金十数据8月4日讯，上个月，土耳其通胀放缓幅度超过预期，这给货币政策制定者带来了喜讯，他们在 上个月决定恢复降息。土耳其国家统计局周一公布的数据显示，7月份CPI年率从上月的35.1%降至 33.5%，分析师预测通为34.1%。上月，土耳其央行自3月以来首次降息，称数据显示需求正在推动通胀 放缓。该行将基准利率从46%降至43%，并暗示将进一步降息。 土耳其7月通胀率超预期降温至33.5% ...

Group 1 - The UK economy showed only slight growth in July, with employment numbers decreasing at the fastest rate in five months [1][2] - The S&P Global UK Composite PMI fell from 52.0 in June to 51.0 in July, slightly above the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction [2] - The employment index dropped to 45.1, the lowest since February, attributed to increased employee social security contributions starting in April [2] Group 2 - Concerns over weak demand are affecting hiring decisions, with expectations that the Bank of England will implement its fifth interest rate cut in August despite inflation rising to 3.6% in June [2] - The PMI data indicates a quarterly economic growth rate of only 0.1%, with risks of further weakness [2] - The PMI also highlights the Bank of England's dilemma, as price growth has accelerated for the first time since April due to suppliers trying to offset increased tax and wage costs [2] Group 3 - The GBP/USD is currently in a downtrend, with technical indicators suggesting a potential acceleration of decline if it breaks below 1.3100 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Uruguay predicts that inflation will fall below 4.5% by early 2026 and remain close to this target for the next 24 months [1] Inflation Forecast - The Central Bank expects inflation to not exceed the upper limit of 6% [1] - Confidence in maintaining inflation within the target range is at 64% [1] - The expectation for inflation to potentially fall below the lower limit of the target has increased from 14% to 21% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Latvia's annual inflation rate in June was reported at 3.9%, significantly higher than the EU average of 2.3% and the Eurozone's 2% [1] Group 1: Inflation Rates Comparison - Countries with lower inflation rates include Cyprus (0.5%), France (0.9%), Ireland (1.6%), Denmark (1.8%), and Italy (1.8%) [1] - Higher inflation rates were observed in Romania (5.8%), Estonia (5.2%), Hungary (4.6%), Slovakia (4.6%), and Croatia (4.4%) [1] - Lithuania and Austria both recorded an annual inflation rate of 3.2% [1]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its economic growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, expecting a growth of 3.2% this year, primarily due to better-than-expected output from Saudi Arabia and Egypt [2] - The IMF predicts Saudi Arabia's economic growth will reach 3.6% this year and has adjusted Egypt's GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 3.8% to 4.0% [2] - The improvement in the economic outlook is attributed to more supportive financial conditions in the region, with a decrease in main debt spreads and an increase in international bond issuances [2] Economic Forecasts - The MENA region's economic growth is expected to remain at 3.4% in 2026 [2] - Egypt's economic growth forecast for 2026 has been downgraded by 0.2 percentage points to 4.1%, mainly due to delays in implementing structural reform agendas [2] - The IMF anticipates a decline in inflation rates in the coming months and years, despite currently high regional inflation [2] Sector Performance - Non-oil manufacturing, tourism, and telecommunications sectors in Egypt have shown better-than-expected output, contributing to the upward revision of its economic growth forecast [2]

Core Viewpoint - The employment data released today is significant but will not alter the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates this week, with expectations for one rate cut later this year [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The employment market is showing signs of slowing down from previously strong levels, as indicated by the substantial revisions in today's employment data [1] - The Federal Reserve needs to further assess the trends in hiring before making any decisions [1] Group 2: Inflation Risks - The greater risk this week lies in inflation rates, which currently face dual risks of either continuing to decline or potentially accelerating again [1] Group 3: Tariff Implications - If tariff policies have an impact, the Federal Reserve cannot ignore their effects, and businesses will require time to adjust prices in response to tariff increases [1]

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with the highest price at 998 CNY/gram and the lowest at 969 CNY/gram, maintaining a price difference of 29 CNY/gram [1] - Major brands such as Lao Miao, Liufu, and Zhou Dafu have reported stable prices, while Zhou Shengsheng and Lao Fengxiang have seen slight increases of 4 CNY and 1 CNY respectively [3][4] - The gold recovery price has seen a slight increase of 1.5 CNY/gram, with significant price differences among brands [4] Group 2 - International gold prices showed an upward trend, reaching a peak of 3314.65 USD/ounce before closing at 3289.02 USD/ounce, with a daily increase of 0.42% [6] - The rise in gold prices was influenced by concerns over changes in U.S. tariff policies, particularly the increase of tariffs on Canada to 35% [6] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are low, with only 41.2% anticipating a reduction, which may limit gold price increases [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July will set the tone for the U.S. Treasury market next week, with a weak labor market report increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, despite the personal PCE inflation data being slightly above expectations [1] Group 1 - A weak labor market report will heighten the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [1] - The personal PCE inflation data indicates the challenges of reducing the inflation rate to below or near 2% [1]

Group 1 - The resilient U.S. labor market is now the primary determinant of monetary policy, indicating that strong employment data in July could eliminate expectations for a rate cut in September and reduce the likelihood of further easing this year [1] - Powell emphasized that the next steps for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will depend on overall economic data, acknowledging reasons for easing but highlighting the importance of the unemployment rate [1][2] - The unemployment rate has remained stable between 4.0% and 4.2% for over a year, suggesting the economy is at full employment, making it difficult to justify a rate cut [2] Group 2 - Following the FOMC decision, market reactions included a drop in U.S. stocks, rising bond yields, and a strengthening dollar, reflecting investors' interpretation of Powell's signals [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now seen as a coin toss, indicating a shift in market expectations towards only one rate cut this year [2] - Powell's comments on inflation, with core CPI at 2.9% and core PCE at 2.8%, support a moderate tightening stance [2] Group 3 - Price risks remain due to the delayed effects of tariffs, with Powell suggesting that if tariffs continue to push prices higher, the Fed may need to wait until the impact subsides before easing, potentially delaying any rate cuts until next year [3] - Market expectations for rate cuts have significantly decreased, with projections dropping from over 130 basis points to around 35 basis points for the year [3][4] Group 4 - The futures curve indicates that by May next year, when Powell's term ends, only 65 basis points of rate cuts are priced in [4] - While it is unlikely that there will be no rate cuts during Powell's remaining term, it is not impossible [5]

澳新银行：预计泰国央行今年可能再降息两次 金十数据8月1日讯，澳新银行研究经济学家在一份报告中写道，鉴于价格压力减弱和增长前景疲弱，泰 国央行今年可能会再降息两次。泰国7月份的消费者价格可能会进一步下降。这反映出原材料食品和能 源价格下跌，以及基数效应的拖累。泰国6月份通胀率较上年同期下降0.25%，核心通胀率涨1.06%。澳 新银行预计泰国7月份的总体通胀率将下降0.5%，核心通胀率将上升0.93%。 ...