Group 1: CPI Marginal Improvement - In June, the CPI showed a marginal improvement with a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, reversing a three-month trend of -0.1%, primarily driven by rising domestic fuel prices and a rebound in durable goods prices [2] - Food prices performed better than seasonal averages, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 0.7% month-on-month, compared to a historical average decline of -3.9% [2] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in June, recovering from a previous decline of -1.7%, influenced by rising international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [2][3] Group 2: PPI Continued Pressure - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month in June, marking the seventh consecutive month of negative growth, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, the largest drop since August 2023 [4] - The decline in production material prices was a significant factor, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, compared to a historical average of -0.1% [4] - Life goods prices remained sluggish, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, reflecting weak seasonal performance [4] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - CPI is expected to show a mild recovery, with an annual increase projected around 0%, higher than the first half's average of -0.1% [5] - Core CPI is anticipated to rise by approximately 0.6% for the year, supported by policies aimed at improving supply-demand structures [6] - PPI is expected to remain under pressure, with an annual decline projected at around -2.3%, an improvement from the first half's -2.8% [6] Group 4: International and Domestic Commodity Trends - Internationally, commodity prices are expected to show increased divergence and reduced volatility, with oil prices likely to continue declining due to OPEC+ production increases and weakening global demand [7] - Domestically, weak internal demand persists, particularly in real estate and infrastructure investments, which are not expected to drive resource prices upward [7] - The manufacturing sector is facing challenges with low capacity utilization, indicating a phase of oversupply in certain industries [7]

Group 1 - The current consensus in the market is to combat "involutionary" competition through legal and market measures, stabilizing market prices and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1] - The complex causes of "involutionary" competition include local governments using industrial policies for inter-regional capacity investment competition, leading to overcapacity and price competition in related industries [1] - The shift to high-quality development emphasizes the importance of the real economy, with a focus on developing emerging industries and promoting the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing [1] Group 2 - Industrial policies and competition policies have coexisted in China, with industrial policies being necessary for promoting technological innovation and industrial upgrading, but they should be based on competitive policies [2] - The experience of Japan suggests that an overemphasis on industrial policies can lead to low growth, highlighting the need for a balance between industrial and competition policies during different growth phases [2] - During the high-quality development phase, the main drivers of economic growth are innovation and the market's ability to shift resources from low productivity to high productivity sectors [3] Group 3 - The need for a coordinated approach between industrial policies and macroeconomic policies is crucial to avoid asset bubbles and ensure effective resource allocation [3] - When industrial policies are misused by local governments for quantity-based expansion, it can lead to "involutionary" competition, reducing corporate profits and hindering innovation investment [3] - Establishing a unified national market is essential for ensuring fair competition and effective resource allocation [4] Group 4 - There is an urgent need to establish a system and institutional guarantees for achieving high-quality development, with central government-led industrial policies to promote innovation and industrial upgrading [4] - A well-coordinated relationship between industrial and competition policies is necessary to prevent local governments from undermining fair competition rules [4] - Improving the assessment systems for high-quality development and local government performance can help avoid the distortion of industrial policies into tools for regional competition [4]

Core Insights - The country has reached a stage of large-scale production of new quality productivity, but the relevant mechanisms have not fully adapted [1] - The "new three drivers" of economic growth, namely basic research, application technology transformation, and financial services, must work in synergy to avoid being trapped in the "middle-income trap" [2] Group 1: New Three Drivers - Basic research is primarily conducted by universities and research institutions, while application technology transformation is mainly the responsibility of high-quality manufacturing enterprises [1][2] - Financial services are crucial for application technology transformation, but there is a lack of long-cycle venture capital systems to support high-risk technology transformation [2] Group 2: Industry Policy and Regulation - Industry policy should focus on creating new productivity and upgrading traditional industries through new technologies [2] - There is a need for appropriate relaxation of regulations on innovation exploration and technology implementation to foster a better business environment [3] Group 3: Role of SMEs - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are particularly vulnerable to challenges posed by a complex international economic environment, but their resilience and flexibility should not be underestimated [3][4] - The government should emphasize the importance of SMEs, especially specialized and innovative enterprises, and consider a "small first, large later" approach in resource allocation [3] Group 4: Global Expansion - The trend of enterprises "going out" should focus on high-quality, innovative products rather than competing in low-end markets [4] - State-owned enterprises and private enterprises should have clear divisions of labor in international expansion, with state-owned enterprises handling large-scale infrastructure and private enterprises focusing on integrating into local societies [4]

姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空博弈加剧，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：7 月 7 日，焦炭主力合约震荡下跌，录得 0.94%的跌幅，尾盘报收 于 1422.5 元/吨。近期市场逻辑再次由基本面博弈转向预期博弈。7 月 1 日，中央财经委员会第六次会议提到要整治"内卷式竞争"，并引导落后 产能有序退出。目前，国内焦煤属于供应过剩品种，焦炭属于产能过剩品 种，均有被该政策影响的可能，不过焦化行业近几年刚完成产能升级，淘 汰 4.3 米及以下焦炉，因此本轮政策对焦炭直接影响可能相对有限 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the issue of "involution" in various industries, particularly in the automotive sector, where excessive competition leads to low profit margins despite high production and sales volumes [1][11][30]. Group 1: Involution in Industries - The automotive industry's profit margin in Q1 2024 was only 3.9%, contrasting sharply with the industry's vibrant public image and record production and sales [1]. - The Chinese automotive industry is experiencing a decline in profitability due to chaotic price wars, which are a manifestation of "involution" [1][15]. - Other sectors such as photovoltaic, lithium batteries, and express delivery are also suffering from similar "involution" issues, leading to widespread concern [1][11]. Group 2: Causes of Involution - "Involution" is characterized by competition that does not lead to growth, often resulting in inefficiencies and resource wastage [2][5]. - Factors contributing to "involution" include local government policies that encourage unhealthy competition, supply-demand imbalances, and inadequate legal frameworks [6][22]. - The phenomenon is exacerbated by companies engaging in price wars to maintain market share, even at the cost of profitability [5][20]. Group 3: Impact of Involution - Excessive competition leads to resource wastage and hinders innovation, as companies focus on survival rather than development [3][4]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in LED lighting and other industries, faces significant challenges due to low-price competition, which discourages investment in research and development [3][4]. - The automotive industry's low profit margins also negatively impact upstream suppliers, such as steel manufacturers, creating a ripple effect throughout the supply chain [16]. Group 4: Government and Industry Response - The central government has recognized the urgency of addressing "involution" and has called for comprehensive measures to regulate competition and promote healthy market practices [11][12]. - Various government departments are implementing policies to combat "involution," including stricter regulations on government procurement and industry standards [12][13]. - Industry associations are advocating for self-regulation and the establishment of fair competition practices to mitigate the effects of "involution" [14][30]. Group 5: Future Directions - Companies are encouraged to innovate and shift from "stock competition" to "incremental creation" to escape the cycle of "involution" [20][21]. - The government is focusing on optimizing industrial layouts and preventing the expansion of outdated capacities to foster a healthier competitive environment [26][27]. - Strengthening intellectual property protections and ensuring fair competition are essential steps to combat the adverse effects of "involution" [29][30].

■谢若琳 一边是"容量竞赛"，充电宝越做越"大"；另一边是"价格战"，企业的利润一点点被侵蚀。这种"内卷 式"竞争使得企业不得不寻求低价外包，以便压缩成本。可以说，这种竞争模式违背了经济运行基本规 律，也是促进市场公平竞争、激发创新活力、提高发展效率的大敌。 去年年底召开的中央经济工作会议指出，综合整治"内卷式"竞争，规范地方政府和企业行为。今年7月1 日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规 治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。 不仅是充电宝行业，近期多家光伏、汽车行业上市公司也发声"反内卷"。毫无疑问，"内卷式"竞争会造 成"劣币驱逐良币"，使得企业陷入无序、恶性竞争的循环之中，忽视技术创新和产业升级，严重阻碍行 业发展。在笔者看来，未来可以从三个层面着手，推动各行各业"反内卷"。 政策层面，应进一步强化法律与信用约束，严惩低价倾销行为，避免单一行业重复建设和产能过剩，推 动落后产能有序退出市场。行业层面，应达成协作共赢的良性竞争生态，避免低价无序竞争。企业层 面，要从"价格战"转向价值创造，走技术差异化路线，以供应链协同的方 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: In the second half of the year, the demand is pro - cyclically weak, and the policy is "easy to loosen and hard to tighten". Under the assumption of relatively mild monetary and supply - side policies, focus on policy expectations in July, with a relatively positive macro tone. From July to September, if policies do not turn significantly looser, the US will face liquidity risks and the threat of "reciprocal tariffs", bringing macro pressure. After September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [8][29][30]. - **Mesoscopic**: From the perspective of policy documents and industry self - discipline, industries such as steel, refining, synthetic ammonia, cement, electrolytic aluminum, data centers, coal - fired power, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e - commerce can be focused on for the current comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition [9]. - **Microscopic**: Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency. It is necessary for the Fed to restart the easing cycle smoothly, and gold, crude oil, and non - ferrous metals are relatively beneficial. Domestically, the core is the supply - side policy. Referring to 2015, sectors with obvious supply - side production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved, with the mid - and downstream benefiting more than the upstream. This round focuses on sectors such as the black sector and new energy metals [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - **Demand and Inventory Cycle**: The pro - cyclical demand in the second half of the year is weak. The Sino - US inventory cycle has re - entered the destocking phase, and this round of destocking may last until the end of 2025 [14]. - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: Global central banks are "easy to loosen and hard to tighten", and both China and the US are increasing fiscal policies. In China, a series of financial policies have been introduced, and the "market bottom" is clear [20][21]. - **Tariff Threats**: Global populist waves are continuous. Trump has issued tariff threats, and the US is in different stages of trade negotiations with various countries [25]. - **Macro Scenario Deduction**: In July, focus on policy expectations; from July to September, there is macro pressure; after September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [28][29][30]. 3.2 Mesoscopic - **Policy Shift in the US**: The passage of the "Great Beauty" bill marks the US's shift from the first half of the year's "tight fiscal expectation + neutral currency" to a "easy to loosen and hard to tighten" policy stage [32]. - **Domestic Policy Focus**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting focuses on governing "involution - style" competition, but details of industry production cuts are needed to determine the inflation trading theme [32]. - **Policy on "Involution - style" Competition**: Policy documents and industry self - discipline focus on industries such as steel, refining, etc. The causes of "involution - style" competition are analyzed, and comprehensive rectification ideas are proposed [9][35][36]. 3.3 Commodities - **Capital Expenditure**: The capital expenditure of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, while that of the black, chemical, and energy sectors has increased. The capital expenditure of crude oil has increased, and the capital expenditure of industrial metals has shown different trends [42][45]. - **Asset Performance in Stagflation - like Situations**: Overseas macro situations are more in line with "stagflation - like" characteristics. In historical stagflation - like stages, the performance of various assets is highly differentiated [54]. - **2015 Supply - side Reform Review**: In 2015, supply - side structural reform was proposed, with clear tasks such as "cutting overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and strengthening weak links". Sectors with obvious production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved [61][62].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is experiencing a shift away from chaotic price wars, with companies like BYD and Tesla taking steps to stabilize pricing and improve profitability [2][4]. Industry Overview - In the first five months of the year, China's automotive production and sales reached 12.826 million and 12.748 million units, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.7% and 10.9% [2]. - The industry has been characterized by disordered price wars, which have occurred in four rounds over the past three years, impacting profitability and long-term innovation [4]. Company Actions - BYD has halted its "limited-time fixed price" policy and introduced a new purchasing policy [2]. - Tesla China has raised the price of the Model 3 Long Range All-Wheel Drive version by 10,000 yuan [2]. Market Dynamics - The effectiveness of price cuts to stimulate sales is diminishing, as evidenced by a leading automaker achieving monthly sales of over 300,000 units in the first half of the year [4]. - Regulatory bodies are taking action against disordered competition, with the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers advocating for fair competition and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizing the negative impacts of price wars on product quality and economic development [4].

Group 1 - The core issue of "involutionary competition" is characterized by excessive price competition among companies, leading to a decline in overall efficiency and quality of products and services [2][3] - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law, effective from October 15, 2025, introduces new regulations to curb "involutionary competition," particularly targeting platform operators who force merchants to sell below cost [1][5][9] - The law aims to shift the competitive model from "price wars" to "value wars," encouraging platforms to focus on service upgrades, technological innovation, and ecological optimization [1][6][8] Group 2 - Various industries, including e-commerce and automotive, have begun to respond to the central government's call to address "involutionary competition," with initiatives to resist price wars and promote industry self-discipline [3][4] - The e-commerce sector has seen significant changes, such as the modification of the "refund only" policy, allowing merchants more autonomy in handling refunds, which reflects a move away from aggressive price competition [3][4] - The automotive industry has also taken a stand against "price wars," with associations and regulatory bodies advocating for a halt to such practices, emphasizing that there are no winners in price wars [3][4] Group 3 - The new law establishes a fair competition review system and mandates that platform operators must not compel merchants to sell below cost, thereby maintaining market order [5][7] - The law emphasizes the responsibility of platform operators to manage competition within their ecosystems, ensuring that they do not engage in practices that lead to market chaos [8][9] - The introduction of penalties for platforms that enforce below-cost pricing aims to deter such practices and promote a healthier market environment [9][10] Group 4 - Challenges in implementing the new regulations include the difficulty in defining "below cost" and the potential for platforms to circumvent rules through indirect means [10][11] - Industry associations are encouraged to participate in governance by creating actionable industry standards and promoting transparency in competitive practices [11][12] - The distinction between legitimate price competition and "involutionary competition" is crucial, with regulatory bodies needing to refine enforcement standards to effectively combat unfair practices [11][12]

近年来，在全球绿色产业竞赛中，中国制造凭借新技术、新产品脱颖而出。尤其以新能源汽车、锂 电池、光伏产品为代表的"新三样"叫响全球。 但与此同时，"内卷式"竞争逐渐成为舆论焦点，新能源汽车、锂电池、光伏以及风电、储能等领域 这一问题均受到诟病。 《求是》杂志在7月1日刊文《深刻认识和综合整治"内卷式"竞争》，对"内卷式"竞争发出严厉警 告，文章认为，价格战造成社会资源的极大浪费，不可持续的债务可能危及长期增长。 文章在分析内卷表现时指出，一些地方政府为招引企业、培育产业，人为制造政策洼地，违规实施 税费、补贴、用地等不公平非普惠的优惠政策，导致无序竞争，破坏公平竞争秩序。 文章在分析"内卷式"竞争是怎么形成的时指出，由于政府缺位越位等行为时有发生，很大程度上影 响公平竞争市场环境的形成。有的地方政绩考核机制不完善，导致政绩观、发展观错位，为了追求短期 经济增长而搞地方保护、市场分割、恶性比拼招商引资政策等，妨碍资源要素高效流动。此外，由于破 产重整制度不完善，加上有的地方政府行政力量干预，导致一些本该淘汰的落后和过剩产能不能及时退 出，部分企业"活不好、死不了"，影响了产业重组和资源利用效率的提高。 文章指出， ...