Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for a balanced asset allocation strategy among stocks, bonds, and gold in the context of the 2025 global capital market, which is characterized by significant differentiation and changing dynamics [1] Group 1: Stock Investment - Investors are advised to focus on Hong Kong stocks with core competitive advantages, particularly in digital infrastructure, smart city solutions, and electric vehicle charging networks [1] - Specific companies highlighted include those with a 37% year-on-year revenue growth in smart city solutions and strategic breakthroughs in electric vehicle charging networks [1] - Other notable sectors include biopharmaceutical innovation and metaverse application development, which have established differentiated competitive advantages [1] Group 2: Bond Market - The bond market is experiencing a divergence between government bonds and corporate credit bonds, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizing around 3.8% and investment-grade corporate bond spreads narrowing to 150 basis points [1] - Green bonds issued by certain companies received oversubscription due to carbon neutrality certification, while convertible bonds are favored by hedge funds due to their conversion premium advantages [1] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for bond portfolio allocation, focusing on high-rated short-duration bonds and inflation-protected securities (TIPS) [1] Group 3: Gold as an Asset - Gold is undergoing a repositioning as a traditional safe-haven asset, with physical gold ETF holdings reaching record highs, although digital currencies are increasingly seen as alternatives [1] - The current price of London gold is around $1,950 per ounce, reflecting a 12% decline from its 2024 peak [1] - Investment strategies include indirect exposure through gold mining stocks or structured products linked to gold prices to capture rebound opportunities while managing volatility risks [1] Group 4: Investment Portfolio Construction - The Morningstar Q2 2025 report suggests a "433" allocation strategy: 40% in stocks, 30% in bonds, and 30% in alternative assets, including gold ETFs and commodity funds [1] - This allocation considers the growth potential of certain growth stocks while providing yield protection through high-yield bonds and hedging tail risks with precious metal derivatives [1] - As the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction nears its end, investors are encouraged to monitor interest-sensitive assets, credit spread indices, and volatility indicators for dynamic asset allocation adjustments [1]

当前黄金市场正处于短期调整与中长期支撑的博弈阶段，投资者需结合多重维度审慎决策。从近期市场表现看，国际金价从 4 月的 3500 美元 / 盎司高位回 落至 5 月的 3234 美元 / 盎司，国内金饰价格同步跌破 1000 元 / 克，这主要受美元走强（美元指数反弹至 99.5）、中美贸易摩擦缓和导致避险需求减弱，以 及技术性抛售和获利了结的影响。然而，中长期来看，黄金的战略配置价值依然稳固，核心逻辑未被证伪。 一、短期压力与市场情绪波动 2. 2025 年一季度全球央行净购金超 300 吨，中国连续 6 个月增持黄金储备至 7377 万盎司（约 2294.51 吨），但黄金占外汇储备比例仅 4.3%，远低于全 球平均水平（约 15%），未来增持空间显著。波兰、印度等国的持续购金行为形成价格锚定效应，野村证券指出，全球经济碎片化背景下，黄金的 "去美元化" 货币属性溢价将持续凸显。 3. 通胀黏性与滞胀风险 4. 尽管美国 4 月 CPI 同比增长 2.3% 低于预期，但消费者对未来一年通胀的预期升至 7.3%，叠加特朗普关税政策的潜在影响，通胀黏性可能超预期520。 摩根士丹利预测 2025 年美国通胀可 ...