1月29日盘中，3月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格突破每桶70美元关口，创下去年9月以来新高；3月交 货的轻质原油期货价格一度涨超4%，突破每桶65美元关口。 （文章来源：上海证券报） ...

截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨82美分，收于每桶63.21美元，涨幅为 1.31%；3月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨83美分，收于每桶68.40美元，涨幅为1.23%。 国际油价28日上涨。 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed mixed results, with styrene futures experiencing a strong upward trend, closing at a price of 7651.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 7876.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.07% increase [1] - Styrene's market is currently exhibiting a strong performance, with institutions noting that the non-integrated profit margins are at a neutral to high level, indicating limited upward valuation space [2] - The supply side is characterized by a decrease in domestic supply despite some production resumption, while downstream demand is stabilizing with a slight decline as the pre-Spring Festival stocking period comes to an end, suggesting short-term price pressure [2] Group 2 - Recent operational issues in the North China region have led to a decrease in styrene production and capacity utilization rates, while downstream consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS has shown a month-on-month increase [3] - As the Spring Festival approaches, styrene inventories are entering a seasonal accumulation phase, but current inventory pressure remains manageable [3] - The cost side is supported by geopolitical tensions and adverse weather conditions in the U.S., which have contributed to a significant increase in international oil prices, with short-term styrene prices expected to fluctuate within a range of 7470-7720 CNY/ton [3]

Group 1: Currency Exchange Dynamics - The Canadian dollar (CAD) has significantly strengthened against the US dollar (USD), with a daily increase of 1.0618%, reaching a high of 1 CAD to 0.7374 USD, while also experiencing volatility with an 8-month low and a 16-month high [1] - The USD/CAD exchange rate has dropped below the critical level of 1.3700, hitting a new low of 1.3677 on January 26, indicating a bearish market dominated by short positions [1] - The divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) is a key factor supporting the CAD's performance, with the BoC maintaining a stable interest rate of 2.25% while the Fed's interest rate remains between 3.5% and 3.75% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Influence - The CAD is closely tied to international oil prices, with recent geopolitical risks raising supply concerns and stabilizing oil prices, which improves Canada's crude oil export outlook and supports the CAD [2] - However, long-term oil prices are pressured by global oversupply, and the potential resumption of Venezuelan oil imports by the US could exacerbate supply concerns, impacting Canadian crude exports [2] - The Canadian Prime Minister's plan to diversify oil exports aims to reduce reliance on the US, addressing long-term concerns for the CAD [2] Group 3: Economic Conditions - Canada's economic recovery is sluggish, with the unemployment rate rising to 6.8% in December 2025, reflecting a structural imbalance in employment and declining consumer confidence [2] - The Bank of Canada forecasts a GDP growth rate of only 1.1% for 2026, indicating weak fundamentals that limit the CAD's upward potential [2] - Trade uncertainties are highlighted by the upcoming summer 2026 review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), which could impact Canadian exports if terms change [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently weak, trading around 1.3677, with short-term support levels at 1.3600-1.3620 and resistance levels at 1.3760-1.3780 [3] - Institutions generally believe that the CAD's long-term appreciation potential is limited, with predictions of a moderate appreciation against the USD, centering around an exchange rate of 1.35 in 2026 [3] - Morgan Stanley suggests that the Fed's interest rate cuts will reinforce the USD's advantage, leading to a primarily volatile exchange rate in the short term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, the visible inventory of styrene enters the seasonal accumulation stage, and the current inventory pressure is not significant. Affected by the strong styrene spot, the profitability of integrated and non - integrated processes deepens. With the gradual resumption of plants, the tight supply - demand situation of styrene spot eases. In terms of cost, the market's concern about the Iranian situation has subsided, the troubled oil field in Kazakhstan is recovering, and international oil prices have fallen from high levels. In the short term, EB2603 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the daily range expected to be around 7470 - 7700 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of styrene was 7649 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan; the trading volume was down 56,375; the long position of the top 20 holders was 444,140 lots, a decrease of 420; the closing price of the March contract of styrene was 7649 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan; the open interest was down 28,663; the net long position of the top 20 holders was up 2,739; the short position of the top 20 holders was 472,803 lots, a decrease of 3,159; the total number of warehouse receipts was 2,480 lots, an increase of 500 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,748 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan; the mainstream price in Northeast China was 7,675 yuan/ton, an increase of 175 yuan; the mainstream price in South China was 7,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the mainstream price in North China was 7,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the mainstream price in East China was 7,905 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 706 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FD US Gulf price of ethylene was 424 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.5 US dollars; the CIF price of pure benzene in Taiwan was 776.29 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 285 cents/gallon, unchanged; the FOB price of pure benzene in Rotterdam was 899 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars; the market price of pure benzene in South China was 5,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of pure benzene in East China was 6,025 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan; the market price of pure benzene in North China was 5,940 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate was 69.63%, a decrease of 1.23 percentage points; the national styrene inventory was down 9,950 tons; the total inventory of the East China main port was 100,600 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 58.71%, an increase of 4.66 percentage points; the operating rate of ABS was 66.8%, a decrease of 3 percentage points; the operating rate of PS was 57.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point; the operating rate of UPR was 38%, a decrease of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 82.92%, unchanged [2] Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, the overall output of Chinese styrene plants was 349,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72%; the plant capacity utilization rate was 69.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23%. From January 16th to 22nd, the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 1.2% month - on - month to 270,800 tons. As of January 22nd, the styrene plant inventory was 151,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.17%. As of January 26th, the styrene inventory at the East China port was 100,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.59%; the styrene inventory at the South China port was 15,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25%. EB2603 fell and then rebounded, closing at 7,649 yuan/ton. A 300,000 - ton plant in North China had a fault and shut down last week, and the load of some plants in Northeast and South China was adjusted, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in styrene production and capacity utilization. The EPS operating rate increased significantly, while the operating rates of other downstream products mainly decreased. The consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS increased month - on - month. As of January 26th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was 682.07 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit of styrene was 1,477.16 yuan/ton [2]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing a downward trend followed by a narrow range of fluctuations, with the market awaiting signals from the Bank of Canada to break the current balance [1][4]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - As of January 27, the USD/CAD closed at 1.3716, fluctuating between 1.3700 and 1.3720, having declined from a high of 1.3928 at the beginning of the year [1]. - The exchange rate has tested recent lows, reaching 1.3669 on January 26, indicating a sustained weak consolidation without clear reversal signals [1][3]. - The technical indicators show a balance between bullish and bearish forces, with the price exhibiting a pattern of "not falling but not rising significantly" [3]. Group 2: Bank of Canada Policy Outlook - The Bank of Canada is likely to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, with the governor stating that the current rate is at an "appropriate level" [1]. - There is significant divergence among institutions regarding future interest rate movements, with some predicting a 50 basis point increase to 2.75% by year-end, while others anticipate a decrease below 2% [2]. - The ambiguity in policy expectations is limiting clear trading directions in the market, constraining the potential for unilateral price movements [2]. Group 3: Commodity and External Influences - The Canadian dollar's performance is closely tied to international oil prices, which are stabilizing around $61.10, providing direct support to the CAD [2]. - The weakening of the US dollar index, which has fallen to a four-month low, is acting as an external pressure factor on the USD/CAD exchange rate [2]. - The market is currently in a state of indecision, awaiting clarity on the Bank of Canada's policy, oil price trends, and the direction of the US dollar index to determine future movements [4].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a decline on January 26, with both WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices falling [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of the close of trading, the price of WTI crude oil for March delivery decreased by $0.44, settling at $60.63 per barrel, representing a decline of 0.72% [1] - The price of Brent crude oil for March delivery fell by $0.29, closing at $65.59 per barrel, which is a decrease of 0.44% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices in China have experienced their first increase of the year, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 85 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.07 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline and 0 diesel [2][3]. Price Impact - Consumers will see a slight increase in fuel costs; for example, filling a 50L tank of 92 octane gasoline will cost an additional 3.5 yuan, while a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers will incur an additional fuel cost of approximately 124 yuan before the next price adjustment [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The recent price adjustment is the second for 2026 and the first for this year [4]. - The international oil price has shown a mixed trend during the pricing cycle, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and South America, which supported oil prices for five consecutive days, resulting in a cumulative increase of over 10% [5][6]. - As of January 19, the domestic reference crude oil change rate turned positive at 2.03% [6]. Future Price Predictions - Analysts have differing views on the next round of fuel price adjustments. Some, like analyst Li Yan from Longzhong Information, suggest a high probability of price increases due to OPEC's decision to pause production increases and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [10][11]. - Analyst Gao Qingcui indicates that while geopolitical risks remain, macroeconomic pressures and industry oversupply may suppress upward momentum in oil prices, leading to a volatile market [12]. - Conversely, analyst Xu Peng believes there may be expectations for price stabilization, citing limited demand for diesel due to reduced industrial activity and sufficient supply from refineries [13][14]. Next Adjustment Window - The next price adjustment window is set to open at 24:00 on February 3 [15].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a slight increase on January 19, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rising by 0.15% to $59.43 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.03% to $64.15 per barrel [1] Group 1 - WTI crude oil price reached $59.43 per barrel, reflecting a 0.15% increase [1] - Brent crude oil price reached $64.15 per barrel, reflecting a 0.03% increase [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that President Trump has postponed the decision on whether to launch a military strike against Iran, while keeping all options open amid rising uncertainties [1] - The White House Press Secretary stated that Trump is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and has communicated with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, but details of their conversation remain undisclosed without Trump's explicit approval [1] - Multiple sources indicate that while military options are still on the table, there is significant uncertainty regarding the potential actions and their implications [1] Group 2 - Trump's advisory team has indicated that any large-scale military strike would require the deployment of additional U.S. military forces in the Middle East to protect American troops and allies, including Israel, from potential Iranian retaliation [1] - On the same day, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions against several individuals and entities linked to Iran, including the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Larijani, and 18 other individuals and entities involved in Iran's oil and petrochemical exports [1] - Following the announcement of sanctions, international oil prices experienced a significant drop, with NYMEX WTI crude oil falling over 4% and ICE Brent crude oil declining nearly 4% [1]