每经记者｜高涵 每经编辑｜何小桃 "我清空了美股，但我绝不会卖掉金银铜。" 在全球金融局势波谲云诡的2026年开年，现年84岁的"商品大王"吉姆·罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）给出了他的生存指南。 这位传奇投资家26岁只身闯荡华尔街，早在上世纪80年代就以精准抄底奥地利股市而一战成名，并曾准确预测1987年全球股灾和2008年美国次贷危机。 吉姆·罗杰斯 图片来源：视觉中国 2025年12月，吉姆·罗杰斯再次对全球经济发出警告。他认为，美国作为世界历史上最大的债务国，其高达38万亿美元的国债规模正将国家引向深渊，并 预言下一次危机将是他"一生中见过的最惨烈的一次"，其根源在于全球令人窒息的债务规模。 2026年2月6日，《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD）对吉姆·罗杰斯进行了专访。在访谈中，他详细阐述了自己对潜在危机的看法、具体的避险策略 以及看好金属的底层逻辑。 面对潜在的危机，吉姆·罗杰斯透露，他已经清空了全部美股持仓，转而将黄金、白银和铜等实物商品视为"完美的保险单"，并计划将其作为遗产留给后 代。 谈商品：金银铜是"避难所"，不交易、只持有 NBD：2026年开年以来，国际金价剧烈波动，你怎么看？ ...

融智投资FOF市场周报2026年01月第5周 市场概览 股票市场 A股市场整体呈震荡调整格局，主要宽基指数多数收跌，但日均成交额仍维持在3万亿元以上的较高水平，显示市 场交投活跃。板块分化剧烈，市场主线正从周期向科技成长切换。 债券市场 商品市场 数据来源：高阶分析。本资料仅提供投资者自研使用。 第1页 整体表现与结构分化：上证指数全周微跌0.44%，深证成指下跌1.62%，创业板指表现相对抗跌。风格上，大 盘价值风格占优，沪深300指数收涨，而代表中小盘的中证1000指数跌幅较深。行业层面，石油石化、通信、 煤炭等板块涨幅居前；而前期涨幅较大的国防军工、电力设备、汽车等板块回调明显。 市场调整主要受两大因素冲击。一是贵金属价格暴跌引发的连锁反应。周五黄金、有色金属板块突发跳水，拖 累指数，但科技与农业板块迅速接力，形成"V型"反弹，显示出市场内板块轮动加快，承接力尚存。二是1月 PMI数据重回收缩区间，加剧了市场对经济基本面的担忧，压制了整体风险偏好。 10年期国债收益率下行约1.86个基点至1.81%，主要受益于权益市场调整带来的"股债跷跷板"效应，以及对 央行可能推出新货币政策工具的预期。然而，1年期国 ...

In 2022, cryptocurrency prices struggled as interest rates looked to move higher. When rates began to top, crypto prices bottomed and then rose in 2023 and throughout 2024. The introduction of bitcoin ETFs initially helped boost the price of bitcoin, ethereum and other cryptocurrencies, but prices deteriorated throughout the end of 2025 while other assets, including precious metals took off to new highs.Major stock indexes such as the S&P 500 spent most of 2022 in a funk due to rising rates, but they fared ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a "contraction" in commodity markets, with a focus on the differentiated performance of long-end bonds in the debt market [3][4] - Recent macro data has shown positive trends, with social financing and export figures exceeding expectations, indicating a recovery in economic sentiment [3][4] - The report notes a significant increase in foreign exchange settlements, reaching the highest monthly value since 2014, driven by strong export growth and expectations of RMB appreciation [3][4] Commodity Market Analysis - Commodity prices have cooled down recently, with a notable "contraction" in market activity, particularly in the precious and non-ferrous metals sectors [3][4] - The South China Commodity Index has risen by 3.7%, with precious metals and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while energy, black metals, and agricultural products have shown weaker performance [3][4] - The report identifies a divergence in the performance of different metal categories, with precious metals outperforming non-ferrous and black metals [4] Debt Market Insights - The debt market is currently in a relatively balanced range, with 30-year government bond yields around 2.3% and 10-year yields returning to the central bank's target range of approximately 1.85% [4][5] - There is limited room for further declines in short-term bond yields, as market participants shift from a bearish to a more neutral stance [5] - The report suggests that the recent buying activity from major banks, particularly in the 7-10 year maturity range, is providing crucial support for current interest rates [5] Investment Strategies - The report recommends focusing on high-odds, trading-oriented small metals and silver if risk preferences shift, while suggesting a focus on high-probability copper and aluminum if conditions remain stable [4][5] - The performance of perpetual bonds and secondary capital bonds is highlighted as a key area to watch, with strong buying interest from specific investor segments [6]

Core Viewpoint - The dialogue emphasizes a pragmatic and optimistic investment approach, focusing on identifying and leveraging "expectation gaps" in low-attention assets as key investment opportunities for 2026 [4][6]. Group 1: Market Outlook for 2026 - Investor sentiment towards Chinese assets is warming, with expectations for a "slow bull" market emerging as macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns become less pressing [5][9]. - The market logic is shifting from valuation recovery to profit-driven growth, necessitating a more nuanced understanding of industry and company performance [5][9]. - Liquidity is expected to be a significant supportive factor for the stock market, with both institutional and individual investors showing increased willingness to allocate funds to equities [13][14]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The focus for the next 6-12 months is on identifying "expectation gaps" in various sectors, particularly in low-attention assets that have not been fully recognized by the market [6][16]. - Key areas of interest include AI applications, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumer trends, with a particular emphasis on structural opportunities that arise from supply-demand constraints [7][22]. - The commodity bull market narrative is being driven by AI and material demand, with potential investment opportunities in mining and exploration sectors expected to yield significant returns [25]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - The concept of "new consumption" is evolving, with structural changes in consumer demographics and preferences creating new investment opportunities [27][28]. - The "people, place, and goods" framework is used to analyze consumption opportunities, highlighting the importance of understanding consumer behavior and market connections [28][29]. - Sustainable growth in consumer sectors is anticipated, particularly in areas that cater to younger and older demographics, as well as products that enhance personal satisfaction [30][31]. Group 4: Risk Management and Investment Strategy - The importance of recognizing crowded trades and consensus risks is emphasized, as these can lead to market volatility when expectations shift [32]. - Developing investment contingency plans and maintaining a proactive approach to market changes are crucial for navigating uncertainties [33]. - The company advocates for a team-based investment approach, leveraging diverse expertise to adapt to complex market scenarios [37].

Core Insights - The widespread power outage in the São Paulo region since December 10 has significantly impacted the local economy, particularly in the commerce and services sectors [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The São Paulo State Federation of Commerce, Services, and Tourism estimates total losses could reach 1.5 billion Brazilian Reais, with the services sector accounting for approximately 1 billion Reais and the commerce sector around 510 million Reais [1] - If inventory and fixed costs are included, the actual impact on the economy may be even higher [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Losses - The São Paulo Commercial Association reported that the commerce sector experienced sales losses of about 51.7 million Reais within two days [1] - The state hotel, restaurant, and bar association estimates that over 5,000 businesses have been affected, with related losses exceeding 100 million Reais [1]

Group 1 - The overall asset performance indicates that various asset classes have entered a period of fluctuation, with the equity market experiencing a high-level consolidation phase, primarily driven by the technology sector, while consumer and cyclical sectors remain weak [1][6]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was weaker than expected, limiting its positive impact on the U.S. and global economies, which in turn affects the capital markets [1][6]. - The Central Economic Work Conference in China reiterated a stable growth approach, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and improving investment, although the implementation of these policies may take time to materialize [2][10]. Group 2 - The A-share market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with limited substantial positive news and a preference for stability as the new year approaches [2][10]. - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, recommending maintaining positions in the technology sector while cautiously considering opportunities in the consumer sector due to recent positive macro data [2][11]. - The technology sector is expected to remain a core driver of market performance, with significant opportunities arising from national competition and domestic innovation [10][11]. Group 3 - The bond market is following the trends of the equity market, showing a clear negative correlation, and is expected to remain under pressure without significant positive catalysts [3][32]. - The bond market's configuration suggests limited upward potential in the short term, but it may serve as a stabilizing option against equity market volatility [32]. Group 4 - The commodity market is experiencing a return to a fluctuating trend, with precious metals like silver supporting the upward movement of the precious metals index, while energy and chemical commodities are underperforming [4][41]. - The report anticipates that gold may continue to rise in the long term, driven by a decoupling from the U.S. dollar, although the overall strength of the commodity market will depend on the performance of metals and agricultural products [41][45].

2025年临近尾声，2026年大类资产配置提上日程。2026年，A股市场将呈现怎样的走势？哪类资产性价比更高？该如何构建组合以把握机会、抵御潜在风 险？ 国泰基金曾辉：国内A股可能明年上半年继续震荡，下半年在经济复苏预期的推动下再上一个台阶。 诺德基金郑源：在香港上市的内地企业股价或将会同时受益于国内经济上行、全球流动性宽松，以及估值优势，值得关注。 平安基金吴心洋：展望2026年，对国内权益、海外权益、黄金等商品、美债均偏乐观，国内债市预计震荡为主。 嘉实基金赵迁：2026年最大的不确定性因素来自海外AI叙事的持续性和通胀背景下的美联储决策。 华商基金孙志远：2026年更倾向于配置中国的权益资产，尤其是与价格相关度高的板块。 为此，中国基金报记者采访了东方红资产管理董事总经理、多元投资部总经理、基金经理邓炯鹏，国泰基金多资产配置部负责人曾辉，诺德基金FOF投资 总监郑源，华商基金资产配置部总经理、华商安远稳进一年持有混合（FOF）基金经理孙志远，嘉实基金FOF基金经理赵迁，平安基金FOF投资部基金经 理吴心洋等六位公募FOF基金经理，共同研判2026年的投资脉络和市场机会。 东方红资产管理邓炯鹏：2026年 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around global asset allocation, focusing on the stock and gold markets, particularly in the context of China and the United States. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Market Trends**: The global stock and gold markets are benefiting from a technological revolution, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks. Chinese stocks are performing better than U.S. stocks. Recommendations include overweighting gold and Chinese tech stocks while underweighting commodities and U.S. dollar assets, a strategy that has been validated by market prices [1][2][28]. 2. **Current Market Conditions**: U.S., A-share, and Hong Kong stocks are in a bull market, with A-share and Hong Kong stocks nearing historical medians. The U.S. stock market and gold have had prolonged bull markets but still have room for growth. The key to determining the peak of Chinese stocks lies in economic policies, liquidity, and earnings valuations [1][6][18]. 3. **Investment Concerns for 2026**: Two main concerns for 2026 are whether the bull markets in stocks and gold can continue and what measures to take if market conditions change. Recent pullbacks in Chinese, U.S. stocks, and gold indicate that the market is contemplating potential changes in future trends [3][4]. 4. **Valuation Analysis**: Current valuations show that gold, U.S. stocks, and Chinese bonds are relatively high, while U.S. bonds and commodities are undervalued. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are at moderate valuations. The geopolitical events can impact markets, typically negatively affecting stocks while boosting gold and commodities [4][22][23]. 5. **Asset Class Switching Patterns**: Historical data indicates that U.S. stocks have a longer bull market duration (84% of the time) compared to the more volatile Chinese stocks. The switching patterns of different asset classes require careful monitoring of market peaks [5][6]. 6. **Top Prediction Challenges**: Predicting market tops is complicated by various bullish narratives and the difficulty of timely decision-making even when correct signals are received. The need for a multi-dimensional approach to analyze market signals is emphasized [10][11][12]. 7. **Impact of U.S. Federal Reserve Policies**: The Fed's monetary policy is crucial for asset prices. Current loose policies support asset prices, but potential tightening could pressure both stocks and gold. The Fed's personnel changes may lead to a more dovish stance in the long term [20][21]. 8. **China's Economic Policy Influence**: China's incremental policies must meet expectations to avoid negative impacts on macro liquidity. The government is committed to stabilizing growth, which is expected to support the economy and maintain stable M1 and M2 growth rates [21][24]. 9. **Geopolitical Events**: Recent geopolitical events, such as trade wars, have significantly influenced market trends, generally negatively impacting stocks while benefiting gold and commodities [23]. 10. **Valuation Concerns**: High valuations in gold and U.S. stocks increase the risk of market corrections. However, there is no clear evidence that these factors will reverse the current bull market trends, suggesting a continued overweight in Chinese stocks and gold [25][28]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Commodity Allocation Strategy**: Increasing commodity allocations is recommended to hedge against potential changes in stock and gold bull markets. Commodities are currently undervalued and could benefit from various scenarios, including better-than-expected economic performance or geopolitical shocks [26][29]. 2. **Specific Asset Class Recommendations**: - **Chinese Stocks**: Maintain an overweight position with a more balanced style, anticipating value and cyclical sectors to catch up. - **Chinese Bonds**: Downgrade from standard to underweight due to better opportunities in other assets. - **U.S. Stocks**: Maintain a standard allocation, given the high valuations and better performance of non-dollar assets. - **Gold**: Continue to overweight but be cautious of volatility, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips rather than chasing prices [27][29].

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of identifying market tops for Chinese stocks and gold, emphasizing that economic and policy signals are crucial for making accurate predictions [1][10][40] - It highlights that the U.S. stock market has a long bull market duration, while Chinese stocks experience more frequent bull-bear switches, making timing more critical for Chinese stocks [5][10] - The analysis indicates that gold's bull and bear markets are lengthy with low switching frequency, suggesting that identifying tops is also significant for gold [1][5] Group 2 - Four key factors are identified that could potentially alter the bull market trends for stocks and gold in 2026: growth direction, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [2][39] - The current economic conditions in China are characterized as a "weak recovery," while the U.S. is moving towards "stagflation," which could impact the performance of stocks and gold differently [2][41] - The article suggests that while there are no immediate signals indicating a top for the current bull markets, high valuations for gold may lead to increased volatility in the future [26][36][40] Group 3 - The asset allocation recommendation includes overweighting Chinese stocks and gold, while maintaining a neutral position in U.S. stocks and bonds, and adjusting commodity exposure to neutral [3][4] - The rationale for these recommendations is based on the ongoing AI technology wave and liquidity conditions benefiting Chinese stocks, while gold is supported by the current monetary policy environment [3][4] - The article notes that despite potential volatility, there are no clear signals indicating a market top for Chinese stocks or gold at this time [25][36]