Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the new gold tax policy is expected to bring structural changes to the market, affecting the behavior and cost structures of different participants in the gold trading ecosystem [7] Summary by Sections Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy, effective from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, exempts value-added tax (VAT) for transactions of standard gold through designated exchanges, while non-exchange sales will still incur VAT [1][2] - The policy distinguishes between "investment-type" and "non-investment-type" gold transactions, significantly impacting businesses that produce gold for jewelry or industrial use [2] Impact on Businesses - Non-investment gold businesses will face increased tax burdens, as the input VAT deduction rate for these companies will drop to 6%, compared to the standard 13% for general goods [2] - This change is likely to raise overall tax liabilities for companies primarily engaged in retail gold jewelry, prompting them to seek effective financial and risk management tools [2][3] Risk Management Tools - Companies can utilize gold futures for hedging against rising costs and price volatility, while gold options offer a way to manage price risks with limited upfront costs [3] - The new tax policy may accelerate the adoption of professional financial instruments among businesses, enhancing the overall maturity of market risk management [3] Individual Investor Implications - The new regulations may reshape the investment landscape for individual investors, as trading through exchanges will remain VAT-exempt, while purchases through non-exchange channels will include VAT [4] - The investment and "value preservation" functions of non-exchange gold purchases, such as jewelry, may weaken due to higher processing fees and embedded VAT, making them more akin to consumer goods [4] Market Dynamics - The new policy is expected to clarify the separation between "consumption gold" and "investment gold," potentially reducing the investment appeal of non-standard physical gold [4][5] - The differences in physical delivery processes between the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange may influence investor preferences, with the former offering more convenience and lower costs [5][6] Future Outlook - The new tax policy may lead to increased liquidity in exchange-based trading, while retail gold prices could rise as businesses pass on increased costs to consumers [6][7] - Long-term factors such as geopolitical uncertainties and rising debt pressures in major economies will continue to influence gold prices, necessitating a strategic adjustment by investors and businesses in response to the evolving market landscape [7]

Core Insights - The introduction of new tax regulations on gold is raising concerns among ordinary consumers and investors regarding its impact on the market [2][3] - The World Gold Council reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand for the first three quarters of this year, reaching 1,313 tons, with a significant 44% increase in total demand value, hitting a record high of $146 billion [2] - The new tax regulations aim to clarify the distinction between investment gold and non-investment gold, with specific tax exemptions for standard gold traded on exchanges [3] Group 1 - The new tax regulations highlight the difference between investment gold (bars, coins) and non-investment gold (jewelry), with the former exempt from value-added tax when purchased on exchanges [3] - The policy adjustment is seen as a refinement of existing regulations, promoting a clearer and healthier investment environment in the gold market [3] - The regulations are expected to discourage speculative behaviors and improve market order, benefiting long-term industry development [4] Group 2 - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have led to some investors being misled by the notion of "only rising" gold prices, emphasizing the importance of understanding the nature of gold as an investment versus a consumer product [3] - The new regulations serve as a warning to intermediaries in the gold market against misleading practices, such as misrepresenting non-investment gold as investment gold [3] - Maintaining a rational mindset and strategic planning is crucial for investors in navigating the inherent price volatility of gold [4]

11月4日，深圳水贝黄金珠宝市场，消费者正在选购金饰。 吴家明/摄 就在3日，水贝市场的金饰克价突然大涨50元至70元。到了4日，水贝市场的金饰克价在990元左右，而 大盘价格为918元至920元之间，同日国际金价则变动不大。 "现在的990元价格就是税后价，主要是因为原材料成本中包含了税费。"盛经理表示，"以这个价格买金 饰，目前也只能开收据。如果需要开发票，只能在这个价格基础上再加7%。"有市场人士认为，税收新 政推动交易向合规的交易所渠道集中，而水贝商户多为中小经营者，难以直接对接交易所资源。 证券时报记者 吴家明 胡华雄 近日，财政部、国家税务总局发布《关于黄金有关税收政策的公告》，明确黄金有关税收政策。新政落 地后，黄金市场迅速发生连锁反应——从终端消费到投资渠道，从零售商家到黄金饰品生产企业，均发 生了一些变化。对此，证券时报记者进行了实探。 金饰"一夜提价" 在深圳水贝黄金珠宝市场，商户盛经理指着电子屏上的大盘价感叹："现在这里显示的还是大盘价，但 实际销售价格已经调整，未来可能不会再有按大盘价销售的黄金了。" 11月4日，记者来到深圳水贝黄金珠宝市场看到，现场人气依旧很高。不过，在这"高人气" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that gold prices have declined significantly, with spot gold falling below $3980 per ounce, a drop of over 9% from the high on October 20 [1] - The main reason for the deep correction in gold prices is attributed to high implied volatility and profit-taking after a substantial increase, leading to a weakening trend in capital inflow [1] - The geopolitical risks, particularly in US-China relations and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have shown signs of easing, which has influenced market pricing [1] Group 2 - Short-term gold prices remain relatively high with significant volatility, and a marginal decrease in geopolitical risks is noted [1] - Without unexpected positive factors, it is expected that London gold will consolidate and fluctuate until the end of the year, with potential for new highs in the first quarter of next year [1] - For gold prices to continue rising, two necessary conditions must be met: (1) implied volatility must return to levels seen in August-September; (2) new macroeconomic driving factors are required [1] Group 3 - Gold-related stocks have continued to decline, with Lingbao Gold down 4.27% to HKD 15.9, Jihai Resources down 3.55% to HKD 1.36, China Silver Group down 3.23% to HKD 0.6, and China Gold International down 2.65% to HKD 125 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to short-term factors, while long-term support remains intact, indicating potential investment opportunities despite current volatility [3]. Group 1: Short-term Factors - The gold price drop is driven by three main short-term factors: excessive prior gains leading to profit-taking, easing geopolitical risks prompting withdrawal of safe-haven investments, and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts resulting in higher 10-year Treasury yields [3]. - The recent drop in gold prices saw a single-day decline of 12%, the largest in 12 years, highlighting the volatility in the market [3]. Group 2: Long-term Support - Long-term support for gold remains strong, with global central banks expected to purchase over 1,000 tons of gold by 2025, and major countries like China and Poland continuing to increase their gold reserves [3]. - The U.S. debt, amounting to $37.9 trillion, raises concerns about the long-term credibility of the dollar, maintaining gold's appeal as a risk-hedging asset [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies for Current Holders - For holders of physical gold, the recommendation is to assess the "break-even point" and consider the purpose of the gold before deciding to sell, especially if it is investment-grade bullion with low premiums [6]. - Investors holding gold ETFs or funds should evaluate their positions based on their allocation; those with heavy exposure may consider reducing their holdings if prices continue to decline [6][8]. - For those with leveraged gold products, immediate stop-loss measures are advised to prevent significant losses [6]. Group 4: Recommendations for New Investors - New investors are advised to remain patient and avoid impulsive buying; a two-step approach is recommended: first assess the need to buy, then determine the timing and type of gold to purchase [8]. - It is suggested to focus on low-premium, easily liquidated products such as bank investment gold or gold ETFs, while avoiding high-premium jewelry or leveraged derivatives [8]. - A gradual investment strategy is encouraged, with a focus on maintaining a small portion of overall assets in gold to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [9].

Core Insights - A significant surge in gold prices has been observed, with investment gold bars rising from 9280 yuan to 10218 yuan within a single day, driven by new tax policies announced by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation [1][11][24] - The price of branded investment gold bars has exceeded 1000 yuan per gram, with some even surpassing 1200 yuan per gram, making them more expensive than gold jewelry [1][9][24] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the new tax policy, many investors expressed confusion and concern about the rapid price increases, with some noting that gold bars priced below 1000 yuan had nearly disappeared from the market [3][5][23] - Major banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, temporarily suspended certain gold investment services in response to market volatility, reflecting a cautious approach to risk management [13][24] Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy, effective from November 1, 2025, primarily targets investment gold transactions and does not affect the tax treatment of gold jewelry, which remains unchanged [11][24] - The policy specifies that value-added tax (VAT) will apply to standard gold transactions, while gold jewelry will continue to include VAT and consumption tax in its retail price [11] Global Context - The recent fluctuations in China's gold market are part of a broader trend, with international gold prices having increased by over 50% since 2025, marking the strongest rise in 46 years [15][16][24] - Factors contributing to the global gold price surge include expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, heightened demand for safe-haven assets, and ongoing purchases by central banks [17][20][24] Future Outlook - Experts predict that gold prices may continue to experience upward pressure, with some international investment banks projecting prices could reach 5000 USD per ounce [20][24] - While there is a potential for long-term price increases, analysts caution that the current volatility may not be suitable for short-term speculation, emphasizing the importance of treating gold as a long-term asset allocation tool [21][24]

2025.11. 04 本文字数：2562，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 封图 | AI生成 黄金税收新政备受关注，普通投资者将受到哪些影响？ 在受访人士看来，此次税收新政进一步明确了"场内交易"与"场外交易"、"投资性黄金"与"非投资性 黄金"的增值税征收规则，总体更鼓励场内黄金交易。尤其对于黄金投资参与者，考虑到黄金饰品、 部分投资金条等面临成本上升，场内非实物投资将有效降低税负。 在此背景下，黄金ETF吸引力预计还将提升，不少机构判断未来会有更多投资需求转向此类投资工 具。世界黄金协会数据显示，三季度全球黄金需求刷新历史纪录，投资者对实物黄金ETF的持续追捧 是重要驱动力。 从国内黄金ETF来看，随着申购增加和净值抬升，挂钩SGE黄金9999和上海金现货价格的商品型黄 金ETF年内规模激增，目前总规模已接近2100亿元。 税收新政如何影响投资 财政部、国家税务总局近日发布的《关于黄金有关税收政策的公告》于11月1日起实施。 根据文件规定，在2027年12月31日前，会员单位或客户通过上海黄金交易所、上海期货交易所交易 标准黄金，卖出方会员单位或客户销售标准黄金时，免征增值税。未发生实物交 ...

Core Insights - The new tax policy on gold transactions aims to clarify the VAT rules for "on-market" and "off-market" transactions, as well as for "investment gold" and "non-investment gold," ultimately encouraging on-market gold trading [1][3] - The attractiveness of gold ETFs is expected to increase as investors shift towards these investment tools due to lower tax burdens associated with non-physical investments [1][6] - Global gold demand reached a historical record in Q3, driven significantly by the sustained interest in physical gold ETFs [1][7] Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy, effective from November 1, 2023, exempts VAT for transactions involving standard gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange until December 31, 2027, provided there is no physical delivery [3][5] - For standard gold purchased for investment purposes, the VAT deduction chain is interrupted at the member sales stage, while the deduction rate for non-investment purposes is reduced from 13% to 6% [3][4] - The policy is expected to increase costs for gold jewelry and physical gold bars, while on-market transactions, including gold ETFs, remain unaffected by VAT [3][4] Market Reactions - Major gold jewelry brands and markets have already raised their prices in response to the new tax policy, with costs potentially increasing by over 100 yuan per gram for non-compliant channels [4] - Banks have adjusted their gold accumulation and physical gold exchange services, with some increasing gold bar prices based on the new tax policy [5][6] - The new policy indirectly encourages individual investors to utilize on-market channels for gold investment, which are less impacted by tax burdens [6] Gold ETF Growth - The total scale of domestic gold ETFs has surged to nearly 210 billion yuan, with significant inflows contributing to this growth [2][8] - The leading gold ETF, Huaxia Gold ETF, has seen its scale increase by 528 million yuan, while other ETFs have also experienced substantial growth [8][9] - The global demand for gold ETFs has increased, with a total holding increase of 619 tons in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a strong shift towards these investment vehicles [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical performance of gold, its current valuation, and investment considerations in light of recent market fluctuations. Group 1: Historical Performance of Gold - Over the past 200 years, gold has slightly outperformed inflation, with a long-term annualized return of around 0.6% after adjusting for inflation [3][4] - Since 1971, the annualized return of gold has significantly increased to 8.89% [7][11] - The transition from the gold standard to fiat currency has led to higher inflation rates, which in turn has driven up gold prices [9][10][11] Group 2: Bull and Bear Markets - Gold has experienced three major bull and bear market cycles since the U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971 [12] - The first cycle (1971-2000) saw gold prices rise from $37 to $850 per ounce, followed by a 20-year bear market where prices fell nearly 70% [14][16] - The second cycle (2001-2016) included a rise to $1921 per ounce during the financial crises, followed by a bear market with a maximum drawdown of about 44% [16][17] - The third cycle (2017-present) has seen gold prices rise significantly, reaching a peak of $4251.448 per ounce, with a maximum increase of 262.73% [19][20] Group 3: Volatility and Risk - Gold's volatility can be measured by its volatility rate of around 35% and a maximum drawdown of 44% since 2008, which is lower than the average risk of stock assets [22] - Historical maximum declines in A-shares were approximately 71% in 2008 and nearly 50% in 2015, indicating that gold's risk level is slightly lower than that of stocks but higher than bonds [22] Group 4: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The primary factor affecting gold prices is the real interest rate of the U.S. dollar, which is calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate [24][25] - A significant decrease in the real interest rate typically leads to an increase in gold prices, while an increase in the real interest rate tends to decrease gold prices [25] - Other influencing factors include the cost of gold mining, which is currently around $1624 per ounce, and geopolitical risks such as regional conflicts and financial crises [29][31] Group 5: Valuation of Gold - Gold valuation can be assessed using the ratio of gold price to average mining cost; prices below mining costs indicate a buying opportunity [35] - As of November 3, 2025, gold is rated at approximately 1.1 stars, suggesting it is not currently undervalued [39][40] Group 6: Investment Purposes - There are three main purposes for investing in gold: decorative (jewelry), short-term investment (gold funds), and long-term hedging (physical gold) [44] - The decision to take profits from gold investments should depend on the initial investment purpose, with long-term holders typically not selling during short-term price increases [49][50]

Core Insights - The recent tax policy changes by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation have led to increased compliance costs for gold merchants, prompting them to raise prices to maintain profit margins [1][3] - The gold price in the Shui Bei market experienced a significant surge, reaching approximately 996 yuan per gram, marking the largest single-day increase in five years [1][2] - The new tax policy aims to differentiate tax management based on the investment and non-investment use of gold, which is expected to reduce speculative behavior in the market and promote healthy competition [3] Industry Impact - Merchants in the Shui Bei market are currently hesitant to engage in transactions, opting to observe market conditions due to the new tax regulations [1][2] - Major jewelry brands, including Chow Tai Fook, have begun adjusting their prices in response to the increased costs associated with the new tax policy [3] - A report from the World Gold Council indicates that global gold demand reached a record high in Q3 2023, driven primarily by investment demand, which surged by 47% year-on-year [3] Market Demand - In Q3 2023, China's retail gold investment and consumption demand totaled 152 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7% and a quarter-on-quarter drop of 38% [4] - Despite the decline in volume, the monetary value of China's retail gold investment and consumption demand reached 120.4 billion yuan, representing a 29% year-on-year increase and setting a record for Q3 [4]