| | | | 有色金属现货升贴7 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国投期货有色金属团队 | | | | 2025/9/30 | | SMM 1#电解铜-平均价 | | 涨跌 | SMM平水铜升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 铜 | 83240 | 1030 | -30 | 10 | | SMM A00铝-平均价 | | 涨跌 | SMM A00铝升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 铝 | 20720 | 30 | -20 | -10 | | 氧化铝(山西) | | 涨跌 | 澳洲氧化铝FOB-平均价 ( 美元 ) | 涨跌(美元) | | 2930 | | -5 | 323 | 0 | | SMM 1#铅锭-平均价 | | 涨跌 | SMM 1#铅锭对当月期货10:15升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 16800 | | 0 | -125 | -35 | | 铝 | 再生精铅-平均价 | 再生铅均价-涨跌 | 精废价差 | 涨跌 | | 16775 | | 0 | 25 | 0 | | 锌 | SMM 0#锌锭-平均价 | 涨跌 | SMM 0#锌锭对当月期货10:15升贴水 | 涨跌 | ...

Report Summary Core Information - The report provides the average prices, price changes, and spot premiums/discounts of various non - ferrous metals on September 24, 2025, including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silicon, and lithium [1]. Metal - Specific Details Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 80045, up 35; SMM flat - water copper premium/discount is 15, down 5 [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20680, unchanged; SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount is 0, up 10. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 2950, down 10; Australian alumina FOB average price is 323 dollars, unchanged [1]. Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16950, down 25; SMM 1 lead ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 90, up 5. Recycled refined lead average price is 16875, down 25; the price difference between refined and scrap lead is 75, unchanged [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 21820, down 60; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 60, down 5 [1]. Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 271400, up 700; SMM 1 tin premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 20, down 60. 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 259400, up 700, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.58% [1]. Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 121600, up 500; 1 imported nickel premium/discount to the SHFE nickel contract is 300, unchanged. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 123650, up 500; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium/discount to the SHFE nickel contract is 2350, unchanged [1]. Silicon - Oxygen - passed 553 (Xinjiang) average price plus 800 (with regional discount + 200 for quality impurity removal) is 10000, unchanged; 553 silicon spot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1015, down 75. 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 9950, polysilicon dense material average price is 0, granular silicon average price is 0, and N - type polysilicon material average price is 52.5 [1]. Lithium - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73850, unchanged; battery - grade lithium carbonate premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 850, down 620. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71600, and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250, unchanged [1]. Analyst Information - Xiao Jing, the chief analyst, focuses on copper and tin, with a qualification number of F3047773 and an investment consulting number of Z001408 [1]. - Liu Dongbo, a senior analyst, studies aluminum, alumina, and gold, with a qualification number of F3062795 and an investment consulting number of Z001531 [1]. - Wu Jiang, a senior analyst, is involved in nickel, stainless steel, silver, and lithium carbonate, with a qualification number of F3085524 and an investment consulting number of Z001639 [1]. - Sun Fangfang, a mid - level analyst, focuses on aluminum and zinc, with a qualification number of F03111330 and an investment consulting number of Z001890 [1]. - Zhang Xiurui, a mid - level analyst, studies industrial silicon, with a qualification number of F03099436 and an investment consulting number of Z002102 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the average prices, price changes, and spot premium/discounts of various non - ferrous metals on September 15, 2025, including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silicon, and lithium [1]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 80,940 with a rise of 185, and SMM flat - water copper premium/discount is 50 with a fall of 15 [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,950 with a fall of 70, and SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount is - 50 with a fall of 10; Alumina (Shanxi) price is 3,045 with a fall of 5, and Australian alumina FOB average price is 340 with no change [1]. Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16,950 with a rise of 175, and SMM 1 lead ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 70 with no change; Recycled refined lead average price is 16,900 with a rise of 150, and the refined - scrap price difference is 50 with a rise of 25 [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,230 with no change, and SMM 0 zinc ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 15 with a fall of 5 [1]. Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 273,300 with a fall of 600, and SMM 1 tin premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 300 with a rise of 200; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 261,300 with a fall of 600, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.61% [1]. Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 122,150 with a rise of 100, and 1 imported nickel premium/discount to the SHFE nickel contract average price is 300 with no change; 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 124,150 with a rise of 150, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium/discount to the SHFE nickel contract average price is 2,300 with a rise of 50 [1]. Silicon - The average price of Tongyang 553 (Xinjiang) plus 800, considering regional discount + 200 and quality impurity removal, is 9,650 with a rise of 50, and 553 spot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 950 with a rise of 1,050; 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 9,650, polycrystalline silicon dense material average price is 0, granular silicon average price is 0, and N - type polycrystalline silicon material average price is 51.55 [1]. Lithium - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 72,450 with no change, and battery - grade lithium carbonate premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 190 with a fall of 1,340; Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,200, and the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 with no change [1].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of the Interior has designated six minerals—potash, silicon, copper, silver, rhenium, and lead—as critical minerals, with formal recognition expected by the end of September. This move aims to bolster domestic production and reduce reliance on imports, which poses economic risks [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact - If the supply of the six designated minerals is halted for one year, the U.S. GDP is projected to decrease by approximately $4.95 billion [8]. - The U.S. Geological Survey indicates that the import dependency for potash and silicon exceeds 80%, raising concerns about economic security [4]. - The potential GDP loss from the disruption of each mineral varies, with potash estimated to cause a $2.5 billion loss and silicon $1 billion [7]. Group 2: Government Actions - The Trump administration is accelerating efforts to secure domestic production of critical minerals, having previously declared a national emergency due to insufficient domestic supply [4][6]. - The designation of these minerals will facilitate access to funding and loans for mining and production companies, as well as expedite the review process for production permits [6]. - The critical minerals list is updated approximately every three years, with the upcoming update expected to increase the total number of critical minerals to 54 [6]. Group 3: Specific Minerals and Risks - The designation process now includes minerals whose processed products face supply risks, such as copper, which, despite low import risk for ore, has significant economic implications if refined copper supply is disrupted [6]. - The U.S. is 100% reliant on China for certain critical minerals like samarium, which is essential for defense and aerospace industries. A one-year supply halt of samarium could lead to a GDP decrease of approximately $4.498 billion [8]. - The U.S. Department of Defense has become the largest shareholder in MP Materials, the only rare earth mine operating in the U.S., ensuring price stability for rare earth magnets over the next decade [8].

Group 1 - The Vice Chairman of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Yi Huiman, is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a meeting to support the investigation and emphasized adherence to the central government's decisions [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the 10th consecutive month, with foreign exchange reserves exceeding $3.3 trillion as of the end of August [2] - China's foreign exchange reserves rose by $29.9 billion, an increase of 0.91% from the end of July [2] Group 3 - New regulations on public fund sales have been introduced, leading to an estimated annual reduction of approximately 30 billion yuan in sales expenses, a decrease of 34% [3] - The maximum subscription and purchase fees for stock and mixed funds have been lowered significantly, with stock funds reduced from 1.2% to 0.8% and mixed funds from 1.2% to 0.5% [3] Group 4 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for August showed a significant slowdown, with only 22,000 jobs added, prompting traders to increase bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates [4] Group 5 - The U.S. has announced significant adjustments to its tariff policy, exempting key commodities such as gold and tungsten from tariffs while adding silicon products to the tax list [5] Group 6 - The Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, has announced his resignation, citing a desire to prevent division within the party [6] Group 7 - Shenzhen has implemented new housing policies to relax purchase restrictions in eight districts, aiming to meet residents' housing needs and promote a stable real estate market [7] Group 8 - The controlling shareholder of Tonghuashun, Yi Zheng, and another major shareholder plan to reduce their holdings by up to 0.26% of the company's total shares, citing personal financial needs [8] Group 9 - Major securities firms have provided insights into market liquidity characteristics, noting a divergence in ETF fund flows and a potential shift in investment strategies towards core assets [10] - Recommendations include focusing on structural opportunities in sectors such as consumer electronics, resources, innovative pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and gaming [11] Group 10 - The market is experiencing a bullish atmosphere, with expectations of continued high volatility and opportunities in sectors like solid-state batteries and AI computing [12] - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment is part of a larger upward trend, with a focus on low-penetration sectors and high-quality growth strategies [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant adjustments in the U.S. tariff policy, including exemptions for certain metals and the inclusion of silicon products in the tax list, which will have a substantial impact on trade dynamics and manufacturing sectors in the U.S. [2][4] Tariff Adjustments - President Trump announced exemptions for metals such as graphite, tungsten, uranium, and gold bars from global tariffs, while silicon products will be taxed [2][4] - The new tariff policy will take effect next Monday and includes various key product categories, such as aircraft parts, pharmaceuticals, and specialty spices that cannot be produced domestically [4][6] Trade Deficit and Import Surge - In July, the U.S. trade deficit widened to $78.3 billion, a 33% increase month-over-month, marking the highest level in four months [9] - The surge in imports was primarily driven by industrial goods, with gold imports reaching a record high of $10.5 billion [9][10] - The increase in imports is attributed to businesses stockpiling goods ahead of anticipated tariff hikes, leading to a significant rise in overall import volumes [9][10] Manufacturing Sector Challenges - The U.S. manufacturing sector has contracted for six consecutive months, with the PMI rising slightly to 48.7 in August, still below the neutral mark of 50 [12] - Many manufacturers report that the current business environment is worse than during the 2007-2009 recession, largely due to the uncertainties created by the tariff policies [12][13] - The automotive industry is particularly affected, with companies facing high tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, leading to significant profit impacts, such as Ford's projected $2 billion loss due to tariffs [13][14]

Group 1: Reported Metals and Their Price Changes - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 80,050, down 140; SMM flat - water copper premium is 70, down 5 [1] - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,660, up 50; SMM A00 aluminum premium is 0, up 20 [1] - Alumina (Shanxi) price is 3,100, down 40; Australian alumina FOB average price is 368, no change [1] - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16,725, no change; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 80, down 10 [1] - Recycled refined lead average price is 16,700, no change; refined - scrap spread is 25, no change [1] - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,020, up 50; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 15, up 30 [1] - SMM 1 tin average price is 271,700, down 500; SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 500, down 70 [1] - 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 259,700, down 500; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan)/SMM 1 tin ratio is 95.58% [1] - 1 imported nickel average price is 121,050, down 350; 1 imported nickel premium to the SHFE nickel contract average price is 350, no change [1] - 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 122,750, down 350; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to the SHFE nickel contract average price is 2,050, no change [1] - Oxygen - blown 553 (Xinjiang) average price + 800 with regional discount + 200 for quality impurity removal is 9,500, no change; 553 spot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 940, down 75 [1] - 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 9,650; polysilicon dense material average price is 0; granular silicon average price is 0; N - type polysilicon material average price is 51.6 [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 74,750, down 250; battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,450, down 790 [1] - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 72,500; battery - industrial carbon spread is 2,250, down 50 [1] Group 2: Analysts Information - Xiao Jing, Chief Analyst, studies copper and tin, with qualification number F3047773 and investment consulting number Z0014087 [1] - Liu Dongbo, Senior Analyst, studies aluminum, alumina, and gold, with qualification number F3062795 and investment consulting number Z0015311 [1] - Yan Jiang, Senior Analyst, studies nickel, stainless steel, silver, and lithium carbonate, with qualification number F3085524 and investment consulting number Z0016394 [1] - Sun Pupu, Intermediate Analyst, studies zinc, with qualification number EU3111330 and investment consulting number 70018905 [1]

file:///C:/Users/sunff/AppData/Local/Temp/企业微信截图_17569718548623.png 1/1 2025/9/4 15:52 企业微信截图_17569718548623.png (2702×4287) | | | | 有色金属现货升贴水 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国投期货有色金属团队 | | | | 2025/9/4 | | SMM 1#电解铜-平均价 | | 涨跌 | SMM平水铜升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 铜 | 80190 | -330 | 75 | -30 | | SMM A00铝-平均价 | | 涨跌 | SMM A00铝升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 铝 | 20610 | -120 | -20 | 10 | | 氧化铝(山西) | | 涨跌 | 澳洲氧化铝FOB-平均价（美元） | 涨跌(美元) | | 3140 | | -15 | 368 | 0 | | SMM 1#铅锭-平均价 | | 涨跌 | SMM 1#铅锭对当月期货10:15升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 16725 | | -25 | -70 | 3 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core View - No information provided 3) Summary by Related Content - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 79,545 with a decrease of 40, and SMM flat - water copper premium is 100 with an increase of 5 [1] - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,840 with an increase of 60, SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 20 with a decrease of 20; Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 3,195 with a decrease of 10, and Australian alumina FOB average price is 372 with no change [1] - **Lead**: SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16,775 with a decrease of 25, and SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 105 with no change; Recycled refined lead average price is 16,750 with no change, and the refined - scrap price difference is 25 with a decrease of 25 [1] - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,270 with a decrease of 10, and SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 45 with a decrease of 5 [1] - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin average price is 272,000 with an increase of 2,000, and SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 520 with a decrease of 520; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 2,600,000 with an increase of 2,000, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.59% [1] - **Nickel**: 1 imported nickel average price is 122,300 with an increase of 1,750, and 1 imported nickel premium to the SHFE nickel contract is 400 with no change; 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 124,400 with an increase of 1,650, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to the SHFE nickel contract is 2,500 with a decrease of 100 [1] - **Silicon**: Oxygen - passing 553 (Xinjiang) average price plus 800 is 9,550 with a decrease of 100, and 553 spot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,040 with an increase of 100; 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 9,750, polycrystalline silicon dense material average price is 0, granular silicon average price is 0, and N - type polycrystalline silicon material average price is 49 [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 81,600 with a decrease of 100, and battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,280 with a decrease of 640; Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 79,300, the battery - industrial lithium carbonate price difference is 2,300 with no change [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core View of the Report The report presents the average prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals and related products on August 26, 2025, including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silicon, and lithium, as well as their spot - futures spreads and other relevant data [1]. 3) Summary by Related Categories Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 79,585, with a rise of 190; SMM flat - water copper premium/discount drops by 5 [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,780, with no change; SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount drops by 20; Alumina (Shanxi) price drops by 10 to 3205, and the average FOB price of Australian alumina remains at 372 [1]. Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16,800, rising by 50; SMM 1 lead ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 rises by 10 to - 105; The average price of recycled refined lead is 16,750, rising by 50, and the refined - scrap spread remains unchanged at 50 [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,280, dropping by 30; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 remains unchanged at - 40 [1]. Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 270,000, rising by 300; SMM 1 tin premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 rises by 40 to 0; The average price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) is 258,000, rising by 300, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.56% [1]. Nickel - The average price of 1 imported nickel is 120,550, rising by 200; 1 imported nickel premium/discount to the SHFE nickel contract remains unchanged at 400; The average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 122,750, rising by 150; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium/discount to the SHFE nickel contract drops by 50 to 2600 [1]. Silicon - The average price of 421 silicon (Kunming) is 9750, with no change; The average price of polysilicon dense material remains unchanged, and the average price of granular silicon is 0, while the average price of N - type polysilicon material is 49; The average price of oxygen - passing 553 (Xinjiang) with a regional discount and quality impurity removal is 9650, with no change, and its premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 rises by 60 to 940 [1]. Lithium - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,700, dropping by 800; Its premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 drops by 1240 to 1920; The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 79,400, and the battery - industrial carbon spread remains unchanged at 2300 [1].