市场冰火两重天，A村无论指数还是个股都不错，中位数涨幅0.5cm，但港股扑街，A股之前涨得不错的 周期股也无理由下跌。 举例来说，周五晚白银大涨，今天也没怎么跌，但黄金股、白银股都在跌。今天跌的主要是周期、消费 和医药，但原因可能不太一样。 那他应该抱怨熬了很多年呢，还是应该感恩终于被提拔上去了？从本质来看，价值投资是一种对成功路 径的选择，但也不能保证马上会成功、一定会成功。所以你必须认识到，合理是少数、不合理是多数， 但合理是才是属于你的机会，不合理是属于其他人的机会。或者说，不合理是某些人的机会，但会是你 的地狱；作为一个普通人，合理才是我们唯一的依仗。 对了，今天还有件事值得写下。由于德银发了看空研报，泡泡玛特盘中大跌9cm。我仔细看了下研报， 理由基本上还是二手泡泡玛特跌价，特别是隐藏款大幅跌价，倒推一手失去投资价值。这个理由其实已 经被写烂了，也并不太符合实际，因为绝大多数人买泡泡玛特是消费而不是投资，并没打算卖出去。每 次发做空报告的时候，就是做空最凶猛的时候，很难分清是先有鸡还是先有蛋。 但有一点是确定的，那就是做空是需要回购的，今天做空了多少未来就需要回购多少，这些本质看都是 潜在的多头。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies aims to enhance their solvency regulation standards, promote long-term investments, and support the real economy amidst a challenging domestic and international environment [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Background and Objectives - The policy is part of the "second generation solvency regulation" reform in the insurance industry, reflecting the need for supply-side reforms in response to current market pressures [2]. - The adjustment of risk factors is intended to encourage insurance companies to invest in A-shares and support foreign trade and investment, addressing the development challenges in these areas [2]. Group 2: Capital Market Implications - The A-share market is showing signs of recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around the 4000-point mark, indicating increased market resilience [3]. - Regulatory measures are being implemented to enhance the inclusivity of the capital market, particularly to support technology innovation and new productive forces [3]. - The core task for the A-share market is to stabilize and improve the quality of listed companies, which requires sustained policy patience and long-term capital support [3]. Group 3: Foreign Trade and Investment Context - China's foreign trade is characterized by steady growth and structural upgrades, despite facing complex external challenges [4]. - The need for policy incentives to enhance insurance support for foreign trade and investment is emphasized, particularly in light of rising risks and challenges in the global environment [4]. Group 4: Impact of Risk Factor Adjustments - The adjustment of risk factors is expected to inject approximately 32.6 billion yuan of capital into the market, potentially providing around 108.6 billion yuan in incremental funds if fully allocated to the CSI 300 stocks [11]. - The policy aims to stabilize the market by encouraging long-term value investments, thereby reducing short-term volatility [11]. - The adjustments will also enhance support for the real economy by directing insurance funds towards strategic sectors such as technology innovation and high-end manufacturing [11]. Group 5: Microeconomic Effects on Insurance Companies - The reduction in risk factors will improve the solvency ratios of insurance companies by lowering the minimum capital requirements [12]. - It will also create new opportunities for business expansion and risk asset allocation for insurance companies [12]. - The changes are expected to drive a transformation in investment philosophies and assessment mechanisms within insurance companies, promoting a shift from transactional to long-term value investment [12]. Group 6: Market Signals and Future Outlook - The adjustment sends a clear signal to the market that long-term investment strategies will be favored, potentially leading to a more stable A-share market [13][14]. - The insurance sector may experience improved fundamentals and valuation opportunities as a result of increased long-term equity investments [14]. - The regulatory framework is designed to guide financial resources towards supporting the real economy and national strategies, indicating a long-term commitment rather than short-term stimulus [15].

红利国企ETF（510720）近20日净流入超4.8亿元，把握防御性板块配置价值，关注连续分红19个月的 红利国企ETF 红利国企ETF（510720）跟踪的是上国红利指数（000151），该指数从市场中筛选具备高分红特征、分 红稳定性良好且兼具规模与流动性的股票作为成分股，主要覆盖金融、能源、工业等传统行业领域，集 中体现价值投资策略下稳健收益与长期分红的特性。 值得注意的是，红利国企ETF（510720）在上市后的每个月都做到了分红，已连续分红19个月，是市场 上少有的上市以来每月践行分红的ETF基金，感兴趣的朋友可以逢低布局。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 德邦证券指出，当前市场缺乏明显主线，防御性板块及部分周期品种逆势活跃，红利板块因股息率有吸 引力和避险配置需求受到关注。市场情绪偏弱，临近年末资金观望情绪浓厚，量能不足制约上行空间， 板块轮动或延续。建议维持均衡配置科技与红利，以对冲轮动风险。 ...

Core Insights - The conversation features a rare appearance by investor Duan Yongping, who discusses his "benfen" philosophy that underpins his business and investment practices, emphasizing the importance of understanding business fundamentals [1][2][66] - Duan Yongping shares insights on investment, corporate culture, and education, highlighting the significance of long-term thinking and rationality in both business and personal life [2][67] Investment Logic - Duan emphasizes that understanding the business is crucial for successful investment, citing his experience with Vanke and the importance of recognizing true value in financial data [11][12] - He mentions that he bought shares in Moutai and believes in its long-term potential, suggesting that understanding consumer preferences is key to investment decisions [12][13] Corporate Culture and Succession - The success of companies like OPPO and Vivo is attributed to a hiring principle that prioritizes cultural fit over individual capability, indicating a systematic approach to building a cohesive team [2][66] - Duan discusses the importance of a user-oriented corporate culture that focuses on doing the right things over merely chasing profits, which he believes is essential for long-term sustainability [17][18] Marketing Philosophy - Duan outlines a straightforward marketing principle: there should be no lies in communication, and messages should be conveyed to users with maximum efficiency [2][66] - He shares his experience with advertising, emphasizing the need for authenticity and the careful crafting of messages to resonate with consumers [35][36] Educational Insights - Duan provides a perspective on parenting, advocating for unconditional love and setting boundaries to foster a sense of security in children, which he believes can break generational cycles of behavior [2][67] - He argues against physical punishment, suggesting that it does not build resilience but rather creates insecurity, and emphasizes the importance of guiding children with understanding [50][51] Long-term Mindset - Duan defines "平常心" (ordinary mind) as rationality and long-term thinking, asserting that maintaining a long-term perspective helps in overcoming external distractions [2][67] - He believes that a long-term approach is essential for both business success and personal fulfillment, creating a logical framework that connects various aspects of life [64]

格隆汇12月9日｜知名企业家、投资人段永平近期现身纪实节目《共同说》第三季，与王石、田朴珺展 开一场深度对谈。段永平表示，很多人说，价值投资很难。但投机更难！很多人不理解这个问题。投机 百分之八九十的散户都是亏钱的，牛市、熊市都亏。然后说我很难，我买茅台一直拿着，拿了十几年， 我难在哪儿了？ 田朴珺提问，现在您还看好茅台吗？段永平称，有什么理由不看好呢？当然，你要不 喝酒很难理解这个问题，但是我有太多朋友喜欢喝茅台了，所以我能够懂它这个生意。我觉得你有闲 钱，买茅台肯定是比放银行好，但是有没有东西可以涨得比茅台更多？肯定有。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints On December 5, the liquidity slightly tightened; the bond market fluctuated and recovered; the main indices of the convertible bond market collectively rose, and most convertible bond issues increased in price; yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally increased, and yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies generally rose [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: On the evening of December 5, Chinese and U.S. economic and trade leaders held a video call, discussing the implementation of previous consensuses and promoting stable and positive development of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations [3]; on December 6, China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing emphasized accelerating the creation of first-class investment banks and institutions to boost high-quality development of the capital market [4]; on December 5, the CSRC solicited public opinions on the "Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Listed Companies"; the "Administrative Measures for Financial Leasing Business of Financial Leasing Companies" will be implemented from January 1, 2026; the central bank renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement with the Macao Monetary Authority, expanding the scale to 50 billion yuan/57 billion Macao patacas [5][6]. - **International News**: U.S. economic data for September showed inflation and personal income increases, but actual personal consumption expenditures remained stagnant; the preliminary December consumer confidence index rose, and short-term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level since January; key European economies' 10-year government bond yields generally increased [7][8][30]. - **Commodities**: On December 5, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, with WTI January crude futures up 0.69% to $60.08 per barrel and Brent February crude futures up 0.77% to $63.75 per barrel; COMEX February gold futures closed flat at $4,243 per ounce; NYMEX natural gas prices rose 5.25% to $5.337 per ounce [9][10]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open Market Operations**: On December 5, the central bank conducted 139.8 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 303.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 161.5 billion yuan [12]. - **Funding Rates**: On December 5, the liquidity slightly tightened but remained generally loose. DR001 rose 0.06bp to 1.300%, and DR007 rose 0.04bp to 1.438% [13]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest Rate Bonds**: On December 5, affected by rumors of the Politburo's mention of "dual cuts," the bond market fluctuated and recovered. Yields on 10-year government bonds and 10-year China Development Bank bonds decreased [16]. - **Credit Bonds**: On December 5, the trading prices of two industrial bonds deviated by over 10%; several companies, including Zhengyuan Real Estate and Fosun Group, faced regulatory actions due to information disclosure violations; many companies, such as Vanke and Longfor Group, announced bond-related events [18][19][22]. - **Convertible Bonds**: On December 5, the A-share market rose, and the convertible bond market followed suit. The main convertible bond indices increased, and most individual convertible bonds rose. Several companies, including Aowei Electronics, announced convertible bond-related events [21][23][27]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: On December 5, yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally increased, and yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies generally rose; the daily price changes of Chinese dollar bonds are provided [26][30][32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving perspectives on growth and value investing, highlighting the need to reassess traditional investment principles in light of modern economic realities and the success of high-growth companies [5][6][7]. Group 1: Growth vs. Value - There is an acknowledged and widening divergence between growth and value investing, with traditional value principles struggling to account for the sustained high growth of companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon [7][8]. - The underlying economic structure has shifted, suggesting that reliance on historical value metrics may no longer be sufficient for investment success [7][8]. - Despite the differences, there are fundamental commonalities between growth and value investing, particularly in the importance of honest long-term cash flow estimation and risk management [8][9]. Group 2: Historical Context and Evolution - Historically, there has been a lack of literature supporting growth investing compared to the extensive documentation of value investing, which has created a bias in the investment community [13][14]. - The belief that "value will ultimately prevail" remains entrenched, despite evidence that growth strategies have outperformed passive indices over the long term [14][15]. - The past decade has seen a significant deviation from Graham's observations, with high-growth stocks yielding substantial returns, contrary to his predictions [18][19]. Group 3: Case Studies - Microsoft serves as a prime example of a company that has achieved remarkable long-term growth, with revenue increasing from $60 billion in 2008 to $110 billion in 2018, showcasing a compound annual growth rate of 24% [20]. - Google also exemplifies this trend, with its revenue growing from $21.8 billion in 2008 to $136.8 billion in 2018, reflecting the potential of high-growth companies to deliver exceptional returns [21]. - The article contrasts Coca-Cola's stagnation in stock value over the past 20 years with Facebook's growth trajectory, suggesting that the latter may align more closely with modern investment principles [70][75]. Group 4: Future Investment Landscape - The future of investing will likely be shaped by structural changes in the global economy, necessitating a shift in focus from short-term financial metrics to long-term transformative trends [40][41]. - The concept of "creative destruction" is becoming increasingly relevant, indicating that traditional investment strategies may need to adapt to a rapidly changing economic environment [41][42]. - Companies that can leverage network effects and platform positions may exhibit "super-linear growth," challenging traditional value investment assumptions [61][62].

Core Viewpoint - High dividend stocks are showing strong performance, with a focus on "high dividend + low valuation" large-cap blue-chip stocks in the value ETF (510030), which saw an intraday price increase of nearly 1% and a current rise of 0.37% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The value ETF (510030) is closely tracking the Shanghai 180 Value Index, which has a price-to-book ratio of 0.84, indicating a relative low valuation at the 34.9 percentile over the past decade, highlighting its mid to long-term investment appeal [3] - Key stocks in the ETF include major financial sector leaders, with notable gains such as 8.33% for Xingye Securities and 4.63% for Niu Dou Securities, among others [1][2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The securities industry is expected to experience high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan, playing a core role in serving the real economy and optimizing wealth allocation [1] - Policies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission are expected to create structural investment opportunities and long-term value reconstruction in the securities sector, particularly benefiting leading brokerages [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The high dividend sector remains strong, with oil and petrochemical stocks performing particularly well in November, and expectations for a recovery in market risk appetite in December [3] - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is at 12 times, close to historical averages, suggesting that the Chinese stock market may still have room for expansion [3]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.418 | 102.430 | 105.755 | 105.765 | 107.870 | 107.885 | 112.51 | 112.67 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.368 | 102.388 | 105.595 | 105.610 | 107.670 | 107.695 | 112.45 | 112.61 | | | 涨跌 | 0.050 | 0.042 | 0.160 | 0.155 | 0.200 | 0.190 | 0.060 | 0.060 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.05% | 0. ...

机构认为，年末行情轮动较快，或仍以震荡结构为主。 【财经日历】 中国11月贸易帐 国内成品油将开启新一轮调价窗口 恒生指数系列三季度季检结果生效 《证券结算风险基金管理办法》正式施行 2025年两化融合暨数字化转型大会(沈阳，12/8-12/9) 新股申购：纳百川、优迅股份 当地时间上周五，美国股市温和收高，截至收盘，道指涨0.22%，标普500指数涨0.19%，纳指涨0.31%。其中，标普500和纳指连续第四个交易日上涨。 美国科技七巨头走势分化，微软上涨0.48%，亚马逊涨0.18%，谷歌A上涨1.15%，Meta上涨1.80%；特斯拉小幅走高0.11%。另一方面，苹果下跌0.68%，英 伟达冲高回落0.53%。 华纳兄弟探索公司股价上涨6.3%，此前有消息称奈飞同意以720亿美元收购其电视、电影制片和流媒体资产，结束多周竞购。奈飞收跌2.9%，另一竞争者帕 拉玛斯斯凯丹斯重挫9.8%。 纽约尾盘，现货黄金下跌0.30%报4194.86美元，周累计下跌1.03%；COMEX黄金期货收跌0.44%报4224.30美元，周累计下跌0.73%。 ►►国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究进一步做好节能降碳工 ...