Core Viewpoint - The return of inflation is one of the macro themes in China for 2026, driven by three main factors: the marginal demand for commodities like copper due to artificial intelligence, the decline of the US dollar index since 2025 enhancing the financial properties of commodities, and resource populism increasing global investor concerns about commodity supply [1][2]. Group 1: PPI Trends and Influences - Insufficient domestic demand is the primary drag on PPI from 2022 to 2025, with real estate investment being the decisive factor contributing over 60% to the decline [3][4]. - The PPI's low performance and the divergence between nominal GDP and real GDP highlight the negative impact of price declines on economic perception, with PPI being negative for 39 consecutive months by the end of 2025 [3][4]. - The contribution of various factors to PPI changes shows that demand factors, particularly in real estate, have the most significant impact, while supply and oil price factors contribute less [4][10]. Group 2: Industry Contributions to PPI - Since 2022, key industries such as oil and coal processing, chemical manufacturing, and non-ferrous metallurgy have significantly increased their contribution to PPI, shifting the pricing power from traditional real estate to energy, resources, and high-end manufacturing [10][11]. - The eight major industries contributing to PPI include oil and coal processing, chemical manufacturing, and electrical machinery, accounting for approximately 70% of the overall PPI changes [10][11]. Group 3: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market has entered a significant upward cycle since the second half of 2025, supported by a depreciating dollar and global credit expansion, which improves the financial environment for commodities [2][24]. - Industrial metals have seen substantial price increases, with copper and aluminum prices rising by 18.51% and 45.78% respectively since early 2025, driven by structural demand and supply constraints [17][26]. - Energy and chemical sectors are currently lagging in price recovery but are expected to gain momentum as geopolitical tensions and domestic economic recovery support demand [21][22]. Group 4: Future PPI Projections - The PPI is likely to turn positive in the second half of 2026, with key commodities like iron ore, crude oil, and copper expected to drive this change, showing a strong correlation with PPI movements [2][36]. - The analysis indicates that the PPI's upward movement will be influenced by the ongoing price increases in major commodities, with a potential earlier turnaround in PPI if commodity prices rise significantly [39][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The North Exchange's stock market activity has significantly increased, with new stock market funds exceeding 1 trillion [1] - The North Exchange added 5 new listed companies this month, bringing the total to 292, with a total market value of 936.30 billion and a circulating market value of 580.36 billion, reflecting increases of 7.7% and 10.3% respectively [1][13] - The North Exchange's trading volume and amount for the month were 24.52 billion shares and 607.72 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 26.8% in volume and 38.6% in amount [1][16] - The North Exchange 50 Index had a price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of 45.96, ranking in the 60.46th percentile over the past two years, and a price-to-book ratio (PB-MRQ) of 9.50, ranking in the 91.10th percentile [2][25] - The North Exchange's various sectors, except for the automotive sector, experienced a general increase in returns this month, with significant gains in media, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, public utilities, and agriculture [32][37] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The North Exchange's trading activity has shown a notable increase, with a monthly trading volume of 24.52 billion shares and a trading amount of 607.72 billion, marking a month-on-month increase of 26.8% and 38.6% respectively [1][16] - The North Exchange's total market value reached 936.30 billion, with a circulating market value of 580.36 billion, reflecting increases of 7.7% and 10.3% respectively [1][13] Valuation - As of January 30, the North Exchange 50 Index's PE-TTM was 45.96, and its PB-MRQ was 9.50, indicating high valuation levels compared to historical data [2][25] - The dividend yield was recorded at 0.72, placing it in the 18.09th percentile over the past two years [2][25] Industry Performance - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a monthly increase of 6.33%, while the specialized index rose by 6.06% [32] - Most sectors saw positive returns, with notable increases in media, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, public utilities, and agriculture [37] - The top-performing stocks this month included Kema Materials, Medela, Aishalon, and Guoliang New Materials [42]

Core Viewpoint - The company is implementing a transformation and upgrading strategy to enhance its core competitiveness and operational efficiency, focusing on stable growth and structural adjustment while addressing challenges in the industry [3][25]. Group 1: Growth and Structural Adjustment - The company is committed to fulfilling its mission as a state-owned enterprise by achieving stable and progressive development [4][26]. - It aims to address weaknesses in the industry by precisely adjusting its main business structure and enhancing its operational capabilities [27][28]. Group 2: Reform and Innovation - The company is reforming its main business structure and governance system to tackle management shortcomings and enhance efficiency [28][29]. - It emphasizes the importance of innovation as the primary driving force for growth and aims to strengthen its technological capabilities [20][48]. Group 3: Strategic Goals - The company has set a target for its main business structure to achieve a ratio of 5:4:1 for traditional, new, and future products, respectively, to ensure substantial growth [35][36]. - By the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan," the company aims for an average annual revenue growth of over 7.5%, industrial output growth of over 8%, and profit growth of over 8% [39][40]. Group 4: Core Competitiveness - The company is focusing on five dimensions to enhance its core competitiveness, including main business competitiveness, technological competitiveness, cost competitiveness, talent competitiveness, and market competitiveness [41][43]. - It aims to integrate development with safety, ensuring effective risk management while pursuing long-term growth [43][44]. Group 5: Leadership and Governance - The company is strengthening its party leadership and governance to ensure political integrity and accountability within its operations [49][50]. - It is committed to enhancing its management practices and ensuring that its operations align with national strategic goals [22][50].

Core Viewpoint - The Yunnan Provincial Party Committee has released recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the strengthening and expansion of resource-based industries through technological advancements and deep processing [1] Group 1: Resource-Based Industries - The plan aims to enhance the position of aluminum, silicon, phosphorus, non-ferrous, and rare metals in the national industrial chain and supply chain [1] - There is a focus on promoting green aluminum towards deep processing and terminal manufacturing, with the goal of establishing a "Green Aluminum Valley" [1] - The initiative includes upgrading the silicon photovoltaic industry and creating major production bases for leading enterprises [1] Group 2: Phosphorus and Non-Ferrous Metals - The development of fine phosphorus chemicals is prioritized, aiming to couple phosphorus resources with new energy battery materials and create a national advanced manufacturing cluster for green phosphorus chemicals [1] - The plan emphasizes the deep processing of non-ferrous metals and the extension of rare metals from materials to devices and equipment, with a focus on building a national advanced manufacturing cluster for rare metals in central Yunnan [1] Group 3: Mineral Resource Exploration and Utilization - A new round of strategic actions for mineral exploration is proposed to promote the exploration, development, and increase of important mineral resources [1] - The plan aims to improve the comprehensive utilization of mineral resources and strengthen the coordinated development of strategic and advantageous minerals [1] - There is an emphasis on the comprehensive utilization of recycled resources such as aluminum, copper, and platinum group metals [1] - The initiative includes the transformation and upgrading of industries such as mining, metallurgy, chemicals, building materials, and light industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity for a paradigm shift in supply chain finance, moving from an industry-focused perspective to a commodity-centric approach, which is essential for enhancing the effectiveness of financial services to the real economy [1][2][6]. Group 1: Shift in Perspective - The traditional supply chain finance model relies heavily on macroeconomic cycles and industry conditions, which limits its ability to accurately assess individual companies' resilience and risks [1][3]. - A refined focus on commodities allows for a more precise analysis framework that penetrates industry appearances to reveal the underlying value of businesses [2][3]. Group 2: Credit Assessment Transformation - Credit evaluation under the commodity perspective shifts from static financial data analysis to dynamic management of commodity price risks and hedging effectiveness, providing deeper insights into a company's operational health [4][6]. - This transformation supports the implementation of the central financial work meeting's directives, enabling financial resources to reach the core risk and value nodes of enterprises [4][6]. Group 3: Financial Ecosystem Restructuring - The integration of a commodity perspective is reshaping supply chain finance, leading to a new financial service ecosystem that aligns closely with industry dynamics [11][12]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to develop comprehensive risk management and financing solutions that encompass the entire supply chain cycle, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing credit friction [12][14]. Group 4: Role of Futures Market - A mature and efficient futures market is crucial for establishing a commodity perspective, as it provides essential infrastructure for price discovery, risk management, and resource allocation [7][9]. - The growth of China's futures market, with a significant increase in trading volume and product variety, reflects its alignment with national strategies to enhance capital market functions and support the real economy [9][10]. Group 5: Digital Transformation and Innovation - The adoption of digital technologies, such as blockchain and IoT, is transforming commodities into clear, traceable digital assets, facilitating better credit flow and risk management [5][13]. - The establishment of a digital credit infrastructure is essential for overcoming traditional barriers in financing and regulatory challenges associated with physical commodities [13][18]. Group 6: National Resource Security - The commodity perspective is not only a financial innovation but also a strategic necessity for ensuring national supply chain and resource security amid global geopolitical changes [15][23]. - The active participation of private enterprises in hedging activities demonstrates the effectiveness of the commodity-based supply chain finance model in managing price risks and stabilizing operations [16][19]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The future of supply chain finance is expected to evolve into a deeply integrated ecosystem that leverages technology and data across institutions and markets, enhancing the efficiency and safety of financial resource allocation to the real economy [24][25]. - This evolution is crucial for achieving the fundamental goal of improving financial services to the real economy, thereby supporting China's economic stability and growth [25][27].

Group 1 - The Trump administration announced the conclusion of the semiconductor policy investigation initiated during the Biden administration, with new tariffs on 18 categories of products from China starting on December 23, but set at a rate of 0% until June 2027 [2][4] - The investigation, conducted under Section 301 of U.S. trade law, began in late 2024 and focused on China's semiconductor policies, which the U.S. Trade Representative's Office criticized for not being based on fair market competition [4] - The U.S. Trade Representative's Office stated that the goal of China's industrial revitalization policies over the past 25 years has been to establish dominance in the semiconductor industry while attempting to exclude foreign companies [4][5] Group 2 - Although the U.S. Trade Representative's Office indicated that tariffs would be raised after June 23, 2027, the specific rate remains undetermined until late May 2027 [5]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of materials such as silicon, lithium, and platinum-palladium in the context of energy transition and global carbon neutrality goals, highlighting their role as the foundation for strategic emerging industries like new energy generation and high-end equipment manufacturing [2] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is organizing the 2025 China New Energy and New Materials Industry Conference on December 11-12 in Guangzhou, aiming to promote the deep integration and collaborative innovation of new energy and new materials industries [2] Group 2 - The conference is part of the efforts to implement the national "dual carbon" strategy and to assist in building a green modern industrial system [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming 2025 China New Energy and New Materials Industry Conference scheduled for December 11-12, 2025, in Guangzhou, focusing on the development of the new energy and materials sectors, particularly in relation to non-ferrous metals and their applications in various industries [2][4]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference is organized by Huatai Futures Co., Ltd. and GF Futures Co., Ltd., with support from various associations related to non-ferrous metals [5]. - The event will feature multiple sessions, including market cultivation activities by different futures companies, and will provide opportunities for networking and knowledge sharing among industry professionals [6][7]. Group 2: Key Sessions and Reports - The opening ceremony will include speeches from notable figures such as the Vice President of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and the Deputy Mayor of Guangzhou, emphasizing the importance of capital market development for new productivity [7]. - Key reports will cover topics such as the development prospects of the non-ferrous metal new energy materials industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan, battery recycling considerations, and the promotion of the Nansha Futures Industry Park [8][9]. Group 3: Thematic Forums - The conference will host thematic forums focusing on the platinum and lithium industries, discussing trends, applications, and challenges faced by these sectors [10][12]. - Specific sessions will address the current state and future outlook of the lithium industry, including developments in lithium battery recycling and market operations for lithium carbonate futures [12]. Group 4: Networking Opportunities - Attendees will have opportunities for networking during self-service dinners and roundtable discussions, allowing for the exchange of ideas and experiences among industry leaders [10][11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of materials such as silicon, lithium, and platinum-palladium in the context of energy transition and global carbon neutrality goals, highlighting their role as foundational elements in strategic emerging industries like new energy generation and high-end equipment manufacturing [2]. Group 1: Industry Context - The ongoing energy transition and the pursuit of global carbon neutrality are driving the demand for key materials essential for new energy and new materials industries [2]. - The Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is organizing the 2025 China New Energy and New Materials Industry Conference in Guangzhou, scheduled for December 11-12, to promote the integration and collaborative innovation of new production capacities in these sectors [2].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of materials such as silicon, lithium, and platinum-palladium in the context of energy transition and global carbon neutrality goals, highlighting their role as foundational elements in strategic emerging industries like new energy generation and high-end equipment manufacturing [2] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is organizing the 2025 China New Energy and New Materials Industry Conference on December 11-12 in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, to promote the integration and collaborative innovation of new production capacities in the new energy and new materials sectors [2]