Core Points - The U.S. government is on the brink of a shutdown due to failed negotiations between the two parties regarding funding, causing market anxiety and pushing gold prices above $3,800 per ounce [1][2] - The existing federal funding will run out on Wednesday, leading to potential furloughs for hundreds of thousands of federal employees and disruptions in public services if no agreement is reached [2][4] - The political deadlock is exacerbated by strong partisan positions, with both parties blaming each other for the impasse [5][6] Funding Negotiations - Key discussions involving President Trump and congressional leaders failed to yield any agreement, with Republicans proposing a "Continuing Resolution" to extend current funding levels until November 21, which Democrats rejected unless it included healthcare subsidy extensions [5][6] - The Republican majority in the Senate (53 to 47) requires at least 60 votes to pass any funding bill, necessitating support from at least seven Democratic senators [6] Market Reactions - The political uncertainty and a weakening dollar have driven gold prices to surge, with a notable increase to $3,871 per ounce before settling around $3,800 [2][8] - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 45%, influenced by high government debt, persistent inflation, and doubts about the dollar's status as the primary reserve currency [9] Investment Trends - Institutional and central bank buying has contributed to the rise in gold prices, with significant inflows into gold ETFs and record net long positions by speculative investors [10] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) among hedge funds, alongside central banks increasing their gold reserves as a hedge against dollar risks [10]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.3%, closing at 6,699 points, nearing recent historical highs, indicating a positive overall performance in the stock market this quarter [1][8] - Gold prices continue to rise due to uncertainties surrounding a potential U.S. government shutdown and interest rate cut expectations, recently reaching a new high of $3,870 per ounce [9] Economic Indicators - The JOLTS job openings data for August is set to be released, with economists expecting it to remain stable at 7.185 million, compared to 7.181 million in July [5] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is crucial, as stronger-than-expected results could lead to a short covering of dollar shorts and reduce aggressive rate cut bets [7] Central Bank Policies - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 3.60%, with market expectations for a potential rate cut of 25 basis points early next year [4] - The RBA's cautious stance is influenced by high inflation rates and strong economic growth, limiting its ability to ease monetary policy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has retreated from a high of approximately 1.1750, reflecting new selling pressure on the dollar due to potential government shutdown risks, with market focus shifting to upcoming U.S. labor market data and business activity indicators [1][5]. Technical Overview - The Euro/USD is attempting to break through the flat 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), with technical indicators slightly rising near the midline. However, prices remain significantly above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating a long-term upward risk [4]. - In the short term, the Euro/USD is generally neutral to slightly bullish, facing selling pressure near the 100-day SMA while the 200-day SMA (around 1.1690) provides intraday support. The pair is trading above the 20-day SMA, which is trending downward and about to cross with long-term averages [4]. - Support levels are identified at 1.1690, 1.1650, and 1.1615, while resistance levels are at 1.1750, 1.1795, and 1.1830 [4]. Fundamental Overview - Recent economic data includes a 0.2% month-over-month decline in Eurozone Producer Prices, contrasting with a previous increase of 0.5% [4]. - The U.S. faces a potential government shutdown due to a budget impasse, which could delay or suspend the release of critical economic data, including the non-farm payroll report scheduled for Friday [5]. - Upcoming releases include inflation data for Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the U.S. pending home sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index for September [6].

Group 1 - The probability of a U.S. federal government shutdown has risen to approximately 70%, with increasing skepticism among investors regarding Congress's ability to reach an agreement to fund government operations [1] - The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) announced that if a government shutdown occurs, it will not release the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report this Friday, which is a crucial indicator for the Federal Reserve ahead of its October meeting [1] - The DOL's emergency plan indicates that if the government shuts down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will cease operations, delaying or canceling all scheduled economic data releases, including the weekly initial jobless claims report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1][2] Group 2 - The current impasse in Congress stems from disagreements over healthcare policy in the appropriations bill, with Democrats insisting that any bill to avoid a shutdown must include extensions for the Affordable Care Act tax subsidies, while Republicans prefer to discuss these issues after passing a short-term funding bill [2] - President Trump met with key congressional leaders to discuss potential solutions to avoid a government shutdown, noting that at least seven Democratic senators would need to support the Republican version of a temporary funding bill [2] - The Trump administration has instructed federal agencies to prepare for large-scale permanent layoffs if Congress fails to reach an agreement, indicating that this shutdown could have more profound social and economic impacts compared to previous temporary furloughs of federal employees [2]

Core Insights - The potential government shutdown in the U.S. poses "invisible risks" to economic growth, key economic data, and specific financial instruments, although it does not present a systemic risk of default as seen in 2013 [1][2][8] Economic Impact - A comprehensive government shutdown could lead to 800,000 federal employees being furloughed, resulting in a weekly reduction of approximately 0.2 percentage points in annualized real GDP growth [1][5] - The previous shutdown in 2013 resulted in a $8 billion decline in annualized federal consumption expenditure, which ultimately reduced the fourth-quarter GDP growth by 30 basis points (0.3%) [5] - Even without a shutdown, federal government spending has already been a drag on GDP growth, contributing to an average reduction of about 40 basis points for the first half of 2025 [7] Data Release Delays - The shutdown would delay the release of critical economic data such as employment reports and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as employees from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may be furloughed [3][4] - Historical data from the 2013 shutdown indicates that the release of employment and CPI data was significantly delayed, leading to a chaotic data release schedule [3][4] Financial Instruments Impact - The delay in CPI data will have specific implications for financial instruments such as Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and inflation swaps, affecting their valuation and cash flows [9][11] - TIPS payments will be calculated using a backup index based on the most recent annualized inflation rate if the September CPI report is not released on time [11] - Inflation swaps will follow a different protocol, using actual data if released within five business days of the payment date; otherwise, a backup calculation will be employed [11]

Core Points - The meeting between President Trump and the four congressional leaders is crucial for budget negotiations as the government funding deadline approaches on September 30 [2][4] - The healthcare policy has become a central issue causing a stalemate between the two parties, with Trump insisting that Democrats must abandon their demands related to healthcare subsidies [5][6] - The threat of a government shutdown poses uncertainty for financial markets and economic activities, potentially affecting consumer spending and economic confidence [7][8] Group 1: Meeting Details - President Trump will meet with Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune on September 29 [2][3] - This meeting is the first formal negotiation between Trump and Democratic leaders before the funding deadline [2][4] - The urgency of the meeting highlights the critical nature of budget negotiations as the deadline approaches [3] Group 2: Political Stalemate - Democrats are determined to avoid a government shutdown and address the Republican healthcare crisis, emphasizing the urgency of reaching a bipartisan spending agreement [5] - Republican leaders maintain that the short-term funding bill should not include additional policy provisions, further complicating negotiations [6] Group 3: Economic Implications - A government shutdown could lead to unpaid leave for hundreds of thousands of federal employees and the closure of non-essential services, impacting economic data releases [8] - Trump's prediction of a high likelihood of a government shutdown has heightened market concerns regarding the political deadlock in Washington [8]

狼可能真要来了。一些迹象显示，如果民主党不对共和党的威胁让步，美国联邦政府将近七年来首次关门的危险就将成真。 距离10月1日这个政府运转资金到期日仅剩四天时间，两党还在医疗保健议题上僵持不下，谈判陷入僵局。美国总统特朗普取消了与民主党领袖的预定会面， 进一步加剧了关门风险。 美东时间26日周五，特朗普直接离开首都华盛顿，本周末大部分时间都花在高尔夫球赛事上，没有参与调解两党矛盾的迹象。他当天放出放任政府关门的狠 话，将责任完全推给民主党。评论认为，特朗普的表态反映，共和党领导层相信，能在和民主党的关门博弈中占上风。 参议院共和党领袖John Thune周五坚持民主党必须"收回"医疗保健要求，包括延长即将到期的奥巴马执政时所出台医保补贴。众议院甚至要到10月1日——政 府关门开始日——才恢复会期。 若联邦政府关门，数十万联邦雇员将面临无薪休假，国家公园等"非必要"服务将关闭，非农就业报告等关键经济数据可能推迟发布。特朗普政府最近还发出了 政府关门期间进行大规模永久性裁员的史无前例威胁。 特朗普离开华盛顿 推卸关门责任 两党领袖各执己见 谈判大门紧闭 参议院共和党的领袖Thune表示，民主党必须"收回"他们的要求 ...

Core Points - The risk of a government shutdown in the U.S. is increasing as negotiations between Democrats and Republicans remain stalled over healthcare issues, with President Trump refusing to compromise [1][2][3] - Trump has left Washington to attend a golf tournament, further indicating a lack of urgency in resolving the budget impasse [2][3] - Republican leaders express confidence in their position during the shutdown negotiations, believing Democrats will ultimately concede [3][4] Summary by Sections Government Shutdown Risk - The U.S. federal government faces a potential shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years if Democrats do not yield to Republican demands [1] - The deadline for government funding is approaching on October 1, with both parties unable to reach an agreement [1][5] Political Dynamics - Trump has canceled a scheduled meeting with Democratic leaders, exacerbating the political standoff [3] - Senate Republican leader John Thune insists that Democrats must retract their healthcare demands, including the extension of Obama-era subsidies [4] Congressional Actions - The House of Representatives plans to reconvene only on October 1, the day the government is set to shut down, indicating a lack of urgency [5] - Key economic data releases, such as the non-farm payroll report, may be delayed if the government shuts down [6] Economic Implications - An estimated 850,000 non-essential federal employees could face unpaid leave, and numerous national parks and museums would close [6] - The Trump administration has issued unprecedented threats of large-scale permanent layoffs during a shutdown, causing panic among federal employees [7]

狼可能真要来了。一些迹象显示，如果民主党不对共和党的威胁让步，美国联邦政府将近七年来首次关 门的危险就将成真。 距离10月1日这个政府运转资金到期日仅剩四天时间，两党还在医疗保健议题上僵持不下，谈判陷入僵 局。美国总统特朗普取消了与民主党领袖的预定会面，进一步加剧了关门风险。 美东时间26日周五，特朗普直接离开首都华盛顿，本周末大部分时间都花在高尔夫球赛事上，没有参与 调解两党矛盾的迹象。他当天放出放任政府关门的狠话，将责任完全推给民主党。评论认为，特朗普的 表态反映，共和党领导层相信，能在和民主党的关门博弈中占上风。 参议院共和党领袖John Thune周五坚持民主党必须"收回"医疗保健要求，包括延长即将到期的奥巴马执 政时所出台医保补贴。众议院甚至要到10月1日——政府关门开始日——才恢复会期。 若联邦政府关门，数十万联邦雇员将面临无薪休假，国家公园等"非必要"服务将关闭，非农就业报告等 关键经济数据可能推迟发布。特朗普政府最近还发出了政府关门期间进行大规模永久性裁员的史无前例 威胁。 特朗普离开华盛顿 推卸关门责任 本周五，有媒体评论称，随着时间推移，联邦政府停摆似乎已经成为必然，而非只是可能发生的事。 ...

Core Points - The White House has instructed federal agencies to prepare for permanent layoffs during a government shutdown, marking a more aggressive strategy than previous temporary furloughs, increasing pressure on bipartisan negotiations [1][2] - The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has issued a memo requiring agencies to develop layoff plans for projects that lack funding and do not align with presidential priorities, indicating that any cuts after the funding deadline will be permanent [2] - The budget impasse stems from fundamental disagreements between the two parties regarding spending priorities, with Republicans proposing a seven-week extension of current funding levels, while Democrats demand the extension of enhanced subsidies under the Affordable Care Act and the restoration of frozen federal funds [3] Group 1 - The White House's threat of permanent layoffs is seen as a tactic to pressure Democrats amid a looming government shutdown [1] - The OMB memo specifies that layoffs will be permanent if Congress does not pass a short-term spending bill by September 30 [2] - The ongoing budget standoff has led to the cancellation of meetings between President Trump and Democratic leaders, further complicating negotiations [3] Group 2 - Democrats have responded strongly to the White House's layoff threat, questioning its legality and labeling it as an intimidation tactic [4] - House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries criticized the OMB's directive, suggesting it violates federal spending laws and warning that Democrats will not be intimidated [5] - Former OMB official Bobby Kogan criticized the directive as harmful to the nation, arguing it would unnecessarily lead to a loss of talent and expertise [5]