Core Insights - The current interest rates are only slightly restrictive and may remain stable for some time [1] - The Federal Reserve is still some distance from achieving its inflation target, and official data may not fully reflect recent changes, including the recent rise in oil prices [1] - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, with some suggesting as early as July and others indicating a wait until the fall [1] - Chairman Powell prefers to observe economic performance further before making any policy adjustments [1]

霍尔木兹海峡，持续刷屏！ 据最新消息，两艘超级油轮在霍尔木兹海峡突然掉头，驶离波斯湾入口。此外，航运巨头马士基22日表示，目 前仍在通行霍尔木兹海峡，但准备根据现有信息重新评估。 据彭博社最新报道，国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁格奥尔基耶娃23日在接受该媒体采访时警告称，随着全球 不确定性加剧，美国对伊朗发动袭击可能在能源领域以外带来更广泛影响。格奥尔基耶娃表示，当前最大的冲 击主要体现在能源价格方面，IMF正密切关注其走势，但"还可能出现二级和三级影响。比如，如果局势更加 动荡，冲击到大型经济体的增长前景，全球经济增速预期将会面临下调的连锁反应"。 在上述背景下，国际油价6月23日一度飙升超过4%，创下今年1月以来新高。截至发稿，油价涨幅有所回落， 布伦特原油涨0.61%报75.955美元/桶，WTI原油涨0.51%报74.24美元/桶。 然而，当前中东局势仍处于高度不稳定状态。当地时间23日，伊朗武装部队总参谋长穆萨维表示，由于美国公 然直接参战，侵犯了伊朗的主权，伊朗武装力量将会放手采取任何行动打击美国在中东地区的利益和美军，决 不退缩。 另据央视新闻援引伊朗迈赫尔通讯社23日报道，知情人士称，位于叙利 ...

汇丰：由于美国对伊朗的空袭可能引发霍尔木兹海峡关闭或其他伊朗报复行动的可能性增加，油价将上 涨。 ...

欧洲能源股因油价上涨而上涨 金十数据6月23日讯，随着油价攀升，欧洲能源股早盘走高。布伦特原油价格上涨1%，至每桶78.02美 元，并可能进一步上涨。市场观察人士正等着看伊朗如何回应美国。周末，美国对伊朗发动了一系列袭 击。IG Morning Call分析师写道，霍尔木兹海峡的关闭或中断可能会推动油价飙升至每桶100-110美 元。在伦敦股市，英国石油上涨1.5%，壳牌上涨0.8%，港湾能源上涨3%。法国道达尔上涨0.6%，西班 牙Repsol石油公司上涨1.1%，意大利埃尼集团持平。 布伦特原油 ...

在美国空袭伊朗核设施、油价走高之际，英国石油公司盘初股价上涨1.8%。 ...

新华财经纽约6月23日电（记者刘亚南） 美国对伊朗核设施实施打击后市场对伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海 峡的担忧刺激国际油价在开始新一周交易后显著走高。 高盛集团和美国咨询公司拉皮丹能源集团（Rapidan Energy Group）分析人士认为，如果霍尔木兹海峡 长时间被关闭，国际油价将突破每桶100美元。 拉皮丹能源集团总裁、曾担任美国前总统小布什能源顾问的鲍勃·麦克纳利（Bob McNally）表示，伊朗 方面可能对霍尔木兹海峡船运带来扰乱的时间可能比市场认为的要久得多。船运中断可能持续数周或数 月，而非像市场认为的美国海军可以在数小时或数天解决问题。 不过，有分析人士认为，如果伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡将带来自我伤害，伊朗也将无法通过这一海峡出口 原油。 盘面数据显示，8月份交货的纽约原油期货价格在北京时间23日6点开始交易后最高升至每桶78.4美元， 与20日收盘价相比涨幅达6.18%，但随后回落至接近每桶75美元的水平。8月份交货的布伦特原油期货 价格则突破每桶80美元关口，最高升至每桶81.4美元，涨幅达5.7%, 但随后回落至每桶79美元下方。 美国总统特朗普当地时间21日晚称，美军已"成功打击"并"彻底清 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. launched attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to heightened tensions in the region and potential long-term consequences for oil prices and global markets [1][3][4] - The Iranian parliament has suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route, which could significantly impact global oil supply [3][4] - Analysts predict that if oil transport through the Strait is severely disrupted, Brent crude prices could spike to $110 per barrel, with a potential reduction in Iranian oil supply of 1.75 million barrels per day pushing prices to $90 [4][5] Group 2 - The conflict has led to a surge in A-share military and shipping stocks, with notable gains in companies like Guohang Ocean and Shandong Molong [6][7] - Market analysts indicate that the ongoing conflict may not have a significant impact on Chinese assets, despite the volatility in oil prices and military tensions [6][7] - Historical analysis suggests that the market's response to Middle Eastern conflicts often results in increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, while oil prices remain influenced by supply and demand dynamics [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent military actions between the US and Iran have escalated tensions in the region, with significant implications for global oil prices and economic stability. Group 1: Military Actions and Responses - Over 125 US aircraft, including B-2 stealth bombers, were involved in the attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, indicating a serious military commitment from the US [1] - Iran launched a retaliatory strike using 40 missiles against multiple targets in Israel, including Ben Gurion International Airport and biological research facilities, showcasing Iran's military capabilities [3][4] - Iranian officials have condemned the US actions as a violation of international law and have threatened further military responses, including potential attacks on US military bases in the region [6][9][10] Group 2: Economic Implications - The conflict has raised concerns about the security of oil supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil transport, with about 20% of the world's oil supply passing through this route [2][15] - Brent crude oil prices have already increased by nearly 10% since the outbreak of the conflict, with expectations of further price hikes as markets reopen [2][15] - Analysts suggest that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices could surge above $130 per barrel, significantly impacting global economic growth and inflation [16] Group 3: Regional Reactions - The Houthis in Yemen have vowed to resume attacks on US vessels in the Red Sea in response to the US military actions against Iran, indicating a broader regional conflict [12][13] - The UK and Greece have advised their shipping industries to reassess routes through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz due to heightened threats, reflecting the global shipping industry's concerns [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience significant movements in the near future, with potential increases in oil prices, declines in stock markets, and rises in gold prices [1] Group 1 - The outlook for U.S. Treasury yields is uncertain, marking a notable change for long-term market observers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear facilities is expected to trigger an instinctive market reaction, leading to a rise in oil prices and an increase in risk aversion among investors as they assess the potential global economic impact of the escalating tensions [1] Group 1 - Investors anticipate that the initial market response will be panic, resulting in higher oil prices at the market opening [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the situation is expected to cast a shadow over the market, increasing volatility, particularly in the oil sector [1] - There is a belief that the U.S. citizens worldwide will face risks due to the military action, further contributing to market uncertainty [1]