2025 年 6 月 27 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、铜、铝、锌、工业硅、多晶 硅、碳酸锂、螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、纯碱、PVC 期货将偏 强震荡 原油、燃料油期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3928 和 3964 点，支撑位 3889 和 3872 点；IH2509 阻力位 2728 和 2750 点，支撑位 2697 和 2682 点；IC2509 阻力位 5771 和 5838 点，支撑位 5690 和 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since January 20th when Trump took office, the ratio of SP contract price to NR contract price has strengthened from 0.39 to 0.43. Pulp's resistance to decline and the opportunity to stabilize after negative factors are realized are worth attention [66]. - The weak macro - environment suppresses both the upstream import and downstream export of pulp, resulting in relatively less negative impact on pulp in a weak pattern [66]. - The impact of the temporary shutdown of Finnpulp's Joutseno plant is limited. The long - fiber import volume has increased compared to the same period last year, which will offset the impact of the shutdown [71]. - The import, inventory, and consumption data of hardwood pulp show a trend of tightening balance, but hardwood pulp is still weak. It is advisable to wait and see the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [71]. - The operating conditions of the domestic papermaking industry have an increasing influence on pulp prices, but the current domestic data is not consistently bearish or bullish [71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Technical Analysis - Pulp - Rubber Spread and Commodity Turnover Rate - Since June, the communication between Chinese and US leaders and high - level consultations in London have eased trade relations, reducing negative factors for commodities. However, the reduction of negative factors for pulp is relatively small, and there is still an opportunity to enter the market when the spread reaches the previous low [6]. - Israel's full - scale attack on Iran this week led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The commodity turnover rate on June 13th verified that the 84% correlation between pulp and crude oil comes from consistent downstream consumption expectations. When crude oil price changes are due to supply, the impact on pulp is small; when due to consumption, the guidance for pulp price is strong [6]. 3.2 SP Single - Side - US Policy and International Oil Price - From June to now, the US economic policy uncertainty index has declined for the second consecutive month, reaching 432.6 points. Its 12 - month average increased by 77.1% year - on - year, hitting a new high since April 2021, with 12 consecutive months of expanding growth, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. - In May, international oil prices decreased month - on - month, reaching $62.8 per barrel. Its 3 - month average decreased by 23.9% year - on - year, with 4 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. 3.3 SP Single - Side - International Trade & Dollar Index - In May, China's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching $529 billion. Its 6 - month cumulative value increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for SP valuation [19]. - In May, the real broad - based dollar index decreased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 116.6 points. Its 9 - month average increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with 15 consecutive months of marginal increase. The general cycle of the dollar index is 23 months, which is negative for SP single - side [19]. 3.4 SP Single - Side - Canadian Trade and Global Stock Market - In April, Canada's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching 128 billion Canadian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. It lags behind pulp prices and the negative impact has been fully realized [26]. - In April, the global stock market capitalization increased slightly month - on - month, reaching $119.9 trillion. Its 12 - month cumulative value increased by 7.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth [26]. 3.5 SP Single - Side - Softwood Data - The Joutseno softwood pulp mill of Finnpulp has temporarily shut down. In May, the inventory of European bleached softwood pulp decreased month - on - month to 238,000 tons, and consumption increased by 269,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. - In April, domestic softwood chip imports remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp imports decreased month - on - month to 838,000 tons. The total long - fiber import was 843,000 tons. The 6 - month cumulative value decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of narrowing decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. 3.6 Inventory - SP Single - Side & Hardwood - Softwood Spread - In May, the social inventory of pulp in ports including Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, and Tianjin increased month - on - month to 2.159 million tons. The SP inventory decreased month - on - month to 275,200 tons. The total of social and futures inventory was 2.434 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, which is negative for SP single - side and has been fully realized [39]. - In May, the ratio of social inventory to futures inventory was 7.84 times. Its 6 - month average increased by 35.4% year - on - year, which is negative for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread but with limited amplitude [39]. 3.7 SP Single - Side - Import and Export - In May, the domestic pulp import value increased month - on - month to $1.906 billion. In April, the US pulp import value decreased month - on - month to $308 million. The combined value (with a one - month lag) was $2.214 billion. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [46]. - In May, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 5.4% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline [46]. 3.8 SP Single - Side - Domestic Papermaking Output and Inventory - In April, the electricity consumption of the domestic papermaking industry decreased month - on - month to 838 million kWh. The 12 - month cumulative electricity consumption increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with 9 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is negative for SP single - side [53]. - In April, the finished product inventory of the domestic papermaking industry increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 77.57 billion yuan. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with 13 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase [53]. 3.9 Hardwood - Softwood Pulp Spread - Import and Output - In April, the import of hardwood chips was 994,000 tons, the lowest since August 2023. The import of hardwood pulp decreased to 1.204 million tons, softwood chips remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp decreased to 838,000 tons. The ratio of short - fiber to long - fiber import was 2.02 times. Its 12 - month average increased by 13.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [59]. - In May, the consumption of hardwood pulp in domestic papermaking was 2.274 million tons, and that of softwood pulp was 534,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times. Its 9 - month average increased by 7.1% year - on - year, with 7 consecutive months of expanding growth [59].

6月3日下午，意大利华人华侨社团联合考察团到访厦门国际银行北京分行。此次考察团由来自意大利的8个华人华侨社团组成，厦门国际银行 北京分行作为北京侨商会轮值会长单位接待此次来访。市政府侨办、市侨联有关人员，厦门国际银行北京分行行长、北京侨商会轮值会长王 萌，北京侨商会副会长、盛唐时代文化传媒集团总公司董事长赵晓雯，北京侨商会青委会轮值主席、北京世纪百程科技发展有限公司总经理李 琛，北京侨商会秘书长孙蓓，以及厦门国际银行北京分行相关人员参加。 意大利华侨华人社团联合考察团团长、意大利米兰浙江侨商联合会会长、LA CASCATA餐饮公司董事长林茂风对北京侨商会及北京分行的热 情接待表示由衷感谢。他介绍了意大利侨商发展现状及产业演变历程，强调海外侨商熟悉当地市场，能为国内企业"走出去"提供贴心指导。他 希望以本次交流为起点，建立两地侨商组织、银企之间的常态化联系机制，持续助力国内企业拓展海外发展空间。 考察团首先参观了北京分行"不忘初心 牢记嘱托"专题展厅，了解了厦门国际银行依托华侨基因打造的特色金融服务体系，以及在华侨金融、 跨境金融创新等领域取得的成果。座谈会上，王萌行长对远道而来的意大利华侨华人社团联合考察团表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The political and economic landscape of Latin America has significantly changed since the beginning of the century, with a decline in U.S. influence and a strengthening relationship with China, highlighted by the recent visa waiver policy for five South American countries [3][6]. Group 1: Trade Relations with Brazil - China has been Brazil's largest trading partner for the past 15 years, with bilateral trade expected to reach $188.17 billion by 2024, equivalent to the cost of building 15 Ford-class aircraft carriers [8]. - In 2024, China imported 72.6 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, accounting for three-quarters of Brazil's total soybean exports, and nearly half of Brazil's beef exports (2.89 million tons) went to China [9]. - Chinese exports to Brazil reached $72.08 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22%, with significant imports of industrial products and technology [11]. Group 2: Trade Relations with Peru - Since the implementation of the free trade agreement in 2010, Peru's exports to China have increased nearly fivefold, with China being Peru's largest trading partner for ten consecutive years [14]. - In 2024, Peru's mineral exports to China totaled $22.93 billion, with copper making up over two-thirds of this amount, and China accounted for 42.4% of Peru's total copper exports [16]. - China also invested in mining projects in Peru, and the newly opened QianKai Port is expected to change the maritime trade dynamics between Asia and the Americas [27][28]. Group 3: Trade Relations with Chile - China has been Chile's largest trading partner since 2009, with trade volume reaching $58.7 billion in 2024, where Chile's exports to China accounted for 37.3% of its total exports [32]. - In 2024, Chile exported $2.63 billion worth of lithium carbonate to China, with over 70% of this amount going to China, and 66% of copper exports were also directed to China [35]. - Chinese mobile phones have gained significant market share in Chile, with Honor's market share increasing by 60% in 2024 [36]. Group 4: Trade Relations with Argentina - China is Argentina's second-largest trading partner, with a notable increase in imports from China, which grew by 74% in the first two months of 2025 [42]. - In early 2025, 80% of Argentina's clothing imports came from China, reflecting a 90% increase compared to the previous year [44]. - China is a major buyer of Argentine agricultural products, purchasing three-quarters of Argentina's beef exports in 2024 [46]. Group 5: Trade Relations with Uruguay - Since 2012, China has been Uruguay's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $6.59 billion in 2024, where China is the largest buyer of Uruguay's pulp, beef, and soybeans [48]. - Chinese imports to Uruguay include a wide range of industrial products, indicating a strong presence of Chinese goods in various sectors of the Uruguayan economy [49].

逆境之下，多达89%的全球企业对未来两年实现国际业务增长仍抱有信心，中国企业的比例达到90%。 具体来看，84%的中国受访企业将当下的压力视为"创新的催化剂"，促使他们积极寻求新机遇来应对挑 战。85%的中国企业选择开拓新的海外市场，81%选择增加国内市场销售。在海外拓展方面，中国企业 正加速推进多元化布局，28%计划增加与欧洲和中东的贸易往来，27%看好南亚。 汇丰集团近期一项面向全球企业的贸易前景调查显示，在关税和贸易政策不确定性的压力下，中国依然 是全球企业计划增加贸易往来、加码生产制造的主要市场。 调查由汇丰于4月底至5月初进行，面向全球13个市场的5700多家有国际业务的企业，其中包括1000家中 国内地企业。 调查显示，全球企业普遍通过调整贸易策略应对新的形势，包括重新评估各大市场对其贸易增长的重要 性。在计划增加贸易往来的目标市场中，中国获受访企业选择的比例最高，达到44%，其次是欧洲的 43%和美国的39%。在生产制造方面，中国也受到全球企业青睐，40%受访企业正在或计划未来两年增 加在中国的产品制造，仅次于选择欧洲的45%。从区域分布看，亚洲企业选择增加与中国的贸易往来和 增加在中国制造的比 ...

期货日报网讯（记者 刘威魁）汇丰集团近期面向全球企业的一项贸易前景调查显示，随着关税和贸易 政策的不确定性持续影响国际贸易，全球企业普遍面临成本攀升、收入下降等压力，并正调整贸易策略 积极应对。在此背景下，中国依然是全球企业计划增加贸易往来、加码生产制造的主要市场。与此同 时，中国企业以创新动力和全球布局为突破，对进一步提升国际业务保持乐观。 汇丰银行（中国）有限公司行长兼行政总裁王云峰表示："由关税干扰引发的全球贸易动荡无疑给商业 活动带来了巨大冲击，全球企业正在通过拓展新市场和提升供应链管理等多种方式积极应对挑战。我们 的调查进一步印证了亚洲市场间的经贸联系正在深化，同时亚洲与中东之间的贸易走廊也愈发活跃，而 中国依然是世界贸易版图的重心所在。我们坚信，未来中国市场将以科技创新的强大潜力，叠加市场规 模、产业链供应链等传统优势，继续为海内外企业提供增长'引擎力'。" 尽管面临贸易逆风，令人鼓舞的是，全球企业（89%）对未来两年内实现国际业务增长仍抱有信心，其 中也包括中国企业（90%）。具体来看，超八成（84%）中国受访企业将当下面临的压力视为创新的催 化剂，并促使他们积极寻求新机遇来应对挑战，包括开拓新 ...

不同国家对食品接触材料的技术标准存在差异。韩国的标准与其他国家可能不尽相同，这就要求出口企 业在研发和生产过程中充分考虑这些差异，以确保产品能够符合韩国市场的要求。 1.3检测和认证 韩国规定食品接触材料多元化经过特定的检测和认证，许多企业可能缺乏相关的检测能力和认证渠道。 此外，检测过程通常需要时间和成本，这对中小企业来说是一个不小的负担。 1.4市场竞争压力 随着越来越多的国际品牌进入韩国市场，市场竞争愈发激烈。企业不仅需要关注合规性，还需要在质量 和价格上具备竞争力。这种压力可能会影响企业在产品研发和质量控制上的投入。 这是(Zou-MQ)整理的信息，希望能帮助到大家 食品接触产品出口韩国的材料要求是一个复杂而重要的领域，涉及到多个方面的监管和标准。随着国际 贸易的不断发展，越来越多的企业希望将其产品出口到韩国市场。然而，在这个过程中，食品接触材料 的合规性成为了一个关键问题。本文将从现存的挑战入手，分析解决方法，并展望未来的发展方向。 1.现存挑战 1.1法规复杂性 韩国对食品接触材料的监管法规较为复杂，涵盖了多个方面，包括材料的成分、安全性评估、标识要求 等。企业在了解和遵循这些法规时常常面临困难， ...

Group 1: Current Status and Potential of Hydrogen Development - Northwest Europe is a leader in low-emissions hydrogen development, accounting for 40% of Europe's total hydrogen demand, with significant renewable energy and carbon storage potential in the North Sea [1][21][14] - The region aims to develop 30-35 GW of electrolyser capacity by 2030, but most projects are still in early development stages, relying on supportive policies and regulatory frameworks [1][15][25] Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Framework - The EU and Northwest European countries are advancing hydrogen strategies, with France lowering its 2030 electrolyser capacity target to 4.5 GW and introducing a new 2035 target of 8 GW [2][24][76] - Germany has launched a hydrogen import strategy, while Switzerland has released its first national hydrogen strategy, emphasizing market integration with neighboring countries [2][24] Group 3: Supply, Demand, and Infrastructure - Current hydrogen demand in Northwest Europe is approximately 3 million tonnes per year, primarily from refining and chemicals, with potential production reaching 8 million tonnes by 2030 if all planned projects are realized [3][31][27] - The region plans to build nearly 13,000 km of hydrogen pipelines by the early 2030s, with 49% being repurposed natural gas pipelines, and aims for 16 TWh of underground hydrogen storage capacity [3][44][46] Group 4: Technological and Cost Challenges - Northwest Europe holds 85% of Europe's electrolyser manufacturing capacity, but project delays and insufficient orders have led to production cuts and restructuring among manufacturers [4][36][38] - Renewable hydrogen prices are projected to be 2.5 times higher than natural gas-based hydrogen in 2024, necessitating cost reductions through scale and policy support [4][38] Group 5: Regional Cooperation and International Trade - Regional collaboration is emphasized to enhance market efficiency, with initiatives like the "Green Octopus 2.0" plan and the H2Global auction mechanism in Germany to attract global suppliers [5][42] - By 2030, global hydrogen trade could reach 8 million tonnes, with Northwest Europe accounting for 60% of imports, primarily from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas [5][42] Group 6: Summary and Future Outlook - Northwest Europe has advantages in resources, technology, and infrastructure for low-emissions hydrogen but must accelerate policy implementation and cross-border collaboration to meet 2030 targets [6] - The potential applications of hydrogen in industrial decarbonization and maritime fuels are expected to drive market expansion [6]

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the international trade and investment landscape will undergo changes due to the tariff policies of the Trump administration, with three key areas of focus: cost-effectiveness rebalancing, internal economic structure adjustments in major economies, and currency rebalancing [1][2][4] Group 2 - Cost-effectiveness rebalancing in international trade and investment may increase opportunities for "global south" and emerging market countries, as traditional factors like labor and resources are now joined by innovation, institutional, and green development elements [1][2] - The difficulty of manufacturing returning to the U.S. is highlighted, as the U.S. lacks competitive strength in general processing and labor-intensive industries, leading to a preference for trade and investment in countries with lower costs and tariffs [2] - Major economies will experience profound adjustments in their internal economic structures due to global trade rebalancing, with the U.S. trade deficit increasing over 50% from 2017 to 2024, while the EU's trade surplus has grown over 400% [2] Group 3 - Currency rebalancing is expected to lead to a more diverse and inclusive global monetary system, with more currencies joining the international monetary ranks and increased participation of emerging market currencies in trade and investment [2][4] - The importance of digital currencies is emphasized, particularly their potential role as public goods for international cross-border trade and investment [3] - The possibility of enhancing the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) function is also discussed, indicating a shift towards a more diverse and inclusive monetary system [4]