Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" and the rating has been maintained [3][24]. Core Insights - Financing demand has shown signs of recovery, with a significant rebound in M1 growth. The June financial data indicates an increase in both loans and deposits, reflecting improved liquidity conditions and a recovery in credit demand [6][21]. - The report highlights that the increase in short-term loans for enterprises and the weak recovery in household loans are notable trends. The overall credit environment is improving, supported by fiscal measures [11][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - As of the end of June 2025, the balance of RMB loans reached 268.56 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.06%. In June, RMB loans increased by 2.24 trillion yuan, which is 110 billion yuan more than the previous year [7][11]. - The balance of short-term loans was 67.94 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.28%, while the balance of medium to long-term loans was 179.18 trillion yuan, growing at 6.76% [7][11]. Loan Composition - In June, household loans increased by 597.6 billion yuan, with short-term loans at 262.1 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans at 335.3 billion yuan. This indicates a slight recovery in household financing demand [11][24]. - Corporate loans saw a significant increase, with new loans amounting to 1.77 trillion yuan, including 1.16 trillion yuan in short-term loans, reflecting improved business operations and reduced trade tensions [11][24]. Monetary Supply and M1 Growth - M2 growth rate was 8.3% in June, while M1 growth rate rebounded to 4.6%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the previous month. This rebound is attributed to the low base effect from last year [18][21]. - The report notes that the increase in M1 is indicative of a recovery in liquidity, with significant contributions from both household and corporate deposits [16][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent increase in new credit and improved monetary supply indicate a marginal improvement in the liquidity environment. It recommends focusing on large banks with sufficient provisions and stable profitability as the earnings disclosure period approaches [21][24]. - The emphasis is placed on the long-term investment potential of the banking sector, particularly in light of new regulations encouraging stable investments from insurance companies [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current adjustment of the dividend yield has alleviated the pressure of the over - valued bond market, and the odds have increased marginally. The current cost - performance advantage of bonds is gradually emerging, which may provide a more favorable valuation support environment for the phased layout of interest - rate bonds [7][18]. - The liquidity environment provides a relatively stable operating foundation for the bond market. The social financing growth rate may peak in the third quarter and then decline trend - wise, and the expected impact of structural changes on the bond market is limited. The bond market faces a relatively friendly liquidity environment [7][24]. - The central bank has clearly shown its attitude of protecting liquidity, and the money market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond may decline to around 1.6%. It is recommended to pay continuous attention to the yield curve and various convex point opportunities, and the spread may continue to be flattened in late July. It is advisable to first focus on interest - rate bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds, and then on credit bonds [7][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Bond Market Callback - From July 7th to July 16th, the yields of the bond market generally increased. The yields of the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds increased by 2bp and 3bp respectively, and the short - end yields increased more significantly. The adjustment of Tier 2 capital bonds was more obvious [5][12]. Bond Market Odds Gradually Rising - The adjustment of the dividend yield has alleviated the pressure of the over - valued bond market, and the odds have increased marginally. The decline of the CSI 300 dividend yield from the May average of 3.47% to 3.0% on July 14th is conducive to the inflow of funds into the bond market [7][18]. - The liquidity environment provides a stable foundation for the bond market. The social financing growth rate is expected to reach a high of about 9.0% in July and then decline to around 8.2% by the end of the year. The support of government bonds for social financing may weaken in the fourth quarter, and the substitution effect of special refinancing bonds on RMB loans will continue. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the bond market's liquidity environment is friendly [7][24]. 10 - year Treasury Bond Has Certain Odds Above 1.65%, Recommend First Interest - rate and Tier 2 Capital Bonds, Then Credit Bonds - Due to the disturbance of the money market at the beginning of the quarter and the strengthening of the equity market, the Tier 2 capital bonds and credit bonds with previously compressed spreads have given back their gains, especially the medium - and long - term and some medium - and low - grade varieties. However, the core logic of Tier 2 capital bonds has not changed [33]. - Since July 10th, the central bank has shifted to net investment in open - market operations. The money market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond may decline to around 1.6%. It is recommended to seize the layout opportunities after the adjustment, with medium - and short - term varieties as the basis for coupon income, and medium - and high - grade 3 - 5 - year varieties having better elasticity in interest - rate band operations [34].

Core Insights - The bond custody scale maintained rapid growth in April 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.5%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from March. The newly added custody scale was 1.7 trillion yuan, showing a marginal decline month-on-month but remaining at a historically high level [2][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Overview - Government bonds and interbank certificates of deposit saw a seasonal increase, while treasury bonds experienced a seasonal decrease. The total supply of government bonds (including treasury and local government bonds) approached 1 trillion yuan in April, which is consistent with seasonal patterns, and remains higher than the same period last year [5]. - Major institutional investors included banks and asset management accounts. Commercial banks increased their holdings by 797.5 billion yuan, while insurance companies added 167.3 billion yuan, primarily increasing local government bonds. Asset management accounts increased by 1.1 trillion yuan, mainly in interbank certificates of deposit [5][6]. Group 2: Future Outlook - It is expected that bond supply in May will increase compared to April. The ability of banks to absorb this supply will depend on the liquidity provided by the central bank. Insurance companies are anticipated to adjust their bond allocation rhythm in line with local government bond supply [6]. - Asset management accounts are expected to see a recovery in funding increments, with a potential for continued stable growth in wealth management scale if liquidity remains loose [6]. Group 3: New Stock Issuance - Upcoming new stock issuances include companies like Xin Heng Hui and Hua Zhi Jie, with issuance dates in June 2025. The issuance prices range from 0.80 yuan to 11.50 yuan, with various underwriting firms involved [7]. Group 4: Industry News - In April 2025, the import value of automotive parts reached 1.7 billion USD, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% but a year-on-year decrease of 28.1% [11]. - According to Counterpoint, the global new energy vehicle battery installation volume is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year in 2024, with Chinese manufacturers capturing over 70% of the market share [12]. Group 5: Company Announcements - Jiuan Medical plans to register and issue medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds, with a total registration amount not exceeding 3.5 billion yuan [13]. - Zhongke Electric intends to invest up to 8 billion yuan in an integrated lithium-ion battery anode material project in Oman, with a planned annual production capacity of 200,000 tons [15]. - Aeston is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [16]. - Li New Energy is set to invest approximately 1.25 billion yuan in three independent energy storage projects [18].

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue its oscillation in the short to medium term, with accelerated style rotation driven by monetary policy easing and strong export performance [1] - In May, a rotation pattern of "risk aversion - consumption - growth" may re-emerge, starting with technology growth stocks, followed by a shift towards defensive assets as macroeconomic risks increase [1] - The recovery of the consumption sector is anticipated after the defensive phase, supported by policy dividends and improving consumption data, leading to new investment opportunities driven by domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The market shows resilience due to dual drivers of policy support and economic recovery, despite short-term fluctuations in trading volume reflecting cautious sentiment [2] - The first quarter saw a positive turnaround in net profit growth for all A-shares, indicating improving corporate earnings and strengthening internal economic recovery [2] - The effects of monetary policy easing and long-term capital inflows are expected to enhance liquidity, supporting a continued recovery in consumption and investment sectors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data forecast indicates that the increase in RMB loans in February is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, with a slight improvement in social financing growth to around 8.2% [1][8]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - In February 2025, the central bank maintained a tight liquidity environment, with a net liquidity injection of 322.7 billion yuan through various monetary policy tools [3]. - The policy interest rates remained unchanged, but a "moderately loose" monetary policy stance is expected to continue, with potential for structural rate cuts depending on economic conditions [2]. - The government bond issuance in February reached a net issuance of 1.7 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous year's level, indicating a robust fiscal stance [3][4]. Group 2: Credit and Financing - Credit growth in February is anticipated to be relatively low due to the consumption of credit reserves from January's concentrated lending, with an expected loan increment of over 1 trillion yuan [4]. - Social financing growth is projected to improve slightly to around 8.2%, supported by increased government bond issuance [4]. - The credit environment in 2025 is expected to show a "two ends low, middle high" pattern, with a potential end to the downward trend in social financing growth [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The liquidity environment is expected to improve slightly in March, but the overall conditions may remain tight due to increased local government bond issuance [5]. - The investment strategy suggests that fiscal factors will support credit expansion, with a focus on bank stocks that offer stable returns and strong asset quality [8][9]. - The commercial model reassessment logic is seen as a core issue for bank valuation improvement, emphasizing the selection of stocks with stable performance and low valuation volatility [9].