Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rose from a revised 95.2 in June to 97.2 in July, indicating a gradual stabilization since April's decline [1] - The "present situation index" decreased by 1.5 points to 131.5, reflecting increased concerns about the current job market, while the "expectations index" increased by 4.5 points to 74.4, although it remains below the 80 threshold that typically signals a recession [1] - Only 14.3% of consumers rated the current business conditions as "bad," a slight decrease from 15% in June, while those rating it as "good" fell from 20.5% to 20.1% [1] Group 2 - Consumer confidence improvements were primarily driven by individuals aged 35 and older, with all income levels showing positive trends except for households earning less than $15,000 [2] - Concerns about tariffs remain high among consumers, with inflation expectations slightly decreasing to 5.8% in July from 5.9% in June, despite increased mentions of "high prices" and "inflation" [2] - Confidence in the stock market has improved, with 47.9% of respondents expecting stock prices to rise in the next 12 months, up from 37.6% three months prior [2] Group 3 - Consumers expect interest rates on mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards to rise, with the expectation for credit card rates being the most pronounced [3] - The assessment of household financial conditions remains stable but shows signs of fatigue, with a decrease in the proportion of consumers expecting a recession in the next 12 months, although it remains above 2024 levels [3] - There has been a decline in the willingness to purchase cars and homes, while service consumption intentions have decreased for the second consecutive month, particularly in dining out and travel-related expenses [3]

印度准备应对美国20%至25%的关税。印度预计到9月或10月与美国达成协议。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, particularly highlighting concerns over inflation and the impact of tariffs on low-priced consumer goods and durable imports [4]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rebounded to 61.8 in July, indicating a slight recovery in consumer sentiment, although it remains significantly lower than historical averages [6][9]. - Retail sales data for June showed a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, reaching $720.11 billion, driven by pre-tariff purchasing behavior [6][9]. - Inflationary pressures are evident, with the June CPI rising to 2.7%, primarily due to increased energy prices and the initial effects of tariffs on imported goods [9][12]. - Employment data showed a strong increase in non-farm payrolls, with 147,000 jobs added in June, although the growth was largely driven by government sectors, while the private sector showed signs of weakness [14][16]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Consumer confidence index increased to 61.8 in July, reflecting a two-month rebound [6]. - Retail sales for June reached $720.11 billion, up 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [6][9]. - Inflation rose to 2.7% in June, with energy prices being a significant contributor [9]. - Non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, with a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% [14]. Essential Consumption - Beverage sales showed robust growth, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in May, while tobacco sales slowed down [2][28]. - Alcohol sales in May were $6.31 billion, reflecting a modest growth of 0.8% year-on-year, but overall sales volume continues to decline [2][24]. - Dairy product shipments totaled $13.49 billion in May, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [28]. Optional Consumption - Restaurant sales in June reached $98.74 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer spending in this segment [3][32]. - Department store sales were $77.25 billion in June, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [3][34]. - Clothing retail sales in June were $26.34 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [3][36]. Market Performance - The optional consumption sector outperformed, with a 5.6% increase, while essential consumption saw a decline of 1.5% [4]. - The consumer sector remains under pressure from high valuations and inflationary concerns, particularly affecting low-priced consumer goods [4]. Employment and Credit - The labor market showed mixed signals, with strong overall job growth but significant weakness in the private sector [14][16]. - Consumer credit saw a sharp decline in May, with a 70% drop in growth compared to April, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending [20]. PMI and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June was 49.0, indicating continued contraction, while the services PMI returned to expansion at 50.8 [22][23].

Core Insights - Procter & Gamble (P&G) is experiencing a noticeable decline in consumer spending, indicating economic pressure on various income groups [1][2] - The company's net sales for Q4 increased by 2% to $20.9 billion, slightly above market expectations, with earnings per share rising by 17% to $1.48, largely due to a significant restructuring charge [1] - P&G forecasts sales growth for FY2026 to be between 1% and 5%, with earnings per share growth projected at 3% to 9% [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are depleting inventories, postponing non-essential purchases, and reducing store visits to avoid buying unnecessary items [1] - Both low-income and high-income consumers are seeking value, but they face different economic constraints [2] Market Conditions - Demand in the U.S. and Western Europe is slowing due to unstable macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical issues, and changing consumer dynamics [2] - P&G anticipates a $1 billion increase in annual costs due to tariffs, a revision from the previous estimate of $1 billion to $1.5 billion [1] Leadership Changes - CEO Jon Moeller will transition to Executive Chairman in January, with COO Shailesh Jejurikar taking over as CEO [2] - Under Moeller's leadership, P&G navigated post-pandemic sales surges and rising costs, with the company's stock price increasing approximately 13% during his tenure [2] Pricing Strategy - Starting this month, P&G will raise prices on about a quarter of its products in the U.S. to offset costs from new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [2]

| Millio | >国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月29日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属窄幅波动。近期地缘风险相对平稳,关税谈判有序推进,中美经贸会谈在瑞典斯德哥尔摩开始举 行,避险需求回落压制黄金表现,预计短期贵金属维持震荡走势。本周重点聚焦美联储会议和美国非农就业 等一系列重要数据发布。今晚关注美国6月JOLTs职位空缺数。 ★关税 -- 1孟加拉国欲购波音飞机,争取美国降低关税。②韩国提出"让美国造船业再次伟大",力争尽 快达成关税协议。韩国总统办公室表示，美国贸易谈判包括增加国防开支和购买美国武器。③美欧仍在就葡 萄酒和烈酒的关税豁免进行讨论。④特朗普：我们将在近期宣布对药品征收关税；全球关税将在15-20%左 右。⑤加拿大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly, demand will not change significantly, and with anti - involution speculation, lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,017.5 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars [3] - The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest was 96,376 lots, down 5,605 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 2,614 lots, up 825 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 60,932 tons, up 973 tons [3] - The SHFE inventory was 63,254 tons, up 919 tons; the LME lead inventory was 263,650 tons, down 2,625 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,775 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,970 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract was - 125 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 27.31 dollars/ton, down 3.89 dollars [3] - The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan was 16,179 yuan, up 83 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) was 16,760 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 73.81%, up 2.97 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.35 million tons, up 0.03 million tons [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports was - 60 dollars/kiloton, down 10 dollars; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons [3] - The global lead mine output was 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the lead ore import volume was 11.97 million tons, up 2.48 million tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries was 10,182.14 yuan/ton, up 23.21 yuan [3] - The export volume of batteries was 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy was 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells was 1,771.66 points, up 11.26 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 0.1666 million vehicles [3] - The monthly new energy vehicle output was 1.647 million vehicles, up 0.073 million vehicles [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump believes the Fed must cut interest rates this week [3] - Bangladesh wants to buy Boeing planes and hopes the US will lower tariffs; South Korea aims to reach a tariff agreement with the US; the US and the EU are discussing tariff exemptions for wine and spirits; Trump plans to impose tariffs on drugs; Canada - US trade negotiations are tense; Chile expects copper tariff exemptions [3] - Trump is disappointed with Putin and is considering giving Russia less than two weeks to reach a cease - fire agreement [3] 3.7 View Summary - Primary lead production has declined due to falling lead prices, and secondary lead supply is tight due to scarce raw materials and slow resumption of production [3] - The lead battery industry is approaching the peak season, but actual demand is weak, and inventory is rising, indicating slow demand [3] - Shanghai lead supply is expected to decline slightly, demand will remain stable, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [3]

Group 1 - The article reports that the Shaolin Temple has appointed Master Yinle as the new abbot following a democratic evaluation process by the temple's community [1] - This appointment is in accordance with the "Regulations on the Appointment of Abbot in Han Chinese Buddhist Temples" [1] Group 2 - The article mentions ongoing investigations involving the former abbot, Shi Yongxin, by multiple departments [1] - It highlights significant market events, including a "super week" with major developments in China and the US, and mentions the impact of these events on the stock market [1]

智通财经7月29日电，日本谈判代表赤泽亮正表示，需关注关税带来的下行风险，贸易协议在一定程度 上缓解了不确定性。 ...

Group 1: International Gold Market - International gold price fluctuated and closed down at $3314.18 per ounce, with a high of $3345.35 and a low of $3301.47 during the trading day [1][9] - The COMEX gold futures closed at $3314.00 per ounce [9] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings stood at 956.23 tons [9][10] Group 2: Currency and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 495.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan after 170.7 billion yuan matured [2][10] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1729 against the USD, down 50 basis points from the previous trading day, with the USD index rising by 1.02% to 98.6694 [15][2] Group 3: Macro Events and Trade Agreements - Trump announced that the U.S. will soon impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with global tariffs expected to be around 15-20% [2][17] - The EU and U.S. have established a general framework for a trade agreement, but specific details, including those related to alcoholic beverages, are still under negotiation [2][17] - The trade agreement includes a $750 billion energy purchase commitment and a $600 billion investment commitment from the EU, which may increase energy costs in Europe and accelerate capital outflow, negatively impacting the European economy [2][17] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - U.S. major stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow down 0.14% at 44,837.56 points, S&P 500 up 0.02% at 6,389.77 points, and Nasdaq up 0.33% at 21,178.58 points [16] - Chinese A-shares saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44% [16]

#报告 TS Lombard点评美国欧盟贸易协议：15%的关税是真的，剩下的都是假象。 https://t.co/1UKkZhbpODNone (@None):None ...