Report Overview - Report Title: Bond Market Weekly Report - Operational Ideas for Holding Bonds over the Holiday from the Perspective of Calendar Effect - Report Date: September 27, 2025 - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided Core Viewpoints - In October, the marginal impact of incremental negative factors in the bond market may ease, but there is still uncertainty in the post - holiday bond market performance. Currently, the problem with the capital gain strategy is that the odds of going long are insufficient due to the constraint of interest rate cut expectations. It is recommended to adopt a short - end coupon strategy for holding bonds over the holiday. Holding short - term (less than 2 years), medium - to high - grade credit bonds and certificates of deposit over the holiday is a more conservative strategy [1][24]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Observation 1.1 Calendar Effect - The calendar effect of interest rate trends in October is weak. After the National Day in most years, interest rates tend to rise, mainly due to the influence of broad fiscal policies and policy expectations in October. Except for 2022 (when fundamental data was weak and interest rates declined rapidly) and 2024 (when the equity market exhausted its positive factors after a package of policies and interest rates fluctuated), interest rates in most years since 2019 faced significant upward pressure, driven by factors such as inflation expectations, supply acceleration expectations, broad fiscal expectations, and the disappointment of double - rate cuts. This year, the long - and short - term factors are more complex, and the probability of bond market fluctuations is high [11][16]. 1.2 Post - holiday Key Points - The downward space of long - term interest rates after the holiday depends on the central bank's interest rate cut and bond - buying rhythm. According to the Q3 monetary policy meeting, "implementing and refining" is the main tone of the central bank's current monetary policy. The market's expectation of the central bank's interest rate cut after the holiday should be neither overly pessimistic nor overly optimistic. - The capital market game will be complex around the short - term results of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October and the next round of China - US negotiations. - After the holiday, the market's expectation of the fund fee rate new regulations will become clearer, and the number of panic - driven adjustments in the bond market may decrease [17][18][20]. 1.3 Technical Analysis - Since July, the rebound strength of interest rates has gradually weakened. The rebound time of the 10 - year Treasury active bond has become shorter, and the rebound amplitude has become smaller. The TL price has broken through the intraday low in March, forming an "M - head" double - top pattern. The overall market sentiment is still fragile. The adjustment of secondary perpetual bonds has accelerated, and the pressure on long - term credit bonds remains to be released. From the carry perspective, it is more conservative to hold short - term (less than 2 years), medium - to high - grade credit bonds and certificates of deposit over the holiday [21][24]. 2. Bond Market Asset Performance - The report provides multiple charts related to bond market asset performance, including the Treasury yield curve, Treasury bond yields, certificate of deposit yields, etc., but no specific text summary of these data is provided [27][28][29]. 3. High - frequency Entity Tracking 3.1 Price - related - This week, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fluctuated slightly downward, while international crude oil prices rose. Brent crude oil rose by $1.98 per barrel, and WTI crude oil rose by $1.41 per barrel. Prices generally increased, except for a slight decline in pork prices. The average wholesale price of vegetables rose by 0.1 yuan per kilogram, and that of fruits rose by 0.11 yuan per kilogram. The average wholesale price of beef rose by 0.72 yuan per kilogram, and that of mutton rose by 0.65 yuan per kilogram, while the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.06 yuan per kilogram [36]. 3.2 Industry - related - This week, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index declined. The prices of glass and coking coal showed different trends, and the supply side recovered. The futures closing price of glass rose by 36 yuan per ton, while that of coking coal decreased by 35.5 yuan per ton. The blast furnace operating rate increased slightly by 0.47%, and the petroleum asphalt operating rate increased by 5.7% [41]. 3.3 Investment and Real Estate - related - This week, the transaction volume data in the investment and real estate sector showed signs of recovery. The transaction land area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities and the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - sized cities both increased. The decline of the second - hand housing listing price index slowed down but remained at a historical low. The cumulative value of housing completion area increased compared with last month but was still lower than the historical average [52]. 3.4 Travel and Consumption - related - This week, travel and consumption data were mixed. The subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while that in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. The movie box office revenue increased and exceeded the historical average. The retail sales of passenger cars increased by 9.2% compared with the same period last month, while the number of domestic flights decreased [56].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent monetary policy changes by central banks, particularly the Riksbank of Sweden, which has lowered its policy rate to 1.75% as part of an ongoing easing cycle that began in May 2024, resulting in a total of 8 rate cuts from 4% [2][4] - The Riksbank aims to support economic activity and stabilize inflation around target levels, with expectations that the policy rate will remain at 1.75% for the foreseeable future, and no further cuts are anticipated until the end of 2028 [4] - Sweden's inflation remains high, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 1.1% year-on-year in August, marking the highest level in six months, while the central bank projects a lower annual inflation rate of 0.8% and GDP growth of only 0.9% for the year [4] Group 2 - The article discusses global trends in monetary policy, noting that prior to the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, several countries, including Peru and Turkey, had already initiated their own rate reductions [6] - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the recent rate cut was a response to increasing risks in the labor market, with the core PCE inflation rate at 2.3%, suggesting that inflationary pressures are still present but not widespread [7][8] - Powell emphasized that the Fed's policy stance remains slightly restrictive even after the rate cut, and future decisions will be based on evolving economic data and risk assessments [8]

Group 1 - Citi reports that the sovereign rating adjustments in the Eurozone are active, with 11 countries experiencing rating changes since the beginning of the year, surpassing the total number of changes in 2018 [1] - XTB highlights that the UK's net borrowing reached £18 billion in August, the highest for the same period in five years, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of public finances [1] - Morgan Stanley no longer expects the Bank of England to cut rates further this year, marking a significant change in their previous outlook [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Bank of England will not lower interest rates this year, with the next round of easing expected to begin in February 2026 [3] - UBS anticipates multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the next 12 months, while the European Central Bank is expected to maintain stable rates, leading to a decrease in the dollar's attractiveness [3] - Optiver's COO notes that synchronized rate cuts by central banks have reduced foreign exchange volatility, aligning with the macroeconomic backdrop of converging interest rates [3]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis predicts that the Bank of Indonesia may lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter, bringing it down to 4.50%, with a risk of further easing to 4.25% due to economic conditions [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Recent interest rate cuts to 4.75% reflect a shift in policy focus towards supporting economic growth amid weak consumer demand, a tight labor market, and recent social unrest [1] - Moderate inflation and relative stability of the Indonesian Rupiah provide the central bank with room for policy easing [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Given the government's emphasis on supporting growth, there may be further rate cuts in 2026, potentially lowering the policy rate to 4.00% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that Bank Indonesia is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% in the fourth quarter, with a risk of further easing to 4.25% due to weak consumption and labor market tensions [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Weak consumer spending and a tight labor market are influencing the central bank's decision to shift its focus towards supporting economic growth [1] - Recent social unrest has also contributed to the need for a more accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 2: Inflation and Currency Stability - Inflation remains moderate, and the stability of the Indonesian Rupiah provides the central bank with room for policy easing [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The emphasis on supporting economic growth by the government suggests that there may be further rate cuts in 2026, potentially bringing the policy rate down to 4.00% [1]

Core Viewpoint - New Zealand's economy contracted more than expected in the second quarter due to rising unemployment and global uncertainties affecting demand [1] Economic Performance - The revised GDP for the first quarter showed a growth of 0.9%, while the GDP for the three months ending in June decreased by 0.9%, contrasting with economists' expectations of a 0.3% contraction [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The sluggish response of the economy to significant interest rate cuts by the central bank suggests that cooling demand may alleviate inflationary pressures, potentially allowing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to further lower interest rates by the end of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - A significant global monetary policy shift is anticipated as multiple central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, prepare to announce interest rate decisions within a short timeframe, impacting global capital flows and financial markets [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is particularly noteworthy due to recent personnel changes, including the confirmation of Stephen Milan as a board member, which may influence the decision-making process [2]. - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points, with a possibility of a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points, influenced by the voting inclinations of newly confirmed members [2]. - Analysts predict a more dovish outlook in the Fed's dot plot, with guidance suggesting 2 to 3 rate cuts in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Other Central Banks' Actions - The Bank of England is expected to maintain its interest rate at 4%, following a previous cut of 25 basis points, which was narrowly approved [3]. - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to hold its rates steady, with market participants looking for signals regarding future rate hikes amid ongoing inflation pressures [3]. - Several countries, including Peru and Turkey, have already initiated rate cuts, with Peru reducing its rate by 25 basis points and Turkey by 250 basis points, indicating a trend towards easing monetary policy in response to local economic conditions [4]. Group 3: Emerging Markets and Global Implications - Emerging market central banks are influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies, facing pressures such as currency depreciation and capital outflows, which may dictate their monetary policy adjustments [5]. - The potential for the Fed to cut rates could create more room for other central banks to adjust their policies, although actions will depend on each country's economic fundamentals [5].

Group 1 - The upcoming week is termed "Super Central Bank Week," with major central banks including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan set to announce their interest rate decisions within a short timeframe [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's decisions are particularly influential, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut of 25 basis points, and a possibility of a 50 basis points cut due to recent personnel changes within the Fed [2][3] - The Bank of Canada is also expected to follow suit with a rate cut, while the Bank of England is anticipated to maintain its rate at 4% amidst a complex economic situation [3] Group 2 - Several countries have already initiated rate cuts, with the Central Bank of Peru reducing its rate by 25 basis points, citing a decrease in inflation pressures [4] - The Central Bank of Turkey announced a significant cut of 250 basis points, lowering its rate to 40.5%, which exceeded market expectations [5] - The adjustments in monetary policy by various central banks are influenced by the Federal Reserve's actions, but each country's economic conditions will dictate their specific policy paths [5]

Core Viewpoint - S&P expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, bringing the rate to between 4% and 4.25%, with another cut anticipated in the fourth quarter [1] Group 1 - The Canadian central bank is also expected to lower rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with at least one more cut likely this year [1]

Group 1: Central Bank Decisions - The focus of the global financial market this week is on the first interest rate cut in the U.S. since Trump's return to the presidency, with major central banks adjusting borrowing costs or signaling policy directions [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, influenced by market expectations and pressure from the White House, despite concerns over inflation risks from tariffs [2] - Other central banks, such as those in Canada and Norway, are also anticipated to implement similar rate cuts, while the Bank of England is expected to maintain its current rate [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales are projected to grow by 0.3% month-on-month, indicating resilience despite a weakening labor market and rising prices [4] - In Canada, inflation is expected to slightly rise to 2% in August, with the central bank likely to cut rates to 2.5% due to a sluggish job market and economic contraction [4] - Japan's inflation data and trade balance will be closely monitored, with expectations that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current policy stance [5][6] Group 3: Regional Developments - In the UK, inflation is expected to remain at 3.8%, with the Bank of England likely to keep its base rate at 4% [7] - Norway's central bank faces a tough decision, with predictions of a potential 25 basis point cut, but high core inflation may delay this action [8] - The European Central Bank will hold a two-day meeting, with key economic data releases from Germany and the Eurozone expected [9]