顶着"太迟先生"的骂名，鲍威尔连续第四次按兵不动。点阵图仍暗示今年降息两次，市场聚焦9月的行动窗口……一图读懂2025 年6月美联储利率决议 财料 0% 2018 2019 2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 2024 202 2018 联邦基金利率变化值(%) 0.9 0.6 0.3 0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 2018 2018 2019 2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 2024 202 02|声明关键内容 01 声明总结 03 | 经济预期 ·关键指标预期 | | | 2025年 | 2026年 | 2027年 | 长期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GDP增速 | 最新预期 | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | | | 上次预期 | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | | 失业率 | 最新预期 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | | | 上次预期 | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | | PCE ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：4.2%的失业率位于可持续的长期失业率预估的低端。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the supply and demand dynamics in the labor market are keeping the unemployment rate at a reasonable level [1] Group 1 - The labor market's supply and demand relationship is a key factor in maintaining a stable unemployment rate [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：失业率一直保持在较窄的范围内，且处于较低水平。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that unusual fluctuations in net exports complicate GDP measurements [1] Group 2 - Unemployment rate projections for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4% respectively, with slight increases from previous estimates [4] - Core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1% respectively, indicating upward revisions [4] - Federal funds rate projections for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.9%, 3.6%, and 3.4% respectively, with increases noted for 2026 and 2027 [4]

Economic Forecasts - The GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8% respectively, with a long-term forecast also at 1.8% [2] - The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5% in 2025 and 2026, slightly decreasing to 4.4% in 2027, with a long-term expectation of 4.2% [2] - PCE inflation is forecasted at 3.0% for 2025, decreasing to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with a long-term target of 2.0% [2] - Core PCE inflation is anticipated to be 3.1% in 2025, dropping to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with a long-term goal of 2.0% [2] - The federal funds rate is projected to be 3.9% in 2025, 3.6% in 2026, and 3.4% in 2027, with a long-term expectation of 3.0% [2]

美联诸FOMC声明未提及失业率和通胀上升的风险。 ...

美联储：预计2025年失业率为4.5%，3月份预计为4.4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is signaling a long-term intention to maintain interest rates unchanged, with no immediate rate cuts expected, as economic conditions remain stable and uncertain factors persist [2][3]. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slow cooling, with no immediate triggers for the Federal Reserve to intervene, despite concerns over tariffs and their impact on inflation [3][4]. - The unemployment rate has remained stable for three consecutive months, which allows the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high as a measure against potential inflation [3][5]. Inflation and Interest Rates - Recent inflation data has not raised alarms, with core inflation in May remaining below expectations for the fourth consecutive month, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury prices [3][6]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may not lower borrowing costs until at least September, with traders betting on multiple rate cuts later in the year [2][3]. Federal Reserve Predictions - Upcoming economic and interest rate forecasts are expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's thinking, particularly following President Trump's tariff announcements [4][5]. - Analysts note a wide range of possibilities in the Federal Reserve's predictions, with some suggesting that a significant increase in the unemployment rate could lead to rate cuts before the fourth quarter [5][6]. Policy Uncertainty - Federal Reserve officials are considering the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies, which may lead them to maintain their current forecasts without significant changes [7][8]. - The timing of the Federal Reserve's next actions will depend on how long Trump's policies take to reflect in economic data and the strength of recession concerns that arise from these data [7][8].

智通财经6月18日电，国家统计局发布5月份分年龄组失业率数据。5月份，全国城镇不包含在校生的16- 24岁劳动力失业率为14.9%，不包含在校生的25-29岁劳动力失业率为7.0%，不包含在校生的30-59岁劳 动力失业率为3.0%。 国家统计局发布5月份分年龄组失业率数据 ...