Core Viewpoint - Citigroup forecasts that the Chinese yuan (CNY) will appreciate against the US dollar (USD) to 6.8 by the end of the year, with potential fluctuations in the interim [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Currency Forecast - Citigroup economists, including Xiangrong Yu, predict that the CNY/USD exchange rate will rise to 6.8 within the next 6-12 months, with expected fluctuations around 6.9 in the next three months [1] Volatility and Management - The bank indicates that the volatility of the yuan may increase by 2026, but the overall trend is expected to be appreciation [1] - Citigroup suggests that the central bank may have partially influenced the exchange rate to stabilize expectations amid external fluctuations, and this strategy may no longer be necessary by 2026, potentially leading to a "managed appreciation" [1] Internationalization and Trade Tensions - The goals of advancing the internationalization of the yuan and easing trade tensions are seen as supportive factors for the yuan's strength [1]

中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2026年1月6日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元 对人民币7.0173元，1欧元对人民币8.1919元，100日元对人民币4.4664元，1港元对人民币0.90161元，1 英镑对人民币9.4562元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6862元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0347元，1新加坡元对人 民币5.4518元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8224元，1加拿大元对人民币5.0742元，人民币1元对1.1432澳门 元，人民币1元对0.58055马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.6050俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.3405南非兰 特，人民币1元对207.19韩元，人民币1元对0.52584阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53689沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对46.8828匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51426波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9128丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.3136瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4373挪威克朗，人民币1元对6.16000土耳其里拉，人民币1元对 2.5606墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.4818泰铢。 1月6日，人民币兑美元中间价上调57个基点，报7.0 ...

同日，在岸人民币、离岸人民币对美元汇率延续升值走势。截至当日9时40分，在岸人民币对美元报 6.9827，日内升值幅度为0.08%；离岸人民币对美元报6.9794，日内升值幅度为0.05%。 北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）1月6日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人 民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.0173元，相较前一交易日中间价7.0230元，调升57基点。 ...

编辑：付健青 1月6日人民币对美元中间价报7.0173 上调57个基点 中新网1月6日电 据中国外汇交易中心网站消息，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年1月 6日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元对人民币7.0173元，上调57个基点。 图片来源：中国外汇交易中心网站截图 来源：中国新闻网 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 ...

(责任编辑：田云绯) 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2026年1月6日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1 美元对人民币7.0173元，1欧元对人民币8.1919元，100日元对人民币4.4664元，1港元对人民币0.90161 元，1英镑对人民币9.4562元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6862元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0347元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.4518元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8224元，1加拿大元对人民币5.0742元，人民币1元对1.1432 澳门元，人民币1元对0.58055马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.6050俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.3405南 非兰特，人民币1元对207.19韩元，人民币1元对0.52584阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53689沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对46.8828匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51426波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9128丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3136瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4373挪威克朗，人民币1元对6.16000土耳其里拉，人民币1 元对2.5606墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.4818泰铢。 中国经济网北京1月6日讯 来自 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (RMB) has reversed its depreciation trend against the US Dollar, moving towards a sustained appreciation trajectory by the end of 2025, despite an estimated average exchange rate for the year remaining lower than the previous year [1][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB/USD exchange rate reached a low of 7.2034 in April 2025, marking the lowest point since the depreciation cycle began in 2022, before recovering to 7.0288 by December 31, 2025 [1][5]. - The offshore RMB (CNH) showed a more rapid appreciation, breaking the 7 mark, with a closing rate of 6.9757 on December 31, 2025, reflecting a cumulative increase of approximately 3600 points or over 4.93% for the year [1][3]. Group 2: Economic and Military Influences - The reversal in the RMB's depreciation is attributed to a combination of China's economic and technological strength, alongside a significant rise in expectations regarding China's military capabilities, which coincided with key military events [3][7]. - The RMB's depreciation from 2022 to 2024 was influenced by external factors, including the US's "new cold war" policies and sanctions, which negatively impacted China's technology sector and led to capital outflows [7][8]. Group 3: Trade Surplus and Economic Fundamentals - China's trade surplus has remained robust, with a record cumulative trade surplus of $1.0758 trillion by November 2025, supporting the RMB's appreciation [9]. - The RMB's exchange rate recovery is underpinned by strong export performance and a stable trade balance, which have been crucial in shaping the supply-demand dynamics in the foreign exchange market [9][10]. Group 4: Key Events and Market Reactions - Significant events, such as the release of the DeepSeek model and military displays during the September 3rd parade, have shifted market perceptions and expectations regarding China's technological and military capabilities, further influencing the RMB's valuation [11][15]. - The US's strategic shift in its national security approach, as outlined in the new National Security Strategy report, has altered global perceptions of China's security environment, contributing to the RMB's appreciation [16].

Group 1: Relationship Between RMB and Hong Kong Stocks - Since 2016, there has been a significant positive correlation between the RMB and Hong Kong stocks, with a negative correlation coefficient of -0.54 between the Hong Kong stock index and the USD/RMB exchange rate[4] - When the RMB appreciates by more than 1.5% in a month, the Hang Seng Index has a 93.5% probability of rising, but since November 13, 2025, the RMB appreciated by 1.9% while the Hang Seng Index fell by 4.8%[5] - This divergence is only the third occurrence of such a phenomenon since 2016, indicating a potential shift in the typical relationship between currency and stock performance[6] Group 2: Factors Affecting Stock Performance - Weak performance in key sectors of the Hong Kong stock market has limited the positive impact of RMB appreciation on stock earnings, with the Hang Seng Index's future 12-month EPS continuously declining since Q4 2025[6] - The real estate and energy sectors have particularly underperformed, contributing to the overall weakness in the Hong Kong stock market despite RMB appreciation[6] - The market has been characterized by profit-taking and low trading volumes, which have restricted the immediate positive feedback from favorable factors such as currency appreciation[6] Group 3: Future Outlook - As earnings improve and foreign capital allocation effects recover, the relationship between the Hong Kong stock market and the RMB may revert to a positive correlation[7] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from a recovery in earnings and a potential increase in foreign investment, particularly if the Producer Price Index (PPI) shows signs of improvement[7] - The RMB's resilience is anticipated to continue into 2026, supported by nominal GDP recovery and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S.[7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) continues to appreciate against the US Dollar (USD), reaching a new high since mid-May 2023, with the closing exchange rate at 6.9806 on January 5, 2026, marking an increase of 84 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - On January 5, the CNY/USD exchange rate peaked at 6.9770, the highest since May 2023, and closed at 6.9806, up 84 basis points from the previous day [1]. - The central parity rate for CNY against USD was reported at 7.0230, an increase of 58 basis points [2]. Economic Context - The USD index strengthened for the second consecutive trading day, reaching a high of 98.7984 on January 5, amid rising geopolitical risks [3]. - The chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, Wen Bin, anticipates that the CNY will maintain a stable two-way fluctuation pattern in January, despite the USD's recent stabilization [3]. - The US economy shows resilience, with a third-quarter GDP growth rate of 4.3%, up from 3.8% in the second quarter, indicating potential for a gradual increase in non-farm employment [3]. Future Outlook - Seasonal demand for currency settlement in January may support further appreciation of the CNY, although the central parity rate is diverging towards depreciation compared to the closing spot rate, suggesting some cyclical behavior in the forex market [4]. - Overall, while the CNY may exhibit a strong performance in January, it is expected to fluctuate within the 6.9-7 range, reflecting the regulatory stance to maintain stability in the exchange rate [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has experienced a significant appreciation against the US dollar, with the offshore yuan breaking the 7.0 mark for the first time in 15 months, driven by a weakening dollar and improved trade dynamics between China and the US [2][3][4]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of December 31, 2025, the US dollar index fell by 9.04%, while the onshore and offshore yuan appreciated by approximately 4.43% and 5.18%, respectively [2][4][26]. - The yuan's exchange rate fluctuated around the 7.0 mark, with the offshore yuan reaching a high of 6.9988 on December 26, 2025, marking the highest level since September 2024 [2][9][42]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) adjusted the yuan's central parity rate to 7.023, an increase of 58 basis points from the previous trading day [2][35]. Trade Surplus and Currency Demand - China's trade surplus reached a record $1.08 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, providing a solid foundation for the yuan's strength [5][18][49]. - There has been a notable increase in currency settlement demand from export enterprises, particularly as the yuan approached the 7.0 level, leading to a surge in consultations regarding exchange rates [3][49]. Central Bank's Role - The PBOC has actively managed the yuan's exchange rate to prevent excessive appreciation that could harm export profits, utilizing tools such as the counter-cyclical factor and offshore central bank bills [4][47]. - The central bank's intervention strategy has shifted from preventing depreciation to controlling appreciation, indicating a more nuanced approach to managing market expectations [47][50]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts predict a "moderate bullish, two-way fluctuation" for the yuan in 2026, with expectations that the exchange rate will gradually rise to a range of 6.80-7.00 [40][27]. - The narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the US, alongside potential concentrated currency settlements by enterprises, is expected to support the yuan's appreciation [27][40].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月5日，在岸人民币兑美元收盘报6.9806，较上一交易日上涨84点。 ...