Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reaffirm a cautious policy stance, with market expectations for a rate cut in July being low [1] - Key upcoming economic indicators include the U.S. June CPI and PPI data, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, and speeches from Fed officials [1] Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve noted that while inflation has eased in recent months, it remains above the long-term target of 2%, with short-term inflation expectations still high [1] - Economic growth is described as robust, with low unemployment rates and stable consumer and investment data, although risks from trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and tariff increases persist [1] Labor Market Data - For the week ending July 5, initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 227,000, slightly below the expected 235,000, with the previous value revised from 233,000 to 232,000 [1] International Economic Indicators - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $3,317.4 billion, rising by $32.2 billion or 0.98% from the end of May [1] - China's June CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1] Upcoming Events - On July 14, President Trump plans to make a "major statement" regarding Russia [1] - Key economic data releases include China's Q2 GDP year-on-year on July 15 and U.S. June CPI year-on-year on the same day [1] - Additional important events include U.S. June PPI year-on-year on July 16 and the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on July 17 [1]

2. 周二：①数据： 中国第二季度GDP、中国6月社会消费品零售总额、规模以上工业增加值。 美国6月 CPI、美国7月纽约联储制造业指数。加拿大6月CPI。②事件：1000亿元1年期中期借贷便利到期。国家 统计局公布70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告。 国新办就2025年上半年国民经济运行情况举行新闻 发布会。国内成品油将开启新一轮调价窗口。欧佩克月报。美联储官员柯林斯、鲍曼讲话。③财报：摩 根大通、花旗。 3. 周三：①数据： 美国6月PPI，美国API、EIA原油库存周报。英国6月CPI。欧元区5月贸易帐。②事 件： 美联储官员巴尔、柯林斯、洛根、哈玛克发表讲话。英国央行行长贝利发表讲话。③财报：摩根 士丹利、美国银行、高盛、阿斯麦。 金十数据整理：下周重要事件与数据预告——美国CPI和零售数据、中国GDP和贸易帐 1. 周一：①数据： 中国6月贸易帐、货币供应、社融、新增人民币贷款、全社会用电量。②事件： 美国 总统特朗普计划就俄罗斯问题发表"重大声明"。国新办分别就2025年上半年进出口情况、金融统计数据 情况举行新闻发布会。 5. 周五：①数据： 美国7月一年期通胀率预期初值、密歇根大学消费者信心指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights key economic indicators and events in China and the US, focusing on inflation data, GDP growth, and trade statistics, which are crucial for understanding market trends and potential investment opportunities [4][6][8]. Group 1: Economic Data in China - In June, China's imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, while exports increased by 4.8% [2]. - The GDP for the second quarter of 2023 showed a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [9]. - The social retail sales in June grew by 6.4%, marking the highest growth since December 2023, driven by policies promoting consumption [14]. - Real estate development investment in the first half of 2023 saw a significant decline of 10.7% [2]. Group 2: Economic Data in the US - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly above the previous month's 2.8% [2]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June increased by 2.5% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3]. - Retail sales in the US experienced a decline in May, with the largest drop since March 2023, primarily due to decreased automobile purchases [21]. Group 3: Key Events and Statements - The US Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated heightened economic uncertainty due to tariffs, affecting business and consumer decision-making [23]. - Trump's upcoming statement regarding Russia is anticipated to impact market sentiment and geopolitical dynamics [19][20]. - The European Central Bank's inflation data showed a 2% increase in June, aligning with its target and influencing future monetary policy decisions [25].

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Group 1 - Key Point 1: Focus on the economic outlook as Federal Reserve officials, including Waller and Daly, are scheduled to speak on July 11, 2025 [2] - Key Point 2: Key economic data releases from the UK include May GDP, manufacturing output, trade balance, and industrial output, all set to be announced at 14:00 [2] - Key Point 3: France's final CPI for June will be released at 14:45, while Switzerland's consumer confidence index for June will be available at 15:00 [2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The IEA will publish its monthly oil market report at 16:00, which may provide insights into global oil supply and demand trends [2] - Key Point 2: Canada's employment numbers for June will be released at 20:30, which could impact market sentiment regarding the Canadian economy [2] - Key Point 3: The total number of oil rigs in the US will be reported for the week ending July 11 at 01:00 the following day, indicating activity levels in the oil sector [2]

Economic Overview - Brunei's GDP in Q1 2025 decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, falling from 49.9 billion Brunei dollars to 49.0 billion Brunei dollars [1] - The oil and gas sector declined by 1.5%, while the non-oil and gas sector contracted by 2% [1] Sector Performance - The oil and gas industry's value dropped due to planned maintenance and unexpected equipment repairs, leading to a temporary decrease in natural gas and LNG production [1] - Oil production increased due to higher output from both new and existing oil wells [1] - The non-oil sector's contraction was primarily driven by significant declines in several industries: - Fisheries (-16%) - Other manufacturing (-14.6%) - Medical services (-11%) - Petrochemical manufacturing (-7.8%) - Financial services (-4.3%) - Business services (-4%) [1] Industrial Contribution - In Q1 2025, the industrial sector contributed 58.4% to GDP, the services sector contributed 40.5%, and agriculture, forestry, and fisheries contributed 1.1% [2] - The nominal GDP for the quarter was 48.5 billion Brunei dollars, showing a year-on-year decline [2] - The non-oil sector accounted for 54.2% of GDP, including downstream activities like petrochemical manufacturing, while the oil and gas sector represented 45.8% [2] Expenditure Analysis - The GDP growth rate by expenditure method declined due to a 13.2% contraction in gross capital formation, a 7% decrease in net exports of goods and services, and a 3% reduction in household final consumption expenditure [2] - In contrast, government final consumption increased by 0.8% [2]

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