Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating Bullish [5] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [6] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating [7] - Pigs: Oscillating Bearish [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [12] - Cotton: Oscillating Bearish [13] - Sugar: Oscillating Bearish [15] - Pulp: Oscillating Bearish [16] - Logs: Oscillating Bearish [19] Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and rubber is oscillating bullishly. The marginal increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil production has weakened, and the positive impact of EPA has not subsided. Multiple factors have boosted the prices of double meals. The spot price increase of corn/starch has slowed down, and the futures are oscillating. The supply and demand of pigs are loose, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level. The synthetic rubber futures are moving horizontally. The pulp market has changed little and remains oscillating bearishly. The cotton price is slightly oscillating with weak rebound momentum. The sugar price has stopped falling and rebounded. The fluctuation of logs has intensified, and the price has risen and then fallen [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **View**: The marginal increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil production has weakened, and the positive impact of EPA has not subsided [5]. - **Logic**: The EPA's biofuel blending obligation proposal is beneficial to the demand expectation of US soybean oil. The US soybean planting progress is good, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. The production increase expectation of Malaysian palm oil in June is limited, and the export expectation is optimistic. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly decreasing but still at a high level [5]. - **Outlook**: Driven by positive factors such as the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, rising crude oil prices, and the EPA's biofuel proposal, oils and fats may operate bullishly in the near future, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase and the technical resistance at key levels [5]. 2. Protein Meal - **View**: Multiple factors have boosted the prices of double meals [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the rise in crude oil and the EPA proposal are beneficial to US soybeans. The sowing and emergence of US soybeans are going well, but the excellent - good rate is lower than expected. The freight has increased, and the discount of South American soybeans has risen. Domestically, the strengthening of overseas soybean prices has boosted the domestic soybean meal futures. The basis in East China has rebounded. Although the soybean arrival volume will increase in the next two months, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is not under pressure for the time being, and the market demand is stabilizing [6]. - **Outlook**: The US soybeans are expected to maintain an oscillating range. The prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly. Oil mills can actively sell hedging at high prices, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low prices. Unilateral positions can be bought at low prices, and a 9 - 1 positive spread strategy can be adopted [6]. 3. Corn/Starch - **View**: The spot price increase of corn has slowed down, and the futures are oscillating [7]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is generally stable, and the rise has slowed down. The supply of corn is affected by factors such as the low arrival volume at Shandong deep - processing enterprises, the outflow of corn in the Northeast, and the new wheat listing. The demand for corn in the feed and deep - processing industries has changed. In the medium term, the import of grains is tightening, and the inventory reduction expectation for the 24/25 season is established [7]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected production - demand gap, the trend is still upward, but attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of the import auction policy [7]. 4. Pigs - **View**: The supply and demand are loose, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level [8]. - **Logic**: After the previous weight reduction and price decline, the reluctance of farmers to sell has fluctuated. The demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, the slaughter weight of pigs is decreasing, and the supply of large pigs is still large. In the long term, the pig production capacity is still at a high level, and the number of newborn piglets has been increasing [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bearishly. The near - term contracts are under pressure due to the release of large - pig inventory, and the far - term contracts are affected by the expectations of inventory clearance and capacity adjustment [8]. 5. Natural Rubber - **View**: The market sentiment is warm, and the futures are oscillating bullishly [10]. - **Logic**: The resurgence of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has boosted the commodity market sentiment. Although natural rubber has no direct relationship with crude oil, it is driven by the strong market sentiment. The supply side is affected by the rainy season, and the raw material price has rebounded slightly. The demand side has seen a partial recovery in the start - up of tire enterprises, but the demand expectation is still weak [10]. - **Outlook**: The impact of external events on the futures will continue to dominate, but the duration is unknown. The Ru futures may maintain an oscillating bullish trend in the short term due to the low off - standard basis [10]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures are moving horizontally [12]. - **Logic**: The geopolitical disturbance in the Middle East has made the international crude oil price temporarily strong, which has driven the BR futures to be bullish. The fundamentals of BR are relatively neutral. The operating rate of private enterprises has declined, but the inventory has increased slightly. The price of butadiene has declined, and the market supply is relatively abundant [12]. - **Outlook**: The geopolitical conflict may last for at least one week, and the emotional disturbance to the futures may continue. Although the downward trend in fundamentals remains unchanged, short - term participation should be cautious, and the futures may operate oscillating bullishly [12]. 7. Cotton - **View**: The cotton price is slightly oscillating, and the rebound momentum is weak [13]. - **Logic**: The 25/26 season's cotton production in China and other major producing countries is expected to increase. The demand side has entered the off - season, and the inventory of textile products has increased. The commercial inventory of cotton has been depleted faster than in previous years, which may support the old - crop contracts, but the upward driving force is not strong [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,000 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and oscillating bearishly in the long term [13]. 8. Sugar - **View**: The sugar price has stopped falling and rebounded [15]. - **Logic**: After the continuous decline of the external market driving the domestic market to new lows, the external market has rebounded, and the short - term decline of the domestic market has slowed down. The fundamentals of the sugar market have changed little. The new - season global sugar supply is expected to be loose, but the short - term downward space of sugar prices is limited. The appreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar and the strong crude oil price are beneficial to sugar prices. The domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated arrival of imported sugar [15]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the long term due to the expected supply surplus in the new season; the sugar price may rebound for valuation repair in the short term [15]. 9. Pulp - **View**: The market has changed little and remains oscillating bearishly [16]. - **Logic**: The pulp futures have slightly declined, and the supply and demand are still weak. In the short term, the pulp import volume remains high, and the demand is in the off - season. In the medium term, the import pressure is still large, and the demand peak season will not start until August [16]. - **Outlook**: The supply is resilient, and the demand remains weak. The pulp futures are expected to operate oscillating bearishly [16]. 10. Logs - **View**: The fluctuation has intensified, and the price has risen and then fallen [19]. - **Logic**: The log futures have risen and then fallen, and the delivery game is intensifying. The spot price center of mainstream ports has risen due to the clearance of old goods. The supply pressure will ease at the end of June or early July, and the demand is in the off - season. The profit of downstream processing plants is recovering, and the market sentiment may lead to price support [19]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is expected to last until the end of June to early July, and the demand has no obvious improvement expectation. The short - term fundamentals maintain a weak balance. The futures may fluctuate sharply in the short term due to the high virtual - to - real ratio of the delivery game [19].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,374 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton, +0.92% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,437 yuan/ton (+11 yuan/ton, +0.25%). Due to the Israel-Iran conflict, two EG plants in Iran with a total capacity of 950,000 tons unexpectedly shut down, leading to an increase in EG prices on Monday. The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$38/ton (up $9/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 106 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton). The inventory data from different sources showed a decline, and the port inventory was expected to be stable. The supply in June in China was gradually recovering, and the overall load was not high. Overseas supply was affected by the situation in Iran. The demand decreased due to polyester production cuts [1][2]. - **Strategy**: The short - term strategy for a single position is bullish, and attention should be paid to the further evolution of the Middle East geopolitical conflict. There are no strategies for inter - period or cross - variety trading [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,374 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton, +0.92% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,437 yuan/ton (+11 yuan/ton, +0.25%). The East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 86 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$38/ton (up $9/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 106 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton). The report also mentioned relevant profit data for other production methods and the overall and syngas - based operating rates of EG [1][10]. International Spread - The report presented the international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - It covered the sales and production of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester chips [21][23]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 616,000 tons (down 18,000 tons), and according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 564,000 tons (down 34,000 tons). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 108,000 tons, and the planned arrivals this week were 100,000 tons. The port inventory was expected to be stable [2].

Group 1 - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, particularly Israel's attacks on Iran, has led to a significant increase in oil prices and a rise in the global energy sector, along with a boost in gold prices [1] - In the U.S., May inflation was lower than expected, resulting in the dollar hitting a three-year low, while U.S. Treasury yields continued to fluctuate [1] - Domestic social financing in May showed a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, primarily supported by government bonds, although credit remains weak, particularly in medium to long-term corporate loans, potentially impacted by U.S. tariff escalations [1] Group 2 - The bond market experienced fluctuations but leaned towards strength, with the central bank's active liquidity provision alleviating concerns over tight funding due to upcoming maturities [1] - The market's focus has shifted towards fundamentals as U.S.-China tariff negotiations reached a temporary resolution, with short-term geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting market risk appetite but expected to have a diminishing mid-term impact [1] - The continued weakness of the dollar is likely to attract funds into emerging markets, benefiting equity markets [1] Group 3 - In the Hong Kong stock market, multiple domestic and international factors have collectively strengthened risk appetite, with a potential continuation of this trend in the short term [2] - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has temporarily boosted oil sentiment, although global oil demand may still be affected by tariffs in the medium term [2] - Economic policy uncertainties stemming from tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility are expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend for gold prices, despite short-term price volatility [2]

供应端有所缩减，盘面下跌节奏放缓 煤焦周度报告 20250616 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 上周盘面略有反弹，短期下跌节奏放缓；现货暂稳，仍有第四轮降价预期 | | | 供给 | 焦企开工下滑，供应端略有收紧 | | | 需求 | 铁水延续小幅下滑，钢厂控制原料到货；投机情绪偏弱，出口利润维持正值，建材现货日成交量下滑 | | | 库存 | 全环节降库，总库存下降 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利压缩，焦炭盘面利润小幅回升 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09小幅升水，9-1价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 上周中美和谈带来市场情绪短暂改善，周初双焦小幅反弹，但和谈未有超预期协议达成，加之美方对钢制家电加征关税，而钢材需求也进一步走弱，盘 面反弹乏力再度走弱，整体震荡走势。截至周五收盘，焦炭09合约跌0.44%至1349.5，焦煤09合约跌0.58%至774.5。焦炭方面，受环保、检 ...