来源：环球网 【环球网财经综合报道】在今年金价上涨背景下，黄金主题投资吸引了外资的关注。据彭博社援引的数 据，明晟公司（MSCI Inc.）编制的全球黄金股指数今年上涨了约135%，与贵金属价格的涨势同步。该 指数有望创下相对于明晟公司编制的主要全球半导体企业指数的最大年度超额收益纪录，后者今年涨幅 为40%。 | Bloomberg | | | --- | --- | | · Live TV Markets > Economics Industries Tech Politics Businessweek Opinion More > | | | Gold: How to Invest Why Now Illegal Mining Gold-Rush Fever | | | Markets | Gold Stocks Trounce Al-Led Chip | | Rally With 135% Gain in 2025 | | 悉尼Van Eck Associates Corp. 跨资产投资策略师安娜·吴（Anna Wu）表示，"黄金和黄金矿业股是我最 看好的中期主题投资之一。黄金具有避险吸引力，而黄金矿 ...

In Gold We Trust！ 9月，黄金价格再次成为全球焦点，现货黄金接连突破关键阻力位，一举冲破3600美元/盎司，国内黄金饰品价格也跟着飙升，直逼1070元/克。这场黄金 市场的热潮，到底是短期波动，还是大时代变革的序幕？全球投资者追捧黄金，是降息周期与美元走弱下的理性选择，还是暗含着对美元信用体系的深度 不信任？别急，且听我们慢慢道来： 01 黄金十年大牛市：从预言到现实的超级周期 2024年的黄金市场表现亮眼。以美元计价，黄金全年上涨27.2%；以欧元计价，涨幅更是高达35.6%。进入2025年，这一涨势仍在延续，截至9月9日，现 货黄金从年初的2657美元/盎司一路高涨，冲破3600美元大关，累计上涨近1000美元/盎司，年内涨幅近40%，走出了极为强劲的牛市行情。尤其是最近半 个月，在美联储降息预期等因素推动下，国际金价持续上扬，不断刷新历史高位。更值得关注的是，在所有法定货币计价体系下，黄金都创下了历史新 高，这并非偶然，而是长期趋势的体现。 其实早在2020年，格隆汇研究院就前瞻性地提出"黄金十年"的论断，如今，这一预言正逐步成为现实。在多次年度策略会和中期策略会中，我们反复强 调"大多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a shift in global asset classes due to the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and rising expectations for a rate cut in September, following a significant decline in U.S. employment data [1][5]. Historical Review: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Cycles - The article categorizes past Federal Reserve rate cut cycles into three scenarios: 1. **Preventive Rate Cuts** (1995-1996, 2019): Small and gradual cuts aimed at softening potential economic slowdowns [2]. 2. **Recessionary Rate Cuts** (2001-2004, 2007-2008): Large and rapid cuts in response to economic recessions or financial crises [3]. 3. **Crisis Response Rate Cuts** (1987, 1998): Quick measures taken to stabilize market sentiment during specific risk events [4]. Asset Performance During Rate Cut Cycles - **Equities**: Rate cuts typically boost risk appetite, leading to stock market gains. For instance, after the 2019 rate cut, the S&P 500 index rose nearly 10% over the following year [5][6]. - **Bonds**: The bond market often reacts first to rate cuts, with U.S. Treasury yields generally declining. Historically, 10-year Treasury yields have dropped by an average of 80-100 basis points during rate cut cycles [7]. - **Gold**: Gold tends to perform well during rate cut cycles due to lower holding costs and increased demand for safe-haven assets. Since 1990, gold has shown an 83% success rate in the 10 trading days following rate cuts [8][9]. Market Outlook and Strategy - The article suggests that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it may lead to a narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential, potentially easing depreciation pressure on the RMB and allowing for more accommodative domestic monetary policy [7]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining diversified and flexible asset allocations to navigate market uncertainties, regardless of the rate cut outcome [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for a balanced asset allocation strategy among stocks, bonds, and gold in the context of the 2025 global capital market, which is characterized by significant differentiation and changing dynamics [1] Group 1: Stock Investment - Investors are advised to focus on Hong Kong stocks with core competitive advantages, particularly in digital infrastructure, smart city solutions, and electric vehicle charging networks [1] - Specific companies highlighted include those with a 37% year-on-year revenue growth in smart city solutions and strategic breakthroughs in electric vehicle charging networks [1] - Other notable sectors include biopharmaceutical innovation and metaverse application development, which have established differentiated competitive advantages [1] Group 2: Bond Market - The bond market is experiencing a divergence between government bonds and corporate credit bonds, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizing around 3.8% and investment-grade corporate bond spreads narrowing to 150 basis points [1] - Green bonds issued by certain companies received oversubscription due to carbon neutrality certification, while convertible bonds are favored by hedge funds due to their conversion premium advantages [1] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for bond portfolio allocation, focusing on high-rated short-duration bonds and inflation-protected securities (TIPS) [1] Group 3: Gold as an Asset - Gold is undergoing a repositioning as a traditional safe-haven asset, with physical gold ETF holdings reaching record highs, although digital currencies are increasingly seen as alternatives [1] - The current price of London gold is around $1,950 per ounce, reflecting a 12% decline from its 2024 peak [1] - Investment strategies include indirect exposure through gold mining stocks or structured products linked to gold prices to capture rebound opportunities while managing volatility risks [1] Group 4: Investment Portfolio Construction - The Morningstar Q2 2025 report suggests a "433" allocation strategy: 40% in stocks, 30% in bonds, and 30% in alternative assets, including gold ETFs and commodity funds [1] - This allocation considers the growth potential of certain growth stocks while providing yield protection through high-yield bonds and hedging tail risks with precious metal derivatives [1] - As the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction nears its end, investors are encouraged to monitor interest-sensitive assets, credit spread indices, and volatility indicators for dynamic asset allocation adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The current gold market is in a phase of short-term adjustment while maintaining long-term support, requiring investors to make cautious decisions based on multiple dimensions [1] - International gold prices have fallen from a high of $3500 per ounce in April to $3234 per ounce in May, with domestic gold jewelry prices dropping below 1000 yuan per gram [1][3] - The decline in gold prices is primarily influenced by a stronger US dollar, easing US-China trade tensions, and technical selling and profit-taking [1][4] Group 2 - Central banks continue to purchase gold, with global net purchases exceeding 300 tons in Q1 2025, and China increasing its gold reserves to 73.77 million ounces (approximately 2294.51 tons) [6][4] - The proportion of gold in China's foreign exchange reserves is only 4.3%, significantly lower than the global average of about 15%, indicating substantial future accumulation potential [6][4] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East issues, contribute to the long-term risk premium for gold [6][4] Group 3 - Short-term support for international gold prices is seen in the range of $3200-$3240 per ounce, with potential downside to $3150 if broken, while resistance is at $3250-$3300 [5][4] - The market sentiment is cautious, with speculative funds withdrawing, as evidenced by over 3 billion yuan net outflow from gold ETFs in April [6][4] - Historical trends suggest that gold often experiences a "first dip, then rise" pattern during interest rate hike cycles, indicating potential for recovery in 2025 if economic data weakens [9][4] Group 4 - Investment strategies suggest accumulating gold in the $3200-$3240 range, with a stop-loss at $3150 and a target price of $3300 [10][4] - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, combining gold with bonds and high-dividend stocks to hedge against interest rate reversal risks [10][4] - Different scenarios for gold prices are outlined, with optimistic projections suggesting prices could exceed $3500 under certain conditions, while pessimistic scenarios could see prices drop to $2500 [10][4]