证券研究报告 成都银行 (601838 CH) 非息扰动无碍长期韧性 华泰研究 季报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(人民币): 23.25 沈娟 研究员 SAC No. S0570514040002 SFC No. BPN843 贺雅亭 研究员 heyating@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 蒲葭依 研究员 SAC No. S0570525090001 SFC No. BVL774 李润凌* 联系人 SAC No. S0570123090022 lirunling@htsc.com 基本数据 | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 10 月 28 日) | 18.11 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 76,758 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 478.81 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 15.36-20.88 | 股价走势图 (10) 1 13 24 35 Oct-24 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 (%) 成都银行 沪深300 资料来源：Wind 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (人民币) | 2024 | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Chengdu Bank (601838.SH) with a current price of 18.11 CNY [1]. Core Views - Chengdu Bank's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 17.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.5 billion CNY, up 5% year-on-year [2]. - The bank's return on average equity (ROAE) stands at 15.2%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.4 percentage points [2]. - The bank's performance shows resilience in profit growth despite a slowdown in revenue and profit growth rates compared to the first half of the year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Chengdu Bank's revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025 were 3%, 2.4%, and 5% respectively, indicating a decline in growth rates compared to the first half of the year [3]. - Net interest income and non-interest income growth rates were 8.2% and -16.5% respectively, with non-interest income showing a significant negative growth [3]. Asset and Loan Growth - As of the end of Q3 2025, Chengdu Bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 13.9% and 17.4% year-on-year, indicating a steady expansion in scale [4]. - The bank's corporate loans showed strong growth, while retail loans faced pressure, with corporate loans growing at 19% year-on-year [4]. Liability and Deposit Trends - The growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities and deposits was 11.4% and 12.6% respectively, showing a slight slowdown compared to the previous quarter [5]. - The trend towards more fixed-term deposits continues, with a significant increase in the proportion of fixed-term deposits [5]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income for the first three quarters was 3.04 billion CNY, down 16.5% year-on-year, with a notable decline in net fee and commission income [6]. - The bank's other non-interest income also decreased by 13% year-on-year, affected by fluctuations in the bond market [7]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - Chengdu Bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 0.68% at the end of Q3 2025, indicating stable asset quality [7]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio remains high at 433.1%, reflecting strong risk absorption capacity [8]. Capital Adequacy - As of the end of Q3 2025, the bank's core tier 1 capital ratio, tier 1 capital ratio, and total capital ratio were 8.77%, 10.52%, and 14.39% respectively, showing an increase from the previous quarter [8]. - The issuance of 11 billion CNY in perpetual bonds has effectively supplemented the bank's capital [8]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Chengdu Bank is expected to benefit from strategic opportunities in the Chengdu metropolitan area, with EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 at 3.16, 3.27, and 3.35 CNY respectively [9]. - The current stock price corresponds to PB valuations of 0.86, 0.77, and 0.70 for 2025-2027, and PE valuations of 5.73, 5.53, and 5.41 [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has experienced a slowdown in growth, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 3.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.03%, while the third quarter saw a decline of 4.41% due to a drop in non-interest income [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.526 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.85%, with a 6.22% increase in the third quarter, primarily due to improved asset quality and reduced asset impairment losses, which decreased by 18% year-on-year [1] - The net interest margin widened to 1.49%, with net interest income growing by 6.1% year-on-year, benefiting from improved deposit cost management [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total assets at the end of the period were 230.3 billion yuan, a 4.4% increase from the beginning of the year, with total loans amounting to 133.5 billion yuan, up 2.0% year-on-year [2] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.98%, with a provision coverage ratio of 197%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous quarter [2] Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.034 billion yuan, 2.198 billion yuan, and 2.444 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 5.8%, 8.1%, and 11.2% [3][4] - The price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.52x, 0.48x, and 0.44x, indicating a favorable valuation [3][4] Market Position and Strategy - The company primarily serves small and micro enterprises, facing intense competition and weak credit demand, which may pressure short-term operations [3] - However, the solid customer base and regional advantages suggest good growth potential in the medium to long term as the small loan market improves with economic recovery [3]

Core Insights - Ping An Bank reported a revenue of 100.67 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% due to lower loan rates and business restructuring [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 38.34 billion yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year [2] - The bank's non-interest income declined due to market fluctuations affecting bond investments [2] Financial Performance - The net interest margin for the first nine months was 1.79%, a decrease of 14 basis points compared to the same period last year [2] - Credit and other asset impairment losses were 25.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year [2] - As of September 30, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 1.05%, a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the end of the previous year [3] Asset Quality - The total amount of loans and advances was 3.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [3] - The balance of non-performing loans was 35.89 billion yuan, an increase of 153 million yuan from the end of the previous year [3] - The bank's provision coverage ratio decreased from 250.71% at the beginning of the year to 229.60%, a decline of 21.11 percentage points [6] Risk Management - The bank actively managed asset quality by increasing the recovery of non-performing assets, with 32.89 billion yuan written off and 26.02 billion yuan recovered in the first nine months [3] - The balance of credit risk related to real estate was 266.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.10 billion yuan from the end of the previous year [4] - The bank's management emphasized maintaining a good risk coverage level and safeguarding asset quality [7] Capital Adequacy - As of September 30, the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 9.52%, the Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 11.06%, and the total capital adequacy ratio was 13.48%, all showing improvement from the end of the previous year [6] - The bank's provisioning ratio was 2.41%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points from the beginning of the year [6] Market Outlook - The management noted that the macroeconomic environment is generally stable, with improved repayment capabilities among small and medium-sized enterprises and individuals [3] - The bank's strategic focus on capital management, cost control, and asset quality is crucial for navigating short-term performance fluctuations [7] - The future performance of the bank will depend on the recovery of the macroeconomic environment and the resolution of risks in the real estate market [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Bank is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The bank's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 10.40% and 10.42% year-on-year, respectively, with significant quarterly growth of 17.38% in revenue and 20.54% in net profit [1] - The bank's net interest income increased by 15.2% year-on-year, benefiting from accelerated asset expansion and improved net interest margin [2] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.14%, down 11 basis points from the beginning of the year [2] - The bank's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 53.9 billion, 57.3 billion, and 62.9 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, 6.4%, and 9.8% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Chongqing Bank achieved a total revenue of 117.4 billion yuan and a net profit of 48.8 billion yuan, both showing a year-on-year increase of over 10% [1] - The total assets reached 1.02 trillion yuan, with loans and deposits growing by 19.4% and 16.9% year-to-date, respectively [1] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.14%, indicating a positive trend in asset quality [2] - The provision coverage ratio stood at 248.1%, remaining stable compared to previous periods [2] Profitability and Valuation - The annualized net interest margin for the first three quarters was 1.32%, showing a slight improvement from the previous half [2] - The bank's price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.53x, 0.49x, and 0.46x, respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ping An Bank is actively enhancing its risk management policies and asset quality, demonstrating a stable overall performance in its financial health [2] Group 1: Risk Management - The bank is strengthening its forward-looking risk policy assessments and agile adjustments to manage risks effectively [2] - There is a focus on early warning and resolution of risks associated with existing assets [2] Group 2: Asset Quality - As of June 30, 2025, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is 1.05%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the end of the previous year [2] - The NPL generation rate for the first half of the year is 1.64%, down by 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The provision coverage ratio stands at 238.48%, indicating strong risk compensation capabilities [2] Group 3: Retail Loan Structure - The bank is continuously optimizing the structure of its retail loan assets, leading to a corresponding reduction in impairment provisions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing Bank has faced significant challenges in the current low-interest-rate environment, resulting in a substantial decline in its stock price and market capitalization, with a 22% drop over nearly 52 trading days and a loss of over 34 billion yuan in market value [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Beijing Bank reported operating income of 36.218 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.02%, and a net profit of 15.053 billion yuan, up 1.12% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in growth [1] - In contrast, Jiangsu Bank, now the leading city commercial bank, achieved revenue and net profit growth of 7.78% and 8.05% respectively during the same period, widening the performance gap [1][2] - Beijing Bank's revenue growth has been outpaced by its rising business and management expenses, which reached 9.441 billion yuan, a 3.62% increase, further eroding net profit [2] Interest Margin and Asset Quality - The net interest margin for Beijing Bank decreased from 1.47% at the end of 2024 to 1.31% by mid-2025, continuing a downward trend since 2018 [4] - As of the second quarter of 2025, the average net interest margin for city commercial banks was 1.37%, placing Beijing Bank below this average and ranking it seventh from the bottom among 30 listed city commercial banks [6] - The bank's non-interest income ratio was 28.63%, significantly lower than peers like Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank, which exceeded 30% [8] Capital Adequacy and Risk Management - By the end of the second quarter of 2025, Beijing Bank's provision coverage ratio fell to 195.74%, down from 208.75% at the end of 2024, indicating weakened risk resilience [9] - The core tier one capital adequacy ratio decreased from 8.95% at the end of 2024 to 8.59%, ranking sixth from the bottom among its peers [10] - The bank's capital quality is declining despite an increase in capital scale, which may limit its business expansion capabilities [10] Management Changes and Legal Issues - In 2025, Beijing Bank experienced significant personnel changes, including the appointment of a new president and several board members, amidst ongoing challenges [11] - The bank is also facing legal repercussions related to the "Kangde Xin financial fraud case," which has negatively impacted its reputation and operations [11]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 40.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.9% [1] - Net profit from continuing operations reached 5.5 billion yuan, up 19.7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 6.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.7% increase [1] - The annualized ROE was 21.1% and ROA was 1.1% for the first half of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - Total assets at the end of Q2 2025 amounted to 1.01 trillion yuan, a 2.7% increase from the beginning of the year, but a 4.2% decrease year-on-year [1] - The non-performing asset management segment saw a 2.7% increase in total assets compared to the beginning of the year, while the asset management and investment segment's total assets grew by 1.6% [1] Segment Performance - The non-performing asset management segment's revenue increased by 58.3% year-on-year, primarily due to approximately 21.3 billion yuan in income from investments in China Bank and Everbright Bank [2] - Revenue from the asset management and investment segment decreased by 85.1%, with its share of income before group offset dropping to 5.6% [2] - Within the non-performing asset segment, income from acquisition and disposal business and acquisition and restructuring business declined, while income from rescue and revitalization business and equity business increased year-on-year [2] Credit Costs and Risk Management - The credit cost rate for the first half of 2025 was 15.3%, significantly up year-on-year, primarily due to increased credit impairment on debt instruments measured at amortized cost [2] - The overall provision coverage ratio for debt instruments measured at amortized cost and those measured at fair value, with changes included in other comprehensive income, was 270% as of June 2025, an increase of 44 percentage points from the beginning of the year [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to ordinary shareholders of 10.4 billion yuan, 10.9 billion yuan, and 11.0 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.5%, 4.1%, and 1.1% respectively [3] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.13 yuan, 0.14 yuan, and 0.14 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 7.6, 7.3, and 7.3 times, and PB ratios of 1.70, 1.38, and 1.16 times [3] - The reasonable stock price range is estimated to be between 1.16 and 1.28 HKD, indicating a premium of 6% to 17% compared to the closing price on September 12 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities initiates coverage on CITIC Financial Assets (02799) with a "Neutral" rating, projecting net profit for ordinary shareholders to reach 10.4 billion, 10.9 billion, and 11.0 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 8.5%, 4.1%, and 1.1% respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.13, 0.14, and 0.14 yuan, and PE ratios of 7.6, 7.3, and 7.3 times, while PB ratios are 1.70, 1.38, and 1.16 times, suggesting a reasonable stock price range of 1.16-1.28 HKD [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, CITIC Financial Assets achieved operating revenue (including performance from joint ventures and associates) of 40.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, and net profit from continuing operations of 5.5 billion yuan, up 19.7%, with net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders reaching 6.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.7% increase, while annualized ROE stood at 21.1% and ROA at 1.1% [1] Asset Growth - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total assets of the company amounted to 1.01 trillion yuan, marking a 2.7% increase from the beginning of the year but a 4.2% decrease year-on-year. The total assets in the non-performing asset management segment grew by 2.7% compared to the beginning of the year, while the asset management and investment segment saw a 1.6% increase [2] Segment Performance - The non-performing asset management segment reported a revenue increase of 58.3% year-on-year, primarily due to approximately 21.3 billion yuan in income from investments in China Bank and Everbright Bank. Conversely, the asset management and investment segment experienced an 85.1% decline in revenue, with its share of income before group offsets dropping to 5.6% [3] Credit Cost and Risk Management - The credit cost rate for the first half of the year was 15.3%, significantly up year-on-year, attributed to increased credit impairment on debt instruments measured at amortized cost. The substantial provisioning has enhanced the company's risk resilience, with the overall provision coverage ratio for debt instruments measured at amortized cost and those measured at fair value, with changes recorded in other comprehensive income, reaching 270% by the end of June 2025, an increase of 44 percentage points from the beginning of the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The overall non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of listed banks in China remains at an excellent level in the first half of 2025, with most banks showing stable or improved asset quality, while some retail loan segments are experiencing increased pressure on asset quality [1][7]. Group 1: Non-Performing Loan Ratios - Among A-share listed banks, 20 banks reported a decrease in NPL ratios, with declines ranging from 0.01 to 0.12 percentage points, while 15 banks maintained stable NPL ratios [2]. - Sixteen listed banks have NPL ratios below 1%, with Chengdu Bank reporting the lowest at 0.66% [2]. - Xi'an Bank achieved the largest reduction in NPL ratio, decreasing by 0.12 percentage points to 1.6% by the end of June [2][3]. Group 2: Risk Management Trends - The risk management trends highlighted by bank executives include the ongoing clearance of risks in real estate and local government financing platforms, while retail sectors like personal loans are under pressure [1][4]. - Agricultural Bank of China reported a 0.05 percentage point decrease in the NPL ratio for real estate loans by the end of June [4]. - The overall NPL ratio for state-owned banks averaged 1.21%, outperforming the industry average by 0.28 percentage points [3]. Group 3: Retail Loan Quality Concerns - Several banks, including Huaxia Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, have seen increases in personal loan NPL ratios compared to the beginning of the year [7]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China noted that retail loan asset quality is generally declining due to market conditions, but expects improvements as economic policies take effect [7][8]. - Credit card transactions and personal loans are facing significant challenges due to consumption downgrades and adjustments in the real estate market, as stated by China Merchants Bank [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts from Huatai Securities believe that the asset quality of corporate loans is improving, particularly in the real estate sector, with expectations for continued improvement in the second half of the year [6]. - Despite the overall stability in NPL ratios, there are concerns about the underlying asset quality, particularly in retail loans, which may face pressure from the actual economic conditions [8].