分析：要让美联储降息，失业率得上升才行 金十数据8月1日讯，据外媒分析报道，鲍威尔本周多次对记者表示，他认为目前衡量经济健康状况的最 佳指标是失业率。他指出，6月份的失业率为4.1%，在过去一年里几乎没有变化，而通胀率则离美联储 的目标更远了一些。因此，他表示，大多数决策者认为这一情况说明没有理由调整利率。与此同时，鲍 威尔拒绝预先承诺9月降息，而周四的通胀数据又高于预期，给何时恢复降息的前景蒙上了阴影。美国 劳工统计局周五将公布7月份的失业率数据，美联储不太可能在劳动力市场没有恶化的情况下降息，要 让美联储降息，失业率得上升才行。 ...

新华财经东京7月31日电（记者刘春燕）日本央行7月31日在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后宣布，继续 将政策利率维持在0.5%左右不变。这也是该央行自今年1月将政策利率从0.25%上调至0.5%水平后连续 四次按兵不动。 今年1月，日本央行将政策利率由0.25%提高至0.5%左右。3月，日本央行以美国关税政策可能导致全球 经济不确定性升高为由，决定维持利率不变，5月和6月的货币政策会议继续维持这一利率水平。 日本央行同日还发布经济与物价形势展望报告，将2025年日本去除生鲜食品后的核心消费价格指数同比 涨幅预测值从此前的2.2%上调至2.7%。 日本央行行长植田和男在当天下午的记者会上表示，日本国内排除各种暂时性因素后的通胀率在走强， 重返通缩的可能性有所下降。未来日本央行将密切关注影响工资和物价上涨循环机制的各种因素，适时 调整货币政策，包括择机加息。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

南非央行行长：南非货币政策委员会更希望通胀率稳定在3%。 ...

日本央行同日还发布经济与物价形势展望报告，将2025年日本去除生鲜食品后的核心消费价格指数同比 涨幅预测值从此前的2.2%上调至2.7%。 日本央行行长植田和男在当天下午的记者会上表示，日本国内排除各种暂时性因素后的通胀率在走强， 重返通缩的可能性有所下降。未来日本央行将密切关注影响工资和物价上涨循环机制的各种因素，适时 调整货币政策，包括择机加息。（完） 今年1月，日本央行将政策利率由0.25%提高至0.5%左右。3月，日本央行以美国关税政策可能导致全球 经济不确定性升高为由，决定维持利率不变，5月和6月的货币政策会议继续维持这一利率水平。 新华社东京7月31日电（记者刘春燕）日本央行7月31日在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后宣布，继续将 政策利率维持在0.5%左右不变。这也是该央行自今年1月将政策利率从0.25%上调至0.5%水平后连续四 次按兵不动。 ...

Core Insights - The survey conducted by Bank of America reveals that Generation Z adults are becoming increasingly frugal in their dating habits due to rising living costs influenced by tariffs under the Trump administration [1][2] - Over 50% of respondents reported spending no money on dates, while among those who do spend, 25% of males and 30% of females spend less than $100 per month [1] - More than half of the respondents are saving more money, and 24% are paying off debts to improve their financial situations [1] Financial Attitudes - 55% of respondents feel that their earnings are insufficient to live the lifestyle they desire, and a similar percentage lacks enough emergency savings to cover three months of expenses [2] - The proportion of Generation Z respondents receiving financial support from parents and family has decreased from 46% to 39% over the past year, with the amount received also declining [2] Economic Independence - Despite facing economic challenges and high daily expenses, Generation Z is striving for financial independence [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, aligning with expectations, while Powell emphasized that inflation is close to 2% but it is too early to determine if a rate cut will occur in September [1] - The current policy is slightly restrictive but has not suppressed the economy, leading to a strengthening of the US dollar and a decline in gold and silver prices, with gold hitting a low of 3268 and silver at 36.7 [1] - Market sentiment has been influenced by data, with gold and silver showing a weak trend, and key resistance levels for gold at 3300 and 3330, while silver faces resistance at 37.5 [1][2] Group 2 - The dollar has reached a critical level above 100, while gold has been affected by market data, showing an overall weak trend [2] - Gold has dropped from 3438 to 3268, a decline of 170 points, and the market is currently at a critical juncture for potential bullish reversal [2][3] - The upcoming unemployment claims and non-farm payroll data are crucial for market direction, with a focus on whether gold can maintain above 3300 and 3330 for potential upward movement [3] Group 3 - International silver has shown significant volatility, breaking below 37.5, and its future direction remains uncertain, dependent on upcoming data [4] - Domestic silver has also seen a decline, with the Shanghai silver contract falling below 9100, indicating potential for further downward movement unless it stabilizes above 9150 [4] - Crude oil has successfully risen to 770, with previous long positions yielding profits, and the overall bullish trend remains intact, with potential targets above 72 [4][5] Group 4 - Domestic fuel oil has seen a rise to around 3000, with previous long positions being adjusted or exited for profit, while the overall trend remains bullish [5] - The focus remains on monitoring support levels and potential upward targets for both domestic and international commodities [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, citing slightly elevated inflation and a robust job market, while noting a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [1][2]. Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision reflects a shift in language regarding economic activity, changing from "continuing to expand at a steady pace" to "showing signs of slowing" [1]. - The committee aims to achieve maximum employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2%, while acknowledging high uncertainty in the current economic outlook [2]. - The committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities [2]. Group 2 - Support for the monetary policy decision came from several key figures, including Jerome Powell, John Williams, and others, while dissenting opinions were expressed by Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who favored a 25 basis point rate cut [3].

美联储主席鲍威尔：通胀率略高于目标。 ...

智通财经7月31日电，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，通胀率略高于目标。尽管存在不确定性，但经济依然稳 固。 ...

预计三季通胀率为1.8%，核心通胀率为3.1%。 加拿大央行：预计在当前的关税下，二季度GDP萎缩1.5%，三季度GDP增长1%。 人口增长乏力及投资疲软将制约加拿大下半年经济表现。 2025年下半年及2026年消费增长或持续温和。 在新贸易环境下，预计加拿大下半年出口有望"企稳"。 ...