U.S. July PPI annual rate was 3.3%, exceeding expectations of 2.5%, with the previous value revised from 2.3% to 2.4%. This significantly surpassed the market's expected 2.5%, marking the highest level since February. The U.S. July PPI monthly rate was 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022. ...

🚨BREAKING🚨🇺🇸 U.S PPI CAME IN AT 3.3%EXPECTATIONS: 2.5% ...

Interest Rate Outlook - The market initially anticipated three Federal Reserve rate cuts at the beginning of the year, but expectations have been adjusted downwards to potentially just one cut [3] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 4% probability of a 50 basis point cut [2] - Inflation data, including CPI and PPI, suggests persistent inflationary pressures, potentially hindering the Federal Reserve's ability to implement rate cuts [4] - The Federal Reserve's data-driven approach implies that unfavorable data could further delay anticipated rate cuts [6] Market Sentiment and Risk - The market exhibits signs of frothiness, evidenced by bullish IPOs, record highs in Bitcoin, and upside movements in Ether [7][8] - Market broadening could be a positive sign, as returns have been concentrated in a small segment of the market, making it fragile [9] - Market momentum and sentiment are vulnerable to sudden shifts, and a catalyst could trigger a downturn [10] - Confidence in data, policy, and the functioning of markets is crucial for sustaining market sentiment [12][13] Geopolitical Considerations - While the Russian economy may not directly impact the US economy, a meeting between the US President and the Russian President could influence market sentiment [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is currently focusing on the semi - annual reports of listed companies. The net profit growth rates of the four major broad - based indexes are showing positive growth, and the improvement of the fundamentals of some listed companies supports the stock market. However, one should be wary of the drag on the index performance caused by the profit decline of companies that have not yet released their financial reports. - With the high valuation of US stocks, A - shares with more reasonable valuations continue to attract foreign capital inflows, injecting incremental funds into the market. - Although the market faces certain pressure near the previous stage high, the trading volume has not significantly declined. After a short - term consolidation, A - shares still have the potential to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position for the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) is at 4163.8, down 0.8; IH (2509) is at 2829.6, up 13.6; IC (2509) is at 6380.2, down 64.2; IM (2509) is at 6929.2, down 66.2. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1344.6, down 18.6; IC - IF spread is 2259.0, down 65.6; IM - IC spread is 557.4, down 1.0. - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: IF (quarter - month) is - 33.8, up 4.4; IH (quarter - month) is 1.8, down 2.2; IC (quarter - month) is - 188.6, up 14.0; IM (quarter - month) is - 234.0, up 8.2 [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions are - 26,185.00, down 2544.0; IH top 20 net positions are - 16,055.00, down 1890.0; IC top 20 net positions are - 15,324.00, down 2013.0; IM top 20 net positions are - 49,157.00, down 3751.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - CSI 300 is at 4173.31, down 3.3; SSE 50 is at 2829.47, up 16.5; CSI 500 is at 6429.85, down 78.3; CSI 1000 is at 6976.49, down 87.9 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 23,062.83 billion yuan, up 1310.72 billion yuan; margin trading balance is 20,462.51 billion yuan, up 117.18 billion yuan; northbound trading volume is 2771.92 billion yuan, up 406.58 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In July, China's CPI turned from a 0.1% decline to a 0.4% increase month - on - month, and was flat year - on - year. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months. PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous month [2]. 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On 8/14 at 20:30, US July PPI and core PPI data will be released; on 8/15 at 10:00, China's July industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, social consumer goods retail sales, and real estate data will be released [3]

RT Crypto Rover (@rovercrc)💥 BREAKING:🇺🇸 IMPORTANT US ECONOMIC DATA TODAY.- Core PPI: 0% previous vs 0.2% expected- US Initial Jobless Claims: 226K previous vs 228K expectedVOLATILITY INCOMING! https://t.co/gHF5g2mj9b ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating of treasury bond futures is "oscillation" [1] Report's Core View - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures rebounded after opening lower and stopped falling in the short - term. The short - term treasury bond futures may oscillate. Traders are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Summary According to Related Content Market Performance - On Wednesday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower and fluctuated upward throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.10%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.03% [1] - On Wednesday, the Wande All - A stock index rose unilaterally in the morning and fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon. Treasury bond futures did not show a seesaw effect with the stock index. After two consecutive days of corrections on Monday and Tuesday, treasury bond futures opened lower and then rebounded [2] Important Information Open Market - On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 138.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan [1] Money Market - On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market was basically flat compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.45%, compared with 1.44% in the previous trading day [1] Cash Bond Market - On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 1.00 BP to 1.40%, the 5 - year decreased by 0.46 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year decreased by 0.09 BP to 1.73%, and the 30 - year increased by 0.30 BP to 2.02% [1] Social Financing and Credit Data in July - The social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a market expectation of 1.41 trillion yuan, 389.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The net financing of government bonds increased by 1.244 trillion yuan, 555.9 billion yuan more year - on - year; the RMB loans issued to the real economy decreased by 426.3 billion yuan, 345.5 billion yuan more year - on - year; the net financing of corporate bonds was 279.1 billion yuan, 75.5 billion yuan more year - on - year; the undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 163.9 billion yuan, 56.4 billion yuan more year - on - year. The RMB loans in the credit caliber decreased by 50 billion yuan, with a market expectation of a 15 - billion - yuan decrease, 310 billion yuan more year - on - year [1] - Corporate medium - and long - term loans decreased by 260 billion yuan, 390 billion yuan more than the same period last year; corporate short - term loans decreased by 550 billion yuan, the same as the decrease in the same period last year; corporate bill financing increased by 871.1 billion yuan, 312.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Resident short - term loans decreased by 382.7 billion yuan, 167.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year; resident medium - and long - term loans decreased by 110 billion yuan, 120 billion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - At the end of July, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%, with a market expectation of 8.3% and 8.3% at the end of June. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, with a market expectation of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 4.6% in June [1] Other Economic Data - China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year in July, better than the market forecast of 5.8% and the previous value of 5.9%. It is expected that China's export growth rate will probably decline in the future [2] - China's CPI was flat year - on - year in July, slightly exceeding the market expectation of a 0.1% decrease; the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of a 3.4% decrease. The overall price level continued to hover at a low level [2] - On August 12, it was announced that China and the US would suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days from August 12, 2025, which is beneficial for stabilizing bilateral trade and market confidence [2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the stage high on October 8, 2024. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has significantly rebounded for three consecutive trading days, exceeding 2 trillion yuan for the first time since March. Most industry sectors rose, with the communication sector strengthening significantly and the banking sector leading the decline. Domestically, the economic fundamentals showed that the CPI turned from a decline to an increase in July, and the core CPI increase has expanded for three consecutive months. The month-on-month decline of PPI narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, and the year-on-year decline remained the same as last month, with the PPI-CPI scissors gap narrowing slightly. The stabilization of domestic demand and the effectiveness of industrial policies have driven the month-on-month growth of PPI and CPI. In terms of sentiment, S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" and the outlook at "stable". At the individual stock level, the net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices have further increased based on the semi-annual reports of listed companies disclosed so far. In terms of funds, northbound capital transactions have been continuously active, and QFII has further increased its positions in A-share listed companies. Overall, the stabilization of prices has a repairing effect on corporate profits and investment confidence. Currently, the market focus has shifted to the semi-annual reports of listed companies. The net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices are all showing positive growth, and the improvement of the fundamentals of some listed companies supports the stock market. However, one must be vigilant against the drag on the index performance caused by the decline in the profits of companies that have not yet released their financial reports. At the same time, with the high valuation of US stocks, A-shares with relatively reasonable valuations continue to attract foreign capital inflows, injecting incremental funds into the market. Finally, S&P's attitude towards China's sovereign credit rating has also strengthened market confidence. Strategically, it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) latest price is 4170.8, up 42.2; IF sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 4181.2, up 40.0. IH main contract (2509) latest price is 2818.8, up 9.8; IH sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 2818.0, up 9.2. IC main contract (2509) latest price is 6451.8, up 113.0; IC sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 6505.8, up 100.6. IM main contract (2509) latest price is 7001.8, up 122.0; IM sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 7064.2, up 113.4. Various spreads and differences between different contracts also showed corresponding changes [2]. 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net positions are -28,998.00, up 1645.0; IH top 20 net positions are -17,875.00, up 415.0; IC top 20 net positions are -16,519.00, up 255.0; IM top 20 net positions are -55,549.00, up 3154.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Price - CSI 300 is 4176.58, up 32.8; SSE 50 is 2812.98, up 6.0; CSI 500 is 6508.10, up 89.9; CSI 1000 is 7064.33, up 100.7. A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) is 21,752.11, up 2700.00; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 20,345.33, up 83.35. Northbound trading total (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 2365.34, up 95.34 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) changed from -376.99 to -70.99. The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) is 50.39, up 11.94. Shibor (daily, %) is 1.315, unchanged. IO at-the-money call option closing price (2508) is 11.60, up 6.20; IO at-the-money call option implied volatility (%) is 13.16, up 0.18. IO at-the-money put option closing price (2508) is 31.40, down 32.40; IO at-the-money put option implied volatility (%) is 13.16, down 0.34 [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A-shares score is 6.10, up 1.00; technical aspect score is 5.00, up 1.20; capital aspect score is 7.20, up 0.80 [2] 4. Key Data to be Focused on - China's July financial data (to be determined); US July PPI and core PPI on August 14 at 20:30; China's July industrial added value above designated size, fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, and real estate data on August 15 at 10:00 [3]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In July, Guangdong's CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to June; month-on-month, it shifted from a decrease of 0.2% in June to an increase of 0.5% [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from June [1] - Food prices fell by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI decline, while non-food prices decreased by 0.1%, impacting the CPI by about 0.07 percentage points [2] Group 2: Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI) Analysis - The PPI in Guangdong decreased by 2.0% year-on-year in July, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to June; month-on-month, it fell by 0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [1][4] - The average PPI for January to July showed a decrease of 1.4%, while the Industrial Producer Purchase Price Index (IPI) fell by 2.8% [1] - In the PPI survey, 38 major industries showed 8 increases, 29 decreases, and 1 stable, with an industry increase rate of 21.1%, down by 7.8 percentage points from June [4][5] Group 3: Sector-Specific Price Movements - Significant price changes were noted in various sectors, with educational and sports equipment manufacturing prices rising by 12.5%, while black metal mining and related industries saw declines of 18.0% and 12.0%, respectively [4] - The automotive manufacturing sector experienced a 1.6% price drop, influenced by the decline in fuel vehicle prices due to competition from the new energy vehicle market [5]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December increased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable consumption market overall [5] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [7]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a marginal improvement in consumer prices [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest increase in nearly 14 months, reflecting a gradual recovery in consumer demand [3][4] CPI Analysis - The CPI's year-on-year increase was influenced by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices and rising domestic fuel prices due to international oil price fluctuations [2] - The year-on-year decline in industrial consumer goods prices narrowed from 1.0% to 0.5%, reducing the downward pressure on CPI by approximately 0.18 percentage points [2] - Food prices decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with specific items like freshwater fish and fresh vegetables seeing price increases [3] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month, with some industries showing signs of price stabilization and recovery [5] - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points, but macroeconomic policies have improved supply-demand relationships in certain sectors [5][6] - Prices in the automotive manufacturing sector, including gasoline and new energy vehicles, showed a narrowing decline, indicating potential recovery in these industries [5][6] Policy Impact - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies has led to improvements in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, addressing supply-demand issues and supporting price trends [4] - The ongoing exit of outdated production capacity and the enhancement of product quality are expected to contribute to a gradual price recovery in the second half of the year [6]