Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil first rose and then fell. EIA crude oil inventory drawdown exceeded expectations, providing support for the market. However, inventory build - up in downstream gasoline and refined oil products limited the upside potential of crude oil. Saudi Aramco's price cut for its flagship Arab Light crude oil sold to Asia in July indicated that oil - producing countries were starting to compete for market share. With the supply side continuing to increase production, crude oil faced significant upward pressure. Geopolitical conditions deteriorated, but Russia - Ukraine and US - Iran still considered continuing negotiations, resulting in insufficient short - term bullish stimuli. Short - term trading is expected to range between 455 - 465, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, lowered prices for Asian crude buyers to near four - year lows, aiming to regain market share. The US May ISM services PMI was 49.9, far below the expected 52, with the new orders index dropping 5.9 points to 46.4. US - EU trade negotiations progressed rapidly, and new US metal tariffs added urgency to the talks [3]. - **Basis**: On June 4, the spot price of Oman crude was $64.98 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $64.66 per barrel. The basis was 16.78 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory decreased by 3.3 million barrels in the week ending May 30, exceeding the expected 0.9 million barrels. EIA inventory decreased by 4.304 million barrels, also exceeding the expected 1.035 million barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 0.576 million barrels. As of June 4, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.029 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was near the moving average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of May 27, the main long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil both decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term trading is expected to range between 455 - 465, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Geopolitics**: Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia's "peace conditions" were "ultimatums," but he was still willing to meet with Russian President Putin. Putin was skeptical about the possibility of a summit [5]. - **Inventory**: The US EIA reported that last week's commercial crude inventory decreased by 4.3 million barrels to 436.06 million barrels, while gasoline inventory increased by 5.2 million barrels to 228.3 million barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 4.2 million barrels to 107.6 million barrels. Refinery crude processing volume increased by 670,000 barrels per day, and refinery utilization rate rose by 3.2% to 93.4%. US crude net imports increased by 389,000 barrels, and Cushing crude inventory increased by 0.576 million barrels [5]. - **Price**: Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price (OSP) of its flagship Arab Light crude oil sold to Asia in July to a premium of $1.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, down from $1.40 in June [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The US - Iran negotiation was close to breakdown, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict intensified [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: OPEC+ increased production for three consecutive months, and the US had continuous tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts provided upward momentum, while medium - to long - term demand was expected to pick up during the summer peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil were $64.86, $62.85, 467.6 yuan, and $64.74 respectively, with changes of - 0.77 (- 1.17%), - 0.56 (- 0.88%), 2.60 (0.56%), and 0.22 (0.34%) compared to the previous day [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil were $66.61, $62.85, $64.98, $63.43, and $64.65 respectively, with changes of - 1.49 (- 2.19%), - 0.56 (- 0.88%), 0.48 (0.74%), 0.78 (1.25%), and 0.17 (0.26%) compared to the previous day [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory decreased by 3.3 million barrels to 461.098 million barrels in the week ending May 30. EIA inventory decreased by 4.304 million barrels to 436.059 million barrels in the same week [10][15]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of May 27, the net long position was 165,694, a decrease of 20,726 [18]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of May 27, the net long position was 158,950, a decrease of 4,379 [21].

Group 1 - OPEC+ has approved an increase in daily production quotas by 411,000 barrels, consistent with previous months' increases, aligning with market expectations [4] - The decision to increase production contrasts with earlier rumors of a faster recovery of capacity, which had pressured oil prices downward [4] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear program, are significant factors influencing oil prices [4][5] Group 2 - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran's enriched uranium production has reached a historic high, raising concerns about potential military applications [5] - Despite short-term geopolitical factors supporting oil prices, the market faces downward pressures due to ongoing US-China trade tensions and expectations of slowing global economic growth [5] - The strategy of oil-producing countries has shifted from "price protection" to "market share protection," balancing fiscal needs with market capacity through gradual production increases [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight crude oil continued to fluctuate. OPEC+ may continue to increase crude oil production in July, which will suppress the market. However, Trump's threat to Russia provides geopolitical support for oil prices. The easing of relations with the EU also restores confidence in the financial market. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to operate in the 450 - 460 range in the short term and hold long - term long positions lightly [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2507, the fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that the spot premium over the futures is bullish; inventory data is bearish; the disk is bearish; the main positions are bullish. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, with a recommended short - term operating range of 450 - 460 and long - term long positions held lightly [6]. 2. Recent News - The UAE Energy Minister said OPEC+ is working to balance the oil market but needs to be vigilant about demand growth challenges. The alliance will hold meetings to decide on the July production increase policy. The Iran nuclear negotiation has made breakthrough progress, and the market expects Iranian crude oil production to impact the market after sanctions are lifted. - Trump criticized Putin for refusing a cease - fire negotiation, and his frustration with Russia increased. - Trump said his threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU was successful, and the EU - US trade situation has eased [7]. 3. Long - Short Focus - **Likely to Rise**: The US threatens sanctions on Iran; Venezuelan crude oil also faces sanctions risks; there are signs of easing in the trade war. - **Likely to Fall**: The optimism of the demand side remains to be verified; OPEC+ continues to increase production. - **Market Drivers**: The resonance of damaged demand due to US policies and possible rapid supply increases. - **Risk Points**: The breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity; the escalation of war risks [8]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude have changed. Brent crude decreased by 0.55 to 63.57 (a decrease of 0.86%); WTI crude decreased by 0.59 to 60.89 (a decrease of 0.96%); SC crude increased by 1.00 to 457.4 (an increase of 0.22%); Oman crude increased by 0.55 to 63.81 (an increase of 0.87%) [9]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of various types of crude oil such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, etc. have changed, with different increases and decreases [10]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory increased by 249.9 million barrels in the week ending May 16, contrary to the expected decrease. EIA inventory increased by 132.8 million barrels in the same period, also contrary to the expected decrease. Cushing area inventory decreased by 45.7 million barrels in the week ending May 16. As of May 27, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 402.9 million barrels [6]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Fund Net Long Positions**: As of May 13, the net long position was 185,301, an increase of 9,873 [18]. - **Brent Crude Fund Net Long Positions**: As of May 13, the net long position was 151,144, an increase of 53,586 [21].

原油燃料油日报：中美贸易谈判进展顺利，原油维持反弹态势 一、日度市场总结 需求端： 原油期货市场日度总结（2025年05月09日） 数据变化分析 价格走势：中国SC原油期货价格显著走高，5月9日报472.4元/桶，较前日上涨 2.47%，盘中波动区间为[458.9, 472.4]，显示短期买盘活跃；WTI和Brent期货 价格维持稳定，分别持稳于60.28美元/桶和63.12美元/桶。 价差变化：SC-Brent价差大幅走强至2.07美元/桶（+250.85%），SC-WTI价差 同步扩大至4.91美元/桶（+43.15%），反映SC相对外盘溢价显著提升；Brent- WTI价差维持2.84美元/桶不变，表明欧美市场供需结构稳定；SC连-连3价差小 幅上扬至15.5元/桶（+6.9%），近月合约支撑增强。 供需及库存分析 供给端： OPEC+政策延续：OPEC+于5月会议宣布维持现有减产协议，但俄罗斯计划小 幅提高6月出口量，引发市场对供应松动的担忧。 美国产能扩张：贝克休斯钻井数连续三周回升至620台（资讯未提及具体数值但 趋势存在），页岩油产量或逐步释放。 地缘风险扰动：中东局势紧张（资讯提及伊朗油轮遇袭 ...

投资者疑虑 投资者对贸易谈判能否取得突破表示怀疑，这种疑虑情绪在周三的油价走势中表现得尤为明显。贸易谈 判的不确定性增加了市场的波动性，投资者在等待谈判结果的同时，对市场的前景感到担忧。这种不确 定性不仅影响了原油市场，也对整体经济前景产生了影响。 美联储的政策影响 美联储周三维持利率不变，但表示通胀和失业率上升的风险加剧。在美联储努力评估特朗普关税政策的 影响之际，这让经济前景更加扑簌迷离。美联储的政策决策对市场情绪产生了重要影响，投资者对未来 的经济走势和市场稳定性保持谨慎态度。 伊朗核协议的希望 供应忧虑缓解 美国副总统万斯在谈到华盛顿与伊朗的会谈时表示，"到目前为止，进展顺利"，并表示将达成一项协 议，使伊朗重新融入全球经济，同时防止其获得核武器。这一消息缓解了市场对供应的忧虑，因为伊朗 是全球重要的石油生产国之一。如果伊朗能够重新融入全球经济，其石油供应将增加，这对原油市场是 一个积极的信号。 周四（北京时间5月8日），美原油交投于58美元/桶附近，油价周三盘中一度站上60美元/桶关口，但因 投资者怀疑贸易谈判能否取得突破，而伊朗与美国达成核协议的希望缓解了供应忧虑，最终收低近 2%。油价周三下跌超 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 4 月 30 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...