Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View - Zinc prices are under pressure [1] - The zinc trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,600 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,848 dollars/ton, up 1.42% [1] - **Volumes**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 78,345 lots, down 1,626; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 8,564 lots, up 58 [1] - **Open Interests**: The open interest of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 85,986 lots, down 1,502; the open interest of LME Zinc was 194,301 lots, up 1,359 [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium/discount was -55 yuan/ton, down 5; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -4.76 dollars/ton, down 1.18 [1] - **Inventories**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 16,192 tons, up 424; LME zinc inventory was 78,475 tons, down 1,075 [1] News - In July in China, the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. From January to July, the cumulative increment of social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On August 13, all the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. IF increased by 0.97%, IH by 0.33%, IC by 1.57%, and IM by 1.63% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 23,189 lots, IH by 9,330 lots, IC by 27,828 lots, and IM by 55,257 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 10,150 lots, IH by 6,610 lots, IC by 11,324 lots, and IM by 32,273 lots [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On August 13, the closing prices of various stock index futures and their underlying indexes showed different increases. For example, the CSI 300 index closed at 4,176.58, up 0.79%; IF2508 closed at 4,181.2, up 0.97% [1] - **Basis**: Different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM had different basis values. For example, the basis of IF2508 was 4.62, and that of IF2509 was -5.78 [1] - **Trading Volume and Turnover**: The trading volume and turnover of each contract also varied. For example, the turnover of IF2509 was 929.2 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 74,450 lots [1] - **Position Changes**: The positions of each contract changed. For example, the position of IF2508 decreased by 5,986 lots, while that of IF2509 increased by 11,069 lots [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] 3. Important Drivers - The central bank announced that at the end of July, China's broad - money (M2) balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; narrow - money (M1) balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6%; currency in circulation (M0) balance was 13.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.8%. In the first seven months, the net cash injection was 465.1 billion yuan. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.62%. The A - share trading volume throughout the day was 2.18 trillion yuan, reaching the second - highest level this year. The market volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index had an eight - day consecutive increase [6] 4. Positions of the Top 20 Members in Futures - The positions of the top 20 members in different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed. For example, in IF2508, the long positions decreased by 4,663 lots, and the short positions decreased by 4,513 lots [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the financial support for the real economy remains strong, with significant growth in social financing and monetary aggregates [1][3][4] - As of the end of July, the total social financing stock reached 431.26 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9%, which is higher than the economic growth rate [1][3] - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 329.94 trillion yuan, with an annual increase of 8.8%, indicating robust liquidity in the market [1][3] Group 2 - The efficiency of fund circulation has improved significantly, with M1 growing by 5.6% year-on-year to 111.06 trillion yuan, and M0 increasing by 11.8% to 13.28 trillion yuan [3] - The net cash injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan, contributing to enhanced market confidence and economic activity [3] - The gap between M2 and M1 growth rates has narrowed, reflecting improved liquidity and circulation efficiency [3] Group 3 - The structure of loans has optimized, with the RMB loan balance growing by 6.9% year-on-year, influenced by seasonal characteristics and macroeconomic factors [4] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.05 trillion yuan, with an annual growth of 11.8%, indicating strong support for smaller enterprises [4] - The impact of local government debt replacement and the reform of small and medium banks has also contributed to the loan dynamics, with local debt replacement affecting loans by approximately 2.6 trillion yuan [4] Group 4 - The interest rates for newly issued corporate loans were around 3.2%, and for personal housing loans, approximately 3.1%, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [5] - This decline in loan rates reflects a relatively abundant credit supply and easier access to bank credit for borrowers [5] - The continued reduction in loan rates since 2018 has resulted in a favorable borrowing environment for both individuals and businesses [5]

Group 1 - The central bank's financial data indicates that as of the end of July, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) grew by 9% and 8.8% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting a moderately loose monetary policy that supports the real economy [1] - The new personal housing loan interest rate is approximately 3.1%, while the new corporate loan interest rate is about 3.2%, both showing a decline of around 45 and 30 basis points compared to the same period last year, indicating a relatively abundant credit supply [2][3] - The total RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan in the first seven months, with household loans rising by 680.7 billion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 11.63 trillion yuan, demonstrating strong support for the real economy [4] Group 2 - The increase in loan interest rates has been sustained at low levels for an extended period, suggesting that credit resources are generally abundant and the financing needs of the real economy are being met [3] - The diversity of corporate financing channels has increased due to financial market innovations and the rapid expansion of government bond issuance, making it more challenging for loans alone to reflect the effectiveness of financial support for the real economy [5] - The new loan issuance metric is significant as it reflects the actual lending and repayment situation, indicating that effective financing demand from the real economy is being adequately satisfied [6]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that financial policies have effectively supported stable growth in credit and optimized its structure, enhancing financial support for the real economy [1] Group 1: Financial Statistics - As of the end of July, the total social financing stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0% [1] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year [1] - The balance of RMB loans was 264.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [1][2] Group 2: Loan Structure - The balance of various RMB loans stood at 268.51 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [2] - Inclusive small and micro loans amounted to 35.05 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [2] - Medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector reached 14.79 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [2] Group 3: Market Confidence - The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 indicates improved liquidity and efficiency in fund circulation, reflecting effective market stabilization policies [1]

Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The Chinese government is seeking public opinion on a draft notice aimed at strengthening supervision of autonomous driving and preventing misleading advertising related to smart connected vehicles [1] - The draft emphasizes that companies must provide accurate and comprehensive information regarding the automation levels and capabilities of their vehicles, prohibiting exaggerated claims [1] - The notice also states that companies must not conduct OTA upgrades without prior filing and must not push untested software versions to users [1] Group 2: Financial Data and Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing increased by 23.99 trillion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - As of the end of July, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 329.94 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.8% year-on-year growth [1] - The net cash injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan, with RMB loans increasing by 12.87 trillion yuan and deposits rising by 18.44 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Corporate Performance - Ningde Times reported a 35.62% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reaching 271.97 billion yuan, with a 42.21% increase in the second quarter [1] - Tencent's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 364.5 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 124.4 billion yuan, up 16% [1] - The company plans to distribute a mid-year dividend of 10.07 yuan per 10 shares [1] Group 4: Market Movements - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.48% to 3683.46, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.76% to 11551.36 [5] - The Hang Seng Index saw a significant rise of 2.58%, closing at 25613.67 [5] - The WTI crude oil price decreased by 1.65% to $62.04, while Brent crude oil fell by 0.56% to $65.74 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The financial growth rate remains high, with significant increases in social financing and money supply, indicating effective monetary policy and support for the real economy [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Growth Metrics - As of the end of July, the social financing scale stock increased by 9% year-on-year, while the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.8% [1]. - The incremental social financing for the first seven months reached 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - The M1 money supply also rose by 1 percentage point to 5.6% compared to the previous month, indicating improved liquidity and market confidence [1]. Group 2: Loan and Credit Structure - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.05 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector amounted to 14.79 trillion yuan, up by 8.5% [1]. - The growth rate of RMB loans as of the end of July was 6.9%, slightly down from 7.1% the previous month, influenced by seasonal factors and external pressures [2][3]. - The new corporate loan interest rate was approximately 3.2%, and the new personal housing loan rate was about 3.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of around 45 and 30 basis points, respectively [3][4]. Group 3: Government Bond Financing - Government bond net financing for the first seven months increased by 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year, serving as a major support factor for the social financing scale increment [2]. - The direct financing market, particularly through government and corporate bonds, has been growing faster than credit financing, aligning better with economic transformation [2].

Group 1: Financial Growth and Monetary Policy - The growth rate of total financial volume remains high, with social financing scale stock increasing by 9% year-on-year as of the end of July [1] - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.8% year-on-year, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy [1] - The structure of credit has improved, with inclusive small and micro loans reaching 35.05 trillion yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year, and medium to long-term loans in manufacturing at 14.79 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Government Bonds and Direct Financing - The cumulative net financing of government bonds in the first seven months increased by 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year, serving as a major support for social financing scale growth [2] - Direct financing, primarily through government and corporate bonds, is growing faster than credit financing, reflecting the development of the direct financing market [2] - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on July 30 emphasized accelerating government bond issuance, which is expected to further boost social financing growth in the third quarter [2] Group 3: Loan Dynamics and Seasonal Trends - July typically sees a seasonal decline in loan issuance, influenced by financial institutions adjusting credit issuance and the need for businesses to settle accounts [3] - The ongoing policy of replacing hidden debts is impacting loan growth, with estimates suggesting that this factor reduces loan growth by over 1 percentage point [3] - Recent efforts to eliminate "involution" competition may lead to a decrease in credit demand from small and medium-sized enterprises [3] Group 4: Interest Rates and Financing Costs - Interest rates remain low, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of about 45 and 30 basis points respectively [3][4] - The low interest rates indicate a relatively abundant supply of credit, making it easier and cheaper for borrowers to obtain bank loans [4] - Initiatives to promote transparency in the comprehensive financing costs for enterprises are underway, which may lead to clearer financing costs in the future [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, supporting the real economy through high levels of social financing and broad money (M2) growth as of the end of July [1] Group 1: Credit Growth - In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, with a loan balance of 268.51 trillion yuan at the end of July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [2] - The fluctuations in credit data during June and July are attributed to financial institutions' half-year reporting and the settlement period for enterprises, as well as the significant impact of local government debt swaps on loan data [2][3] - The impact of debt resolution and risk mitigation factors on current loan growth exceeds 1 percentage point, with local government debt swaps affecting loans by approximately 2.6 trillion yuan since last November [3] Group 2: Loan Interest Rates - Loan interest rates have remained low, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, both down by about 45 and 30 basis points year-on-year, respectively [4] - The decline in financing costs reflects adequate monetary and credit conditions, indicating that the real economy's financing needs are being met [4] Group 3: Monetary Aggregates - As of the end of July, M2 stood at 329.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, while M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [7] - The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 indicates improved liquidity and efficiency in fund circulation, aligning with the recovery of economic activities [7] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The cumulative social financing scale for the first seven months reached 23.99 trillion yuan, exceeding the previous year's figure by 5.12 trillion yuan, with a total stock of 431.26 trillion yuan at the end of July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [7] - The macroeconomic indicators have performed better than expected in the first half of the year, supporting the reasonable growth of monetary credit and meeting the effective financing needs of the real economy [7]

在货币供应量方面，截至7月末，我国广义货币余额329.94万亿元，同比增长8.8%；狭义货币余额 111.06万亿元，同比增长5.6%；流通中货币余额13.28万亿元，同比增长11.8%。前7个月净投放现金 4651亿元。 "社会融资规模、广义货币增速均保持在较高水平，体现了适度宽松的货币政策取向，为实体经济提供 了适宜的货币金融环境。"招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼表示，上半年，人民 贷款利率继续保持低位，实体经济融资需求满足度高。7月利率低位运行，新发放企业贷款利率约 3.2%，新发放个人住房贷款利率约3.1%，分别较去年同期下降约45个和30个基点。 "利率是资金供求关系的价格信号，利率低位下行反映信贷供给相对充裕，资金需求方获得银行信贷支 持更加容易、成本更加优惠。"中国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞鹏表示，贷款利率已经在低位运行了很长 时间，说明信贷资源供给总体是充裕的，实体经济的融资需求满足度比较高，加上禁止违规手工补息、 建立存款招投标利率报备机制、优化非银同业存款利率自律管理等一系列政策的实施，让利率运行机制 更加顺畅，既稳住了银行负债成本，也为银行向企业让利提供了更多空间。目前很多 ...