IT之家 2 月 1 日消息，比特币价格跌至自去年关税冲击以来的最低水平，其作为"数字黄金"的声誉正逐 渐瓦解。 周六比特币大幅下挫，跌破 80000 美元关口，创下 2025 年 4 月以来的最低水平，自今年年初以来已下 跌近 13%。 IT之家注意到，比特币连续数周遭遇宏观层面的利空影响。此前一系列原本会支撑该资产价格的市场动 态，如今均未能对其形成提振。1 月大部分时间里美元走弱，原因是投资者对特朗普政府政策风险的担 忧持续升温，但这一走势几乎未能改善加密市场的市场情绪。 与此同时，在黄金价格飙涨刷新历史高点期间，比特币并未出现有意义的反弹；即便上周五黄金、白银 价格大幅反转，比特币也未能吸引资金流入。美国加密行业新市场结构监管规则的推迟落地，同样削弱 了市场对数字资产的投资意愿。 投资机构 Navellier & Associates 的路易斯・纳维利尔表示："白银和黄金已成为担忧法定货币的投资者 的避险载体。" 加密货币支持者长期以来一直将比特币标榜为"数字黄金"，即贵金属的虚拟形态，并称这款加密货币是 市场动荡时期的避险资产。但全球市场研究机构 Marex Solutions 高级全球市场策略师伊 ...

（来源：吴说） Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 在采访中表示，在未来 20 年内，比特币价格有望达到约 650 万美元。 他指出，当前加密市场正处于熊市底部后期阶段，短期内比特币或在 7.5 万至 10 万美元区间震荡，但 并不改变其长期看涨判断。他认为，比特币在 2025 年避免更大跌幅，主要得益于企业与 ETF 的持续买 入；同时，黄金上涨反映了市场对法币贬值与资产没收风险的担忧，这一趋势长期将利好比特币。 他透露，部分央行已开始就比特币进行初步研究，但真正配置仍需 10–20 年。其长期价格预测基于全球 债务扩张、货币超发与比特币数字黄金属性，而非短期采用率变化，并认为 2026 年整体基本面依然向 好。（CoinDesk） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in cryptocurrency prices, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, raises questions about the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" and highlights the increasing risks associated with high leverage and lack of regulation in the crypto market [2][3][4]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price dropped to a low of $81,000, with a maximum decline of over 7% within 24 hours, while Ethereum fell from $2,970 to $2,670, marking a 10% drop [2][3]. - The total liquidation amount in the past 24 hours exceeded $1.7 billion, affecting over 270,000 traders globally [4]. Influencing Factors - The decline in cryptocurrency prices is attributed to tightening liquidity, increasing regulatory scrutiny, institutional exits, and panic among investors [3][4]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly statements from Iranian officials regarding U.S. actions, have contributed to market volatility [4]. Investment Trends - Major investors are reallocating their portfolios, with Jefferies' Christopher Wood removing Bitcoin from his long-term investment strategy, reallocating half to physical gold and the other half to gold mining stocks [5]. - Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant net outflows, exceeding $2 billion, while traditional stock ETFs are experiencing record inflows [6]. Mining and Network Performance - Bitcoin's network has seen a decline in hash rate, dropping over 15% from its historical peak, leading to many miners facing shutdown conditions due to high operational costs [6]. - The average daily block reward income for Bitcoin miners is projected to reach a historical low of $38,700 per EH/s by December 2025 [6]. Comparison with Gold - The price of gold has reached historical highs, contrasting sharply with Bitcoin's performance, which has retreated approximately 33% from its previous highs [7]. - The divergence in performance between Bitcoin and gold reflects their differing roles as assets, with gold serving as a stable reserve asset and Bitcoin being more speculative and influenced by market sentiment [8].

1月30日，在全球金融市场波动加剧的当下，加密货币领域的风险保障机制正迎来里程碑式的变革。 NCE外汇表示，币安近期宣布将其价值10亿美元的用户安全资产基金（SAFU）持仓从稳定币全面转换 为比特币。这一举措标志着行业领军者正试图通过持有更具去中心化属性的底层资产，来对抗传统法币 体系带来的潜在流动性风险，同时也为数字资产在极端风险环境下的防御能力提供了新的注脚。 此次10亿美元规模的资产重组是数字货币行业迈向长效建设的关键步骤。通过将应急基金与全球最具流 动性的加密资产绑定，行业安全标准正被重新定义。NCE外汇预测，随着机构投资者对比特币储备价值 的认可度不断提升，这种将核心保障金"去中心化"的趋势可能会在2026年被更多金融科技平台效仿，从 而进一步夯实投资者对于参与数字资产交易的安全信心。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 为了确保风险对冲的有效性，币安建立了一套严谨的补足机制。相关事实数据表示，若由于市场剧烈回 撤导致该基金估值低于8亿美元，平台将迅速调动资源补齐至10亿美元的原始规模。NCE外汇观察到， 在过去的一年中，该平台管理的用户资产总额已攀升至1630亿美元，这种大规模资产的底层背书从 ...

FxPro首席市场分析师Alex Kuptsikevich表示："加密货币如今已不再被视作法定货币的替代选择，也无 法对冲主要经济体不够稳健的财政政策风险。" 周五亚洲早盘交易时段，比特币一度跌至两个月以来的最低点。当前这一全球最大加密货币的市场情绪 持续低迷，投资者也纷纷从其交易所交易基金(ETF)中撤资。 周五，比特币价格一度大跌3.9%，触及81102美元，创11月21日以来新低，延续了隔夜加速下跌的走 势。目前其价格较去年10月6日创下的历史高点已回落超34%。据CoinGlass数据显示，过去24小时内， 全市场加密货币的多头头寸爆仓金额累计超15亿美元。 美国上市的12只比特币现货ETF已连续三个月出现资金净流出，若这一趋势持续至1月末，将创下这类 产品2024年推出以来，资金持续外流的最长周期。汇编数据显示，在此期间，这类基金的资金流出规模 累计约48亿美元。 比特币的颓势与近期黄金等贵金属的大涨形成鲜明对比：面对地缘政治的不确定性，避险资金纷纷远离 加密货币，转而涌入传统避险资产，这也让比特币被称作"数字黄金"的说法备受质疑。 在部分交易员看来，比特币此次下跌还只是开端，若看空情绪持续至周末， ...

比特币周五亚洲早盘跌至两个月新低，加密货币市场情绪持续降温，投资者从比特币ETF中撤出资金。 比特币周五在新加坡一度下跌3.9%，至81，102美元，创11月21日以来最低水平，延续隔夜加速的跌 势。比特币已较去年10月6日触及的历史高点回落逾34%。 FxPro首席市场分析师Alex Kuptsikevich表示："突然之间，加密货币似乎不再是法定货币的替代选择， 也不再被看作对冲主要经济体金融政策风险的工具。" 责任编辑：于健 SF069 比特币周五亚洲早盘跌至两个月新低，加密货币市场情绪持续降温，投资者从比特币ETF中撤出资金。 比特币周五在新加坡一度下跌3.9%，至81，102美元，创11月21日以来最低水平，延续隔夜加速的跌 势。比特币已较去年10月6日触及的历史高点回落逾34%。 数据显示，12只在美国上市的比特币ETF连续三个月出现净赎回，净流出规模约48亿美元。若这一趋势 持续到1月底，将创下比特币ETF自2024年上市以来资金持续净流出最长的一次。 比特币的疲软表现与近期黄金等贵金属的飙升形成鲜明对比。面对地缘政治等风险因素，投资者青睐传 统的避险资产，这也令比特币可以充当某种"数字黄金"的 ...

（来源：吴说） Wintermute 指出，比特币已在 85,000–94,000 美元区间横盘约 60 天，上周出现创纪录的比特币与以太坊 ETF 净流出，叠加 Coinbase 溢价转负，显示美国资金成为主要卖压来源。尽管黄金、白银在"货币贬值 交易"中创下新高，但 BTC 的"数字黄金"叙事尚未兑现。当前隐含波动率被显著压缩，市场参与度偏 低。短期关键观察包括 FOMC 表态、Mag7 财报、关税进展与美元走势。在 ETF 资金回流或美元走弱 前，BTC 预计仍将受制于区间震荡，85,000 美元为关键支撑位。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, with a notable drop following President Trump's announcement of potential tariffs on European countries, reflecting increased distrust in the cryptocurrency market [2][7]. Group 1: Bitcoin Price Movements - Bitcoin reached a peak price of approximately $97,500 in mid-January, but subsequently fell sharply, nearly negating its early-year gains [2][5]. - Following Trump's tariff announcement on January 16, Bitcoin's price began to decline, dropping to around $87,000 by January 22, which is below the expected price for the end of 2025 [7]. - The price drop was attributed to a decrease in risk appetite among investors, paralleling declines in the stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 870 points [7]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trust Issues - The perception of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is weakening, as indicated by analysts, amidst growing distrust in the cryptocurrency market [7]. - The stablecoin "USDe" experienced a significant drop in value, leading to forced liquidations for investors using it as collateral, further eroding trust in the market [7]. - A hacker incident in early November also contributed to a bleak outlook for the cryptocurrency market, with significant outflows from Bitcoin-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [8]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments and Future Outlook - The U.S. Congress has initiated discussions on the "Clarity Act," which could facilitate larger financial institutions' involvement in the cryptocurrency sector, potentially boosting market confidence if passed [8][9]. - The upcoming midterm elections in November may influence the Trump administration to advance policies that support the cryptocurrency industry, which could help alleviate distrust [9]. - For Bitcoin to solidify its status as "digital gold," it would need to see increased holdings by national governments, similar to the demand that supports gold prices [9][10].

量子计算对比特币的威胁正在从理论走向现实。Coinbase首席研究员发出警告，约33%的比特币供应面临量子风险，而Jefferies全球股票策略主管则已将比特 币从投资组合中完全剔除，转向黄金配置。这一变化正在重塑机构投资者对比特币的态度。 据媒体最新报道，Coinbase全球投资研究主管David Duong警告称，约32.7%的比特币供应量面临潜在的量子计算攻击风险，涉及约651万枚比特币。 Jefferies策略主管Christopher Wood也在1月16日的分析专栏中宣布，将其投资组合模型中10%的比特币头寸悉数清仓，转而配置5%实物黄金和5%黄金矿业 股。他解释称，量子计算的出现可能在未来几年而非十年以上实现突破，这会动摇比特币作为"可靠价值储存手段"的根基。 量子计算机利用先进物理学原理，其运算速度远超传统计算机，最终可能破解保护比特币钱包的加密算法。据加密货币安全研究机构Project 11的数据，近 70%的脆弱比特币来自地址重复使用，这会暴露可被量子计算机利用的安全信息。 市场已开始反映这一担忧。比特币今年以来相对黄金下跌6.5%，而黄金同期上涨55%。比特币兑黄金比率在2026年1月降 ...

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a corrective downturn after a significant recovery, with Bitcoin peaking near $98,000 before falling to $88,900, reflecting a 4.66% drop in 24 hours [1][2] - Ethereum also faced a decline, dropping 7.98% in the same period, while other cryptocurrencies like BNB and Solana saw similar downturns [2] - The primary driver of this downturn is attributed to external macroeconomic factors, including a recent escalation in the US-EU tariff conflict and a significant drop in major US stock indices [2][4] Group 2 - The recent surge in Bitcoin's price was largely influenced by an improved macroeconomic environment in the US, including a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and the initiation of a Reserve Management Plan [4] - The current market phase is characterized by a digestion of previous gains, with institutional investors adjusting their positions based on risk assessments rather than emotional trading [5][6] - Bitcoin's volatility is heightened due to its reliance on institutional capital and the constraints imposed by global liquidity conditions, making it less of a pure safe-haven asset compared to gold [6]