilient trade structure [4]. - The article notes that China's trade with ASEAN reached 1.71 trillion yuan, a 7.1% increase, and trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries grew by 2.2% [4]. Economic Integration - The integration of domestic and international trade is advancing, with 87,000 industrial enterprises achieving integrated operations, reflecting a 6.3% growth [4]. - The article mentions that over 2,200 enterprises are leading in this integrated approach, enhancing the synergy between international and domestic markets [4]. Future Outlook - The article concludes that China's ongoing participation in global technological revolutions and industrial transformations will bolster its economic development, countering narratives of economic collapse [5].

上周，在几轮你来我往的试探后，欧盟宣布将对美国加征关税实施反制措施，并向世界贸易组织提起诉 讼。美国一些人挑起的这场贸易争端不仅令两大经济体利益产生直接碰撞，更折射出全球经济在贸易保 护主义冲击下面临的深层次矛盾。从美国极限施压到欧盟决定反制，中间还掺杂着英国"另辟蹊径"式的 对美妥协，欧美贸易争端在复杂局面下或陷入拉锯战。 美国则持续通过极限施压与分化瓦解的策略交替对欧盟施压。一方面，美国关税目前覆盖了欧盟对美商 品贸易的70%，在美国对药品、半导体和其他产品进行进一步调查后，这一比例可能会上升到97%，美 国仍在通过持续制造经济压力迫使欧盟让步；另一方面，美国也试图通过各个击破方式瓦解欧盟，如拉 拢意大利等成员国，利用德法在汽车产业、农业补贴上的分歧制造内部裂痕。5月8日，美国甚至在诸多 细节尚未敲定、此前加征的10%所谓"对等关税"也未取消的情况下，迫不及待地宣布"美国与英国达成 一项新的贸易协议，部分撤回特定领域的关税，进一步扩大双方产品的市场准入"。这套美式"大棒加胡 萝卜"组合拳，本质上是在将经贸问题政治化，将双边谈判转化为更加复杂的地缘博弈，好方便一些人 浑水摸鱼。 欧盟和美国之间存在不少短期内 ...

正如专家所言，虽然这一次会谈的结果值得庆祝，但双边关系中的诸多不确定性仍需谨慎对待。中方明确表示，如果美方继续采取"言行不一"的策 略，甚至企图通过谈判来谋求利益，中方绝不会答应。在这样的博弈中，上述的"强硬"态度恰恰是中方维权的重要手段。 最近，中美之间的贸易谈判再次成为关注的焦点。刚刚闭幕的日内瓦经贸会谈，似乎为这两大经济体的关系带来了久违的曙光。令人意外的是，在曾 经剑拔弩张的局势中，中美双方竟然能达成诸多共识，这给全球市场注入了一剂强心针。 众所周知，在特朗普政府再次入主白宫以来，美方怀着"美国优先"的理念，加大了对中国商品的关税。这不仅加剧了两国间的紧张关系，也让全球经 济感受到阵阵寒风。在这样的背景下，日前在瑞士日内瓦举行的经贸会谈可谓是一次迫切而必要的外交尝试。 5月10日至11日的会谈成功超出了许多人的预期。双方表现出前所未有的坦诚和务实，特别是在关税问题上取得了实质性的进展。中方代表何立峰指 出，双方应当本着解决问题的务实态度进行深入磋商，以推进双边经济关系的健康发展。这一表态不仅展现了中方希望结束"关税战"的决心，也反映 了其对于持续合作的期待。 5月12日下午，中美各自发布日内瓦经贸会谈 ...

今年2月莫迪去美国谈贸易翻倍，特朗普还答应卖F-35战机给印度，这种装备连美国盟友都未必能轻易拿到。印度是金砖国家成员，但这次行为明 显跟中国提议的"共同对抗美国霸凌"对着干。中国外长在巴西开会时还强调要维护多边贸易，结果印度直接单干。之前金砖要扩员，印度就怕自 己话语权被稀释，偷偷反对拖慢进度，现在又跟美国跑这么快。印度人自己好像也闹矛盾。印度去年军费全球前三，买的都是美国和法国装备。 美国副总统万斯前段时间，访问印度希望能尽快达成关税协议。 据环球网报道，金砖国家外长会晤近日在巴西里约热内卢结束。巴西外长维埃拉在会后举行的记者会上说，与会外长们就反对全球"关税战"达成 共识，坚决反对贸易保护主义维埃拉说："我们坚决反对贸易保护主义死灰复燃以及以环境为借口采取的一些非关税措施。我们认为世界贸易组织 改革对解决贸易争端至关重要。"会晤发表主席声明说，外长们严重关切违反世贸组织规则的、不公正的单边保护主义行径，包括滥施对等关税。 莫迪与普京（资料图） 巴西作为轮值主席国发布声明，未直接点名美国。但在座的基本都是这次特朗普关税战的见证者，到底说谁，大家也一清二楚。然而，俄罗斯当 年的短视，为了阻碍中国掌控金砖组织 ...

欧洲理事会前主席、比利时前首相、中欧国际工商学院特聘教授夏尔·米歇尔（Charles Michel）表示， 当前世界正处于一个关键十字路口，面临着贸易保护主义、大数据与人工智能带来的机遇与风险、国家 主权与安全等诸多挑战。他表示，欧盟的战略自主是唯一前进道路，也是必然出路。米歇尔强调了自由 贸易对欧盟走向成功的重要性，并指出市场是展开良性经济竞争的基础。欧盟"多元一体"的格言与中 国"和而不同"的理念使双方互为理想的合作伙伴，在应对气候变化、促进经济发展、维护世界和平与安 全以及帮助发展中国家等关键领域，双方具有巨大的合作潜力。米歇尔表示，希望中欧双方能从过往经 验中汲取智慧，并对未来双方关系发展提出了两点建议：一是欧盟与中国的关系应当基于自身特点来考 量，不受其他第三方的影响；二是必须以负责任的态度，秉持尊重、透明和真诚的原则管控双方的分歧 与差异，以增进相互理解。 中国商务部原部长陈德铭发表题为"中欧战略合作行稳致远"的演讲。他表示，50年来，中欧已成为内生 互补、互利共赢的合作伙伴。双方相互尊重，坚持基于规则的多边主义，为中欧关系持续健康稳定发展 注入新动力。然而，当今世界充满了不确定性，如全球化治理严 ...