受特朗普关税消息影响，上周五港A美集体下挫。港股三大指数再度大幅低开，恒指跌2.5%，国指跌 2.39%，恒生科技指数跌2.43%。盘面上，大型科技股集体低开，其中，小米跌4.5%，阿里巴巴跌近 4%，腾讯、美团、快手、京东均跌超3%，百度跌2.3%，惟网易涨超3%；生物医药股、苹果概念股、 内险股、光伏股、锂电池股、中资券商股、内房股、钢铁股、水务股、汽车股等纷纷下跌，其中，高伟 电子跌超10%，君实生物跌超9%，蓝思科技跌超7%，中国财险跌6%，优必选、信义光能、宁德时代跌 超5%。另一方面，早盘现货黄金一度冲上4060美元/盎司再创历史新高，黄金股逆势走强，紫金黄金国 际涨超4%，山东黄金、赤峰黄金涨超3%，第三季经调整溢利4.44亿按年增4%，思摩尔逆势高开4.3%。 (格隆汇) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate mainly due to the resonance of macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory build - up, along with potential uncertainties from Indonesian news [1]. - The stainless - steel price is likely to fluctuate weakly next week as macro and real - world factors exert pressure, and while cost restricts its elasticity, the cost marginally declines [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory build - up put pressure on the nickel market. Trade war escalation and expected new pure - nickel production in the second half of the year increase supply, while alloy use of nickel - iron instead of nickel plates suppresses demand. Although non - standard nickel fundamentals improve marginally, the inventory build - up problem in refined nickel remains. Indonesian news may increase market concerns about nickel - ore supply governance, and the nickel - ore premium shows signs of stabilization and a slight increase [1]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 5,190 tons to 45,630 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 7,254 tons to 237,378 tons [5]. Stainless - Steel Market Analysis - **Fundamentals**: The demand for stainless steel is suppressed by tariffs and weak post - real - estate cycle consumption. The overall apparent demand growth rate has converged. The trade - war resurgence may pressure long - term demand. Supply is expected to increase slightly, but actual production may fall short of expectations. The real - world fundamentals lack upward drivers due to significant holiday inventory build - up, high upstream inventory, and weak peak - season demand. Cost provides a bottom - support, but short - term nickel - iron price drops may lead to cost adjustments [2]. - **Inventory**: In September, SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.532 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%. Steel Union's stainless - steel social inventory was 1.054 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 8% [5]. New Energy Market Inventory - On October 10, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by +1, - 1, and 0 months - on - month to 5, 9, and 7 days respectively. On September 26, the precursor inventory changed by - 0.6 months - on - month to 14.0 days. On October 9, the ternary material inventory changed by - 0.1 months - on - month to 7.1 days [5]. Market News - In September, due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over part of the PT WedaBav Nickel mine. The Indonesian government also sanctioned 190 mining companies for non - payment of reclamation deposits. The Indonesian government requires companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget online from October 1 to November 15 [6][7]. - Trump announced on October 10 that he may impose an additional 100% tariff on China starting from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [7]. Futures Research Data - **Prices and Volumes**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,180, down 2,300; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,780, down 80. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 159,070, an increase of 28,206; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 160,027, a decrease of 17,063 [9]. - **Industry Chain Data**: Data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium, nickel - bean premium, and various product price spreads and import profits are provided [9].

Group 1 - Analysts expect a 7.4% profit growth for US stocks in Q3, with investors showing zero tolerance for companies that fail to meet expectations [2][3] - The S&P 500 index has risen 11% year-to-date, driven partly by the AI boom, and companies need to deliver strong performance to justify a nearly 32% increase since April [3] - Concerns over trade tensions have resurfaced, particularly following Trump's recent comments on tariffs, which could impact corporate profits [6] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank indicated that without tariff impacts, S&P 500 profit growth could have been one percentage point higher [6] - Major US banks, including JPMorgan Chase, will kick off the earnings season, with tech giants expected to be in focus later this month [6] - Investors are anticipated to respond more critically to any earnings misses or misstatements, reflecting a shift in tolerance levels [6] Group 3 - Global capital expenditure is projected to grow by 67% to $375 billion, with AI investments remaining strong despite trade uncertainties [8] - If companies reduce AI spending, chipmakers like Nvidia and other stocks benefiting from the AI trend may face significant declines [8] - The telecommunications, power generation, and grid operation sectors in Europe could be the biggest losers from a potential decline in US spending on AI [10] Group 4 - Investors are increasingly concerned about employment data, especially amid government shutdowns and the absence of key labor market statistics [11] - Rapid layoffs could heighten fears of weak consumer spending, affecting various sectors including retail and restaurants [11] - A weaker dollar in Q3 has benefited many US companies by making their products more competitive abroad, while European exporters may face headwinds due to a strong euro [12]

在贸易紧张局势再次升温、AI泡沫担忧暗流涌动的背景下，美国企业需要交出强劲业绩来证明标普500指数自4月低点以来近32%涨幅的合理性。 华尔街将关注一系列潜在棘手问题，从AI支出的持续性到关税上调对企业利润的影响。 特朗普关于关税的最新言论，导致贸易担忧重新成为市场焦点。德意志银行表示，如果没有关税影响，标普500三季度盈利增长本可再高出一个百 分点。 本轮财报季，打头阵的是摩根大通等大型美国银行，下周公布最新财报，科技巨头将在本月晚些时候成为关注焦点。CFRA首席投资策略师Sam Stovall表示： 标普500指数今年迄今上涨11%，部分受人工智能热潮推动，分析师预计美股第三季度利润增长7.4%，投资者对未能达标的企业将"毫不宽容"。 美股三季报下周揭开帷幕，史诗级涨幅已把预期推至高位，财报季成了"兑现时刻"。 经过数月的高关税影响，三季度财报预计将显示其对企业的冲击。德意志银行分析显示，若无关税影响，标普500三季度盈利增长本可高出一个百 分点。 美国银行首席投资官Eric Freedman指出，虽然投资者在前几个季度对企业延迟关税指引给予了"通行证"，但这次不太可能如此宽容。"我们预计企 业会提供更多 ...

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Tensions - Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, 2025, in response to China's rare earth export controls[1] - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection will impose port fees on Chinese-owned vessels starting October 14, 2025[1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce added several Chinese entities to the export control list on October 8, 2025[1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The tariff threat is seen as a bargaining chip rather than a definitive action, with a low probability of the 100% tariff being implemented[2] - Both countries are likely to extend export controls to more sectors, with the U.S. potentially adding more Chinese companies to the control list[2] - Trump's immediate goal is to secure more direct investments and benefits for U.S. farmers, particularly in agricultural exports to China[2] Group 3: Economic Impact - If the 100% tariff is fully implemented, it could reduce China's exports by approximately 11.3 percentage points and increase U.S. inflation by about 3.2 percentage points[3] - The report suggests that the actual impact may be less severe due to factors like re-exports and delays in tariff transmission[3] Group 4: Market Reactions - Increased tariff risks may lead to heightened volatility in equity markets, with potential adjustments of 10-20% expected[2] - Despite short-term risks, the long-term outlook for equity assets remains cautiously optimistic as Trump may seek to stabilize the situation[2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising prices of everyday goods in the U.S. due to tariffs, highlighting a shift in public sentiment against tariffs as they directly impact consumer costs [1][18]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Consumer Goods - The increase in tariffs has led to higher costs for products like canned beer, as the price of aluminum and steel has risen, affecting production costs [5][7]. - A significant portion of the American public, now understanding the implications of tariffs, recognizes that these costs ultimately fall on consumers rather than foreign entities [5][11]. Group 2: Political Response and Public Sentiment - Democratic leaders, including Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro, are openly opposing tariffs, framing them as a direct tax on consumers [3][15]. - Polling data indicates that two-thirds of Americans now comprehend the relationship between tariffs and increased prices, marking a notable shift in political discourse [5][18]. Group 3: Historical Context and Political Dynamics - The article reflects on the evolution of the Democratic Party's stance on trade, noting a significant shift from support for free trade to a more protectionist approach in response to public sentiment [11][17]. - The current political climate suggests that both major parties must address consumer concerns about rising prices to maintain public support [17][18].

Core Insights - Thailand's exports reached $27.7 billion in August, marking a 5.8% increase and continuing a growth streak for 14 consecutive months [1] - For the first eight months of the year, exports grew by 13.3%, excluding oil, gold, and military equipment [1] - The growth rate has slowed due to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the United States, leading to a decrease in imports by most importers [1] Export Performance - Agricultural and processed agricultural products saw a decline of 11%, while industrial products increased by 11% [1] - Exports to the United States grew by 13%, continuing a 23-month growth trend, primarily driven by computers and related equipment, telecommunications devices, and electrical transformers [1] - Exports to China increased by 6%, with growth mainly in computers, circuit boards, and copper products, while fruits, chemicals, and plastic pellets experienced declines [1] Future Outlook - The overall export growth is expected to continue for the year, despite concerns about tariffs easing as the U.S. has reached lower reciprocal tariff rates with several countries [1] - Thailand's tariff levels are comparable to those of other countries in the region, but previous preventive imports and current weak demand are anticipated to slow export growth [1] - Ongoing border trade barriers, accelerated rice exports from India, a slowing U.S. economy, and rapid appreciation of the Thai baht are expected to exert pressure on Thailand's exports this year [1] - The Thai Ministry of Commerce plans to expedite trade agreement negotiations and explore new export markets to ensure continued export growth [1]

不跌就加关税，跌到位关税就取消，这打法好像还真无解了？ ...

02 平衡艺术 威廉姆斯的降息立场并非无条件，而是建立在精细的风险平衡基础上。 他明确指出，"如果通胀再度大幅高于2%，而我们未能将其拉回目标区间，那将对经济以及我们的公信力造成严重损害。" 然而，这位美联储副主席同样担忧就业市场风险。 美联储内部围绕利率政策的激烈博弈正迎来一位关键人物的表态。 美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯近日公开表示，鉴于劳动力市场进一步降温的风险，他支持今年内继续降息。 这一表态立刻引发市场广泛关注，作为联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）拥有永久投票权的副主席，威廉姆斯的观点一直被视作美联储政策的重要风向标。 01 关键支持 在最近接受媒体采访时，威廉姆斯明确表达了他的货币政策立场。 "我的个人观点是，今年政策利率确实会进一步下调，但具体幅度仍需视数据而定。"他这样对记者表示。 威廉姆斯在美联储内部地位举足轻重，他的言论往往被视为重要的政策前瞻指引。 在9月美联储降息25个基点后，市场一直渴望了解央行未来的利率路径。 他强调，美联储需要"以一种尽可能减少劳动力市场急剧降温风险的方式来实现这一目标。" 这种平衡艺术体现了美联储当前面临的双重任务——既要遏制通胀，又要保护就业。 03 ...

Market Reaction - Cryptocurrency prices experienced a significant decline, with Bitcoin falling below $119,000 for the first time since October 2, trading at $119,028, down 1.7% on the day [1] - Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum and Solana, saw sharper declines, with both down nearly 5% in the last hour, priced at $4,107 and $211 respectively [1] Liquidation Events - The crypto market faced a surge in liquidations, with CoinGlass reporting $459 million worth of liquidations in the last hour, predominantly from long positions [2] - Over the past 24 hours, nearly $773 million worth of positions have been liquidated [2] Broader Market Impact - The stock market indices also reflected a downturn, with the Nasdaq down 1.77%, the S&P 500 down 1.25%, and the Dow decreasing by 0.83% [2] Political Context - President Trump indicated a potential increase in tariffs on Chinese products, suggesting that this policy could have long-term benefits for the U.S. [3]