来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin - 核心个人消费支出（PCE）为何居高不下：美联储首选的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出（PCE）价 格指数在12月依然高企。该指数环比上涨2.9%（剔除食品和能源成本），高于11月的2.8%。这一涨幅 明显高于近期公布的CPI数据（1月份整体CPI环比上涨2.4%，核心CPI环比上涨2.5%）。两者之间的差 异主要反映了PCE数据中商品价格的贡献较高，而"住房"价格的贡献则低得多。 ——亚太地区：亚洲股市涨跌互现，结束了因假期而交易量较少的一周，各区域表现迥异。韩国股市继 续领涨，而日本和香港股市则表现落后。尽管PMI数据改善且通胀有所缓和，日经指数仍下跌略超过 1%。恒生指数在假期后开盘大幅下跌，主要受大型互联网平台疲软以及资金转向小型人工智能概念股 的影响。宏观方面，日本核心CPI维持在2.0%不变，整体通胀有所回落。日本、印度和澳大利亚的采购 经理人指数（PMI）更新数据普遍显示经济持续扩张，东南亚的贸易数据也凸显了强劲的电子产品需 求。 等等…… 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条 ...

新华财经布鲁塞尔2月20日电（记者黄晓兰）标普全球（S&P Global）20日公布的数据显示，欧元区2月 综合采购经理人指数（PMI）初值为51.9，连续14个月高于50荣枯线，创3个月新高。 2月份，制造业复苏驱动欧元区经济增长加速，但就业停滞、成本压力上升和订单疲软等隐忧依然存 在。 汉堡商业银行首席经济学家赛勒斯·德拉鲁比亚（Cyrus de la Rubia)指出，欧元区制造业可能迎来"转折 点"，基础比去年8月的短暂反弹更稳固，今年有望从经济的"拖累者"向"贡献者"转变。 欧元区各主要经济体表现存在差异。德国经济强势复苏，成为拉动欧元区增长的主力，而法国陷入停 滞，其他国家增长动能则大幅减弱。 （文章来源：新华财经） 分行业数据显示，服务业PMI初值为51.8，制造业PMI初值为50.8，6个月来首次重回扩张区间。 ...

Group 1 - The Saudi Arabia Riyadh Bank Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased from 57.4 in December to 56.3 in January 2025, marking the lowest level in six months, yet remains in the expansion zone [1] - The PMI reading above 50.0 indicates economic activity growth, while below 50.0 indicates contraction [2] - The new orders sub-index increased from 61.8 in December to 61.9, driven by strong domestic market conditions and export sales growth, particularly to Gulf Cooperation Council and Asian countries [2] Group 2 - Cost pressures have intensified for the second consecutive month, attributed to rising prices of key inputs such as metals and fuels, as well as increasing wages [2] - Despite challenges, Saudi businesses remain optimistic about future output, supported by an increase in orders and a stable economic outlook [2]

Core Insights - The private sector in Kenya continued to expand in January 2025, but the growth rate has slowed down [1] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January was reported at 51.9, marking the fifth consecutive month above the neutral level of 50.0, but it is the weakest month for business conditions improvement since September 2025 [1] - Business activity and new orders continued to grow, but at a decelerated pace, indicating a reduction in sales momentum following strong growth at the end of 2025 [1] - The growth of new business also slowed to its lowest level, reflecting a cautious attitude among many enterprises at the beginning of the year [1]

Group 1 - The UK construction sector's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 40.1 in December to 46.4 in January, significantly exceeding market expectations of 42.0 and marking the highest level since June 2025 [1] - Despite remaining below the neutral level of 50.0, the sharp slowdown in contraction indicates that downward pressure on the UK construction industry is easing, suggesting a potential recovery in overall industry sentiment [1] - All sectors of the construction industry have rebounded from December 2025 lows, driven by a recovery in the public sector and increased commercial sales inquiries, leading to the slowest decline in new business volume in three months [1] Group 2 - The housing construction project, a priority for the Labour government with a commitment to build 1.5 million homes, is currently facing challenges due to weak demand, low customer confidence, and insufficient new project starts, making it the weakest segment in the construction industry [2] - Despite ongoing cost pressures eroding profits, with procurement costs experiencing the largest increase since September due to rising wages and material prices, there are signs of improvement in investment sentiment and a decrease in interest rates, boosting optimism for the coming year [2] - The S&P confidence index has reached its highest level since May 2025, with nearly 40% of surveyed firms expecting output to improve over the next 12 months, while only 17% anticipate a decline in activity [2]

Core Insights - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) serves as an economic indicator, with a threshold of 50 indicating the state of economic activity [1] Group 1 - PMI above 50 typically indicates economic expansion [1] - PMI equal to 50 signifies that economic activity is stable [1] - PMI below 50 generally suggests economic contraction [1]

Core Insights - The UAE's non-oil private sector continues to expand as of December 2025, driven by an increase in new orders and improved market conditions [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The seasonally adjusted S&P Global UAE Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December stands at 54.2, slightly down from November's nine-month high but still close to the long-term average, indicating a "robust improvement" in the sector [1] - Over a quarter of businesses reported a month-on-month increase in output, reflecting positive trends in customer spending, tourism activity, and technological adoption [1] Group 2: Cost Pressures - There is a notable rise in cost pressures, with input prices experiencing the fastest increase in 15 months, driven by higher wages, transportation, and maintenance costs [1] - Companies have raised selling prices for the sixth consecutive month in response to these cost pressures [1] Group 3: Business Confidence - Despite generally positive business expectations, overall business confidence is at a near three-year low, with market competition and uncertainty posing significant constraints [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent economic data from the U.S. shows a stable economy, with no signs of overheating or rapid cooling, impacting gold and silver prices [1] - The February 2026 gold futures price decreased by 0.07%, closing at $4,332.20 per ounce, while silver futures for March delivery rose by 0.32%, closing at $63.80 per ounce [1][2] - The U.S. labor market showed volatility, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000 in November after a decrease of 105,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, above the expected 4.5% [1] - Retail sales in the U.S. remained relatively unchanged in October, with declines in auto dealer sales and gasoline revenues offsetting strong growth in other spending categories [1] - The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) composite output index fell to 53 in November from 54.2, with the manufacturing PMI slightly declining to 51.8, below the expected 52 [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the surge in gold and silver prices since the 2015-2016 lows may be nearing its end, with potential adjustments expected to begin as early as next year [2] - The next bullish target for February gold futures is to break through the strong resistance level of $4,433, while the next bearish target for short-term declines is to fall below the strong technical support level of $4,200 [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that U.S. business activity growth has slowed down in December, reaching its lowest level since June of this year, with declines in new orders for both manufacturing and services sectors, suggesting a weakening economic momentum [4]. Group 2 - The preliminary composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global fell from 54.2 in November to 53.0 in December, marking a six-month low but still above the expansion threshold of 50 [4]. - New business growth has reached its lowest level in nearly 20 months, with new orders for goods experiencing a decline for the first time in a year [4]. Group 3 - The services sector PMI, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic output, dropped to 52.9, also a six-month low, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 51.8, the lowest since July, both below economists' expectations [4]. - Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global, stated that the December PMI preliminary data indicates a weakening economic growth momentum, particularly with a noticeable slowdown in new orders ahead of the holiday season, suggesting that economic activity may further soften entering 2026 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD exchange rate is currently fluctuating around 1.1750, with market sentiment being cautious as investors await key economic data, particularly the preliminary PMI figures from Germany and the Eurozone [1]. Technical Analysis - The short-term structure of Euro/USD remains positive, with the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 50-period and 200-period SMAs, indicating strong price momentum [3]. - The 20-period SMA is positioned around 1.1737, providing dynamic support in conjunction with the midline of the ascending trend channel [4]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at approximately 62.5, indicating bullish momentum but not yet in overbought territory, suggesting that upward pressure remains, albeit slightly diminished compared to previous highs [5]. Key Support and Resistance Levels - The upper boundary of the ascending channel and the static resistance at 1.1790 form the first significant resistance level; a breakout could target 1.1840 [5]. - Key support is found between 1.1690 and 1.1680, where the ascending channel's lower boundary and the 50-period SMA converge [5]. - The overall upward trend line from 1.1500 continues to provide support, with further support at approximately 1.1670 [5]. Fundamental Analysis - The US dollar has shown limited upward momentum at the beginning of the week, but a decline in market risk appetite has provided some resilience against major currencies [5]. - Market focus is on the upcoming non-farm payroll data from the US, with expectations of an increase of about 40,000 jobs in November and an unemployment rate holding at 4.4% [7]. - A significantly stronger-than-expected jobs report could diminish market bets on an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve, potentially strengthening the dollar and applying downward pressure on Euro/USD [7]. Conversely, weaker data may bolster expectations for a rate cut, providing upward momentum for Euro/USD [7].