Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a new phase of gradual easing by cutting interest rates by a quarter-point, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25% [1][2]. Economic Projections - Inflation is projected to rise to 3.1%, unchanged from previous estimates, while GDP growth has been upgraded to 1.6% from 1.4% [5]. - The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.5%, up from the current rate of 4.3% [7]. Fed's Dual Mandate - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management cut," indicating a shift in focus towards protecting jobs rather than solely combating inflation [2][8]. - The FOMC statement highlighted that downside risks to employment have risen, with 11 out of 12 Fed voters supporting the rate cut [3]. Dot Plot Analysis - The updated dot plot suggests approximately two more quarter-point cuts by the end of the year, but there is significant inconsistency in the forecasts among Fed members [4][10]. - Six members opposed the cut, indicating a hawkish sentiment within the committee [5]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, market reactions were mixed, with the Dow up about 0.50%, the S&P flat, and the Nasdaq down modestly, reflecting uncertainty among investors [9][10]. - The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.076%, and the dollar strengthened by about 0.3% [10]. Future Outlook - The Fed's future actions will depend on incoming economic data, particularly the next CPI and PCE reports, which will be critical for the market's bullish case [10][11]. - There is a belief that if inflation stabilizes or decreases while job losses remain moderate, the Fed may proceed with additional rate cuts as indicated in the dot plot [11][15].

人民财讯9月18日电，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，失业率仍处于低位，但已有所上升；通胀最近有所上 升，仍略微偏高。 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The median forecast from the Federal Reserve indicates a further rate cut of 50 basis points by 2025 [1] - There is a divergence in opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts, with varying views on the extent and timing of potential reductions [1] Summary by Categories Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points is in line with market expectations [1] - The median prediction suggests a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by 2025, with differing opinions among officials on the number and magnitude of future cuts [1] Economic Forecasts - The Federal Reserve maintained its inflation and unemployment rate forecasts for the year, projecting a median inflation rate of 3% and an unemployment rate of 4.5% [1] - Economic growth expectations have been revised upward from 1.4% to 1.6% for the year [1] Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, the DXY dollar index experienced a sharp decline, while non-USD currencies rose collectively [1] - Spot gold prices surged, surpassing $3700 per ounce, and U.S. stock markets initially rose before retreating, indicating increased bets on at least one more rate cut this year [1]

Economic Growth Expectations - The FOMC members project a median GDP growth of 1.6% for 2025, 1.4% for 2026, and 1.8% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median growth rate of 1.8% [2] - The central tendency for 2025 GDP growth is between 1.4% and 1.7%, with a range of 1.3% to 2.0% [2] Unemployment Rate Projections - The median unemployment rate is forecasted to be 4.5% for both 2025 and 2026, 4.3% for 2027, and 4.2% for 2028, with a long-term median of 4.0% [3] - The central tendency for 2025 unemployment rate is between 4.4% and 4.5%, with a range of 4.2% to 4.6% [3] Inflation Trends - The median forecast for the PCE price index year-on-year growth is 3.0% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028, with a long-term median of 2.0% [4] - The core PCE inflation forecast (excluding food and energy) is 3.1% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028 [4] Interest Rate Path - The median forecast for the federal funds rate is 3.6% at the end of 2025, 3.4% for 2026, and 3.1% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median of 3.0% [5] - The central tendency for the 2025 interest rate is between 3.6% and 4.1%, with a range of 2.9% to 4.4% [5] Comparison with Previous Forecasts - Compared to the June 2025 forecast, the median predictions for GDP growth, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate remain unchanged, indicating stable assessments by FOMC members [6] Uncertainty and Risk Assessment - FOMC members assess that the uncertainty regarding GDP growth and inflation for 2025 is "similar to or higher than" the past 20 years [7] - Some members view the risks for GDP growth and unemployment as "roughly balanced," while inflation risks are seen as "roughly balanced" or "tilted upward" [7]

like a. >> Big I can't tell you how excited I am. >> When was the last time we talked about the dynamics.>> I'm in. I'm I'm on the edge of my seat. >> Exactly.All right. Let's talk more about it. Joining us is Claudia Sardine, New Century Advisors chief economist and a former fed economist.Claudia, that that will be interesting, right. We'll see who dissents. We'll see how divergent the dot plots are.What are you looking for. >> Yeah. And I want to underscore that even in normal times, like we would expect ...

Fed expected to cut rates for the first time this year later this afternoon. Here with us now at Post 9 is former Goldman Sachs president, current IBM vice chair Gary Conn. Gary also served as the director of the National Economic Council during President Trump's first term.Welcome back. >> Thanks for having >> great to have you, especially on a day like today. Is there scope for the market to be disappointed if if Powell isn't dovish enough to meet all their great expectations of more cuts.>> Look, there's ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Trump's tariff policy has not improved the daily lives of American citizens, who are bearing the consequences of these policies [1][3][36] - Many Americans are facing increased difficulties in finding jobs, with a significant drop in new employment numbers reported by the Labor Department [5][7][10] - The article discusses the rise in functional unemployment, where individuals are employed but unable to afford basic living costs, indicating a hidden economic issue [12][19] Group 2 - The article notes a significant increase in consumer prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 2.9% in August, impacting the affordability of everyday goods [21][25] - It mentions that many Americans are relying on credit cards to manage their expenses, leading to record-high credit card debt and overdue payments [30][34] - Despite the struggles of ordinary Americans, the stock market has been performing well, with major indices reaching new highs, creating a disconnect between the stock market and the economic realities faced by the populace [32][36]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The consensus in the market anticipates a rate cut in September, but the policy dynamics remain complex due to labor market cooling and persistent inflation concerns[4] - The Federal Reserve is likely to provide guidance on future easing through the dot plot and economic forecasts, rather than committing to a clear rate path[5] - The dot plot is expected to shift downward with increased dispersion, but the median may not indicate the market's expectation of three rate cuts[5] Group 2: Economic Forecasts and Labor Market Insights - Economic growth forecasts for 2025 are likely to be slightly revised down due to weaker-than-expected labor market data and significant downward revisions in non-farm payrolls[5] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slowly, with most officials maintaining a judgment of two rate cuts within the year[5] - The core PCE inflation forecast may be slightly adjusted downwards compared to June's pessimistic outlook, reflecting moderate price transmission from tariffs[5] Group 3: Risks and Market Reactions - The market is currently pricing in three rate cuts within the year, which may lead to increased sensitivity to data fluctuations[9] - Political pressures and the potential for a Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality could significantly impact inflation and monetary policy decisions[8] - The labor market's deterioration rate and inflation trends will be critical indicators for the Federal Reserve's future actions[8]

#数据 国家统计局发布8月份分年龄组失业率数据：全国城镇不包含在校生的16-24岁劳动力失业率为18.9%，较上月上升1.1个百分点。（2023年12月数据公布以来最高）全国城镇不包含在校生的25-29岁劳动力失业率为7.2%，上升0.3个百分点。全国城镇不包含在校生的30-59岁劳动力失业率为3.9%，持平。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#数据 国家统计局发布7月份分年龄组失业率数据：全国城镇不包含在校生的16-24岁劳动力失业率为17.8%，较上月上升3.3个百分点。全国城镇不包含在校生的25-29岁劳动力失业率为6.9%，上升0.2个百分点。全国城镇不包含在校生的30-59岁劳动力失业率为3.9%，下降0.1百分点。 https://t.co/yaFRzkARbN ...

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in Brazil decreased to 5.6% in July, down from 5.8%, marking the lowest level since records began in 2012 [1] - The number of unemployed individuals fell to 6.1 million, the lowest since the end of 2013, while the employment population reached a record 102.4 million [1] - The employment-to-population ratio remained stable at a historical high of 58.8%, indicating consistent labor force participation [1] Group 2 - The agriculture sector added 206,000 jobs, the information and professional services sector added 260,000 jobs, and public administration, education, healthcare, and social services added 522,000 jobs, driving the employment growth [1] - The average real income in July increased by 1.3% year-on-year, reaching 3,484 Brazilian Reais, indicating improvements in the quality of the labor market [1]