行业研究丨深度报告丨电气设备 [Table_Title] 高压一二次设备持续增长，多品种出口迭创新高 ——电网 2025 年 1-7 月招标总结 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 38 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 电气设备 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Summary] 国网：2025 年 1-7 月的招标中，特高压设备完成 107.05 亿元，同比+4.9%，特高压材料完成 178.7 亿元，同比+405%，输变电设备完成 547.7 亿元，同比+25%，输变电材料完成 241.7 亿 元，同比-17.6%，计量设备完成 75.0 亿元，同比-43.6%，数字化完成 33.14 亿元，同比+30.5%。 南网：主网二次保持高增，配网和计量下降。 出口：上半年持续高增，多品种迭创新高。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 曹海花 司鸿历 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490520080002 ...

开源证券研报指出，平高电气在手订单充裕，上半年经营业绩持续高质量增长。截至2025年6月末，公 司合同负债17.15亿元，较2024年末增加5.17亿元。2025H1公司电网市场持续巩固，输变电设备/特高压 设备中标44.80/4.61亿元，yoy+49.2%/+62.6%，市占率居前；网外订单持续突破，中标3家央企大客户框 架，再次中标中广核项目，实现1000千伏GIL网外市场首次应用，签订中煤变电站智能巡视机器人集群 系统项目；国际市场加快转型，中标沙特5台132千伏高压移动变；420千伏GIS首次打入墨西哥市场。 2025年，国家电网公司、南方电网的总投资将超8250亿元，公司有望充分受益于新型电力系统加速建 设。考虑到公司在电网市场的稳固地位，该行看好公司长期发展前景，维持"买入"评级。 ...

yoy+7.6%/+14.6%/+20.1%/+288.4%。由于电网投资和海外市场波动，我们下调公司2025-2027 的盈利预 测，预计归母净利润分别为13.91/16.83/19.35（原值15.13/17.79/20.08）亿元，EPS 为1.02/1.24/1.43 元， 对应当前股价PE 为15.8/13.0/11.3 倍，考虑到公司在电网市场的稳固地位，我们看好公司长期发展前 景，维持"买入"评级。 公司在手订单充裕，电网市场地位稳固，网外市场和国际市场订单持续突破公司在手订单充裕。截至 2025 年6 月末，公司合同负债17.15 亿元，较2024 年末增加5.17 亿元。2025H1 公司电网市场持续巩 固，输变电设备/特高压设备中标44.80/4.61 亿元，yoy+49.2%/+62.6%，市占率居前；网外订单持续突 破，中标3家央企大客户框架，再次中标中广核项目，实现1000 千伏GIL 网外市场首次应用，签订中煤 变电站智能巡视机器人集群系统项目；国际市场加快转型，中标沙特5 台132 千伏高压移动变；420 千 伏GIS 首次打入墨西哥市场。 主网投资延续高景气，配网迎来重大发展机 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Yarlung Tsangpo River Hydropower Investment Opportunities Industry and Company Involved - The conference call focuses on the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, a significant clean energy initiative in China. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Location and Resource Advantage** The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station is strategically located at a bend where approximately 90% of the river's hydropower resources are concentrated, providing a significant natural drop advantage [3] 2. **Environmental Impact** Once operational, the project is expected to replace about 100 million tons of standard coal annually and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 300 million tons, contributing significantly to environmental protection [5] 3. **Investment Scale and Capacity** The total investment for the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station is projected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan, with a total generating capacity of 60 GW, equivalent to three Three Gorges dams [2] 4. **Economic Contribution** The project is anticipated to generate over 10 billion yuan in annual fiscal revenue for the Tibet Autonomous Region, significantly contributing to local economic development and creating numerous job opportunities [6] 5. **Explosive Demand for the Motuo Project** The Motuo project is expected to require tens to millions of tons of explosives over a 10-year blasting period, with related orders potentially reaching 50 billion yuan [7] 6. **Beneficiary Companies** Companies such as Yipuli, High Hope Explosives, Poly United, Huhua Co., and Guangdong Hongda are expected to benefit directly from the Motuo project [8] 7. **Market Potential for Electrical Equipment** The downstream market for ultra-high voltage equipment is estimated at around 600 billion yuan, with a net profit of approximately 48 billion yuan from the power generation equipment sector, primarily benefiting Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric [9][10] 8. **High Voltage Equipment Market** The overall installed capacity for high voltage equipment is about 150 million kW, with market spaces of 75 billion yuan for high voltage transformers and 112 billion yuan for high voltage switchgear [11] 9. **GIL Equipment Market** The GIL (Gas Insulated Transmission Line) equipment market is projected to be between 60 billion to 70 billion yuan, with a total circuit expected to exceed 2000 kilometers [14] 10. **Overall Market Size and Profitability** The total market size for various transmission and distribution equipment is estimated at around 1.2 trillion yuan, with an average net profit margin of 10%, corresponding to about 120 billion yuan in net profit [15] 11. **Investment Opportunities in Construction** The construction process of the Yarlung Tsangpo project includes various stages such as rock excavation, diversion construction, and installation of electromechanical equipment, each presenting different investment opportunities [17] 12. **Impact on Existing Industry Structure** The project may create competitive pressures on existing companies in the hydropower sector, particularly those involved in power transmission to Guangdong [18] 13. **Synergy with Renewable Energy Projects** The development of the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower station is expected to enhance the efficiency of associated wind and solar projects, promoting the growth of related renewable energy companies [20][21] 14. **Impact on Non-Ferrous Metals Sector** The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower station is likely to drive demand for copper and aluminum, with recommendations for companies like Jinneng Xinneng and Zhongguang Mining in the copper sector [23][24] 15. **Tourism Impact** The project is expected to significantly boost tourism in the region, similar to the effects observed during the construction of the Three Gorges project, benefiting local tourism companies [25][28] 16. **Future Infrastructure Developments** The anticipated completion of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway in 2026 is expected to further enhance tourist numbers and positively impact related listed companies [26] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The project is seen as a critical milestone in China's clean energy strategy, with a reasonable cost structure and potential for significant economic benefits [19] - The integration of various infrastructure developments, such as roads and railways, will be funded by the state, making the overall investment more feasible [21]

Group 1 - The core concept of the news revolves around the launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, which has led to a significant surge in related stocks and indices in the A-share market, with a notable increase of 12.52% in the concept index on the announcement day [2] - The project involves an investment of 1.2 trillion yuan and is expected to have an installed capacity exceeding 80 million kilowatts, three times that of the Three Gorges Dam, impacting national energy security and geopolitical dynamics in South Asia [2] - The Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project is characterized as a national-level super project with high technical difficulty, including high altitude, complex geology, and long-distance power transmission, which has attracted substantial market speculation [2] Group 2 - The capital market's reaction to the Yarlung Tsangpo concept is compared to previous speculative trends seen with other concepts like AI and Tesla, highlighting the typical behavior of investors chasing potential profits [3] - Similarities are drawn between the Yarlung Tsangpo project and the Xiong'an New Area concept, particularly in terms of policy-driven expectations and the initial market frenzy surrounding both projects [3] - The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower station is expected to provide a clearer path for revenue generation through electricity production and sales, distinguishing it from other speculative themes [4] Group 3 - The core beneficiaries of the Yarlung Tsangpo project include state-owned enterprises like China Yarlung Group and suppliers of turbines, steel, cement, and engineering machinery, as well as construction companies involved in specific project segments [4] - The project aligns with China's long-term "dual carbon" strategy, emphasizing the shift towards clean energy and the sustained government support for large-scale clean energy initiatives [4] - The project is anticipated to generate stable cash flow and profits post-completion, providing a solid foundation for its valuation compared to other speculative stocks that may lack fundamental support [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the surge in the "Yarlung Tsangpo River Hydropower" concept stocks following the announcement of a significant national investment in hydropower projects, highlighting the potential for both investment opportunities and market speculation [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On July 21, the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower concept index surged by 12.52%, with related sectors such as engineering machinery and construction materials seeing increases of 9% and 5.13% respectively [2]. - The announcement of a 1.2 trillion yuan investment in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has led to a significant influx of capital into related stocks, with nearly 130 stocks hitting the daily limit up, marking a recent high [2][3]. Group 2: Project Significance - The Yarlung Tsangpo downstream hydropower project is a national-level mega project with a potential installed capacity exceeding 80 million kilowatts, three times that of the Three Gorges Dam, impacting national energy security and geopolitical dynamics in South Asia [2][3]. - The project aligns with China's long-term "dual carbon" strategy, emphasizing the shift towards clean energy and the sustained government support for large-scale clean energy initiatives [5]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - The core beneficiaries of the Yarlung Tsangpo project include state-owned enterprises and suppliers of essential materials and equipment, indicating a clearer path for revenue generation compared to other speculative investments [4][5]. - The article warns that during periods of intense speculation, many companies with weak ties to the core project may attempt to capitalize on the hype, potentially leading to inflated valuations and subsequent market corrections [5].

Group 1: Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, aiming to construct five cascade power stations [1] - The project is expected to generate an annual electricity output of about 300 billion kilowatt-hours, which is three times that of the Three Gorges Project [2] Group 2: Industry Impact - The project is anticipated to significantly boost demand for engineering machinery due to its large scale and the challenging geographical conditions, benefiting leading companies in the industry [2] - Major suppliers of hydropower equipment in China include Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric, and Harbin Electric, with Dongfang Electric achieving a 100% localization rate for 1 million kilowatt generator sets [2] - Central state-owned enterprises involved in hydropower engineering design and construction, such as China Power Construction Corporation and China Energy Engineering Corporation, are expected to be the first beneficiaries of the project [2] Group 3: Related Sectors - The high-altitude and complex geological conditions of the project will drive the demand for high-performance engineering machinery, favoring industry leaders [2][3] - The cement sector is likely to experience a new wave of growth due to the project, with companies like Tibet Tianlu and Huaxin Cement dominating the local market [3] - The commencement of the project is expected to significantly increase the demand for explosives in Tibet, benefiting companies with production capacity and business layout in the region, such as Gaozheng Minbao and Yipuli [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [12] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the long-term impact of hydropower on the grid, particularly focusing on GIL corridors, hydropower station automation, and external transmission channels [3] - The construction of the Yaxia hydropower project is expected to replicate the successful model of large-scale wind power bases in the northwest, with a target of over 120 million kilowatts of pumped storage capacity by 2030 [3] - The GIL corridor is anticipated to create significant investment opportunities, with an estimated investment of 300 billion for 2000 km of transmission lines [3] - Automation in hydropower stations is expected to enhance grid stability and efficiency, benefiting companies that provide control and monitoring equipment [3][4] - The planning capacity of the Motuo hydropower station is projected to exceed 70 GW, with a focus on supporting external transmission channels [4] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the recent initiation of the Yaxia hydropower project and its implications for the southwestern clean energy base construction [3] - It emphasizes the expected growth in the GIL corridor and the automation of hydropower stations, which will drive demand for related equipment [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in GIL corridors, such as Pinggao Electric, China West Electric, and Changgao Electric, as well as those in hydropower station automation like Guodian NARI and Huazi Technology [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the ultra-high voltage (UHV) projects in the domestic power equipment sector, with a notable slowdown in project approvals until late June when two UHV projects were approved in quick succession. [1] - The expectation is for a significant acceleration in project approvals in the second half of the year, presenting a potential investment opportunity in related power equipment stocks. [1] Key Insights and Arguments - The total market size for domestic power grid equipment companies is estimated at approximately 1.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 13%. [3] - The investment from the State Grid and Southern Grid is projected to be around 800 billion yuan, with UHV investments expected to range between 100 billion to 140 billion yuan annually. [3][4] - The UHV sector is highlighted as having high attention compared to other investment demands, with a simplified research framework focusing on three keywords: ideal, reality, and deviation. [4][5] - The UHV investment for 2023 is expected to exceed 500 billion yuan, with significant project approvals anticipated in the latter part of the year. [6][9] Future Projections - For 2025, the UHV investment is projected to surpass 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating a growth trajectory from the 1.2 trillion yuan level in 2023. [9][10] - The contribution of major companies like Pinggao, Xudong, and NARI to profits is expected to increase, with profit contributions from UHV projects projected to rise by about 10% from 2023 to 2027. [11] Risks and Considerations - Several risks were identified, including regional challenges due to the length and complexity of the projects, environmental assessments, limited manpower from the State Grid, and potential changes in financing schemes. [13][14][15] - The approval and construction timelines are critical, with expectations that projects approved by October could lead to significant bidding for equipment by the end of the year. [9][11] Additional Important Points - The conference emphasized the importance of monitoring the approval pace and the subsequent impact on equipment orders and profit contributions for companies involved in UHV projects. [2][12] - The overall sentiment is optimistic regarding the UHV sector, with recommendations for investment in companies that are currently undervalued. [15]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese power grid infrastructure investment** and the **high voltage transmission sector**. The focus is on the performance and trends in the power equipment market, including bidding results and export data. Key Points and Arguments Power Grid Investment - From January to April, China's power grid investment reached **140.8 billion yuan**, reflecting a **14.6% year-on-year increase**. However, April's growth showed a slight decline compared to earlier months, where the growth rate was over **20%** [1] - The investment is expected to continue to rise throughout the year due to substantial plans from **State Grid** and **Southern Grid** [1] High Voltage Transmission - The **State Grid** has completed two batches of high voltage equipment bidding this year, totaling **1.48 billion yuan**, which is lower than last year's **1.7 billion yuan** for the same period [2] - The bidding for high voltage line materials has surged to **17.87 billion yuan**, setting a historical high, with the first batch at **7.74 billion yuan** and the second at **10.13 billion yuan** [2] Metering Equipment - The first batch of P4 metering equipment bidding totaled **7.5 billion yuan**, a **43.63% decrease** year-on-year. The A-grade meters saw a **48% drop** in bidding amounts [3][4] - The decline in bidding amounts is attributed to a significant drop in prices as manufacturers attempt to clear inventory [5] Digitalization and AI - The digitalization bidding reached **1.5 billion yuan**, a **16% increase** year-on-year, with digital equipment seeing a **13% increase** [7] - The demand for AI servers is expected to grow, with a focus on the development of the **Electricity Trading Platform 3.0** [9] Export Performance - From January to April, transformer exports reached **4.58 billion yuan**, a **33.65% increase** year-on-year, with liquid transformers showing the highest growth [15][16] - The export of electric meters also increased, with April's export amount reaching **980 million yuan**, a **34% year-on-year increase** [16] - High voltage switchgear exports reached **8.3 billion yuan**, reflecting a **44% increase** [17] Domestic and International Demand - Domestic demand remains strong despite price pressures, with expectations of continued growth in the second half of the year due to ongoing high voltage projects [24] - The relationship with the EU is stable, with China becoming the largest importer of transformers in the EU, surpassing Turkey [22] Future Outlook - The upcoming months are expected to see more high voltage projects initiated, leading to increased demand for related equipment and orders [24] - The overall industry is anticipated to face manageable pressure with significant growth opportunities in both domestic and international markets [23] Additional Important Insights - The digitalization efforts are being hampered by progress delays, but future demand for AI in the power sector is expected to remain robust [9] - The competitive pricing environment is likely to improve as new bidding cycles for meters are anticipated, which will shift focus from older models to newer ones [6]