Core Viewpoint - The recent military actions between the US and Iran have escalated tensions in the region, with significant implications for global oil prices and economic stability. Group 1: Military Actions and Responses - Over 125 US aircraft, including B-2 stealth bombers, were involved in the attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, indicating a serious military commitment from the US [1] - Iran launched a retaliatory strike using 40 missiles against multiple targets in Israel, including Ben Gurion International Airport and biological research facilities, showcasing Iran's military capabilities [3][4] - Iranian officials have condemned the US actions as a violation of international law and have threatened further military responses, including potential attacks on US military bases in the region [6][9][10] Group 2: Economic Implications - The conflict has raised concerns about the security of oil supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil transport, with about 20% of the world's oil supply passing through this route [2][15] - Brent crude oil prices have already increased by nearly 10% since the outbreak of the conflict, with expectations of further price hikes as markets reopen [2][15] - Analysts suggest that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices could surge above $130 per barrel, significantly impacting global economic growth and inflation [16] Group 3: Regional Reactions - The Houthis in Yemen have vowed to resume attacks on US vessels in the Red Sea in response to the US military actions against Iran, indicating a broader regional conflict [12][13] - The UK and Greece have advised their shipping industries to reassess routes through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz due to heightened threats, reflecting the global shipping industry's concerns [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience significant movements in the near future, with potential increases in oil prices, declines in stock markets, and rises in gold prices [1] Group 1 - The outlook for U.S. Treasury yields is uncertain, marking a notable change for long-term market observers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear facilities is expected to trigger an instinctive market reaction, leading to a rise in oil prices and an increase in risk aversion among investors as they assess the potential global economic impact of the escalating tensions [1] Group 1 - Investors anticipate that the initial market response will be panic, resulting in higher oil prices at the market opening [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the situation is expected to cast a shadow over the market, increasing volatility, particularly in the oil sector [1] - There is a belief that the U.S. citizens worldwide will face risks due to the military action, further contributing to market uncertainty [1]

据央视新闻最新消息，当地时间6月21日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上发文称，美国已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和 伊斯法罕 三处核设施 的袭击。 美国国防部长赫格塞思刚刚也转发了美国总统特朗普的相关帖文。有美国官员告诉路透社，美军B-2轰炸机参与了对伊朗核设施的袭击。 伊朗方面对此暂无回应。 6月19日，凤凰网《出海研究局》曾 邀请国际政治专栏作家、凤凰网特约撰稿人胡毓堃老师和东吴固收首席经济学家李勇老师6月19日19点一起详解"假如 美伊开战，世界经济会怎样"这一话题。 东吴证券固定收益首席分析师李勇对凤凰网《出海研究局》表示，若美国参与伊以冲突，（比如）要封锁霍尔木兹海峡，甚至美军正式参战， 那全球经 济和股市可能有10%到20的回撤。但是回撤之后，大家会觉得这对于经济的影响，（后续）可能会反弹。之后（经济）的均衡点可能没有回到之前高点， 但可能是在低点和低点之间找到一个平衡。 "从避险情绪来看，大家都说去美元化，但是美元指数还在100附近，没有出现明显崩塌。从长远来看，可能随着美国债务和通胀越来越高，全球对美国 （经济的）信心相对偏弱，但还是得看美国自身经济实力。黄金和美元都是避险资产，所以都可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Economic Advisor of India anticipates that the current rise in oil prices will have a negligible impact on inflation in the short term, indicating that India is prepared to handle global economic risks [1] Group 1 - The Indian government is confident in its ability to manage the effects of rising oil prices on the economy [1] - The assessment suggests that the inflationary pressures from oil price increases are expected to be temporary [1] - India is taking proactive measures to mitigate potential global economic risks [1]

花旗：油价若要达到每桶90美元（在当前看涨预期下，除非发生重大油运中断事件），未来数月内每天 需要有300万桶的供应中断。 ...

俄罗斯几乎没能受益于国际原油价格近期的上涨，因为俄罗斯卢布汇率上升。 随着以色列与伊朗最新一轮冲突推高国际油价，Argus Media Ltd.数据显示，俄罗斯Urals石油价格在6月 13日涨穿60美元/桶。这意味着，2025年以来，（俄罗斯石油出口销售收入）仅仅收复了10%的失地。 彭博根据俄罗斯央行官方汇率测算得出一个结论，俄罗斯石油出口行业那天（前述6月13日）每出口一 桶能收入4957卢布，相比2025年年初的水平低了大约30%。 ...

美、布两油涨幅扩大，均涨超1.5%，分别报74.64美元/桶、77.86美元/桶。 ...

欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦：欧元升值10%大致可以抵消油价可能上涨10欧元带来的通胀影响。 ...

美、布两油日内涨幅达0.5%。 ...