原油市场供需平衡
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建信期货原油日报-20250704
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 03:22
Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report - Report Date: July 4, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - Due to the possible resumption of Israeli attacks on Iran, oil prices rose again. EIA data showed that as of the week ending on the 27th, US crude oil and gasoline inventories both increased more than expected, while diesel inventories continued to decline. In the supply side, most of the 8 OPEC member countries achieved the planned production increase in the first month of the expanded production increase. Considering Trump's concerns about high oil prices, there is a possibility that OPEC+ will further increase production. In the demand side, the expectation of crude oil demand has improved due to the suspension of the Sino-US tariff conflict, but the adjustment of the balance sheet is limited because of the expected supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana. The market will maintain a pattern of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year. Oil prices are gradually returning to fundamental-driven, and are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.18% to close at $67.45 per barrel, with a trading volume of 24.54 million lots; Brent crude oil futures rose 3.04% to close at $69.15 per barrel, with a trading volume of 38.45 million lots; SC crude oil futures rose 1.56% to close at 506.3 yuan per barrel, with a trading volume of 17.94 million lots [6]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: OPEC member countries basically completed the planned production increase in the first month of the expanded production increase. Trump's concerns about high oil prices may lead to a further increase in OPEC+ production. The expectation of crude oil demand has improved due to the suspension of the Sino-US tariff conflict, but the market will still maintain a pattern of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year because of the expected supply growth in other countries [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Indonesia plans to increase its daily crude oil production to 1 million barrels. - Last week, US imports of crude oil from Nigeria reached the highest level since August 2019. - In June, the production of 12 OPEC member countries increased by 360,000 barrels per day to an average of 28 million barrels per day, with about two-thirds of the increase contributed by Saudi Arabia [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on global high-frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, and spot prices, with data sources including CFTC, Wind, and Bloomberg [10][11][18]
建信期货原油日报-20250703
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 01:28
Group 1: General Information - Report date: July 3, 2025 [2] - Report type: Crude Oil Daily [1] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market performance**: WTI's opening price was $64.96, closing at $65.53, with a high of $65.98, a low of $64.67, a daily increase of 0.65%, and trading volume of 17.29 million lots; Brent's opening price was $66.58, closing at $67.28, with a high of $67.50, a low of $66.34, a daily increase of 0.81%, and trading volume of 27 million lots; SC's opening price was 503.1 yuan/barrel, closing at 498.2 yuan/barrel, with a high of 503.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 495.6 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 0.24%, and trading volume of 13.75 million lots [6] - **Supply - demand analysis**: In the supply side, in the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically achieved the planned increase. There's a possibility of OPEC+ further increasing production. In the demand side, due to the suspension of China - US tariff disputes, crude oil demand expectations improved, but considering the supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana, the market will maintain a pattern of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year [7] - **Operational suggestion**: Oil prices are gradually returning to fundamental - driven, and in the short - term, they are expected to fluctuate. It's advisable to wait and see [7] Group 3: Industry News - Goldman Sachs believes that if OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday, the market may not have a significant reaction as market expectations have shifted towards this outcome [8] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June increased by 450,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 6.33 million barrels per day, reaching the highest level in over a year [8] - Kazakhstan's crude oil production in June increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 1.88 million barrels per day, hitting a historical high. Its first - half production increased by 13% year - on - year to 1.79 million barrels per day [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, and various oil price charts [10][11][18]
大越期货原油早报-20250702
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 01:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market is concerned about OPEC+ potentially announcing a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in August at the July 6 meeting, but the improvement in demand prospects from trade agreements partially offsets this impact. Saudi Arabia is exporting crude at the fastest pace in over a year, and the potential for continued production increases is pressuring oil prices upward. Geopolitical concerns from the Houthi attacks on Israel provide some premium. Currently, the crude oil market lacks directional events, and it is expected to remain range - bound in the short - term, with prices moving between 495 - 503. Long - term investment should be on hold [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2508, the fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish; inventory data is bearish; the 20 - day moving average is flat with the price below it, which is neutral; as of June 24, the WTI and Brent crude oil main positions are long, with WTI long positions increasing and Brent long positions decreasing, which is neutral. Short - term prices are expected to range between 495 - 503, and long - term investment should be on hold [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump said the US may reach a trade agreement with India and is skeptical about a deal with Japan. US Treasury Secretary believes China will speed up the export of rare earth minerals and magnets. - Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed will "wait and learn more" about the impact of tariffs on inflation before cutting interest rates, ignoring Trump's call for an immediate and significant rate cut. He did not rule out a rate cut at the July 29 - 30 meeting. Trump said he has two or three candidates to replace Powell. - Trump said Israel has agreed to the conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire in Gaza, and the plan will be submitted to Hamas. Qatar and Egypt will be responsible for presenting the final proposal [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - Bullish factors: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - Bearish factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months; the US has ongoing tense trade relations with other economies; Iran and Israel have reached a cease - fire. - Market drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, the market awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude have changed. Brent crude increased by 0.37 to 67.11 (0.55% increase), WTI crude increased by 0.34 to 65.45 (0.52% increase), SC crude increased by 0.90 to 497.0 (0.18% increase), and Oman crude decreased by 0.39 to 68.22 (- 0.57% decrease) [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude have changed. UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.33 to 68.78 (0.48% increase), WTI increased by 0.34 to 65.45 (0.52% increase), Oman crude decreased by 0.86 to 68.45 (- 1.24% decrease), Shengli crude decreased by 1.22 to 65.38 (- 1.83% decrease), and Dubai crude decreased by 0.55 to 68.32 (- 0.80% decrease) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude inventory as of June 28 increased by 680,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.257 million barrels. US EIA inventory as of June 20 decreased by 5.836 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 797,000 barrels. Cushing area inventory as of June 20 decreased by 464,000 barrels. As of July 1, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.911 million barrels, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of June 24, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 232,969, an increase of 1,921. The net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 192,598, a decrease of 80,577 [15][17].
大越期货原油早报-20250625
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 09:45
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has led to a significant reduction in geopolitical concerns, causing oil prices to largely give back all war premiums and return to the fundamentals. The substantial drawdown in US API crude oil inventories indicates an optimistic performance during the summer consumption peak season. The market will focus on the supply side, as Kazakhstan has stated that it has no plan to cut production, which will test the implementation of OPEC+. In the short term, oil prices will fluctuate at a low level, with a short - term trading range of 505 - 520, and a long - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2508, the fundamentals are neutral as the US air strike only delayed Iran's nuclear capacity by a few months, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has taken effect, Kazakhstan has no plan to cut production, and the Fed may consider interest rate cuts due to potential inflation from tariff hikes. The basis is neutral with spot at par with futures. Inventory data is bullish, with significant draws in US API and EIA inventories. The market trend is bullish as the price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions are bullish as both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions show an increase in long positions. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with a trading range of 505 - 520, and a long - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. 2. Recent News - On Tuesday, June 24, after a phone call between Trump and Netanyahu, Israel stopped further military strikes on Iran, and Iran is ready to talk. The US air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities only set back the nuclear program by a few months. Fed Chairman Powell said that tariff hikes this summer may push up inflation, which is a key period for the Fed to consider interest rate cuts, but he is not in a hurry to cut rates. The EU is preparing more tariff counter - measures against the US before the July 9 trade negotiation deadline, and Germany will support tougher measures against the US [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Bearish factors include OPEC+ increasing production for three consecutive months, the continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies, and the ceasefire between Iran and Israel. The short - term market is driven by geopolitical conflicts, and the medium - to - long - term market awaits the summer demand peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all declined, with decreases of - 6.17%, - 6.04%, - 2.86%, and - 9.22% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude all decreased, with decreases of - 11.02%, - 6.04%, - 9.42%, - 8.81%, and - 8.95% respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude oil inventories decreased by 427.7 million barrels in the week ending June 20, and EIA inventories decreased by 1147.3 million barrels in the week ending June 13. Cushing region inventories decreased by 99.5 million barrels in the week ending June 13. As of June 24, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 402.9 million barrels [3]. 5. Position Data - As of June 17, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds increased, with the net long position of WTI crude oil funds increasing by 39,107 to 231,048, and the net long position of Brent crude oil funds increasing by 76,253 to 273,175 [3][17][19].
大越期货原油早报-20250609
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 03:47
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The Sino-US trade negotiation is still progressing, and the market risk preference is positive. The new non-farm payrolls in the US in May were slightly better than expected, but the data for the previous two months were significantly revised downward, reducing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, Trump is still pressuring the Fed. In the short term, there is a slight support from the macro level. The unexpected significant decline of 19 units in the US weekly rig data has led to the expectation of a possible decline in US production, pushing up oil prices to some extent, with the possibility of breaking through the upper resistance level. Investors should pay attention to position control. The short-term price range is 470 - 480, and long-term investors can hold long positions with a light position [3]. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2507, the fundamentals are neutral due to factors such as the upcoming Sino-US high - level talks, US employment data, and US sanctions against Iran - related entities. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. US API and EIA inventories decreased more than expected, but Cushing area inventory increased, and Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged, overall being bullish. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price above it, which is neutral. The main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil are long and increasing, which is bullish [3]. 2. Recent News - Oil prices are affected by tariff negotiation news, trade uncertainty, and data on the impact of US taxation on the global economy. The fuel market is relatively strong, and the supply - surplus situation has not been reflected in inventory data. The futures market is in a state of backwardation in the near future and will turn to contango from May 2026. The potential risks of increased US sanctions on Venezuela and Israeli attacks on Iranian infrastructure increase the upside risk of oil prices, while weakening oil demand and OPEC+ and non - OPEC production increases will add downward pressure on oil prices in the future. Saudi Arabia has lowered the crude oil price for Asia in July, and the market is expected to balance in Q2 and Q3 and have a larger surplus in Q4 2025. The number of US oil and gas rigs has declined for six consecutive weeks [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the approaching breakdown of US - Iran negotiations and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Bearish factors include OPEC+ increasing production for three consecutive months and the continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies. The short - term price is driven by geopolitical conflicts, and in the long - term, it awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil all increased, with increases of 1.73%, 1.91%, 0.69%, and 0.42% respectively. Spot prices of various types of crude oil also generally increased, with Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, Victory, and Dubai crude oil increasing by 1.61%, 1.91%, 0.78%, 0.13%, and 0.50% respectively. API and EIA inventories decreased in the week ending May 30, with API inventories decreasing by 3300000 barrels and EIA inventories decreasing by 4304000 barrels [7][9][10][15]. 5. Position Data - As of June 3, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds increased. The net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 2263 to 167957, and the net long position of Brent crude oil funds increased by 8813 to 167763 [18][21].
大越期货原油早报-20250605
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 03:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil first rose and then fell. EIA crude oil inventory drawdown exceeded expectations, providing support for the market. However, inventory build - up in downstream gasoline and refined oil products limited the upside potential of crude oil. Saudi Aramco's price cut for its flagship Arab Light crude oil sold to Asia in July indicated that oil - producing countries were starting to compete for market share. With the supply side continuing to increase production, crude oil faced significant upward pressure. Geopolitical conditions deteriorated, but Russia - Ukraine and US - Iran still considered continuing negotiations, resulting in insufficient short - term bullish stimuli. Short - term trading is expected to range between 455 - 465, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, lowered prices for Asian crude buyers to near four - year lows, aiming to regain market share. The US May ISM services PMI was 49.9, far below the expected 52, with the new orders index dropping 5.9 points to 46.4. US - EU trade negotiations progressed rapidly, and new US metal tariffs added urgency to the talks [3]. - **Basis**: On June 4, the spot price of Oman crude was $64.98 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $64.66 per barrel. The basis was 16.78 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory decreased by 3.3 million barrels in the week ending May 30, exceeding the expected 0.9 million barrels. EIA inventory decreased by 4.304 million barrels, also exceeding the expected 1.035 million barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 0.576 million barrels. As of June 4, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.029 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was near the moving average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of May 27, the main long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil both decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term trading is expected to range between 455 - 465, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Geopolitics**: Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia's "peace conditions" were "ultimatums," but he was still willing to meet with Russian President Putin. Putin was skeptical about the possibility of a summit [5]. - **Inventory**: The US EIA reported that last week's commercial crude inventory decreased by 4.3 million barrels to 436.06 million barrels, while gasoline inventory increased by 5.2 million barrels to 228.3 million barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 4.2 million barrels to 107.6 million barrels. Refinery crude processing volume increased by 670,000 barrels per day, and refinery utilization rate rose by 3.2% to 93.4%. US crude net imports increased by 389,000 barrels, and Cushing crude inventory increased by 0.576 million barrels [5]. - **Price**: Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price (OSP) of its flagship Arab Light crude oil sold to Asia in July to a premium of $1.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, down from $1.40 in June [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The US - Iran negotiation was close to breakdown, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict intensified [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: OPEC+ increased production for three consecutive months, and the US had continuous tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts provided upward momentum, while medium - to long - term demand was expected to pick up during the summer peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil were $64.86, $62.85, 467.6 yuan, and $64.74 respectively, with changes of - 0.77 (- 1.17%), - 0.56 (- 0.88%), 2.60 (0.56%), and 0.22 (0.34%) compared to the previous day [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil were $66.61, $62.85, $64.98, $63.43, and $64.65 respectively, with changes of - 1.49 (- 2.19%), - 0.56 (- 0.88%), 0.48 (0.74%), 0.78 (1.25%), and 0.17 (0.26%) compared to the previous day [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory decreased by 3.3 million barrels to 461.098 million barrels in the week ending May 30. EIA inventory decreased by 4.304 million barrels to 436.059 million barrels in the same week [10][15]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of May 27, the net long position was 165,694, a decrease of 20,726 [18]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of May 27, the net long position was 158,950, a decrease of 4,379 [21].
OPEC+连续三月增产叠加地缘风险升温,油价呈现震荡上行态势
智通财经网· 2025-06-02 00:21
Group 1 - OPEC+ has approved an increase in daily production quotas by 411,000 barrels, consistent with previous months' increases, aligning with market expectations [4] - The decision to increase production contrasts with earlier rumors of a faster recovery of capacity, which had pressured oil prices downward [4] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear program, are significant factors influencing oil prices [4][5] Group 2 - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran's enriched uranium production has reached a historic high, raising concerns about potential military applications [5] - Despite short-term geopolitical factors supporting oil prices, the market faces downward pressures due to ongoing US-China trade tensions and expectations of slowing global economic growth [5] - The strategy of oil-producing countries has shifted from "price protection" to "market share protection," balancing fiscal needs with market capacity through gradual production increases [5]
大越期货原油早报-20250528
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 02:56
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight crude oil continued to fluctuate. OPEC+ may continue to increase crude oil production in July, which will suppress the market. However, Trump's threat to Russia provides geopolitical support for oil prices. The easing of relations with the EU also restores confidence in the financial market. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to operate in the 450 - 460 range in the short term and hold long - term long positions lightly [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2507, the fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that the spot premium over the futures is bullish; inventory data is bearish; the disk is bearish; the main positions are bullish. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, with a recommended short - term operating range of 450 - 460 and long - term long positions held lightly [6]. 2. Recent News - The UAE Energy Minister said OPEC+ is working to balance the oil market but needs to be vigilant about demand growth challenges. The alliance will hold meetings to decide on the July production increase policy. The Iran nuclear negotiation has made breakthrough progress, and the market expects Iranian crude oil production to impact the market after sanctions are lifted. - Trump criticized Putin for refusing a cease - fire negotiation, and his frustration with Russia increased. - Trump said his threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU was successful, and the EU - US trade situation has eased [7]. 3. Long - Short Focus - **Likely to Rise**: The US threatens sanctions on Iran; Venezuelan crude oil also faces sanctions risks; there are signs of easing in the trade war. - **Likely to Fall**: The optimism of the demand side remains to be verified; OPEC+ continues to increase production. - **Market Drivers**: The resonance of damaged demand due to US policies and possible rapid supply increases. - **Risk Points**: The breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity; the escalation of war risks [8]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude have changed. Brent crude decreased by 0.55 to 63.57 (a decrease of 0.86%); WTI crude decreased by 0.59 to 60.89 (a decrease of 0.96%); SC crude increased by 1.00 to 457.4 (an increase of 0.22%); Oman crude increased by 0.55 to 63.81 (an increase of 0.87%) [9]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of various types of crude oil such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, etc. have changed, with different increases and decreases [10]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory increased by 249.9 million barrels in the week ending May 16, contrary to the expected decrease. EIA inventory increased by 132.8 million barrels in the same period, also contrary to the expected decrease. Cushing area inventory decreased by 45.7 million barrels in the week ending May 16. As of May 27, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 402.9 million barrels [6]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Fund Net Long Positions**: As of May 13, the net long position was 185,301, an increase of 9,873 [18]. - **Brent Crude Fund Net Long Positions**: As of May 13, the net long position was 151,144, an increase of 53,586 [21].
原油燃料油日报:中美贸易谈判进展顺利,原油维持反弹态势-20250512
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 09:20
原油燃料油日报:中美贸易谈判进展顺利,原油维持反弹态势 一、日度市场总结 需求端: 原油期货市场日度总结(2025年05月09日) 数据变化分析 价格走势:中国SC原油期货价格显著走高,5月9日报472.4元/桶,较前日上涨 2.47%,盘中波动区间为[458.9, 472.4],显示短期买盘活跃;WTI和Brent期货 价格维持稳定,分别持稳于60.28美元/桶和63.12美元/桶。 价差变化:SC-Brent价差大幅走强至2.07美元/桶(+250.85%),SC-WTI价差 同步扩大至4.91美元/桶(+43.15%),反映SC相对外盘溢价显著提升;Brent- WTI价差维持2.84美元/桶不变,表明欧美市场供需结构稳定;SC连-连3价差小 幅上扬至15.5元/桶(+6.9%),近月合约支撑增强。 供需及库存分析 供给端: OPEC+政策延续:OPEC+于5月会议宣布维持现有减产协议,但俄罗斯计划小 幅提高6月出口量,引发市场对供应松动的担忧。 美国产能扩张:贝克休斯钻井数连续三周回升至620台(资讯未提及具体数值但 趋势存在),页岩油产量或逐步释放。 地缘风险扰动:中东局势紧张(资讯提及伊朗油轮遇袭 ...
MultiBank:美原油价格波动 贸易谈判疑虑与伊朗核协议希望交织?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 10:05
投资者疑虑 投资者对贸易谈判能否取得突破表示怀疑,这种疑虑情绪在周三的油价走势中表现得尤为明显。贸易谈 判的不确定性增加了市场的波动性,投资者在等待谈判结果的同时,对市场的前景感到担忧。这种不确 定性不仅影响了原油市场,也对整体经济前景产生了影响。 美联储的政策影响 美联储周三维持利率不变,但表示通胀和失业率上升的风险加剧。在美联储努力评估特朗普关税政策的 影响之际,这让经济前景更加扑簌迷离。美联储的政策决策对市场情绪产生了重要影响,投资者对未来 的经济走势和市场稳定性保持谨慎态度。 伊朗核协议的希望 供应忧虑缓解 美国副总统万斯在谈到华盛顿与伊朗的会谈时表示,"到目前为止,进展顺利",并表示将达成一项协 议,使伊朗重新融入全球经济,同时防止其获得核武器。这一消息缓解了市场对供应的忧虑,因为伊朗 是全球重要的石油生产国之一。如果伊朗能够重新融入全球经济,其石油供应将增加,这对原油市场是 一个积极的信号。 周四(北京时间5月8日),美原油交投于58美元/桶附近,油价周三盘中一度站上60美元/桶关口,但因 投资者怀疑贸易谈判能否取得突破,而伊朗与美国达成核协议的希望缓解了供应忧虑,最终收低近 2%。油价周三下跌超 ...