美国财长贝森特：欧盟在贸易谈判中表现得非常顽固。 ...

Market Overview - US stock market experienced volatility with mixed performance across major indices on June 12 [1] - Geopolitical risks have raised concerns, leading to a narrowing of gains in the US stock market, while oil prices rebounded following reports of potential military action by Israel against Iran [2] - The US dollar index fell to a three-year low, indicating traders' belief that the Federal Reserve has room to cut interest rates if economic growth remains weak [3] Inflation and Economic Indicators - US inflation remained moderate in May, suggesting that tariffs have not significantly increased consumer and business prices; the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.1%, below the median economist forecast of 0.2% [5] - Continuous lower-than-expected inflation data provides the Federal Reserve with the flexibility to maintain its current stance, as long as inflation does not rise significantly [6] - Despite a strong job market, there is no urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, although the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits reached its highest level since 2021 [6] Corporate Performance - Oracle's stock surged approximately 14%, reaching a record high after the company reported better-than-expected revenue and profit for Q4 of fiscal year 2024, indicating continued growth in its cloud business [6] - The CEO of Oracle projected that cloud infrastructure revenue could grow over 70% by fiscal year 2026, with a current growth rate of 52% [6] Trade Policy and Federal Reserve - Trump's unilateral tariff threats appear to be limiting larger gains in the stock market, with Wall Street closely monitoring developments in trade policy, particularly between the US and China [7] - Trump expressed willingness to extend the July 8 deadline for trade negotiations but indicated that such an extension may not be necessary [7] - Trump stated he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell but criticized the Fed for being slow to act on interest rate cuts, despite evidence of cooling inflation [8][9]

加拿大总理卡尼表示，美国和加拿大之间的贸易谈判取得了进展。 ...

美元指数跌0.74%，现报97.90，报道称7月最后期限临近，印度和美国在贸易谈判中立场加强。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by U.S. Chief Negotiator Bessent regarding the extension of the tariff exemption period reveals the U.S. government's urgent desire to reach trade agreements with its partners, highlighting its vulnerabilities in international trade negotiations [1][11]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Negotiation Strategy - Bessent's early departure from the London talks was to return to Washington to testify before Congress, but the real intent was to encourage other trade partners to engage in negotiations with the U.S. [3] - Currently, 18 major trade partners are in negotiations with the U.S., and the government is willing to extend deadlines for those genuinely interested in reaching agreements [3][5]. - The "final deadline" refers to the 90-day exemption period announced by Trump, which is set to end on July 9, after which tariffs will be imposed [3][5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing the Extension Decision - The U.S. is feeling pressure as the 90-day exemption period is nearing its end, and there are few countries willing to negotiate, prompting the need for an extension to save face internationally [5]. - The success of the U.S.-China talks in London provides a favorable backdrop for the U.S. to encourage other trade partners to negotiate, presenting a united front after dealing with China [7]. - Bessent's advocacy for the exemption period means that failing to secure substantial trade agreements within this timeframe could jeopardize his political career and the administration's credibility [7]. Group 3: Implications of the Announcement - The decision to extend the exemption period may expose the U.S.'s urgent need for trade agreements, potentially backfiring and revealing weaknesses in its negotiation stance [11]. - The successful outcomes of the U.S.-China negotiations may lead other countries to adjust their negotiation strategies with the U.S., making future negotiations more challenging for the Trump administration [11].

金十数据6月12日讯，越南贸易部长阮鸿延会见了耐克(NKE.N)和沃尔玛百货(WMT.N)的高管，这是针 对美国企业的重大魅力攻势的之一，目的是在高风险的贸易谈判之前争取支持，以避免高额关税。根据 越南贸易部网站上的一份声明，阮鸿延呼吁这些公司"表达他们的强烈支持，推动谈判进程，尽快达成 公平、平衡和可持续的协议"。 越南贸易部长会见耐克和沃尔玛的高管 ...

【综合快讯】 1. 特朗普关税大限将至，欧盟据称拒绝妥协，拟推迟贸易谈判至 7 月之后。据报道，欧盟明确表态拒 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 06 月 12 日 铝：关注中美谈判进展 氧化铝：偏弱运行 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20250 | 270 | 175 | ୧୧୧ | -380 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20250 | ー | l | ー | । | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2517 | 23 | 30 | 99 | -106 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 198643 | 49434 | 38067 | 82992 | 82844 | | | | 沪铝 ...

Group 1 - The G7 summit will take place in Alberta, Canada, from June 15 to 17, marking Prime Minister Carney's first multilateral diplomatic event since taking office [1] - Carney's election victory was significantly influenced by the backlash against Trump's aggressive trade policies, which shifted public focus from the Liberal Party's previous governance issues to a strong response against the U.S. [1] - Alberta province plays a crucial role in U.S.-Canada relations, being a major source of oil and gas, contributing to over 80% of Canada's oil production in 2023, with approximately 4 million barrels of oil exported daily to the U.S. [3] Group 2 - Carney's administration aims to strengthen economic ties with European allies, breaking the norm by visiting Paris and London instead of Washington for his first official trip [2] - The G7 summit will include leaders from South Africa, Australia, South Korea, and India, all of whom have complex relationships with the Trump administration, particularly regarding trade policies [5][6] - Japan has been engaged in trade negotiations with the U.S. since early this year, but significant progress has not been made, highlighting the challenges faced by allied nations in dealing with U.S. trade policies [4] Group 3 - The relationship between Alberta and the federal Liberal government is strained, with ongoing conflicts over energy policies and federal funding [3] - Australia's Prime Minister Albanese has taken a strong stance against U.S. tariff increases, emphasizing the need to protect national interests despite being a U.S. ally [6] - South Korea's new President Lee Jae-myung faces challenges in balancing U.S. relations while protecting domestic interests amid slow trade negotiations [7] Group 4 - India's Prime Minister Modi has been invited to the G7 summit, with the backdrop of strained relations between Canada and India due to recent diplomatic incidents [8] - Modi's government aims to navigate complex international relations, balancing ties with the U.S. while addressing regional conflicts and trade issues [8]

从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F0314 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest US May CPI was lower than expected, with the core CPI's month - on - month growth rate significantly decreasing, leading to a short - term slowdown in inflation pressure and the US dollar index remaining volatile [1][14][17][19]. - Affected by the rapid progress of Sino - US negotiations, the risk appetite of the stock market has risen again. In the future, the strength of China's domestic economic recovery will gradually play a more important role in pricing. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of incremental policies [2][28]. - The market does not think the result of Sino - US trade negotiations is beyond expectations. Coupled with the news that the central bank is evaluating the demand for 6 - month reverse repurchase, treasury bond futures are relatively strong [3]. - Steel prices are oscillating. Although the current fundamental contradictions are not significant, the rainy season in East China has significantly suppressed the demand for building materials, and concerns about weakening external demand are difficult to reverse, so there is limited room for price rebound [4][40]. - After the stabilization of the futures market last week, the price of FMB ore has rebounded slightly recently. It remains to be seen whether the ore price can stabilize at $600 [5][65]. - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory has decreased significantly. Tensions in the Middle East have led to market concerns and a sharp increase in oil prices [6][70]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US budget deficit in May was $316 billion, a reduction compared to May 2024. The total customs duties in May reached a record $23 billion, almost four times that of May 2024. The budget expenditure in May was at a record high for that month [13]. - The US May CPI was lower than market expectations. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, mainly driven by geopolitical risks. The market's concerns about the Fed's monetary policy have weakened, and it is expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged in the June meeting. Gold has not broken out of the volatile range, and the market's long - short game has increased. Short - term gold prices are still in a volatile range with increased market fluctuations [14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US government's fiscal deficit in May further expanded. Although the deficit in May 2025 decreased by 9% compared to May 2024, the annual deficit increased by 14% year - on - year [16]. - The US May CPI was lower than expected, with the core CPI's month - on - month growth rate significantly decreasing, indicating a short - term slowdown in inflation pressure. The US dollar index will remain volatile in the short term [17][19][20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Tensions in the Middle East have sharply escalated. The US has ordered the partial evacuation of embassy staff in Iraq and allowed military families to leave the Middle East [21]. - The US May CPI has been lower than expected for four consecutive months. The CPI growth rate was lower than expected, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased. However, the slow progress of US - EU negotiations and the deterioration of the Middle East situation have led to a decline in US stocks. US stocks have not broken out of the volatile market, and it is not recommended to chase the high [22][24][25]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China will implement zero - tariff policies on 100% of tariff items for 53 African countries with diplomatic relations [26]. - Sino - US negotiations have reached a framework on the Geneva Consensus. Affected by the rapid progress of Sino - US negotiations, the risk appetite of the stock market has risen again. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly to cope with the rapidly rotating market [28][29]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 164 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 11, with a net withdrawal of 50.9 billion yuan [30]. - Sino - US negotiations have basically reached a framework on implementing the Geneva Consensus. The market has strengthened due to the logic of disappointing Sino - US trade negotiations and weak domestic economic data. It is recommended to actively seize the opportunity to buy bonds and accumulate long positions [31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release its export sales report on Thursday. The market expects that the net increase in US soybean export sales for the current year as of June 5 will be between 1 - 5 million tons, and for the 25/26 year, it will be between 0 - 2 million tons [32]. - On June 11, the transaction volume of soybean meal was large. The import of Brazilian soybeans has decreased in cost, and domestic funds have shown a clear trend of buying soybean meal and selling soybean oil. The futures price is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, the weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the USDA monthly supply - demand report [33][35][36]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The production of Malaysian palm oil from June 1 - 10 decreased by 17.24% month - on - month. The palm oil market adjusted yesterday, with palm oil leading the decline. It is believed that palm oil is in the bottom - building stage, and long positions can be considered [37]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The steel price continues to oscillate, and there is limited room for price rebound. It is recommended to use the spot end for hedging on price rebounds [38][40]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of early June, over 90% of Australia's new cotton has been harvested, and the total output is expected to be 5.4 million bales. As of June 7, the sowing progress of US new cotton is still behind. The external market is expected to remain weakly volatile at a low level in the short term. Domestically, the textile off - season atmosphere is strong, and the market is expected to be cautiously optimistic [41][43][44]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On June 11, the price of steam coal in the northern ports remained stable. The coal price has temporarily stabilized, but there is a risk of a second bottom - hitting in summer. Attention should be paid to the growth rate of thermal power consumption and the substitution of new energy [45]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Many automobile enterprises have promised to pay within 60 days. The overall market sentiment has eased, and the iron ore futures price has rebounded slightly. The fundamentals are seasonally weak, and the market is expected to remain volatile. An oscillating market mindset is recommended [46]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - In May, the sales volume and revenue of some pig - raising enterprises decreased year - on - year. In the short to medium term, the price may be at its most pessimistic from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. In the long term, the industry bottom may be approaching. It is recommended to wait and see [47][48][49]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch production start - up rate has decreased, and inventory has been reduced. The supply - demand structure is improving. CS07 - C07 is expected to remain volatile at a low level, and CS09 - C09 is expected to recover, but there are uncertainties in regional price differences [50][51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports continues to decline rapidly, and the spot price of corn has strengthened. The 09 contract is expected to be strong first and then weak, with an oscillating trend. It is recommended to hold the 07 long - positions with low costs and wait and see, and not to transfer the long - positions to the 09 contract [52][53]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing three major changes. In June, the fundamentals are bearish for the futures market. Whether leading enterprises can jointly cut production to support prices will have a significant impact on the fundamentals. A short - term short and long - term long strategy is recommended, with the catalyst/risk being the production - cut actions of leading enterprises [54][55][56]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In May, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. In June, some silicon plants in Sichuan have resumed production, while most in Yunnan are still observing. The demand is not significantly improved. The futures price is expected to be volatile at a low level, and short - selling on price rebounds can be considered [57][58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On June 10, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $27.55 per ton. The demand for lead has bottomed out and shows no improvement, while supply disruptions are the main factor. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and gradually pay attention to mid - line low - buying opportunities [59][60]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On June 10, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $33.05 per ton. The zinc price has oscillated upwards, mainly due to improved macro - sentiment. In June, the supply of zinc ingots is expected to peak, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will gradually emerge. Short - selling on price rebounds is recommended [61][62]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Philippines has removed the ban on nickel ore exports from its mining fiscal system bill. The LME has reduced inventory, and SHFE has increased warehouse receipts. The nickel price is expected to be volatile at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side of the futures market and consider selling put options on price dips [63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027. The inventory accumulation pressure in June has been significantly relieved, and the market may be in a tight balance or slight de - stocking state. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on price rebounds [64][65]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China is stable, and the US C3 inventory has increased. The domestic futures price is expected to be supported by the strengthening of oil prices [66][67]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US has authorized the voluntary evacuation of military families from the Middle East. The EIA commercial crude oil inventory has decreased significantly. Oil prices have risen significantly due to Middle East tensions, and short - term price fluctuations are expected to increase [68][70][71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On June 11, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was partially adjusted downwards. The supply is stable, and the demand is average. The decline of the 09 contract is limited due to good supply - demand and excessive discount [72][74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market has mostly declined. The futures price is expected to be volatile, as the fundamental changes are limited and the macro - sentiment has temporarily stopped improving [75][76]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder in the domestic market is oscillating. The futures price is also expected to be volatile, as the fundamental changes are limited and the macro - sentiment has temporarily stopped improving [77]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - On June 11, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increased. The styrene futures price is oscillating upwards. It is recommended to pay attention to the potential compression of intermediate - link profits after the return of downstream plants and the potential impact of new production capacity in the medium term [78][80]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with some local decreases. The industry is facing high supply pressure and low processing fees. It is recommended to consider taking long positions in bottle - chip processing fees on price dips [81][83]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On June 11, the soda ash market in Shahe was average, and the futures price was oscillating. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell on price rebounds in the medium term [84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - On June 11, the price of float glass in Shahe was mostly stable. The futures price is slightly oscillating, and the fundamental driving force is weak. With the arrival of the high - temperature and rainy season, the demand for glass will decline seasonally, and the supply - demand imbalance will intensify. The spot price may continue to decline [85][86].