Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade negotiations between Japan and the United States are progressing, with Japan's chief trade negotiator expressing a commitment to continue discussions despite challenges, particularly regarding the automotive industry and agricultural sector [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Japan's chief trade negotiator, Akizawa Ryo, had a 40-minute phone conversation with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, indicating a willingness to engage in constructive dialogue [1] - Japan is not willing to make easy compromises but feels that trust is being built with the U.S. and progress is being made in negotiations [1] - There is a strong emphasis on reaching an agreement on a wide range of issues, with a particular focus on the automotive sector as a critical point for overall agreement [1] Group 2: Tariff Discussions - Akizawa expressed regret over the new tariff rates and emphasized that there will be no overlap between industry tariffs and overall tariffs [1] - Japan has made it clear that it will not compromise on issues related to national interests, particularly in the agricultural sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai Finance Minister expressed surprise regarding the tariff rates imposed by the United States [1] Group 1 - The Thai government is concerned about the impact of U.S. tariffs on its economy [1] - The Finance Minister indicated that the tariffs could affect trade relations between Thailand and the U.S. [1] - There is a call for dialogue to address the tariff issues and mitigate potential economic repercussions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump has issued new tariff threats to 14 countries, with rates varying from 25% to 40%, effective August 1 [1] Summary by Categories Tariff Rates - Japan, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and Tunisia face a tariff rate of 25% [1] - South Africa and Bosnia have a tariff rate of 30% [1] - Indonesia has a tariff rate of 32% [1] - Bangladesh and Serbia are subject to a tariff rate of 35% [1] - Thailand and Cambodia face a tariff rate of 36% [1] - Laos and Myanmar are facing the highest tariff rate of 40% [1] Implementation Date - The new tariffs will take effect on August 1 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The revised tariff proposal by the Thai Finance Minister includes differentiated tariff rates for specific products [1] Group 1 - The proposal aims to implement varying tariff rates based on product categories [1]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Tin: Upward Movement Driven by Macroeconomic Environment" and was released on July 2, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analysts' Information - The analysts are Wang Rong (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0002529, Email: wangrong013179@gtjas.com) and Liu Yuxuan (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020476, Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com) [2] Group 3: Tin Fundamental Data Futures and Electronic Disk - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 269,840, with a daily increase of 0.65%, and the night - session closing price was 269,840, with a night - session increase of 0.63%. The trading volume was 70,070, a decrease of 14,968 from the previous day, and the open interest was 31,494, an increase of 10 from the previous day. The inventory was 6,766, an increase of 16 from the previous day [2] - The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 33,750, with a daily increase of 0.55%. The trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 from the previous day. The inventory was 2,220, an increase of 45 from the previous day, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2] Spot and Price Differences - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 266,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 266,900, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous day. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was 128, an increase of 7 from the previous day [2] - The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 73,930, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was - 1,210, a decrease of 240 from the previous day [2] Industry Chain Key Price Data - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 254,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 258,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 180,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous day; the price of 60A solder bar was 173,250, a decrease of 500 from the previous day [2] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - The EU is willing to accept a 10% tariff rate on multiple commodities from the US but hopes to exclude key industries [3] - Canada has conceded and cancelled the digital services tax. The US and Canada will resume trade negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21 [3] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said there is no intention to increase the proportion of long - term US Treasury bond issuance; stablecoin legislation may be introduced in mid - July [3] - Trump has expanded his targets of attack, criticizing the Federal Reserve Board including Powell; the White House said Trump wrote to the Federal Reserve on Monday, mentioning global interest rates [3] - China's official manufacturing PMI in June rose for two consecutive months to 49.7, the new order index returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing sector continued to expand [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [3][4]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index is currently up 0.18%, the Dow Jones is up 154 points with a gain of 0.35%, and the Nasdaq is up 0.17% [1] - White House Press Secretary Leavitt announced that President Trump will meet with his team this week regarding tariff rates [1] - Trump plans to impose tariffs on countries that do not participate in negotiations [1]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra stated that, with few exceptions, countries have proposed very good suggestions regarding tariff rates [1] Group 1 - The majority of countries have made positive proposals concerning tariff rates, indicating a collaborative approach to trade discussions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has decreased by 4 basis points to a one-week low of 4.39%, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets amid trade policy uncertainties [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 4.39%, marking a one-week low [1] - The decline of 4 basis points suggests a cautious market response to economic conditions [1] Group 2: Trade Policy - Former President Trump announced plans to set tariff rates for U.S. trade partners within the next two to three weeks [1] - Trump indicated that his administration is unable to negotiate agreements with all trade partners simultaneously [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports a decrease in the likelihood of a U.S. economic recession over the next 12 months from 45% to 35% due to easing trade tensions [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The recent trade agreements are expected to result in a lower-than-anticipated increase in actual tariff rates [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1.0% [1] - The expectation for the Federal Reserve to begin interest rate cuts has been postponed from July to December [1] Group 2: Trade Agreements - The Trump administration may announce additional preliminary trade agreements in the coming weeks, which could further reduce actual tariff rates [1]

美国能源信息署（EIA）：关于关税税率及其对经济和石油需求增长影响的不确定性增加，导致短期油 价波动加剧。 ...