证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 赣锋锂业（002460） 2025 年业绩预告点评：锂价上涨贡献弹性， Q4 业绩反转 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 32,972 | 18,906 | 22,042 | 43,216 | 48,817 | | 同比（%） | (21.16) | (42.66) | 16.59 | 96.06 | 12.96 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,947 | (2,074) | 1,485 | 9,379 | 10,858 | | 同比（%） | (75.87) | (141.93) | 171.58 | 531.75 | 15.77 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.36 | (0.99) | 0.71 | 4.47 | 5.18 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 30.90 | (73.71) | 102.97 | 16.30 | 14.0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][19] Core Views - The company's performance in 2025 is under pressure, but it is expected to turn profitable in Q4 2025, indicating a potential inflection point. The company has a sufficient order backlog and is expanding in non-lithium sectors, which may lead to improved performance in the future [2][12] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,805 million, with a decrease to 4,525 million in 2024, followed by a further decline to 4,372 million in 2025. However, revenue is expected to rebound to 6,012 million in 2026 and reach 7,482 million in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 37.5% and 24.4% respectively [4][13] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 322 million in 2023, but it is expected to decline to -163 million in 2024 and -857 million in 2025. A recovery is anticipated in 2026 with a net profit of 483 million and further growth to 803 million in 2027 [4][13] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.30 in 2023, dropping to -0.66 in 2024 and -3.46 in 2025, before recovering to 1.95 in 2026 and 3.24 in 2027 [4][13] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.7% in 2023, turning negative at -5.1% in 2024 and -36.5% in 2025, but recovering to 17.1% in 2026 and 22.1% in 2027 [4][13] Order and Market Dynamics - The company has seen a significant increase in new orders, with approximately 44.21 billion in new orders (including tax) in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 117.5%. As of June 30, 2025, the order backlog stands at about 100.85 billion (including tax), up 46% year-on-year [12][13] - The decline in profitability in 2025 is attributed to overcapacity in the lithium and photovoltaic industries, leading to sustained price pressure on products. Additionally, increased costs and asset impairment losses have negatively impacted profits [12][13] Business Expansion - The company is actively expanding into multiple sectors, including: 1. In the photovoltaic sector, it is collaborating with leading manufacturers to develop perovskite tandem batteries, which are expected to enhance efficiency and be used in low-orbit satellites and space computing power generation [12] 2. In the solid-state battery sector, the company is the first in the industry to pursue dual technology routes and has secured commercial production orders for solid-state battery equipment [12] 3. In other areas, the company has received orders for laser drilling equipment in HDI and PCB sectors, which are expected to benefit from the growth in AI computing power [12]

Macro Strategy - The IPCA model shows better application effects in the domestic credit bond market compared to the US market, with a Sharpe ratio consistently above 1.45 and above 2.2 from May to December 2025 [1][13] - The strategy exhibits asymmetric risk/reward characteristics, with 75% of sample dates showing positive excess credit returns, and a maximum excess return of 0.13% from January 2024 to December 2025 [1][13] - The practical operability of the strategy is strong, allowing for investment in bonds with similar risk characteristics even when specific bonds are not available in the secondary market [1][13] Fixed Income Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of key industries, including new pillar industries, future industries, traditional industry upgrades, infrastructure construction, green transformation, and consumer upgrades, which are expected to receive policy support and financing breakthroughs [2][14] - A total of 1,098 bond-issuing entities align with the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a total bond scale of approximately 10.8 trillion yuan, primarily rated AAA and concentrated in East and North China [2][14] - The participation of bond-issuing entities in the six key industries shows significant differentiation, with infrastructure and new pillar industries leading in both the number of issuers and bond scale [2][14] Industry Insights - The public utility sector is expected to benefit from deepened electricity reforms, with recommendations to focus on green electricity, thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and the valuation of photovoltaic and charging pile assets [7] - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to experience a spring consumption surge, particularly in snacks, dining, and seasonal beverages, with a positive outlook for Q1 2026 due to favorable market conditions [7] - Companies like KaiGe Precision Machinery and HeMai Co. are positioned to benefit from the growing demand in AI computing and energy storage, with projected profit growth in the coming years [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the electric new energy sector, including CATL, Xiamen Tungsten, and others [2][3]. Core Insights - The electric new energy sector's overall fund holding ratio has decreased, with a notable decline in the holdings of new energy vehicle and power equipment sectors, while the industrial control sector saw a slight increase [6][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy, technology, and demand factors influencing the various sub-sectors within the electric new energy industry, leading to different performance expectations [6][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Fund Holdings in Electric New Energy Sector - As of Q4 2025, the fund holding ratio for the electric new energy sector is 8.73%, down by 0.93 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.83 percentage points year-on-year [9][14]. - The market capitalization of the electric new energy sector accounts for 5.92% of the total market capitalization, with a slight decrease of 0.28 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 0.81 percentage points year-on-year [9][14]. 2. Sub-sector Fund Holdings Analysis - The fund holding ratio for the new energy vehicle sector is 7.24%, down by 1.06 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.30 percentage points year-on-year [18][21]. - The new energy power generation sector has a fund holding ratio of 2.19%, with a minor decrease of 0.05 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and a decrease of 0.30 percentage points year-on-year [18][24]. - The power equipment and industrial control sector's fund holding ratio is 1.28%, showing a slight increase of 0.14 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [18][26]. 3. Investment Recommendations 3.1 New Energy Vehicles - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear competitive advantages and improving profitability in the battery segment, such as CATL and A123 Systems [28]. - It also highlights the importance of materials and components in the supply chain, recommending companies like Keda and others [28]. 3.2 New Energy Power Generation - The report indicates a shift from policy-driven to market-driven demand for energy storage, recommending companies involved in energy storage integration and battery production [29]. - It emphasizes the growth potential in wind energy, particularly offshore wind, and suggests monitoring companies like Mingyang Smart Energy and Goldwind [30][32]. 3.3 Power Equipment and Industrial Control - The report identifies AIDC as a growth driver for power equipment demand, recommending companies with strong fundamentals and competitive pricing [34]. - It also notes the increasing importance of high-voltage construction in domestic demand, suggesting companies like XJ Electric and others [34][35].

Summary of Dinglong Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Dinglong Co., Ltd. (鼎龙股份) - **Industry**: Lithium battery materials, specifically focusing on functional auxiliary materials for power and energy storage batteries Key Points and Arguments - **Acquisition Details**: Dinglong acquired 70% of Haofei New Materials for 630 million yuan, valuing the company at 900 million yuan, with a PE ratio below 10 times, marking Dinglong's entry into the lithium battery materials sector [2][4] - **Haofei's Market Position**: Haofei is a leading supplier of lithium battery dispersants and binders, with a strong growth trajectory expected to continue, projecting sales of 590 million yuan by 2026 [2][6] - **Strategic Rationale for Entry**: Dinglong's decision to enter the lithium battery materials market was based on extensive research, identifying significant growth potential in auxiliary materials, which are crucial for battery performance and efficiency [3][4] - **Future Plans Post-Acquisition**: Dinglong aims to accelerate its presence in solid-state battery materials, leveraging both companies' technological strengths to innovate functional auxiliary materials [2][7] - **Haofei's Competitive Edge**: Haofei has replaced imported materials and collaborates with leading companies like CATL, achieving over 50% annual sales growth since 2021, with a projected revenue of 590 million yuan in 2026 [6][8] - **Investment in Production Capacity**: Haofei plans to invest in the Xiangyang Industrial Park to address upstream raw material needs, supporting its anticipated sales growth driven by increasing demand in the lithium battery sector [9] Additional Important Insights - **Technological Integration**: Dinglong plans to integrate AI technology into material development, enhancing research efficiency and innovation capabilities [19][20] - **Collaboration Synergy**: The partnership between Dinglong and Haofei is based on technological and industrial synergies, with Dinglong providing support in key upstream raw materials to enhance Haofei's product competitiveness [10][11] - **Solid-State Battery Development**: Dinglong has been researching solid-state batteries since 2022, recognizing their potential in high-end applications like AI robotics and drones, and plans to accelerate development in this area [12][13] - **Financial Structure of Acquisition**: The acquisition structure allows Haofei to retain 30% ownership, reflecting confidence in future growth, with a performance-based payment mechanism in place [14][15] - **Team Integration and Future Planning**: Dinglong intends to create a new platform that integrates both teams to develop complex lithium battery materials, emphasizing the importance of this collaboration for competitive advantage [16][17] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of Dinglong's strategic move into the lithium battery materials industry through the acquisition of Haofei New Materials, highlighting the anticipated growth, technological advancements, and collaborative synergies that will shape their future endeavors.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - The company discussed is **厦钨新能 (Xiamen Tungsten New Energy)**, focusing on its performance and outlook for 2025 and 2026. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved a revenue of **¥20.03 billion**, representing a **48% year-on-year increase**. The net profit attributable to shareholders was **¥750 million**, with a **42% increase**, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was **¥710 million**, up **58%** [1] - For Q4 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was **¥200 million**, showing a **42% year-on-year increase** and a **7% quarter-on-quarter decrease**. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was also **¥200 million**, with an **89% year-on-year increase** and a **7% quarter-on-quarter decrease**. The decline in apparent performance was mainly due to a **¥150 million impairment provision** [1] Product Performance - In Q4 2025, the company shipped **over 18,000 tons** of lithium cobalt oxide, with a slight quarter-on-quarter increase, driven by downstream inventory buildup amid rising raw material costs and adjustments in export tax rebate rates. The unit operating profit remained around **¥10,000** [2] - The shipment of ternary products was between **17,000 to 18,000 tons**, maintaining a unit operating profit of around **¥3,000**. Iron lithium shipments were over **6,000 tons**, continuing to reduce losses through full production [2] - For the entire year of 2025, shipments included **65,000 tons** of lithium cobalt oxide (up **41% year-on-year**), **55,000 to 56,000 tons** of ternary products (approximately **10% year-on-year increase**), and around **21,000 tons** of iron lithium [2] Strategic Outlook - The company anticipates that the **solid-state battery** layout will progress smoothly, with the potential for significant growth in 2026. Factors such as the promotion of AI at the endpoint and increased battery capacity in mobile devices are expected to contribute to stable growth in lithium cobalt oxide [3] - The ternary and iron lithium segments are projected to grow alongside the power market, with the iron lithium business expected to turn around and contribute to performance growth [3] - The company is advancing its **10+ ton pilot line** for solid-state batteries, and if cost reduction progresses faster than expected, it may achieve non-linear growth in market share. Additionally, the lithium supplement is expected to continue increasing, with the NL cathode project set to commence delivery in 2026, leading to a comprehensive increase in output [3] - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of **¥900 million to ¥1 billion** in 2026, and continues to be positively recommended for investment [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongwei New Materials (300919.SZ) is expected to maintain its leading position in the ternary precursor market by 2025, according to Xinluo statistics [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The current production capacity utilization rate of the company is high [1] - The company remains optimistic about the growth potential of nickel-based materials [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Domestic terminal demand structure is upgrading, with high-end electric vehicles featuring high-nickel ternary batteries being launched, increasing the installation ratio of ternary batteries [1] - European policy direction is driving the continuous increase in electric vehicle penetration [1] - The gradual commercialization of solid-state batteries is promoting the growth of high-nickel ternary materials [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongwei New Materials (300919.SZ) is expected to maintain its leading position in the ternary precursor market by 2025, according to Xinluo statistics [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The current production capacity utilization rate of the company is high [1] - The company remains optimistic about the growth potential of nickel-based materials [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Domestic terminal demand structure is upgrading, with high-end electric vehicles featuring high-nickel ternary batteries being launched, increasing the installation ratio of ternary batteries [1] - European policy direction is driving the continuous increase in electric vehicle penetration [1] - The gradual commercialization of solid-state batteries is promoting the growth of high-nickel ternary materials [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 72.94 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company's performance is significantly improving, driven by the recovery in the lithium battery industry, steady progress in internationalization and platformization, and the potential of solid-state battery technology to contribute to growth [2]. - The company is expected to achieve a substantial increase in net profit for 2025, estimated between 1.5 billion to 1.8 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 424.29% to 529.15% [12]. - The company has strengthened its technological advantages in solid-state batteries, sodium-ion batteries, and perovskite technologies, enhancing operational efficiency and profitability [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 16,628 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 19.4%. However, a decline of 28.7% is expected in 2024 [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,775 million CNY in 2023, with a significant drop to 286 million CNY in 2024, followed by a rebound to 1,757 million CNY in 2025 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.12 CNY, with a projected increase to 2.23 CNY by 2027 [4]. Performance Drivers - The company's revenue growth is primarily attributed to the rapid recovery of orders in the lithium battery market, which has accelerated delivery and acceptance rates [12]. - The company has made significant advancements in high-end equipment manufacturing, establishing itself as a leading provider of solid-state battery production lines with comprehensive service capabilities [12]. - The management of cash flow has improved, with shorter acceptance and payment cycles enhancing operational resilience [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Hefei Yinshi New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. has completed several million yuan in angel round financing, led by Chery Group's venture capital platform, with additional investments from Temasek's Vertex Ventures and Anhui Guokong Investment, as well as strategic investment from Xiaomi Group [1] - The financing will primarily be used for capacity expansion and technological research and development, aiming to promote the industrialization of sulfide solid electrolytes [1] - Yinshi New Materials was established in 2024 and relies on top research teams from institutions like Yanshan University National Laboratory, University of Science and Technology of China, and Chinese Academy of Sciences, focusing on developing high-performance sulfide solid electrolyte materials for all-solid-state batteries [1] Group 2 - The company has developed a series of electrolyte products with various particle size specifications and has a stable supply capacity of 30 tons per year, with plans to build a new production line with an annual capacity of 300-500 tons starting in the second half of 2026 [1] - Research and development efforts are focused on enhancing electrolyte air stability to address the issue of H₂S generation when sulfide electrolytes encounter water, improving cell safety by suppressing lithium dendrite growth and enhancing thermal stability, optimizing low-pressure adaptability to reduce battery assembly complexity, and upgrading compatibility with silicon-carbon anodes for next-generation high-energy-density battery systems [1] - The company plans to expand its research boundaries into cutting-edge areas such as lithium-rich manganese-based cathodes, lithium metal anodes, and anode-free systems, further deepening its technological layout in sulfide electrolytes [1]