Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to historical highs, surpassing $58 per ounce, with a notable increase of over 100% in recent days, outpacing gold's approximately 60% rise this year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent spike in silver prices is attributed to a combination of industrial demand and speculative trading, with significant investments betting on further price increases [6][7]. - As of December 1, the total funds in silver futures exceeded 50 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest and positioning [2]. Group 2: Industrial Demand - Approximately 60% of silver's usage is in industrial applications, including electronics, renewable energy, and healthcare, with a notable increase in demand driven by the green energy revolution and advancements in technology [3][4]. - The automotive electrification process, AI industry expansion, and surging photovoltaic demand are identified as key structural factors driving industrial silver demand [4]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The World Silver Survey indicates a projected supply deficit of 95 million ounces by 2025, with a continuous decline in global silver mine production over the past decade [5]. - India's robust silver consumption, primarily for jewelry and decorative items, further exacerbates supply constraints, as the country relies heavily on imports for 80% of its silver needs [5]. Group 4: Price Projections and Market Sentiment - Analysts predict that silver prices may continue to rise, with some forecasts suggesting prices could reach $60 per ounce by 2026, and even potentially exceed $100 per ounce [7]. - The current market environment, characterized by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, has heightened the appeal of silver as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. Group 5: Broker Insights - Recent reports from brokers highlight that silver's dual nature as both a financial and industrial metal positions it favorably in the current market, with expectations of continued price strength amid declining inventories [8][9]. - The current silver price dynamics suggest a potential upward trajectory, with a target of $63 per ounce, while cautioning against blind buying and recommending waiting for pullback opportunities [8].

12月2日，近期金银市场的走势继续吸引全球资金关注。市场进入新一周与新一个月的首个交易日之 际，黄金价格再度创出六周高点，白银更是连续冲击并刷新历史纪录。GTC泽汇资本观察到，在宏观情 绪偏向谨慎、投资者寻求更高安全性的背景下，避险资金持续向贵金属流入，为价格提供了扎实的基本 面支撑。此外，随着短期技术形态不断改善，趋势型买盘进一步推动金银价格加速上行，使得贵金属成 为本阶段表现最为亮眼的资产类别之一。 全球股市隔夜普遍偏弱，美国主要指数在午盘仍呈现承压格局，虽较盘中低点有所回升，但整体情绪仍 然偏谨慎。市场对日本债市的担忧不断发酵，使全球投资者在周初重新评估风险，并促使部分资金减仓 权益资产，转向更具防御属性的资产配置。GTC泽汇资本表示，在全球宏观政策尚未出现明显统一方向 的阶段，任何来自主权债市的异动都容易对风险偏好造成额外冲击，而贵金属则在此类场景下持续受 益。 与此同时，有关美联储主席人选的讨论，为贵金属行情提供了另一层支撑。市场预期若新任主席的政策 立场更偏向宽松，将有助于降低未来利率路径的不确定性，并可能推动更早或更明确的降息预期。美元 指数的回落、原油价格维持在接近每桶59美元的水平、以及10 ...

12月2日，近期市场对美联储降息押注的迅速升温正提振黄金表现。贵金属机构 Heraeus 的分析显示， 尽管经济数据呈现分化，但市场对12月降息的预期已大幅抬升。OEXN 表示，利率预期的反复变化正 在重新塑造贵金属的风险偏好结构，并明显支撑避险资产价格的上行。 分析指出，就业、通胀及其他指标尚未出现明显恶化，并不足以单独促成降息，但消费者信心在11月出 现显著下滑，这成为市场重新定价的重要因素。两周前，市场对美联储12月降息的预测仅为30%，而上 周受多位官员谈及降息可能的影响，这一概率迅速跳升至80%以上。美联储政策利率上限与两年期美债 收益率之间仍有约50个基点的空间，虽不及10月时的75个基点，但仍为市场提供了想象空间。在此背景 下，金价上周突破每盎司 4200 美元这一此前的技术阻力位。OEXN 认为，利率预期的边际变化仍是黄 金趋势的核心驱动。 周一，黄金继续维持上周末的强势，在高位区间稳定运行。现货黄金最新报每盎司 4，231.93 美元，当 日上涨 0.38%。 银市方面，Heraeus 指出实物白银的紧张状况正进一步加剧，库存降至多年低位，投资需求则持续推高 价格。OEXN 表示，这种投资端 ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a market probability of 88% for a rate cut in December [4][5] - Economic indicators show signs of weakness in the U.S. economy, which supports the case for rate cuts and has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][8] - Silver's price increase is attributed to its dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity, benefiting from both monetary policy expectations and rising industrial demand [6][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold reached a six-week high of $4264 per ounce, while silver hit a historic high of $58.82 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 100% [3][4] - The decline in the U.S. dollar index to 99.01, its lowest in two weeks, has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, further stimulating demand [4] - The Federal Reserve's shift in focus from controlling inflation to stabilizing growth is expected to support gold prices, with predictions of gold potentially breaking the $4264 resistance level [5] Group 2: Silver's Unique Position - Silver's price surge is driven by its combination of safe-haven appeal and industrial demand, particularly in electronics and solar energy [6] - Recent improvements in manufacturing PMI in Europe and China have increased industrial demand for silver, contributing to its price rise [6] - Speculative interest in silver is heightened due to its higher volatility compared to gold, attracting investors seeking greater returns [6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in November, indicating ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector, which could lead to broader economic impacts [8] - Upcoming key economic data, including the ADP employment report and PCE price index, will be critical in shaping market expectations regarding interest rates and economic health [8] - The potential for a dovish signal from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell could trigger a significant buying spree in the gold market [8]

周二（12月2日）亚欧时段，现货黄金自隔夜回吐空间内维持震荡，目前暂交投于4213美元附近。周一（12月1日）现货黄金价格触及六周高点，每盎司一度 攀升至4264美元，美联储降息预期的持续发酵、美元的疲软走势，以及美国制造业数据的低迷表现，推动贵金属价格进入一个强劲的横盘整理至上涨趋势。 作为一种传统的避险资产，黄金和白银在不确定性加剧的环境中，再次展现出其独特的魅力。 基本面： 日线级别，金价昨日录得阳线收盘扩大此前反弹空间，盘中曾测试4265一线后回吐部分涨幅，至尾盘时段仍守住大部分涨幅报收暗示强劲，短期或仍面临更 多反弹空间有望逐渐挑战4300关口上下。1--4小时级别，短线走势自4000大关附近企稳上涨后本周盘中迎来收敛区间上破后扩大涨幅，隔夜盘中一度冲破三 周高点至4265一线后盘踞，至当前欧盘时段仍守住4200关口显示强势日内交易者或留意下方4200--4210区间测试支撑或尝试多单，上方压力关注4250/4280附 近 操作思路： 多单： 4200--4210轻仓多，止损4198，目标4250/4280附近 空单： 美元指数的走软成为黄金上涨的另一大助力。周一美元一度跌至两周低点99.01，尾盘 ...

本周，市场还将迎来更多关键数据，包括周三的11月ADP就业报告和周五的9月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数，后者是美联储最青睐的通胀指标。这些数 据如果继续显示疲软，将进一步巩固降息预期，推动金价走高。美联储主席鲍威尔将于当地时间周一晚些时候（北京时间周二上午9:00）发表讲话，这被视 为提供政策线索的重要时刻。如果鲍威尔释放更多鸽派信号，金市将迎来新一轮买盘涌入。反之，如果出现"鹰派降息"的迹象，即降息伴随短期内不再降息 的暗示，金价可能短期承压，但长期趋势仍向上。全球债市波动与美联储继任者谜局 多头仍有所顾忌，因为周一美国国债收益率大幅上扬，10年期国债收益率涨至4.096%，创下自7月中旬以来的最大单日涨幅；30年期收益率升至4.744%，两 年期收益率也攀升至3.534%，这意味着持有黄金的机会成本增加。 美元指数：图表显示目前美指为震荡反弹行情。 白银图表： 基本面： 周二（12月02日）白银亚盘大幅冲高回落，等待支撑位多单布局。白银暴涨创纪录，年内涨幅超100%如果说黄金的上涨是稳健的，那么白银的表现则可以 用"爆炸性"来形容。周一，白银价格大涨3.8%，收报每盎司58.57美元，盘中更是触及58. ...

格隆汇12月2日｜据分析师称，由于财富管理业务表现出色，华侨银行的股价创下了新的历史记录。华 侨银行股价涨幅高达0.6%，高于两周多前的历史高点。该股今年迄今的表现一直落后于新加坡海峡时 报指数及其最大的公司星展集团，但自11月初以来，其表现已超越两者。麦格理资本东盟股票研究主管 Jayden Vantarakis表示，华侨银行的股票受到"财富业务特许经营权的卓越表现以及2026年更高股息的可 选性"的支撑。他说："我们认为该股有缩小与星展银行差距的空间。"今年，由于全球贸易紧张局势和 美联储降息的前景，投资者纷纷涌入避险资产，大量流动性流入，使得新加坡股市创下历史新高。三家 最大的银行（约占基准指数的一半）都受益于财富管理和交易费收入。 ...

美国经济数据疲软加剧市场不确定性 美联储的货币政策一直是影响黄金价格的核心变量，而近期降息预期的升温，更是直接助推了金价的上涨。现货黄金周一收报每盎司4232.08美元，涨幅 0.3%，盘中最高触及4264美元，这是自10月21日以来的峰值。美国期金2月合约也同步上扬0.5%，结算价定格在4274.80美元。造成这一现象的主要原因是， 交易员们对美联储12月降息的概率评估高达88%，这源于美国经济数据的疲软信号和美联储官员的鸽派表态。例如，美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储主席威廉姆 斯等人的言论，进一步强化了市场对宽松政策的预期。与此同时，美元指数的走软成为黄金上涨的另一大助力。周一美元一度跌至两周低点99.01，尾盘虽 小幅回升至99.41附近，但整体疲态尽显。美元贬值使得持有其他货币的投资者购买黄金的成本降低，从而刺激需求。分析师指出，这种降息预期不仅源于 当前的经济压力，还与通胀水平高于美联储目标有关。尽管通胀压力持续存在，但美联储似乎更倾向于通过降息来刺激经济，这为黄金提供了坚实的支撑基 础。展望未来，如果12月会议如期降息25个基点，金价可能进一步突破现有高点，进入更强劲的上涨通道。 白银暴涨创纪录，年内涨 ...

来源：金都财神A 【消息面】 周一（12月1日）现货黄金价格触及六周高点，每盎司一度攀升至4264美元，而现货白银更是创下历史新高至每盎司58.82美元，美联储降息预期的持续发 酵、美元的疲软走势，以及美国制造业数据的低迷表现，推动贵金属价格进入一个强劲的横盘整理至上涨趋势。作为一种传统的避险资产，黄金和白银在不 确定性加剧的环境中，再次展现出其独特的魅力。周二（12月2日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于4220美元。 本周，市场还将迎来更多关键数据，包括周三的11月ADP就业报告和周五的9月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数，后者是美联储最青睐的通胀指标。这些数 据如果继续显示疲软，将进一步巩固降息预期，推动金价走高。 【12.2黄金交易建议】 1，黄金近期波幅较大，黄金稳健回落4186-4189美元附近多，止损4181美元，止盈看4210-4220美元 2，黄金上涨4238-4241美元附近空，止损4246美元，止盈看4220美元 3，建议仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 【黄金行情走势简析】 1，上一个交易日，亚盘黄金震荡上行，午后黄金跌至4215美元后上涨，笔者在文章中建议4215-4218美元 ...

Core Insights - Silver has emerged as a focal point in financial markets, experiencing a significant price surge after years of stagnation, driven by strong fundamentals and technical breakthroughs [1][5][16] Fundamental Factors - The primary driver of silver's price increase is the imbalance between demand and supply, with demand growing faster than supply. The global silver market has been in a state of deficit for several years, particularly due to industrial demand from sectors like solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics, which has outpaced mining output [4][5] - Investors are rediscovering silver as a safe-haven asset amid uncertain global growth prospects and shifting central bank policies. The expectation of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. has reduced the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, further fueling the price increase [4][5] Technical Factors - A significant technical pattern has been identified in silver's long-term chart, resembling a "cup and handle" formation, which typically signals a long-term bullish reversal. The price has recently broken through the handle resistance level, indicating a strong upward trend [6][8] - This breakout is interpreted as a confirmation of a potential multi-year bull market for silver, attracting both institutional and retail investors [8] Market Focus - Upcoming economic data releases from the U.S. and Eurozone are critical for determining whether the silver price rally can be sustained. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to announce a third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, influenced by mixed employment data and soft inflation indicators [9][11] - In the Eurozone, stable inflation around the European Central Bank's target suggests that no abrupt policy changes are likely, which supports a favorable liquidity environment for commodities and risk assets [12][13] Conclusion - The current market dynamics present a "perfect storm" for silver, characterized by supportive fundamentals, accommodating central bank policies, and a strong long-term technical outlook. Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data, as well as Eurozone CPI, to gauge the sustainability of silver's upward momentum [13][16][17]